A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

Where would the Sox play Morrison? They're going to spend $36mill to prevent save $22mill on Hanley's option? Not likely. And let's not pretend Morrison is the solution to inconsistent offense at 1b. If anything, that's his calling card.

 

The best course of action for the Sox is to avoid all these Option Year Heroes like Morrison, Duda and Alonso. Maybe one of them can build on last yer, but most likely all revert to well-paid mediocrity.

 

I can see the Sox signing JD Martinez. There is an obvious Dombrowski connection. He has the power they need. He hired Boras. which no one does if they intend to re-sign for anything less than maximum money. But in two short off-seasons, Dombrowski has also been fairly reticent in the free agent market. Granted, he has a past history of spending like a drunken sailor. But in Boston, his only splurge has been Price, who has given mixed results.

 

Also with Martinez, there is the issue of position. The Sox have an excellent OF. They have a DH who will probably break if he takes the field too often. Would Martinez move to 1b? Suggesting he goes there if he doesn't want to will likely steer him to another team. It's his choice. And he might go for a team that needs an outfielder.

 

While no one likes Eric Hosmer, if I were a predicting man (and I am, although not always a good one) I would say he is the Sox focus. I know he lacks home run pop. And the Sox really need it. They were 15th in the AL last year in home runs, and a distant 15th at that. The 18 home runs they trailed the White Sox was BY FAR the largest gap between any two adjacent teams on the list.

 

But the Sox were sixth in the AL in runs scored. While not all that impressive on its own, it does mean they outscored NINE teams - or 60% of the American League - that hit more home runs than they did. If nothing else, this should be a reminder that home runs are not the only way to score.

 

So, the question then becomes, are the Sox a better overall team with Hosmer (4.1 fWAR) in place of Moreland (0.9 fWAR)? Or Martinez (3.8 fWAR) in place of Moreland? Not a team with more home runs, but a better team?

 

I wonder if it might be time to start liking Eric Hosmer?

 

I can see why Hosmer is high on some people's lists, but I am hoping and praying we do NOT sign him. He will get too many years, and he doesn't have a long enough history of doing 2017 well.

 

Too risky. Santana has a longer history of doing very well and rates to get maybe half the years as well as less per year.

 

BTW, MLBTR projects Duda getting $6M/1- about what Moreland got.

 

[moonslav59]

Home runs are not always the answer.26 teams outhomered the Sox, but only 4 teams won more games.

 

Power could help, but this is a pitching-first team. Especially if everyone is healthy.

 

Martinez would be a nice add for a while, but in three years everyone will want to dump his contract. Hosmer? Certainly less exciting. But he does have age and position on his side.

 

Dombrowski will sign Hosmer. You know it to be true. We all do...

 

Deep down, I do "feel it", and it's making me physically sick-- maybe it's just all the Halloween candy.

 

Signing JD quickly would greatly lessen the chances Hosmer is signed.

 

Come on DD- get JD day one!!!!

[moonslav59]

Tanaka decides to stay with the Yanks- does not opt out.

[notin]

I can see why Hosmer is high on some people's lists, but I am hoping and praying we do NOT sign him. He will get too many years, and he doesn't have a long enough history of doing 2017 well.

 

Too risky. Santana has a longer history of doing very well and rates to get maybe half the years as well as less per year.

 

BTW, MLBTR projects Duda getting $6M/1- about what Moreland got.

 

 

Santana would be my choice, too, all things considered. But I don't have the history of signing "best available" like Dombrowski does.

 

I actually don't want JD Martinez - although I see the appeal - because I want to keep all three outfielders as they are. They're part of what kept our pitching so good with terrific defense. The worst glove out there was Benintendi, and in no way should he be moved.

 

And putting Martinez at 1B/DH? I love the consistent logic there. Suggest moving Devers to first and people are all up in arms. "Moving Devers to first is crazy!!! Let's sign JD Martinez and put him at first. A much better idea!! He has NEVER played the infield in his entire professional career!! And probably hasn't fielded a ground ball since high school!!! He's the perfect fit!!"

 

I'm all for moving an inexperienced guy to first, but I think having some infield experience helps. I also hate 6+ year megadeals for players over 30. Unless there is an early opt out.

 

On an unrelated note, I will say, I do love the MLBTR prediction that the Sox sign Bryan Shaw...

[notin]

Deep down, I do "feel it", and it's making me physically sick-- maybe it's just all the Halloween candy.

 

Signing JD quickly would greatly lessen the chances Hosmer is signed.

 

Come on DD- get JD day one!!!!

 

Signing JD quickly or even late in the offseason will not lessen the chances Hosmer signs with Boston. It will negate them completely.

 

I'm not even bullish on Hosmer. He is a good player who does almost everything well, but really doesn't excel at anything. I hope he doesn't sign in Boston, because his age makes his contract potentially frightening. Think Jason Heyward 2.0. And then ask a Cubs' fan how that one is working out..

[notin]

Tanaka decides to stay with the Yanks- does not opt out.

 

His agent must not speak Japanese very well. You KNOW he was pushing him heavily to do it...

[moonslav59]

Santana would be my choice, too, all things considered. But I don't have the history of signing "best available" like Dombrowski does.

 

I actually don't want JD Martinez - although I see the appeal - because I want to keep all three outfielders as they are. They're part of what kept our pitching so good with terrific defense. The worst glove out there was Benintendi, and in no way should he be moved.

 

And putting Martinez at 1B/DH? I love the consistent logic there. Suggest moving Devers to first and people are all up in arms. "Moving Devers to first is crazy!!! Let's sign JD Martinez and put him at first. A much better idea!! He has NEVER played the infield in his entire professional career!! And probably hasn't fielded a ground ball since high school!!! He's the perfect fit!!"

 

I'm all for moving an inexperienced guy to first, but I think having some infield experience helps. I also hate 6+ year megadeals for players over 30. Unless there is an early opt out.

 

On an unrelated note, I will say, I do love the MLBTR prediction that the Sox sign Bryan Shaw...

 

Shaw would be a nice signing.

 

JBJ is one of my favorite players, and I'd hate to trade him, but if the return was good enough, then getting JD makes more sense.

 

6 years is a lot though. Of all these players, I kind of think Santana or Moustakas is the best for the money & years.

 

$25M/yr and $150M/6 JD Martinez

$22M/yr and $132M/6 Hosmer

$21M/yr and $42M/2 Cozart

$17M/yr and $85M/5 Moustakas

$15M/yr and $45M/3 Santana

$12M/yr and $36M/3 Morrison

 

 

 

[notin]

Shaw would be a nice signing.

 

JBJ is one of my favorite players, and I'd hate to trade him, but if the return was good enough, then getting JD makes more sense.

 

6 years is a lot though. Of all these players, I kind of think Santana or Moustakas is the best for the money & years.

 

$25M/yr and $150M/6 JD Martinez

$22M/yr and $132M/6 Hosmer

$21M/yr and $42M/2 Cozart

$17M/yr and $85M/5 Moustakas

$15M/yr and $45M/3 Santana

$12M/yr and $36M/3 Morrison

 

 

 

 

If those are the prices, we should get Santana. And it isn't even a close choice.

 

Morrison is a joke at that pricetag. The guy just spent 7 years as a league average hitter. Any guesses what he will be for the next three? And to make it even worse, for $3mill more you can have Santana? Avoid Option Year Heroes at all costs.

[moonslav59]

What's the better plan?

 

$17M x 5 Moustakas (Move Devers to 1B)

$12M x 4 Alex Cobb

$7M x 3 Bryan Shaw

$6M x 2 Jarrod Dyson

 

or

 

$15M x 3 Santana

$12M x 4 Akex Cobb

$7M x 3 Bryan Shaw

$7M x 2 E Nunez

 

[Larry Cook]

What does desperate dave do if we someone else steps up and signs Martinez?

[moonslav59]

What does desperate dave do if we someone else steps up and signs Martinez?

 

See the post right before yours.

 

Just don't make Hosmer your plan B.

[moonslav59]

1) Trade JBJ for prospects & Trade prospects for Stanton ($18M to luxury tax).

2) Sign Santana $15M x 3

3) Sign Bryan Shaw $7M x 3

 

1) Bogey SS

2) Betts RF

3) Beni CF

4) Stanton LF

5) Santana 1B

6) Devers 3B

7) HRam DH

8) Pedey 2B

9) Vaz C

 

[moonslav59]

Some interesting numbers from 2014-2017:

(198 players with 1500 PAs)

ISO

.301 Stanton (1st)

.274 JD Martinez (4th)

.242 Lucas Duda (13th)

.224 Jose Abreu (24th)

.221 Todd Frazier (26th)

.220 Jay Bruce (27th)

.201 Mike Moustakas (46th)

.199 Santana (50th)

.196 Morrison (52nd)

.187 Moreland (64th)

.160 Hosmer (115th)

 

OPS

4. Stanton .939

7. JD Martinez .936

16. J Abreu .883

40. L Duda .818

48. Santana .808

53. Hosmer .799

 

 

2015-2017

(232 players with 1000+ PAs)

 

ISO

1. Stanton .316

3. JD Martinez .284

14. L Duda .248

34. Moose .221

59. Morrison .206

65. Santana .200

74. Moreland .197

125. Hosmer .169

 

OPS

7. JD Martinez .943

9. Stanton .934

44. Moose .824

48. Hosmer .822

52. Santana .813

54. L Duda .812

 

 

2016-2017 (155 players 900+ PAs)

ISO

1. .309 Stanton

2. .305 JD Martinez

(The two biggest power hitters are available)

 

[Meh]

1) Trade JBJ for prospects & Trade prospects for Stanton ($18M to luxury tax).

2) Sign Santana $15M x 3

3) Sign Bryan Shaw $7M x 3

 

Stanton is going to cost a lot. I think Dodgers land him for something around Buehler and Verdugo plus two more lower guys(Heredia or Diaz being one). I think for the Sox to grab him it'll be Bendi and two or three prospects.

[moonslav59]

Stanton is going to cost a lot. I think Dodgers land him for something around Buehler and Verdugo plus two more lower guys(Heredia or Diaz being one). I think for the Sox to grab him it'll be Bendi and two or three prospects.

 

I could be wrong, but I think his contract lowers the return significantly.

[jacksonianmarch]

His contract isn’t that bad of a contract from a lux tax perspective. Yes, Stanton gets $29.5 mil for 10 years, but for lux tax, it’ll be $25 mil. Plus, Stanton’s contract ends when he’s 37 rather than early 40s like most insane 10 year contracts

[Bellhorn04]

His contract isn’t that bad of a contract from a lux tax perspective. Yes, Stanton gets $29.5 mil for 10 years, but for lux tax, it’ll be $25 mil. Plus, Stanton’s contract ends when he’s 37 rather than early 40s like most insane 10 year contracts

 

The opt-out is a negative though. Especially for the Red Sox, since Stanton would probably love to play on the West Coast at some point.

[jacksonianmarch]

The opt out is less an issue IMO due to the major backloaded money. This isn’t Tanaka where the money was even.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Stanton opts out, he leaves 7 years and $218 mil guaranteed on the table. That’s $31.1 mil per season for years 31-37. The deal is so backloaded that even with the AAV of $295 from here on out, it’s actually higher after the opt out. Also, the opt out is after another 3 seasons.

[Bellhorn04]

If Stanton opts out, he leaves 7 years and $218 mil guaranteed on the table. That’s $31.1 mil per season for years 31-37. The deal is so backloaded that even with the AAV of $295 from here on out, it’s actually higher after the opt out. Also, the opt out is after another 3 seasons.

 

A lot depends on what we see in salary inflation the next few years, with what Harper and Machado get.

[jacksonianmarch]

Apples and orange, though. Stanton will be much older than those guys when they break the bank

[Bellhorn04]

Apples and orange, though. Stanton will be much older than those guys when they break the bank

 

Fair point, but then look at Greinke opting out and profiting from it. There are still some crazy owners out there.

[moonslav59]

Is this an option?

 

Trade JBJ for prospects and trade prospects for Stanton ($18M luxury tax bump).

$14M Cozart (Bogey to 3B and Devers to 1B).

$7M Shaw

 

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have hired Tim Hyers as the team’s new hitting coach.

[oldtimer]

Is this an option?

 

Trade JBJ for prospects and trade prospects for Stanton ($18M luxury tax bump).

$14M Cozart (Bogey to 3B and Devers to 1B).

$7M Shaw

 

 

Our needs are what should drive our foray into the FA market.

 

One RP

Help at 2nd base

Will Rameriz recover or is he on a downhill slide/ Do we need to get a DH to replace him?

Power bat who could play 1st base, or if Devers moves to 1st a 3rd baseman

Possible outfield replacement for JBJ

Utility player overhaul

 

Quite likely we can get 2 FA field players and a RP. Some choice from the list below might do it. I don't see how we can get Stanton but stranger things have happened.

 

I like the idea of Moustakas for 3rd with Devers moving to 1st, providing contract terms are sensible.

Someone like Brandon Kintzler as a RP might be suitable

Nunez if recovered from the knee injury has shown he can fill in at 2nd and other infield spots

Alternative to Nunez might be Cozart but that would mean moving players

JD Martinez is a power bat, but without a real home defensively, unless he could play outfield (a real ?). Replacing JBJs 20 HR with 38 and with a higher OPS sounds good for the offense.

Believe we can fill utility roles from our current 40 man roster people.

 

I would go hard for Otani although it is a crap shoot, but I believe he can play outfield and pitch. Might be a generational talent.

[moonslav59]

Our needs are what should drive our foray into the FA market.

 

One RP

Help at 2nd base

Will Rameriz recover or is he on a downhill slide/ Do we need to get a DH to replace him?

Power bat who could play 1st base, or if Devers moves to 1st a 3rd baseman

Possible outfield replacement for JBJ

Utility player overhaul

 

Quite likely we can get 2 FA field players and a RP. Some choice from the list below might do it. I don't see how we can get Stanton but stranger things have happened.

 

I like the idea of Moustakas for 3rd with Devers moving to 1st, providing contract terms are sensible.

Someone like Brandon Kintzler as a RP might be suitable

Nunez if recovered from the knee injury has shown he can fill in at 2nd and other infield spots

Alternative to Nunez might be Cozart but that would mean moving players

JD Martinez is a power bat, but without a real home defensively, unless he could play outfield (a real ?). Replacing JBJs 20 HR with 38 and with a higher OPS sounds good for the offense.

Believe we can fill utility roles from our current 40 man roster people.

 

I would go hard for Otani although it is a crap shoot, but I believe he can play outfield and pitch. Might be a generational talent.

 

I don't think we help at 2B. We have Hernandez, Holt, Lin & Marrero. Pedey may come back at some point and make the acquisition a bench warmer. We don't have that kind of money to spend on someone destined to be on the bench.

 

Our top priorities will likely take up all the money.

 

1. Clean-up power hitter (1B?)

2. 1B or DH (if HRam can play 1B and #1 is not a 1Bman.

3. 4th OF'er

4. RP

5. SP, if possible

6. 2B

[jacksonianmarch]

Not having a Pedroia replacement is stupid. Pedey’s surgery has a notoriously high fail rate, to the point where there’s good literature out there that the orthopods should stop offering it. I have said many times on here. You need to expect that Pedroia and ERod are out for the year. If they come back sooner than that and prove to be healthy, then bonus

[moonslav59]

JD Martinez is a power bat, but without a real home defensively, unless he could play outfield (a real ?). Replacing JBJs 20 HR with 38 and with a higher OPS sounds good for the offense.

 

JD in LF and Beni in CF really hurts our OF defense, but the upgrade in offense would be tremendous.

 

Then, we get something for JBJ (#3 SP'er or 1Bman?)

[moonslav59]

Not having a Pedroia replacement is stupid. Pedey’s surgery has a notoriously high fail rate, to the point where there’s good literature out there that the orthopods should stop offering it. I have said many times on here. You need to expect that Pedroia and ERod are out for the year. If they come back sooner than that and prove to be healthy, then bonus

 

We have too many holes to fill them all with high quality players.

 

We have no clean-up hitter.

 

We have no 1Bman.

 

We have a banged up DH.

 

We have a poor fielding 3Bman that might be better at 1B.

 

We need a RP'er.

 

We have ERod starting 2018 on the 60 man DL and Wright as our best hope as the #5.

 

I'm not thrilled with our 4 guys who can play 2B, but at least we have 4 to choose from.

 

I'll choose Hernandez/Holt/Lin/Marrero at 2B over Travis at 1B/Clean-up.

 

I'll choose Hernandez, so we can sign a 4th OF'er or RP'er or SP'er.

 

Sure, if Henry opens his wallet really wide, we can add a quality 2Bman, too, but to me 2B depth is not a top 3 or 4 priority this winter. It might be our #5 priority. I guess I might not argue to much, if someone says it's our #4 priority, but to me we have 3 clear needs ahead of 2B, and it's easier to find a Nunez mid season than a Martinez, Moustakas, Santana, Bryan Shaw or quality mid rotation starter.

 

[moonslav59]

For those who do not like Mostakas, because you want to wait for Machado next year, how's this?

 

Sign Machado next year and move Moustakas to 1B and Devers to DH.