A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[SoxnCycles]

Theo is the G.O.A.T. GM. no one comes close.

 

When DD was hired we all knew our Farm was toast. and that's exactly what happened. i'm glad Sale was one of the players brought in. here's hoping he kept just enough to obtain Giancarlo this offseason. if he didn't that will be his second biggest blunder. (signing Price will go down as the worst contract of all time).....

 

Price needs to have a stellar season next year (not that he'll be able to avoid at least one trip to the DL, with that elbow).

He needs a good season to opt out so we can be rid of him.

[moonslav59]

I understand why they let Robbie Ross go. He's coming off a serious injury and would have had a substantial arb cost. In some ways, Ross was our most consistent and effective pitcher from 2015 to 2016. He gave us 55+ innings both years. He walked a few too many guys to be an elite RP'er, but he filled a need very nicely for the Sox.

 

Good luck, Robbie.

 

OPS Against

2015 .729 (.649 v LHBs)

2016 .624 (.545 v LHBs)

 

[moonslav59]

Correct me if I'm wrong Kimmi, but I believe the 2017 team had a higher WAR from DD acquisitions than it did from Ben acquisitions.

 

Unless you're giving Ben credit for players like Mookie because he retained them. But in that case DD would also get credit.

 

Theo

5.3 Betts

3.2 Bogey

2.3 JBJ

1.9 Pedey

1.6 Vaz

1.0 Barnes

0.4 Lin

 

Ben

2.2 Beni

2.1 ERod

2.0 Porcello

0.9 Devers

0.7 Kelly

0.5 Hembree

0.3 Leon

 

DD

7.7 Sale

3.3 Kimbrel

3.1 Pom

1.5 Price

1.4 Fister

1.2 Nunez

0.4 Boyer'

0.3 Abad

0.3 Maddox

 

Now, one could argue that Ben traded away several big WAR Theo players and DD traded away many top prospects that Ben acquired in order to obtain many of our top WAR players.

[mvp 78]

Now, one could argue that Ben traded away several big WAR Theo players and DD traded away many top prospects that Ben acquired in order to obtain many of our top WAR players.

 

Which is why the exercise of parsing out who gets credit for which player is just silly. It's DD's team now, he gets the credit and blame.

[moonslav59]

Which is why the exercise of parsing out who gets credit for which player is just silly. It's DD's team now, he gets the credit and blame.

 

I see nothing wrong with giving past GMs credit for some of the new GMs successes and failures, but trying to quantify it is very subjective.

 

To me, I do not think making the Sale trade was all that difficult. Certainly, one could argue that Ben would not have done it. I get that, but there would have been no Sale trade without Moncada and Kopech- two Ben guys. Ben deserves some of the "credit" for DD having the resources to pull the trigger on that trade 9and others).

[Slasher9]

Price needs to have a stellar season next year (not that he'll be able to avoid at least one trip to the DL, with that elbow).

He needs a good season to opt out so we can be rid of him.

 

please let this happen. honestly i think he could win the Cy Young and would be smart enough to not opt out. no one on the planet would give him that contract except DD.

[Slasher9]

Which is why the exercise of parsing out who gets credit for which player is just silly. It's DD's team now, he gets the credit and blame.

 

Ben: 1 parade

DD: 0 parades

[Slasher9]

 

To me, I do not think making the Sale trade was all that difficult. .

the Sale trade was a no brainer. we said it at the time. you could put a monkey as GM for that day (or theo in an ape suit) and he would have made that trade.

[mvp 78]

Ben: 1 parade

DD: 0 parades

 

Ben: 3 last place finishes

DD: 0 last place finishes

[Bellhorn04]

The fact is that none of the other 28 GM's who could have potentially made a trade for Sale did so.

[FredLynn]

Price needs to have a stellar season next year (not that he'll be able to avoid at least one trip to the DL, with that elbow).

He needs a good season to opt out so we can be rid of him.

 

If Price has a stellar season next year and wins 20 games or whatever, nearly everyone on this forum is going to want him back and write about what a smart contract was offered to him. Such is the fickle nature of Sox fans. Its always "what have you done for me lately". And rightfully so.

[a700hitter]

If Price has a stellar season next year and wins 20 games or whatever, nearly everyone on this forum is going to want him back and write about what a smart contract was offered to him. Such is the fickle nature of Sox fans. Its always "what have you done for me lately". And rightfully so.

It's amazing that we sign one of the top talented starting pitchers in the game and fans want him to win the Cy Young so that he can opt out of his contract. Insanity. Then we can replace him with an inferior pitcher for more money.

[moonslav59]

It's amazing that we sign one of the top talented starting pitchers in the game and fans want him to win the Cy Young so that he can opt out of his contract. Insanity. Then we can replace him with an inferior pitcher for more money.

 

Assuming he has a big year, there's still a significant chance he falls short of his pay the last few years of his contract, even in open market FA dollars.

 

It's possible we could replace him with someone better at the same of less cot, if he ends up declining steeply after he opts out..

[a700hitter]

Assuming he has a big year, there's still a significant chance he falls short of his pay the last few years of his contract, even in open market FA dollars.

 

It's possible we could replace him with someone better at the same of less cot, if he ends up declining steeply after he opts out..

I don't see that happening. Anyone better than him will cost more than him. I doubt that he opts out unless he is fairly certain that he can get more money, so that would mean that the market is up.

[moonslav59]

I don't see that happening. Anyone better than him will cost more than him. I doubt that he opts out unless he is fairly certain that he can get more money, so that would mean that the market is up.

 

The vast majority of big FA signings end up being big disappointments- many from day one.

 

I'm not sure I'd use the word "amazing" to think some people feel Price might end up being one, too.

 

I agree, if he does well enough to opt out, then it will be hard to replace him "in kind", but maybe we get someone younger or without the threat of his arm falling off. Of course, such a pitcher will cost more or not be as good. I get your argument.

[cp176]

Which is why the exercise of parsing out who gets credit for which player is just silly. It's DD's team now, he gets the credit and blame.

 

Amen

[a700hitter]

The vast majority of big FA signings end up being big disappointments- many from day one.

 

I'm not sure I'd use the word "amazing" to think some people feel Price might end up being one, too.

 

I agree, if he does well enough to opt out, then it will be hard to replace him "in kind", but maybe we get someone younger or without the threat of his arm falling off. Of course, such a pitcher will cost more or not be as good. I get your argument.

I'd prefer to trade Price at some point during his contract, maybe to get back a big bat. In order for that to happen, Price would have to have a full healthy season in 2018 and Price would have to elect to not opt out.

[moonslav59]

For argument's sake, let's say the Sox can spend $45M a year on free agents this year,

and any free agent would sign with us, if we offered what MLBTR projects their offer to be, who would you sign?

 

Complete list:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

$25M/yr and $150M/6 JD Martinez

$13M/yr and $39M/3 J Bruce

 

$22M/yr and $132M/6 Hosmer

$15M/yr and $45M/3 Santana

$12M/yr and $36M/3 Morrison

 

$17M/yr and $85M/5 Moustakas

 

$21M/yr and $42M/2 Cozart

 

$26.7M/yr and $160M/6 Darvish

$25M/yr and $100M/4 Arrieta

$20M/yr and $100M/5 Tanaka

$14M/yr and $56M/4 L Lynn

$12.5M/yr and $50M/4 G Holland

 

$12M/yr and $60M/5 Wade Davis

$7M/yr and $21M/3 Bryan Shaw

 

Red= MLBTR projected landing place

 

I like the JD Martinez, Morrison, Shaw idea ($44M) , but I wonder if this would be better:

 

$17M Moustakas

$15M Santana

$7M Shaw

$6M J Dyson (OF)

 

Edited November 3, 2017 by moonslav59

[Slasher9]

Ben: 3 last place finishes

DD: 0 last place finishes

parade + 3 5th place finishes > Division Round flameouts

[Slasher9]

The fact is that none of the other 28 GM's who could have potentially made a trade for Sale did so.

 

are you saying it wasnt a no brainer that a monkey would have done?

[Slasher9]

it's amazing that we sign one of the top talented starting pitchers in the game and fans want him to win the cy young so that he can opt out of his contract. Insanity. Then we can replace him with an inferior pitcher for more money.

 

babip!!!

[Slasher9]

5 MORE YEARS AT $31mm PER and you think he will be worth it and hard to replace? i pray he opts out. will never never ever happen though. even if he goes 30-0 with a 0.79 ERA this season. not a CHANCE he opts out. no one is going to give a 33 YO SP a 5 year $155MM contract.

george steinbrenner is dead.

Edited November 3, 2017 by Slasher9

[Bellhorn04]

are you saying it wasnt a no brainer that a monkey would have done?

 

Our monkey beat the other 28 monkeys to the punch, so he gets bananas for that.

[SoxnCycles]

please let this happen. honestly i think he could win the Cy Young and would be smart enough to not opt out. no one on the planet would give him that contract except DD.

 

Good point.

I just want his crappy attitude and weak-ass elbow to fail on some other team, not this one.

[Kimmi]

Correct me if I'm wrong Kimmi, but I believe the 2017 team had a higher WAR from DD acquisitions than it did from Ben acquisitions.

 

Unless you're giving Ben credit for players like Mookie because he retained them. But in that case DD would also get credit.

 

No, you're correct. I did say that this is still largely a Theo/Ben team. I give Ben some of the credit for Theo's acquisitions because Ben was Theo's right hand man. Also, Ben (and Theo) get some credit for any players that Dombrowski acquired by trading away their prospects.

[Kimmi]

Ben: 1 parade

DD: 0 parades

 

!!!

[Kimmi]

parade + 3 5th place finishes > Division Round flameouts

 

A bird in the hand...

[notin]

For argument's sake, let's say the Sox can spend $45M a year on free agents this year,

and any free agent would sign with us, if we offered what MLBTR projects their offer to be, who would you sign?

 

Complete list:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

$25M/yr and $150M/6 JD Martinez

$13M/yr and $39M/3 J Bruce

 

$22M/yr and $132M/6 Hosmer

$15M/yr and $45M/3 Santana

$12M/yr and $36M/3 Morrison

 

$17M/yr and $85M/5 Moustakas

 

$21M/yr and $42M/2 Cozart

 

$26.7M/yr and $160M/6 Darvish

$25M/yr and $100M/4 Arrieta

$20M/yr and $100M/5 Tanaka

$14M/yr and $56M/4 L Lynn

$12.5M/yr and $50M/4 G Holland

 

$12M/yr and $60M/5 Wade Davis

$7M/yr and $21M/3 Bryan Shaw

 

Red= MLBTR projected landing place

 

I like the JD Martinez, Morrison, Shaw idea ($44M) , but I wonder if this would be better:

 

$17M Moustakas

$15M Santana

$7M Shaw

$6M J Dyson (OF)

 

 

Where would the Sox play Morrison? They're going to spend $36mill to prevent save $22mill on Hanley's option? Not likely. And let's not pretend Morrison is the solution to inconsistent offense at 1b. If anything, that's his calling card.

 

The best course of action for the Sox is to avoid all these Option Year Heroes like Morrison, Duda and Alonso. Maybe one of them can build on last yer, but most likely all revert to well-paid mediocrity.

 

I can see the Sox signing JD Martinez. There is an obvious Dombrowski connection. He has the power they need. He hired Boras. which no one does if they intend to re-sign for anything less than maximum money. But in two short off-seasons, Dombrowski has also been fairly reticent in the free agent market. Granted, he has a past history of spending like a drunken sailor. But in Boston, his only splurge has been Price, who has given mixed results.

 

Also with Martinez, there is the issue of position. The Sox have an excellent OF. They have a DH who will probably break if he takes the field too often. Would Martinez move to 1b? Suggesting he goes there if he doesn't want to will likely steer him to another team. It's his choice. And he might go for a team that needs an outfielder.

 

While no one likes Eric Hosmer, if I were a predicting man (and I am, although not always a good one) I would say he is the Sox focus. I know he lacks home run pop. And the Sox really need it. They were 15th in the AL last year in home runs, and a distant 15th at that. The 18 home runs they trailed the White Sox was BY FAR the largest gap between any two adjacent teams on the list.

 

But the Sox were sixth in the AL in runs scored. While not all that impressive on its own, it does mean they outscored NINE teams - or 60% of the American League - that hit more home runs than they did. If nothing else, this should be a reminder that home runs are not the only way to score.

 

So, the question then becomes, are the Sox a better overall team with Hosmer (4.1 fWAR) in place of Moreland (0.9 fWAR)? Or Martinez (3.8 fWAR) in place of Moreland? Not a team with more home runs, but a better team?

 

I wonder if it might be time to start liking Eric Hosmer?

[bowman]

Just what we don't need is another guy with no pop. Start with JD and go from there...

[notin]

Just what we don't need is another guy with no pop. Start with JD and go from there...

 

Home runs are not always the answer. 26 teams outhomered the Sox this year, but only 4 teams won more games.

 

Power should help, but this is a pitching-first team. Especially if everyone is healthy.

 

Martinez would be a nice add for a while, but in three years everyone will want to dump his contract. Hosmer? Certainly less exciting. But he does have age and position on his side.

 

Dombrowski will sign Hosmer. You know it to be true. We all do...