A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[mvp 78]

They were saying: We can find someone else to send our runners on suicide missions. We can find someone else to collect equipment at first base, and we can find someone else to drink the beer.

 

Dear John Henry,

 

I know that you are an avid reader of TalkSox and I just wanted to let you know that I am available for any beer drinking that you need accomplished.

 

Very truly yours,

 

MVP 78

[a700hitter]

Dear John Henry,

 

I know that you are an avid reader of TalkSox and I just wanted to let you know that I am available for any beer drinking that you need accomplished.

 

Very truly yours,

 

MVP 78

I will be sending a resume with a cover letter on a weekly basis.

[moonslav59]

Is Wendell Kim available for 3B coach duries?

 

LOL!

[a700hitter]

Is Wendell Kim available for 3B coach duries?

 

LOL!

I thought that he died.

[Larry Cook]

It should be interesting to find out later on if Cora negotiated for control of which coaches are hired on his staff.

[mvp 78]

I thought that he died.

 

In retirement, Kim suffered from short-term memory loss, and was diagnosed with early-onset Alzheimer's disease.[1] He died on February 15, 2015, in Phoenix at 64.

[a700hitter]

In retirement, Kim suffered from short-term memory loss, and was diagnosed with early-onset Alzheimer's disease.[1] He died on February 15, 2015, in Phoenix at 64....while attempting to score from third base with no one out.

Corrected ^

[Bellhorn04]

Corrected ^

 

There is no end to your cruelty toward baseball coaches, managers and executives.

[a700hitter]

There is no end to your cruelty toward baseball coaches, managers and executives.

Admittedly, I cut them no slack.

[cp176]

Eddie Popowski ??? - Come on!

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Red Sox number four overall prospect Sam Travis received his first small taste of major league action this year. But he didn’t fare as expected in the power department, slugging just .342 in the majors and .375 at the Triple-A level. Alex Speier of Baseball America (subscription required and recommended) writes that he spent a lot of last offseason rehabbing from knee surgery, which may have contributed to his struggles. Still, Travis has been seen in recent years as player with a big-league ready bat who needed to improve his defense at first base, and the former second-rounder’s offensive performance didn’t match the billing in 2017. His vastly improved defense, however, has led the organization to give him a shot in left field in the Dominican League, which could improve his prospect stock headed into next season.

[moonslav59]

How about this?

 

Trade:

Brian Johnson & Bobby Dalbec

Hembree ~$1M

Holt ~$2M Arb

HRam $22.75M x 1 or 2 yrs ($22M luxury)

Castillo $37.7M/3

Total: $63.5M ($25M luxury)

 

For:

Gordon: $37M/3 ($10M luxury)

Volquez $13M/1 ($11M luxury)

Ziegler $9M/1 ($8M luxury)

Total: $59M ($29M Luxury)

 

[Larry Cook]

How about this?

 

Trade:

Brian Johnson & Bobby Dalbec

Hembree ~$1M

Holt ~$2M Arb

HRam $22.75M x 1 or 2 yrs ($22M luxury)

Castillo $37.7M/3

Total: $63.5M ($25M luxury)

 

For:

Gordon: $37M/3 ($10M luxury)

Volquez $13M/1 ($11M luxury)

Ziegler $9M/1 ($8M luxury)

Total: $59M ($29M Luxury)

 

 

Would not they want a starter with more injuries experience?

[jacksonianmarch]

If the Marlins want to shed payroll, why would they add?

[notin]

How about this?

 

Trade:

Brian Johnson & Bobby Dalbec

Hembree ~$1M

Holt ~$2M Arb

HRam $22.75M x 1 or 2 yrs ($22M luxury)

Castillo $37.7M/3

Total: $63.5M ($25M luxury)

 

For:

Gordon: $37M/3 ($10M luxury)

Volquez $13M/1 ($11M luxury)

Ziegler $9M/1 ($8M luxury)

Total: $59M ($29M Luxury)

 

 

It would be more likely if the Sox kept Castillo and Ramirez. At least, more likely Miami would be interested.

 

If the Sox want to move Castillo, he needs to be in MLB. No one wants a $60mill player who excels in AAA ( assuming he does one day). Bryce Brentz is comparatively free and has no trade value..

[Bellhorn04]

How about this?

 

Trade:

Brian Johnson & Bobby Dalbec

Hembree ~$1M

Holt ~$2M Arb

HRam $22.75M x 1 or 2 yrs ($22M luxury)

Castillo $37.7M/3

Total: $63.5M ($25M luxury)

 

For:

Gordon: $37M/3 ($10M luxury)

Volquez $13M/1 ($11M luxury)

Ziegler $9M/1 ($8M luxury)

Total: $59M ($29M Luxury)

 

 

moon, trading HanRam to the Marlins has become quite the white whale for you.

 

Packaging him with Castillo, that's a side-splitter.

 

I note that your $63.5 million figure does not include Hanley's option year.

[notin]

moon, trading HanRam to the Marlins has become quite the white whale for you.

 

 

There's a better chance that I play for the Marlins than HanRam does.

 

However, I could see the Sox potentially having interest in Volquez and/or Ziegler...

[jacksonianmarch]

Hanley Ramirez has literally no trade value. He isn’t being dealt to a team that is shedding payroll. Stop it

[Bellhorn04]

Hanley Ramirez has literally no trade value. He isn’t being dealt to a team that is shedding payroll. Stop it

 

I concur. moon, no more posts about trading HanRam, please.

[moonslav59]

Hanley Ramirez has literally no trade value. He isn’t being dealt to a team that is shedding payroll. Stop it

 

Zeigler has negative trade value.

 

Volquez is close to zero trade value. Together, these two cancel out HRam's salary.

 

Gordon has value, but is getting paid a lot.

[OH FOY]

That Option year makes it almost impossible. Best thing to do with Hanley is keep him and hope for the best. I'm going with he'll get his what 497 Plate Appearances, and he will be owed 44.7 million total. Edited October 28, 2017 by OH FOY!

[harmony]

Zeigler has negative trade value.

 

Volquez is close to zero trade value. Together, these two cancel out HRam's salary.

 

Gordon has value, but is getting paid a lot.

Brad Ziegler, whose fWAR was valued at $3.8 million this year, is owed $9 million in 2018.

 

Edinson Volquez, whose fWAR was valued at $7.7 million this year, is owed $13 million in 2018.

 

Hanley Ramirez, whose fWAR was valued at a negative $3.3 million this year, is owed $22 million 2018 (with the threat of the $22 million option vesting for 2019).

 

The theoretical $11.5 million in combined negative value does not cancel out the $25.3 million in negative value.

Edited October 28, 2017 by harmony

[harmony]

That Option year makes it almost impossible. Best thing to do with Hanley is keep him and hope for the best. I'm going with he'll get his what 497 Plate Appearances, and he will be owed 42.7 million total.

The only way the Red Sox could trade Hanley Ramirez would be to package him with a player or players with surplus value. A trade for an equally bad contract (if the Sox could find one) would negate the payroll savings.

 

A Seattle blogger* has suggested a trade of Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr. for solid Mariner reliever Nick Vincent but the trade of Castillo's contract would have no luxury tax implications because Castillo is not on the 40-man roster. To provide the Sox luxury tax relief, I would suggest Hanley Ramirez, three years of Jackie Bradley Jr. and six years of potential Rule 5 casualty Brian Johnson for Vincent, who posted 1.8 fWAR this year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7555&position=P

 

* https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/10/25/16487712/mariners-red-sox-potential-trade-2018-bullpen-outfield

[OH FOY]

Harmony or anybody, I need some help here please. If the Sox waive Hanley his contract doesn't follow him to next team, right? In other words he is waived, Sox pay him this year, he signs with another team at Vet minimum, and Plate appearances doesn't follow him for next year right?

It's only with the Sox...right?

Edited October 28, 2017 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Brad Ziegler, whose fWAR was valued at $3.8 million this year, is owed $9 million in 2018.

 

Edinson Volquez, whose fWAR was valued at $7.7 million this year, is owed $13 million in 2018.

 

Hanley Ramirez, whose fWAR was valued at a negative $3.3 million this year, is owed $22 million 2018 (with the threat of the $22 million option vesting for 2019).

 

The theoretical $11.5 million in combined negative value does not cancel out the $25.3 million in negative value.

 

Again, you are assuming a player's value is exactly what his value was in just the previous year.

 

Other times, you use last 2-3 year sample sizes to make a point. My guess is GMs do not value HRam at $22M, but they don't view him as a negative either, assuming he recovers from surgery.

 

Ziegler will be 38 next year.

 

I get why the Marlins would not want HRam. Plus, they already have a 1Bman and do not have a DH in their league.

 

They'd probably take Castillo (especially if they trade Stanton) for Ziegler and Volquez, but that would blow up our luxury tax number.

 

[harmony]

Again, you are assuming a player's value is exactly what his value was in just the previous year.

Other times, you use last 2-3 year sample sizes to make a point. My guess is GMs do not value HRam at $22M, but they don't view him as a negative either, assuming he recovers from surgery.

 

Ziegler will be 38 next year.

 

I get why the Marlins would not want HRam. Plus, they already have a 1Bman and do not have a DH in their league.

 

They'd probably take Castillo (especially if they trade Stanton) for Ziegler and Volquez, but that would blow up our luxury tax number.

Then don't assume Edinson Volquez and Brad Ziegler will have the same value they had last year.

 

Red Sox fans often point to 2016 as Hanley Ramirez's productive season but Ramirez's value never has exceeded his $22 million annual salary after posting fWAR valued at a negative $13.9 million, $21.5 million and a negative $3.3 million the last three years:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS#value

 

Even with the positive fWAR in 2016, over the past three years Ramirez has ranked 223rd of 232 qualified hitters in fWAR, keeping company with the likes of Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp, Jayson Werth and Prince Fielder:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&page=8_30

Edited October 28, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Then don't assume Edinson Volquez and Brad Ziegler will have the same value they had last year.

 

Red Sox fans often point to 2016 as Hanley Ramirez's productive season but Ramirez's value never has exceeded his $22 million annual salary after posting fWAR valued at a negative $13.9 million, $21.5 million and a negative $3.3 million the last three years:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS#value

 

Even with the positive fWAR in 2016, over the past three years Ramirez has ranked 223rd of 232 qualified hitters in fWAR, keeping company with the likes of Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp, Jayson Werth and Prince Fielder:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&page=8_30

 

I'm not trying to say HRam is worth anywhere near $22M, but his last 3 year WAR was greatly affected by his poor defense in LF in 2015 and being a DH for much of his other time in Boston. As you know, the DH is penalized in WAR calculations.

 

Interesting, how you chose only the 1 and 3 years sample sizes- not the two year one. From 2016-2017, HRam ranked 7th in DH WAR at + 2.3 and 6th in wRC+ at 112.

 

Yeah, his 93 wRC+ this year was bad, but he still placed 7th among DH's in that category (9th out of 15, if you expand to 400+ PAs)

 

He placed 7th out of 15 in DH OPS and was just .005 from 5th out of 15.

 

I'm not defending HRam. I hated the signing from day one. He's been hurt or playing hurt for much of his time here. I doubt anyone wants him, unless we pay $10-15M or take back salary dump players in return.

 

The Marlins are not a good fit for HRam. I get that. My trade proposal was a bad one. I admit it.

 

Maybe there's an AL team out there with $20M in "dumps" that would swap.

 

[moonslav59]

This may or may not be a good method for determining what positions need the most attention this winter, but here are some positional ranking numbers for 2017 and 2016-2017 samples:

 

2017 Position (2016-2017 ranking)

3rd +5.3 RF Betts (1st at +13.3)

9th +3.2 SS Bogaerts (4th at +8.0)

14th +2.2 LF Beni (17th at +2.8)

8th out of 15 -0.4 DH Ramirez

17th +2.3 CF JBJ (7th at +7.3)

18th +1.9 2B Pedroia (8th at +7.3)

T19th +1.6 C Vazquez (27th +1.5/Leon 20th +2.9)

25th +0.9 1B Moreland

 

Devers at 3B changes the narrative. Two different 1Bmen over the past 2 years and Moreland being a FA makes 1B and or DH the obvious high need area.

 

2017 Team Rankings

4th RF

11th SS

16th 2B

17th C (does not include value with staff)

18th LF

21st CF

24th 1B (I don't get posters who want Moreland back)

28th 3B (Projecting Devers to a 2.4 WAR would have placed us 17th.)

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Zeigler has negative trade value.

 

Volquez is close to zero trade value. Together, these two cancel out HRam's salary.

 

Gordon has value, but is getting paid a lot.

 

Volquez has zero value, I agree. Ziegler has some value as his stuff didn't take an appreciable nosedive. Gordon isn't getting paid a ton. I think you and others need to realize that a 2b with a 3+ WAR season is worth FAR more than the 3 years and $38 mil guaranteed of him through 2020. There will be a team to pay a top 100 prospect and maybe more for Gordon and eat the entire contract. Trying to consider him a salary dump is entirely misguided

[jacksonianmarch]

Lets put it this way. Hanley Ramirez was worth negative WAR in 2017. He can only play DH. He turns 34. He has bilateral chronic shoulder conditions and is coming off shoulder surgery. Oh, and he is owed $22 mil in 2018 with a reachable vesting option for the same amount for 2019. If you deal him, it is to eat dead money or in concert with dealing off a top notch asset on your team. Also, Hanley doesn't get dealt to Miami no matter what, as they are an NL team. If you were to deal Hanley, you would have to move him in the AL and take back an equally bad contract. The sox aren't in a money game right now. They can afford to pay some dead money and hope he recoups his value a bit on the field for your 2018 team