A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

Moustakas is another flawed case. He had negative marks in 2017 defensively. His entire offensive game is a minus aside from power, and he just happened to explode power wise in his walk year. Previous career high in HR of 22, he jumps to 38 last year. Buyer beware on him. The 4 FAs I’d be very reticent to chase are Hosmer, Cobb, Moustakas and Cozart

[oldtimer]

Moustakas is another flawed case. He had negative marks in 2017 defensively. His entire offensive game is a minus aside from power, and he just happened to explode power wise in his walk year. Previous career high in HR of 22, he jumps to 38 last year. Buyer beware on him. The 4 FAs I’d be very reticent to chase are Hosmer, Cobb, Moustakas and Cozart

 

Hidden meaning? The Yankees probably want some of them!

[oldtimer]

For those who do not like Mostakas, because you want to wait for Machado next year, how's this?

 

Sign Machado next year and move Moustakas to 1B and Devers to DH.

 

 

Devers is too young to give up on his defense. It will improve, the question is "How much"? Anyway, I would expect 1st base might be a landing place for him while we will need to move someone else to dh.

[notin]

Ju

Moustakas is another flawed case. He had negative marks in 2017 defensively. His entire offensive game is a minus aside from power, and he just happened to explode power wise in his walk year. Previous career high in HR of 22, he jumps to 38 last year. Buyer beware on him. The 4 FAs I’d be very reticent to chase are Hosmer, Cobb, Moustakas and Cozart

 

Moustakas' has only once had negative marks defensively, and that was one year after knee surgery.

 

His power output, per Rotographs, has been a very real progression.

 

His downside is he doesn't walk much.

 

I like Moustakas but I doubt the Sox sign him.

[OH FOY]

Funny we look at walks to sign a FA, not career .251 career batting average. I would never be a good GM, I want hitters. Walks would be nice but, not my #1 priority. Especially if I'm blowing 17+ Million a year.

17+ million could be used in other areas this year, since we have a 3rd baseman for this year.

Edited November 5, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Funny we look at walks to sign a FA, not career .251 career batting average. I would never be a good GM, I want hitters. Walks would be nice but, not my #1 priority. Especially if I'm blowing 17+ Million a year.

 

BA alone doesn't really tell us much.

 

Giancarlo Stanton's career BA is .268.

Brock Holt's career BA is .265.

[OH FOY]

For those who do not like Mostakas, because you want to wait for Machado next year, how's this?

 

Sign Machado next year and move Moustakas to 1B and Devers to DH.

 

 

Moustakas will get QO, not good enough to have penalties put on us, Machado different story.

[OH FOY]

BA alone doesn't really tell us much.

 

Giancarlo Stanton's career BA is .268.

Brock Holt's career BA is .265.

 

Right. Been watching Baseball since 1960 I'm stupid. You got me on that one.

[notin]

BA alone doesn't really tell us much.

 

Giancarlo Stanton's career BA is .268.

Brock Holt's career BA is .265.

 

So they're both basically the same hitter...

[notin]

Funny we look at walks to sign a FA, not career .251 career batting average. I would never be a good GM, I want hitters. Walks would be nice but, not my #1 priority. Especially if I'm blowing 17+ Million a year.

17+ million could be used in other areas this year, since we have a 3rd baseman for this year.

 

Is THAT what you got out of the post?

[Kimmi]

We have too many holes to fill them all with high quality players.

 

We have no clean-up hitter.

 

We have no 1Bman.

 

We have a banged up DH.

 

We have a poor fielding 3Bman that might be better at 1B.

 

We need a RP'er.

 

We have ERod starting 2018 on the 60 man DL and Wright as our best hope as the #5.

 

I'm not thrilled with our 4 guys who can play 2B, but at least we have 4 to choose from.

 

I'll choose Hernandez/Holt/Lin/Marrero at 2B over Travis at 1B/Clean-up.

 

I'll choose Hernandez, so we can sign a 4th OF'er or RP'er or SP'er.

 

Sure, if Henry opens his wallet really wide, we can add a quality 2Bman, too, but to me 2B depth is not a top 3 or 4 priority this winter. It might be our #5 priority. I guess I might not argue to much, if someone says it's our #4 priority, but to me we have 3 clear needs ahead of 2B, and it's easier to find a Nunez mid season than a Martinez, Moustakas, Santana, Bryan Shaw or quality mid rotation starter.

 

 

I don't think that we have 'too many holes' to fill. Again, I think our team looks pretty good as is.

 

I am surprised that no one seems to be concerned with the potential health of our starting rotation. If our rotation is healthy, they should be one of the top rotations in baseball. If ERod does not bounce back from his surgery as quickly or as strongly as expected, and/or if Price has significant elbow issues again, then that paints a whole different light on our rotation. After this past season, I do not have a lot of confidence in Price making it through next season without spending a lot of time on the DL.

 

I would look for a #2/3 type pitcher on a relatively short contract (easier said than done, I know), and sign JD Martinez, and call it a day outside of tweaks to the pen and the bench. In both cases of the pitcher and JD, I would offer more money per year to get fewer years.

 

Honestly, if Dombrowski did nothing this offseason, I would expect the Sox to be back in the playoffs.

[Kimmi]

So they're both basically the same hitter...

 

Because I never miss the opportunity to put a plug in for advanced stats, this is why we need analytics!

[Bellhorn04]

Right. Been watching Baseball since 1960 I'm stupid. You got me on that one.

 

I really didn't mean to imply you were stupid, sorry if it came across that way.

[cp176]

Right. Been watching Baseball since 1960 I'm stupid. You got me on that one.

 

It is ok Oh Foy - You will likely also be told that in addition to batting average, things like ERA, wins and losses,saves, etc. have limited use in today's analytical world. You get to decide. Personally I still think that each individual stat does have some significance. When all else fails, I still actually believe what I see.

[notin]

It is ok Oh Foy - You will likely also be told that in addition to batting average, things like ERA, wins and losses,saves, etc. have limited use in today's analytical world. You get to decide. Personally I still think that each individual stat does have some significance. When all else fails, I still actually believe what I see.

 

Saves have very little relevance. Ditto wins.

[moonslav59]

Moustakas is another flawed case. He had negative marks in 2017 defensively. His entire offensive game is a minus aside from power, and he just happened to explode power wise in his walk year. Previous career high in HR of 22, he jumps to 38 last year. Buyer beware on him. The 4 FAs I’d be very reticent to chase are Hosmer, Cobb, Moustakas and Cozart

 

I realize Moose is very risky, but I'd rather have his defense at 3B than Devers. Then, when you look at Hosmer as "the other option", the defense looks horrible:

 

Devers at 3B and this at 1B?

D. R. S. : -12

UXR/150: -42.3 (OUCH!!!!)

 

Moose:

D. R. S.: -3

UXR/150: + 5.3

 

Yes, 2017 might be an outlier for Moose, but look at Hosmer's 2017. better yet, throw out 2017 and look at 2015-2016:

 

WAR

4,4 Moose (in almost half the PAs!)

3.3 Hoze

 

wRC+

121 Moose

113 Hoze

 

OPS

.815 Moose

.792 Hoze

(By the way, .815 would have led the Sox in OPS this year.)

 

BAbip

.281 Moose

.319 Hoze

 

The area Moose falls short in vs Hoze:

OBP

.346 Hoze

.340 Moose

 

Maybe 2017 was an outlier for Moose, but he still compares favorably to Moose in the previous two years.

 

Plus, we need power.

2015-2016 ISO:

.198 Moose

.164 Hoze

 

I'll take Moose over Hoze anyday and everyday.

 

Our defense improves greatly at 3B and gets slightly worse at 1B. (If HRam can play 1B and Devers DH, then our defense is greatly improved over adding Hoze.)

 

The offense is better, especially if you factor power as more important.

 

The cost per year will be cheaper.

 

The years should be shorter.

 

Moose over Hoze is a no-brainer to me, although these two are not the only two choices. Santana or JD are other options, but they have some downsides as well.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Devers is too young to give up on his defense.

 

He's too bad to hope for substantial improvement "on the job" during a run for a ring season or two.

 

If we can get a great 1Bman, I'm fine with poor left side IF defense, but I don't see and great FA first basemen.

 

Think of how great Devers did for us on offense this year in 58 games. If we projected him to 145 games, his WAR would have only been 2.4 due mostly to his -12.7 UZR/150. Now, 2.4 is a massive improvement over Pablito & Co., but if we have a chance to use his skills in a better way, and we have a strong sense of immediate urgency while "the window" remains oipen, I'm not sure we can fiddle around hoping Devers miraculously jumps to average defense over one winter. The Sox organization has been working overtime on his defense for years. I think it is unrealistic to think he'll be even okay next year on defense.

 

[notin]

Not having a Pedroia replacement is stupid. Pedey’s surgery has a notoriously high fail rate, to the point where there’s good literature out there that the orthopods should stop offering it. I have said many times on here. You need to expect that Pedroia and ERod are out for the year. If they come back sooner than that and prove to be healthy, then bonus

 

And what do you expect us to do about it?

 

I've contacted Brandon Phillips, but he hasn't gotten back to me yet...

[moonslav59]

Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59

 

We have too many holes to fill them all with high quality players.

 

We have no clean-up hitter.

 

We have no 1Bman.

 

We have a banged up DH.

 

We have a poor fielding 3Bman that might be better at 1B.

 

We need a RP'er.

 

We have ERod starting 2018 on the 60 man DL and Wright as our best hope as the #5.

 

I'm not thrilled with our 4 guys who can play 2B, but at least we have 4 to choose from.

 

I'll choose Hernandez/Holt/Lin/Marrero at 2B over Travis at 1B/Clean-up.

 

I'll choose Hernandez, so we can sign a 4th OF'er or RP'er or SP'er.

 

Sure, if Henry opens his wallet really wide, we can add a quality 2Bman, too, but to me 2B depth is not a top 3 or 4 priority this winter. It might be our #5 priority. I guess I might not argue to much, if someone says it's our #4 priority, but to me we have 3 clear needs ahead of 2B, and it's easier to find a Nunez mid season than a Martinez, Moustakas, Santana, Bryan Shaw or quality mid rotation starter.

 

Kimmi's response:

 

I don't think that we have 'too many holes' to fill. Again, I think our team looks pretty good as is.

 

Maybe all of the holes I listed above are not urgent, but I do not think I'm inventing concerns.

 

 

I am surprised that no one seems to be concerned with the potential health of our starting rotation.

 

Look above. I placed our need for a SP'er as higher than our need for a 2Bman. It is a priority, even if just to add depth in the shape of 5/6 starters.

 

 

If our rotation is healthy, they should be one of the top rotations in baseball. If ERod does not bounce back from his surgery as quickly or as strongly as expected, and/or if Price has significant elbow issues again, then that paints a whole different light on our rotation. After this past season, I do not have a lot of confidence in Price making it through next season without spending a lot of time on the DL.

 

I can see us signing a new Fister type of two and hoping they carry us until ERod returns. If he doesn't, we'll look for a starter at the deadline.

 

 

I would look for a #2/3 type pitcher on a relatively short contract (easier said than done, I know), and sign JD Martinez, and call it a day outside of tweaks to the pen and the bench. In both cases of the pitcher and JD, I would offer more money per year to get fewer years.

 

I'd be fine with that. I might try to add Bryan Shaw and look to trade the likes of Hembree, Swihart and Johnson for a better 6th starter.

 

 

Honestly, if Dombrowski did nothing this offseason, I would expect the Sox to be back in the playoffs.

 

Agreed, but as a wild card with worse odds at winning it all than we had this year.

 

The window will be closing soon.

 

I think DD is going to look for ways to make us top 3-4 favorites.

 

I hope our farm does not suffer as a result, and we can fill our needs through free agency, but I'm not sure what sort of spending budget Henry is giving DD this winter.

 

[sk7326]

If the window closes in 2 seasons it is because the Red Sox chose not to serve their fans properly.

[moonslav59]

If the window closes in 2 seasons it is because the Red Sox chose not to serve their fans properly.

 

That's the big debate. How much do you try for continued balance? How much do we give up on some of the future, when you feel you are close but not close enough to win a ring right now?

 

I can see both sides of the argument as having merit, and I'm happy we at least built for a 3-4 year window, instead of a 1-2 year window like some plans end up being.

 

I love competing every year, but I also come from the era that witnessed countless heart breaks of having great teams but just not great enough to win a ring. I remember thinking and saying, "Just give me one ring, and I'll take 10 last place finishes!" Of course, once we won one ring, I did not wish for 10 last place finishes. When we won our second ring in 2007, I got spoiled. Winning rungs is better than coming close but falling short 10 years in a row.

 

I'd love to strike a balance, and I'm willing to have a couple losing seasons, if it means we are working towards being very highly competitive afterwards, and I truly believe Ben & Co. we moving us in the direction. I'd have preferred to let the 5 year plan play out, but now that we've changed the focus to a 3-4 year window, I'm not for changing the plan again and coming up short on both fronts.

 

I hope we go for broke this winter without sacrificing some more of the future. I'm not sure that doable.

 

[a700hitter]

If the window closes in 2 seasons it is because the Red Sox chose not to serve their fans properly.

Agreed. We have a young team with a ton of talent. We just need one top long ball hitter going forward.

[cp176]

If the window closes in 2 seasons it is because the Red Sox chose not to serve their fans properly.

 

And therein lies the rub for even the most diehard cliff believing DD disliking folks out there. Is it even conceiveable if the franchise remains in the same hands? I think not. I am really looking forward to the next decade of Red Sox success.

[moonslav59]

It gets hard to stay competitive, when you have to sign free agents to replace arb guys making $10-20M but producing like $25-35M players.

 

When you have little on the farm to provide a continuous low cost -high productivity infusion, you back yourself in a hole.

 

I like our recent drafts and international signings. I have hopes enough can and will fill some key openings, so we can reduce our dependency on big free agent signings, but clearly we have much less to choose from now than we did 1-2 years ago. That has to make a difference 2-3 years from now and extending far beyond. Denying all this, to me, is being overly optimistic.

 

[Bellhorn04]

The system is designed more and more to make it difficult to stay on top for long. That's just the way it is. Bud Selig wanted parity because the more fans you have thinking their team has a shot at glory, the more money flows into MLB coffers.

[sk7326]

That's the big debate. How much do you try for continued balance? How much do we give up on some of the future, when you feel you are close but not close enough to win a ring right now?

 

I can see both sides of the argument as having merit, and I'm happy we at least built for a 3-4 year window, instead of a 1-2 year window like some plans end up being.

 

I love competing every year, but I also come from the era that witnessed countless heart breaks of having great teams but just not great enough to win a ring. I remember thinking and saying, "Just give me one ring, and I'll take 10 last place finishes!" Of course, once we won one ring, I did not wish for 10 last place finishes. When we won our second ring in 2007, I got spoiled. Winning rungs is better than coming close but falling short 10 years in a row.

 

I'd love to strike a balance, and I'm willing to have a couple losing seasons, if it means we are working towards being very highly competitive afterwards, and I truly believe Ben & Co. we moving us in the direction. I'd have preferred to let the 5 year plan play out, but now that we've changed the focus to a 3-4 year window, I'm not for changing the plan again and coming up short on both fronts.

 

I hope we go for broke this winter without sacrificing some more of the future. I'm not sure that doable.

 

 

They charge fans more than virtually any other team ... that is my answer.

 

Winning rings is better than just missing 10 years in a row. But baseball affords almost no control of winning vs just missing. If you can make the tournament 8 years out of 10, that is 8 legitimate chances to win the title. Baseball is not like the NCAA Tournament where MD-Eastern Shore is happy to be there to be a first round speed bump for Kansas or Duke. You make the draw - you can just get hot for a month and presto. In a world where in my lifetime, an 83-78 team and an 85-77 team won the whole thing, the only thing a team builder can do is give his team a swing at winning the 11-12 games.

[sk7326]

It gets hard to stay competitive, when you have to sign free agents to replace arb guys making $10-20M but producing like $25-35M players.

 

When you have little on the farm to provide a continuous low cost -high productivity infusion, you back yourself in a hole.

 

I like our recent drafts and international signings. I have hopes enough can and will fill some key openings, so we can reduce our dependency on big free agent signings, but clearly we have much less to choose from now than we did 1-2 years ago. That has to make a difference 2-3 years from now and extending far beyond. Denying all this, to me, is being overly optimistic.

 

 

Every team will go through that. If there is a legitimate cliff in 2 years where none of a wildly high revenue team's core is even 28 then it raises questions about what the heck this is all for.

[moonslav59]

Every team will go through that. If there is a legitimate cliff in 2 years where none of a wildly high revenue team's core is even 28 then it raises questions about what the heck this is all for.

 

It's not about age: it's about years of team control.

 

It's about higher and higher arb costs and the high cost or replacing or keeping most of our young stars and vets before or when they become free agents.

 

We have a lot of our key players reaching free agency or high arb salaries in a very narrow time frame. Without a stocked farm, the cost is going to be enormous to keep our stars or replace them "in kind".

 

We like to point at losing HRam's contract in 2019 or 2020 and Pablo's in 2020 ($5M buyout in 2021) as being enough to keep us strong, but I doubt it. Look how hard it is to sign free agents this winter, and we haven't even lost anyone of great value to free agency.

 

Players reaching free agency:

 

After 2018:

Pomeranz

Kimbrel

Kelly

(Maybe HRam)

 

After 2019:

Sale

Bogey

Holt & Thornburg

 

After 2020:

Betts

JBJ

Vazquez

Leon

Smith

Workman

Wright

 

(Note: last arb year will be more costly than the year before.)

 

There's not a lot of dead weight lost here. Almost all will cost way more to keep or replace in kind than they will in their final year here.

 

2021

Price $31M

Pedey $13.75M

Assuming a $210-220M budget, who can and should we keep with the $150M left over after the two we have locked up? Also, Beni & ERod will be in their last arb year and Devers will be arb eligible, so they will eat some of that $150M.

 

My priorities look about like this at this moment in time:

 

Betts

Sale

JBJ

Pom or the like

Bogey or the like

Kimbrel or the like

Vazquez

 

The ones we don't keep, what prospect takes their places?

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Is this a possibility?

 

Sign JD Martinez (LF)- move Beni to CF.

Trade JBJ, Travis and Hembree for Carrasco

Sign Santana (1B)

Sign Bryan Shaw (RP)

 

1. Bogey SS

2, Betts RF

3. Beni CF

4. Martinez LF

5. Santana 1B

6. Devers 3B

7. HRam DH

8. Hernandez>Pedey 2B

9. Vaz

Bench: Leon, Lin, Brentz & Holt (Swihart, Marrero)

 

SP: Sale, Price, Pom, Carrasco, Porcello, Wright/Johnson (Velazquez/Elias/Beeks/Haley)

RP: Kimbrel, Shaw, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Maddox, Workman/Scott/Thornburg (Taylor/Martin)

[sk7326]

It's not about age: it's about years of team control.

 

It's about higher and higher arb costs and the high cost or replacing or keeping most of our young stars and vets before or when they become free agents.

 

We have a lot of our key players reaching free agency or high arb salaries in a very narrow time frame. Without a stocked farm, the cost is going to be enormous to keep our stars or replace them "in kind".

 

We like to point at losing HRam's contract in 2019 or 2020 and Pablo's in 2020 ($5M buyout in 2021) as being enough to keep us strong, but I doubt it. Look how hard it is to sign free agents this winter, and we haven't even lost anyone of great value to free agency.

 

Players reaching free agency:

 

After 2018:

Pomeranz

Kimbrel

Kelly

(Maybe HRam)

 

After 2019:

Sale

Bogey

Holt & Thornburg

 

After 2020:

Betts

JBJ

Vazquez

Leon

Smith

Workman

Wright

 

(Note: last arb year will be more costly than the year before.)

 

There's not a lot of dead weight lost here. Almost all will cost way more to keep or replace in kind than they will in their final year here.

 

2021

Price $31M

Pedey $13.75M

Assuming a $210-220M budget, who can and should we keep with the $150M left over after the two we have locked up? Also, Beni & ERod will be in their last arb year and Devers will be arb eligible, so they will eat some of that $150M.

 

My priorities look about like this at this moment in time:

 

Betts

Sale

JBJ

Pom or the like

Bogey or the like

Kimbrel or the like

Vazquez

 

The ones we don't keep, what prospect takes their places?

 

 

 

 

 

 

If a team built with Betts, Benintendi, Devers and a ginormous pile of money cannot keep a contender going - then somebody is doing it wrong. Nobody argues that decisions have to be made - I am certainly not arguing keeping this team together until Bradley is 37. But letting 27-28 year old Top 20 players walk on principle is not what fans should have to expect. If you are defining a cliff by "oh bother, look at all these decisions - I guess we'll be a 70 win team in 2021" - then that doesn't make any sense.