A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Kimmi]

Give me a freaking break. I guess until every Sox player dies, all success is attributable to Theo. Theo the God. Hell, he won two division titles this year according to you and your elk.

 

Yes HE WON TWO DIVISION TITLES.

 

No, you give me a freaking break with your 'all success is attributable to Dombrowski'. He didn't do anything but step into a great situation and reap the benefits that others worked so hard to build.

 

I am pleased to know that not only do I have a gang, but I have elk as well. I rock.

[Kimmi]

Sale and Kimbrel had a combined fWAR of 11.0 this year (combined bWAR of 9.7) on a team that won 93 games and won the division by 2 games.

 

They were 2 of our top 4 players.

 

I don't get how you can criticize them as unnecessary moves.

 

At the time of the moves, they were unnecessary. IMO, we could have gotten a closer that would provide pretty much the same production without giving up the prospects. I agree, it turned out that we needed Sale because of Price's injury, but that wasn't my point.

[Kimmi]

LOL

Kimmi always struck me as more of a reindeer person.

 

I am partial to Rudolph.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree, it turned out that we needed Sale because of Price's injury, but that wasn't my point.

 

I guess you don't subscribe to the view that you can't have enough pitching.

[Kimmi]

I guess you don't subscribe to the view that you can't have enough pitching.

 

Oh, but I do. I'm the one suggesting Dombrowski focus on pitching this offseason over the big bat. I just think he went overboard and spent too much in prospects. The Kimbrel trade is the one that gets me the most. We got the double whammy (money and prospects) on that one. And I like Kimbrel.

[Bellhorn04]

Oh, but I do. I'm the one suggesting Dombrowski focus on pitching this offseason over the big bat. I just think he went overboard and spent too much in prospects. The Kimbrel trade is the one that gets me the most. We got the double whammy (money and prospects) on that one. And I like Kimbrel.

 

I don't disagree that Kimbrel was an overpay. If he was as good in all 3 years of the contract as he was this year, though, 3.5 WAR good, he'd be worth a lot more than 12 million a year, if those FanGraphs dollar values mean anything.

[Northern Star]

Oh, but I do. I'm the one suggesting Dombrowski focus on pitching this offseason over the big bat. I just think he went overboard and spent too much in prospects. The Kimbrel trade is the one that gets me the most. We got the double whammy (money and prospects) on that one. And I like Kimbrel.

 

When you say focus on pitching, who do you have in mind? Top of the rotation or middle?

[moonslav59]

I know ERod is hurt and Price is questionable, but it seems weird that last year we didn't need pitching, but this year we do.

 

Last winter Pom was questionable and Wright was injured.

[moonslav59]

I don't disagree that Kimbrel was an overpay. If he was as good in all 3 years of the contract as he was this year, though, 3.5 WAR good, he'd be worth a lot more than 12 million a year, if those FanGraphs dollar values mean anything.

 

The cost of closers sky-rocketed right after we traded for Kimbrel.

 

I've always loved Kimbrel, and I thought he'd remain a top 3 closer all 3 years, but I thought the overpay was too much.

 

fangraph's WAR:

 

2016: 1.2 ($9.6M fangraphs value)

2017: 3.3 ($26.1M)

2018: tba

 

 

 

[Larry Cook]

I'm glad you are not our GM.

 

All DD has done is bring for 1st time back to back Division titles. You are okay with coming in last place 3 out of 4 years?

 

He is responsible for key players on the team. We don't win without Price last year. We don't win this year without Sale and Pom. We don't win either years without Kimbrel. He's hamstrung by Pablo's bloated contract for two more f***ing years after overcoming it for last two years.

 

Tell me again how he has failed the Sox?

 

How has desperate dave failed us. Let me count the ways, no wait, that would take way way way too long! How about we three ways to start!

 

1.) he “wall streeted” our organization. He killed our medium and long range future and we now live in two year “earnings call” window, with a team that is still flawed! We are literally where Detroit was two years ago. If we come up empty the next two years, how much is it going to hurt knowing we were building something special pre desperate dave!

 

2.) he Chernobyled the baseball operations department! The brightest and best have abandoned the organization. He ran them off! I swear, desperate dave could not get laid in a women’s prison while holding a hand full of get out of jail free cards!!!!

 

3.) an inability get everything on the grocery list, even though he had a huge budget! Between trades, free agency and a deep prospect pool, desperate dave bungled obtaining all the items on the grocery list because he overpaid for the first items on the list and ran out of capital before he could secure everything we needed!!! What kind of moron does that!

 

I could go on as there is so much more. But you get the point!

[moonslav59]

My top Sox prospect list:

 

1. Chavis

2. Mata

3. Groome

4. Flores

5. Ockimey

6. Houck

7. Scherff

8. Brannen

9. Beeks

10. Maddox

11. Travis

12. Chatham

13. Shawaryn

14. D Diaz

15. Raudes

 

Sleeper: Jake Cosart (45th on soxprospects.com)

 

 

 

 

 

[Larry Cook]

My top Sox prospect list:

 

1. Chavis

2. Mata

3. Groome

4. Flores

5. Ockimey

6. Houck

7. Scherff

8. Brannen

9. Beeks

10. Maddox

11. Travis

12. Chatham

13. Shawaryn

14. D Diaz

15. Raudes

 

Sleeper: Jake Cosart (45th on soxprospects.com)

 

 

 

I am cautiously optimistic about schreff, but until I see him pitch, it is hard to evaluate you him properly. He could single handedly make this a nice draft class.

 

Ps: really hope Maddox gets a chance to earn a roster spot in spring training. If the control improves, it should be a no brainer. The ball explodes out his hand.

 

Pss: no Thompson?

[Bellhorn04]

How has desperate dave failed us. Let me count the ways, no wait, that would take way way way too long! How about we three ways to start!

 

1.) he “wall streeted” our organization. He killed our medium and long range future and we now live in two year “earnings call” window, with a team that is still flawed! We are literally where Detroit was two years ago. If we come up empty the next two years, how much is it going to hurt knowing we were building something special pre desperate dave!

 

2.) he Chernobyled the baseball operations department! The brightest and best have abandoned the organization. He ran them off! I swear, desperate dave could not get laid in a women’s prison while holding a hand full of get out of jail free cards!!!!

 

3.) an inability get everything on the grocery list, even though he had a huge budget! Between trades, free agency and a deep prospect pool, desperate dave bungled obtaining all the items on the grocery list because he overpaid for the first items on the list and ran out of capital before he could secure everything we needed!!! What kind of moron does that!

 

I could go on as there is so much more. But you get the point!

 

Dave did not have a 'huge budget' to work with. If he did all he had to do for the offense was sign Encarnacion. And you know he would have if Henry authorized it.

 

Of course you're not into reasonable debate, just hyperbole with a lot of exclamation marks.

[cp176]

How has desperate dave failed us. Let me count the ways, no wait, that would take way way way too long! How about we three ways to start!

 

1.) he “wall streeted” our organization. He killed our medium and long range future and we now live in two year “earnings call” window, with a team that is still flawed! We are literally where Detroit was two years ago. If we come up empty the next two years, how much is it going to hurt knowing we were building something special pre desperate dave!

 

2.) he Chernobyled the baseball operations department! The brightest and best have abandoned the organization. He ran them off! I swear, desperate dave could not get laid in a women’s prison while holding a hand full of get out of jail free cards!!!!

 

3.) an inability get everything on the grocery list, even though he had a huge budget! Between trades, free agency and a deep prospect pool, desperate dave bungled obtaining all the items on the grocery list because he overpaid for the first items on the list and ran out of capital before he could secure everything we needed!!! What kind of moron does that!

 

I could go on as there is so much more. But you get the point!

 

Raise your hand if you take these comments seriously? Joke!

[moonslav59]

My top Sox prospect list:

 

1. Chavis

2. Mata

3. Groome

4. Flores

5. Ockimey

6. Houck

7. Scherff

8. Brannen

9. Beeks

10. Maddox

11. Travis

12. Chatham

13. Shawaryn

14. D Diaz

15. Raudes

 

Sleeper: Jake Cosart (45th on soxprospects.com)

 

 

 

I am cautiously optimistic about schreff, but until I see him pitch, it is hard to evaluate you him properly. He could single handedly make this a nice draft class.

 

Ps: really hope Maddox gets a chance to earn a roster spot in spring training. If the control improves, it should be a no brainer. The ball explodes out his hand.

 

Pss: no Thompson?

 

I almost put Thompson #15.

 

As you can see, I count speculative value more than soxprospects.com and others.

[moonslav59]

Dave did not have a 'huge budget' to work with. If he did all he had to do for the offense was sign Encarnacion. And you know he would have if Henry authorized it.

 

Of course you're not into reasonable debate, just hyperbole with a lot of exclamation marks.

 

If we signed EE, we'd probably have ended up over the luxury limit, and/or we'd not have gotten Fister, Moreland, Nunez, Reed and Davis.

 

No re-set.

[moonslav59]

Raise your hand if you take these comments seriously? Joke!

 

1) It is a 3-4 year window not 2.

 

2) Firing JF was essential, and that meant losing the coaches. It's not rocket science.

 

3) We had a high priority to re-set the luxury tax, so the winter spending budget was not "huge".

 

Other than getting all 3 points wrong, I kind of liked Larry's assessment.

 

[Bellhorn04]

1) It is a 3-4 year window not 2.

 

2) Firing JF was essential, and that meant losing the coaches. It's not rocket science.

 

3) We had a high priority to re-set the luxury tax, so the winter spending budget was not "huge".

 

Other than getting all 3 points wrong, I kind of liked Larry's assessment.

 

 

I think Larry was talking about losing scouting types after DD was hired, not losing coaches.

[mvp 78]

Dave did not have a 'huge budget' to work with. If he did all he had to do for the offense was sign Encarnacion. And you know he would have if Henry authorized it.

 

Of course you're not into reasonable debate, just hyperbole with a lot of exclamation marks.

 

I'm pretty sure they outright said that they were staying under the cap this year! There's no way EE was coming here!!!

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty sure they outright said that they were staying under the cap this year! There's no way EE was coming here!!!

 

The only way would have been to not have almost all of these players:

 

5.5 Moreland

Fister

Boyer

 

 

Not add (pro-rated deals):

Nunez

Reed

Davis

 

Maybe trade or DFA:

$6.5M Young

$2M Abad

$2M Holt

[Bellhorn04]

As far as DD is concerned, his only really large contract so far is Price.

[Kimmi]

When you say focus on pitching, who do you have in mind? Top of the rotation or middle?

 

I am talking about a #2/3 type pitcher. Our rotation could be very good as is, but I think there are a lot of question marks beyond Sale.

[Kimmi]

I know ERod is hurt and Price is questionable, but it seems weird that last year we didn't need pitching, but this year we do.

 

Last winter Pom was questionable and Wright was injured.

 

We could always use more pitching. I didn't think it was necessary to go all out to get Sale. We already had our supposed ace. Similarly, I don't think it's necessary to go all out and get another ace this season.

[Kimmi]

Dave did not have a 'huge budget' to work with. If he did all he had to do for the offense was sign Encarnacion. And you know he would have if Henry authorized it.

 

Of course you're not into reasonable debate, just hyperbole with a lot of exclamation marks.

 

I think the point was that when Dombrowski first joined the team, he had a lot of resources available to him between money and prospects which he did not use wisely (in the opinions of some). Yes, Dombrowski was restrained by the salary cap this year, but if I recall correctly, Henry opened his checkbook to Dombrowski that first offseason. Not to mention the wealth of prospects to deal with.

[moonslav59]

We could always use more pitching. I didn't think it was necessary to go all out to get Sale. We already had our supposed ace. Similarly, I don't think it's necessary to go all out and get another ace this season.

 

Fair point.

 

I'm almost always front and center on the acquire a pitcher bandwagon, and I do agree we could use a 2/3 or 3/4 starter type, but to me we have two higher needs:

 

1) Clean-up hitter (preferably 1B or 3B if we move Devers to 1B)

 

2) 4th OF'er (who could cover DH, if HRam fails)

 

I'm not sure there's enough money to get all three, and I sure as hell would prefer we don't trade anymore prospects (unless it's for Stanton).

 

 

Edited November 1, 2017 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

I think the point was that when Dombrowski first joined the team, he had a lot of resources available to him between money and prospects which he did not use wisely (in the opinions of some). Yes, Dombrowski was restrained by the salary cap this year, but if I recall correctly, Henry opened his checkbook to Dombrowski that first offseason. Not to mention the wealth of prospects to deal with.

 

Dombrowski certainly had a wealth of prospects to work with, and he has certainly sawed through them. With regard to the payroll, though, Price has really been the only big-ticket acquisition. Which had a lot to do with being hamstrung by the Hanley-Panda package.

[Nick]

Can we just fire DD and hire Theo part time? You know the baseball God that everyone here kneels to. He did bring us two division titles while not being on Sox payroll. Of course he had nothing to do with our three last place finishes.

[moonslav59]

While Price is DD's only big ticket item, he has made other moves that add up to a lot of money being paid out. Nobody should complain about Sale's low cost, and Kimbrel's "market rate" at the time of the trade looks like a bargain now, but some other deals have not really worked out well. Moreland gave us more than what we should have expected, but that doesn't mean it was great deal or the only one out there.

 

FA Signings or pick-ups off waivers:

$217M/7 Price

$13M/2 Young

$5.5M Moreland

$1.75M Fister

$975K Boyer

 

via trade:

$38M/3 C Sale

$38M/3 Kimbrel

$4.5M Pom (2nd of 3 arbs)

$2.63M A Reed

$2.05M Thornburg (arb)

$2M R Davis

$1.4M Nunez

 

Questionable contracts

$2M Abad

 

One could be a stickler and claim we could have signed EE, if we had not signed or acquired Moreland, Reed, Davis, Nunez, Thornburg, Fister, Abad, Holt, Boyer, Rutledge. Could we have got by without Nunez, Fister and others?

 

He might have been able to trade Young after 2016, but that's hindsight BS. We needed a 4th OF'er.

 

I'm not complaining about DD's spending. He's done better than Ben on contracts.

 

 

[Larry Cook]

I think Larry was talking about losing scouting types after DD was hired, not losing coaches.

 

Number 2 was not coaches. I was talking about the guys in the front office in the baseball operations department. Guys who would have reported to desperate dave if desperate Dave had not run them off.

[Larry Cook]

I think the point was that when Dombrowski first joined the team, he had a lot of resources available to him between money and prospects which he did not use wisely (in the opinions of some). Yes, Dombrowski was restrained by the salary cap this year, but if I recall correctly, Henry opened his checkbook to Dombrowski that first offseason. Not to mention the wealth of prospects to deal with.

 

Thank you!