A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

If a team built with Betts, Benintendi, Devers and a ginormous pile of money cannot keep a contender going - then somebody is doing it wrong. Nobody argues that decisions have to be made - I am certainly not arguing keeping this team together until Bradley is 37. But letting 27-28 year old Top 20 players walk on principle is not what fans should have to expect. If you are defining a cliff by "oh bother, look at all these decisions - I guess we'll be a 70 win team in 2021" - then that doesn't make any sense.

 

Oh, we can keep quite a few of these guys, but the budget will be so high that we will need a lot of infusion of young talent from the farm to fill out the rest of the roster with better than replacement level players..

[Kimmi]

If the window closes in 2 seasons it is because the Red Sox chose not to serve their fans properly.

 

My problem is, why is there even a window to begin with? The farm system should provide a revolving door of players ready to step in when others leave for free agency, not something to be depleted in one fell swoop, thereby creating a window.

 

That said, I completely agree that things could change in 2-3 years.

[moonslav59]

My problem is, why is there even a window to begin with? The farm system should provide a revolving door of players ready to step in when others leave for free agency, not something to be depleted in one fell swoop, thereby creating a window.

 

That said, I completely agree that things could change in 2-3 years.

 

Agreed, but we did have a surplus and not enough roster slots for all of them. We should have made one or maybe two big deals but not 3 going on 4.

 

[Nick]

Now that 3B is occupied by Devers, can you name me one player that we've traded that would have started for us next year?

[moonslav59]

Now that 3B is occupied by Devers, can you name me one player that we've traded that would have started for us next year?

 

Next year is year 2 of the 3-4 year window. When they were traded, just about all of the guys we traded were not expected to be in significant factors in MLB by next year, except maybe Moncada & Margot.

 

That being said, Moncada would probably start at 2B this year, and Margot would be a solid 4th Of'er and starting DH until HRam is back, assuming no signings or further trades. Maybe Dubon could win the 2B job next spring.

 

Many want us to sign JD or trade for Stanton- both OF'ers. Others want us to trade or sign a 2Bman this winter.

 

The point is, nobody expected help from these guys in 2017. Even Devers came up faster than expected. Kopech might be getting close. Espi and Basabe and others were always viewed as farther away.

 

.

[jacksonianmarch]

Now that 3B is occupied by Devers, can you name me one player that we've traded that would have started for us next year?

 

Shaw would be your 1b. Moncada would be starting at 2b with Pedroia down. Margot would make Bradley expendable for a trade. Kopech would probably make your rotation out of ST with ERod on the shelf and with the tenuous elbow of Price

[Nick]

Dustin Pedroia is under contract through 2021. That spot is blocked. What are you going to do with Pedey? Bench him? Moncada was playing 3B when traded. He became expendable because of Devers. Shaw was traded because Sox management thought he was inadequate at 3B. DD loves Bradley.

 

I would take Sale over Kopech right now. If Kopech was with Sox, we don't have Sale.

[moonslav59]

Dustin Pedroia is under contract through 2021. That spot is blocked. What are you going to do with Pedey? Bench him? Moncada was playing 3B when traded. He became expendable because of Devers. Shaw was traded because Sox management thought he was inadequate at 3B. DD loves Bradley.

 

I would take Sale over Kopech right now. If Kopech was with Sox, we don't have Sale.

 

You asked who would start.

 

Pedey is out- maybe for the whole year. Clearly Moncada would be a better choice than Holt or Hernandez. Dubon might give both a run for their money, too.

 

If we did not trade Kopech for sale, Kopech would be looking to win one of two slots opened by ERod's injury and the theoretical take back of the trade for Sale. Margot would not beat out JBJ, but he'd be a better choice than HRam at DH, and we really need a 4th OF'er. He could easily get 550+ PAs for the Sox next year

 

If we took back all the trades, we'd have Shaw at 1B, Moncada or Dubon at 2B, Margot at DH/4th OF and Kopech as a strong candidate for 5th starter. Many of these kids were not expected to be significant ML player in 2018, but they probably would have been had we kept them.

 

(BTW, I wasn't even for keeping them all. Kimmi has stated she felt ben would have made a big deal, too- just not 4.)

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Now that 3B is occupied by Devers, can you name me one player that we've traded that would have started for us next year?

 

I think this question has already been answered. The thing is, you can always find an OF, I can live without Margot, but Moncada's loss will likely hurt the team starting next season and his loss could be felt for the next 5 years if they can't find another 2b, which isn't always easy to do.

 

I don't think Kopech would make the starting rotation next year out of spring training, but he should be ready sometime next season and he will definitely be ready by 2019. I like the A.Rizzo-A.Gonzalez comparison. It took Rizzo a few seasons (after being traded) to surpass Gonzalez as a player; likewise, I think Kopech will surpass C.Sale in a few years. In addition, the fact that Sale burns out in the last month of the season can't be a good sign for his future and long term durability.

 

If we took back the trades, the Red Sox wouldn't have Sale or Kimbrel and thus wouldn't make the playoffs in 2017, BUT they would be eminently stronger going into the future with a power bat at 2b (Moncada), a potential dominant ace in the rotation (Kopech), a quality young OF in Margot, and Travis Shaw at 1b. This is why I believe Dombrowski will be remembered pretty much as a disgrace in Red Sox history. Henry will probably fire him in a few years when he begins to see how bad some of Dombrowski's trades were for the organization.

 

I don't know how much longer Pedroia can play 2b. Perhaps he will spend one or two years as a DH. He is at an age when a player's defense typically declines and the injury will likely expedite that process. If Pedroia is going to hurt the Red Sox's infield defense over the next few years, it won't make sense to trot him out there--DH would be a better spot.

Edited November 6, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Nick]

I think this question has already been answered. The thing is, you can always find an OF, I can live without Margot, but Moncada's loss will likely hurt the team starting next season and his loss could be felt for the next 5 years if they can't find another 2b, which isn't always easy to do.

 

I don't think Kopech would make the starting rotation next year out of spring training, but he should be ready sometime next season and he will definitely be ready by 2019. I like the A.Rizzo-A.Gonzalez comparison. It took Rizzo a few seasons (after being traded) to surpass Gonzalez as a player; likewise, I think Kopech will surpass C.Sale in a few years. In addition, the fact that Sale burns out in the last month of the season can't be a good sign for his future and long term durability.

 

If we took back the trades, the Red Sox wouldn't have Sale or Kimbrel and thus probably wouldn't make the playoffs in 2017, BUT they would be eminently stronger going into the future with a power bat at 2b (Moncada), a potential dominant ace in the rotation (Kopech), and a quality young OF in Margot.

 

I don't know how much longer Pedroia can play 2b. Perhaps he will spend one or two years as a DH. He is at an age when a player's defense typically declines and the injury will likely expedite that process. If Pedroia is going to hurt the Red Sox's infield defense over the next few years, it won't make sense to trot him out there--DH would be a better spot.

 

So all of you are saying we'd just eat Dustin's $57M left in his contract? well, okay then.

[moonslav59]

I think this question has already been answered. The thing is, you can always find an OF, I can live without Margot, but Moncada's loss will likely hurt the team starting next season and his loss could be felt for the next 5 years if they can't find another 2b, which isn't always easy to do.

 

I don't think Kopech would make the starting rotation next year out of spring training, but he should be ready sometime next season and he will definitely be ready by 2019. I like the A.Rizzo-A.Gonzalez comparison. It took Rizzo a few seasons (after being traded) to surpass Gonzalez as a player; likewise, I think Kopech will surpass C.Sale in a few years. In addition, the fact that Sale burns out in the last month of the season can't be a good sign for his future and long term durability.

 

Margot was expendable, but he just turned 23 and has 5 more years of team control. That runs far beyond the "window."

 

There's also still a good chance someone from the others (Espi, Dubon, Basabe, Allen, Asuaje and more) will end up being meaningful contributors at the ML level.

[moonslav59]

So all of you are saying we'd just eat Dustin's $57M left in his contract? well, okay then.

 

He may miss all of 2018 and return as a DH. He may fight his way back, and I think he will.

 

Either way, Moncada would start for us next year at 2B and/or DH and be our DH in 2019 and beyond.

 

Would you rather have Holt?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Margot was more expendable than Moncada and Kopech. If Dombrowki can find another way to get a closer, it is possible that Margot could have been included in the White Sox deal for Sale, allowing the Red Sox to keep either Moncada or Kopech.

 

In trading all of this talent, Dombrowski decided to play a game of high risk poker. If he doesn't win a World Series over the next few seasons, he will look like a total fool.

[Nick]

He may miss all of 2018 and return as a DH. He may fight his way back, and I think he will.

 

Either way, Moncada would start for us next year at 2B and/or DH and be our DH in 2019 and beyond.

 

Would you rather have Holt?

 

Again, but then we don't have Sale and we don't win last year. We also don't have Kimbrel. We also don't have Pom.

 

What would our 25 man roster look like? Sale, Kimbrel, Pom combined cost us $40M. I suppose we could buy couple of good players with that money.

 

c no change

1B Shaw

2B Moncada

SS Xander

3B Devers

LF Beni

CF Bradley Jr

RF Betts

 

SP Price

SP Porcello

SP E Rod

SP Wright

SP Johnson

 

I suppose if we were willing not to win the Division last two years, then 2018 could have been better.

 

It's Henry's fault for hiring DD.

 

Kimmi may have the right idea. Stand pat and let contracts for Hanley, Sadoval and Porcello expire. Use that money to extend Betts and Sale.

Edited November 6, 2017 by Nick

[cp176]

I'm calling massive ******** talk about Moncada and his value to our team going forward. I was and still am a big Moncada fan. He still might be the one. There are extremely few people posting here who saw any value in keeping Moncada and it had nothing to do with any concept of someone being inured in the future. This board almost to a person felt that he was and probably still is an over rated prospect. A virtual K machine who wasn't going to help us at all. A Yankee fan tells you all how good he could be and all of a sudden it makes people start second guessing trading him for Chris Sale. Interesting!

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm calling massive ******** talk about Moncada and his value to our team going forward. I was and still am a big Moncada fan. He still might be the one. There are extremely few people posting here who saw any value in keeping Moncada and it had nothing to do with any concept of someone being inured in the future. This board almost to a person felt that he was and probably still is an over rated prospect. A virtual K machine who wasn't going to help us at all. A Yankee fan tells you all how good he could be and all of a sudden it makes people start second guessing trading him for Chris Sale. Interesting!

 

You’re funny. Moncada is, in all likelihood, going to be an all star 2b at some point in his career. But I never said you shouldn’t have dealt him. I am just saying that dealing him contributed to the cliff that is coming. Getting Sale was necessary to win now. Without Sale, you’re in the wild card playoff or maybe worse, out of the playoff picture.

[sk7326]

My problem is, why is there even a window to begin with? The farm system should provide a revolving door of players ready to step in when others leave for free agency, not something to be depleted in one fell swoop, thereby creating a window.

 

That said, I completely agree that things could change in 2-3 years.

 

That is not realistic. Every team faces this. Prospects graduate - and then there might be more but they are in Single A or something.

[Bellhorn04]

I think this question has already been answered. The thing is, you can always find an OF, I can live without Margot, but Moncada's loss will likely hurt the team starting next season and his loss could be felt for the next 5 years if they can't find another 2b, which isn't always easy to do.

 

I don't think Kopech would make the starting rotation next year out of spring training, but he should be ready sometime next season and he will definitely be ready by 2019. I like the A.Rizzo-A.Gonzalez comparison. It took Rizzo a few seasons (after being traded) to surpass Gonzalez as a player; likewise, I think Kopech will surpass C.Sale in a few years. In addition, the fact that Sale burns out in the last month of the season can't be a good sign for his future and long term durability.

 

If we took back the trades, the Red Sox wouldn't have Sale or Kimbrel and thus wouldn't make the playoffs in 2017, BUT they would be eminently stronger going into the future with a power bat at 2b (Moncada), a potential dominant ace in the rotation (Kopech), a quality young OF in Margot, and Travis Shaw at 1b. This is why I believe Dombrowski will be remembered pretty much as a disgrace in Red Sox history. Henry will probably fire him in a few years when he begins to see how bad some of Dombrowski's trades were for the organization.

 

Aren't you the same guy who started a thread called 'Debunking the 3 year window myth' back in August?

[Bellhorn04]

Margot was more expendable than Moncada and Kopech. If Dombrowki can find another way to get a closer, it is possible that Margot could have been included in the White Sox deal for Sale, allowing the Red Sox to keep either Moncada or Kopech.

 

In trading all of this talent, Dombrowski decided to play a game of high risk poker. If he doesn't win a World Series over the next few seasons, he will look like a total fool.

 

What exactly was Dombrowski supposed to do about the horrific pitching staff left to him by Ben? That is probably worthy of a thread in itself.

[moonslav59]

Again, but then we don't have Sale and we don't win last year.

 

We didn't win last year or this year.

 

We also don't have Kimbrel. We also don't have Pom.

 

Again, I've never been against trading prospects. I'm just not for trading 4 for a RP'er making near FA market money at the time of the trade. I loved the Sale trade, and I wish we had kept the prospects we traded for Kimbrel & Pom to get Quintana- someone under control for 3 more years.

 

(BTW, Pom and Kimbrel did not do all that great in 2016's division winning season, especially Pom.)

 

What would our 25 man roster look like? Sale, Kimbrel, Pom combined cost us $40M. I suppose we could buy couple of good players with that money.

 

c no change

1B Shaw

2B Moncada

SS Xander

3B Devers

LF Beni

CF Bradley Jr

RF Betts

 

SP Price

SP Porcello

SP E Rod

SP Wright

SP Johnson

 

I suppose if we were willing not to win the Division last two years, then 2018 could have been better.

 

It's Henry's fault for hiring DD.

 

Kimmi may have the right idea. Stand pat and let contracts for Hanley, Sadoval and Porcello expire. Use that money to extend Betts and Sale.

 

So, Kimbrel, Pom and Bogey go? Where are we then? All are up before or at the same time those two come up for re-signing.

 

I'm not going to play the hindsight game and bash DD for the Shaw or Sale trades. I liked them both.

 

I did not like the Pom & Kimbrel deals, but I knew both would help us now and for some of the "window".

 

Nobody is disputing the fact that DD made us better than we would have been "NOW". The dispute is "at what cost" to the future.

Edited November 6, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I'm calling massive ******** talk about Moncada and his value to our team going forward. I was and still am a big Moncada fan. He still might be the one. There are extremely few people posting here who saw any value in keeping Moncada and it had nothing to do with any concept of someone being inured in the future. This board almost to a person felt that he was and probably still is an over rated prospect. A virtual K machine who wasn't going to help us at all. A Yankee fan tells you all how good he could be and all of a sudden it makes people start second guessing trading him for Chris Sale. Interesting!

 

I loved Moncada, AND I really loved the Sale trade. By mentioning who might be starting for the Sox next year as a reply to Nick's call out, I in no way was implying I wanted Moncada or Kopech back for Sale.

[Slasher9]

I'm calling massive ******** talk about Moncada and his value to our team going forward. I was and still am a big Moncada fan. He still might be the one. There are extremely few people posting here who saw any value in keeping Moncada and it had nothing to do with any concept of someone being inured in the future. This board almost to a person felt that he was and probably still is an over rated prospect. A virtual K machine who wasn't going to help us at all. A Yankee fan tells you all how good he could be and all of a sudden it makes people start second guessing trading him for Chris Sale. Interesting!

outside of Kimmi, i dont know anyone that thinks the moncada for sale trade should not have been done. moncada can become a perennial all star and that trade was still a no brainer. thanks price.

[mvp 78]

32% k rate. That's mid 80's Rob Deer. Plus bad defense! Not a good combo IMO.

[moonslav59]

32% k rate. That's mid 80's Rob Deer. Plus bad defense! Not a good combo IMO.

 

Better than HRam at DH and maybe better than Holt at 2B for 2018.

[mvp 78]

Better than HRam at DH and maybe better than Holt at 2B for 2018.

 

So your argument is that he's better than two s***** players? That's some high praise!

[moonslav59]

So your argument is that he's better than two s***** players? That's some high praise!

 

Please follow along.

 

We were asked what players that were traded would start for the Sox. I listed Moncada, maybe Dubon at 2B or Moncada at DH. I also mentioned Margot might DH/4th OF for us. With ERod hurt and the Sale trade being theoretically revoked, maybe Kopech would win a slot.

 

I never said I'd be happy with these guys starting in 2018 for the Sox.

[mvp 78]

Please follow along.

 

We were asked what players that were traded would start for the Sox. I listed Moncada, maybe Dubon at 2B or Moncada at DH. I also mentioned Margot might DH/4th OF for us. With ERod hurt and the Sale trade being theoretically revoked, maybe Kopech would win a slot.

 

I never said I'd be happy with these guys starting in 2018 for the Sox.

 

And all I said was that Moncada has a high k rate and sucks defensively. Not sure what the problem is.

[moonslav59]

And all I said was that Moncada has a high k rate and sucks defensively. Not sure what the problem is.

 

No, you went say, "So your argument is that he's better than two s***** players? That's some high praise!"

 

I wasn't praising anybody. I was answering a question about which prospects traded would be starting now.

 

The debate was not about praise- just are they good enough to be starting.

 

I'm not a big Holt fan, so saying Moncada and maybe Dubon are better than Holt is not praise.

 

Same with Moncada vs HRam.

[cp176]

You’re funny. Moncada is, in all likelihood, going to be an all star 2b at some point in his career. But I never said you shouldn’t have dealt him. I am just saying that dealing him contributed to the cliff that is coming. Getting Sale was necessary to win now. Without Sale, you’re in the wild card playoff or maybe worse, out of the playoff picture.

 

Believe it or not Yankee fan this one wasn't necessarily directed at you. A lot of talk about Moncada here - most of it was negative with respect to what he could give us. I saw him play and still believe that he will be a star.

[moonslav59]

Believe it or not Yankee fan this one wasn't necessarily directed at you. A lot of talk about Moncada here - most of it was negative with respect to what he could give us. I saw him play and still believe that he will be a star.

 

I was only concerned with his defense. I'm fine with high K rates, if the guy still hits.

 

I was roasted for suggesting he DH.

 

I loved the Sale trade, but not because I disliked Moncada or Kopech.

 

You are right, though. Many poster roasted Moncada over his tiny sample size in the bigs in 2015.