A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[notin]

Why do all of you think small? It's not your money. I will spend $125 next year to watch Red Sox play on MLB Network.

 

My guess is that Sox can spend $250M and my subscription fee will remain the same. So what if it goes up by $25 in 2019.

 

If we want to win, we need impact power bat. Quit pussyfooting around.

 

Why do people get so upset when they are reminded certain players won't fit the budget? It's not necessarily true, but it's also not unrealistic to think there is a spending limit. If the Sox didn't have one, Edwin Encarnacion would be here already.

 

And more important, these posts have zero impact on what this team does. Contrary to what some believe, Sox personnel do not go through this message board looking for ideas, and certainly not for reasons to refute them...

[S5Dewey]

Why do all of you think small? It's not your money. I will spend $125 next year to watch Red Sox play on MLB Network.

 

My guess is that Sox can spend $250M and my subscription fee will remain the same. So what if it goes up by $25 in 2019.

 

If we want to win, we need impact power bat. Quit pussyfooting around.

 

The point is that you're right, it's not our money. It's John Henry's money and we're trying to temper our expectations to conform with what we think he will spend.

[notin]

The point is that you're right, it's not our money. It's John Henry's money and we're trying to temper our expectations to conform with what we think he will spend.

 

Exactly.

 

And it does make acquisitions like Chris Sale pleasant surprises...

[moonslav59]

Why do people get so upset when they are reminded certain players won't fit the budget? It's not necessarily true, but it's also not unrealistic to think there is a spending limit. If the Sox didn't have one, Edwin Encarnacion would be here already.

 

We most certainly have limits, even if it is not a finite line.

 

My personal opinion is that we reset the luxury tax for more than the reason to save money this year. I feel Henry & DD did it with the idea that the budget limit could be significantly higher for the next two years...while the "window" is still open.

 

I'm not sure how high we may go, but I would not be surprised if we go real close to the 2nd tier penalty limit this winter. We may even go over it, but I admit this is only conjecture on my part mixed with maybe some wishful thinking.

 

[moonslav59]

Exactly.

 

And it does make acquisitions like Chris Sale pleasant surprises...

 

Yes, but Sale did not cost much money, unless you count the Moncada bonus.

[d-money]

Sale needs to add some muscle next year.

[Northern Star]

We most certainly have limits, even if it is not a finite line.

 

My personal opinion is that we reset the luxury tax for more than the reason to save money this year. I feel Henry & DD did it with the idea that the budget limit could be significantly higher for the next two years...while the "window" is still open.

 

I'm not sure how high we may go, but I would not be surprised if we go real close to the 2nd tier penalty limit this winter. We may even go over it, but I admit this is only conjecture on my part mixed with maybe some wishful thinking.

 

 

As always, the caveat is that dollars do not necessarily equate to quality. We've already seen that with some of the big contracts handed out.

[moonslav59]

As always, the caveat is that dollars do not necessarily equate to quality. We've already seen that with some of the big contracts handed out.

 

I totally agree.

 

If you look at the biggest contracts each year going back over 15 years, most do not work out well, and many are complete disasters.

 

That being said, it's hard not to continually be lured into the temptation that more signings can give us that edge we so desperately seem to need.

 

I could easily see JD becoming the next HRam, but I doubt he'll be the next Pablo. I keep thinking the odds are in our favor by signing guys like JD, but it hardly ever seems to work out that way.

 

Despite the risk, I'd roll the dice on JD or Moose and maybe even go for a big SP'er, too. It's not my money, so I guess it's all up to Henry and then DD.

[moonslav59]

Sale needs to add some muscle next year.

 

Either that or try to limit his pitches more.

 

The guy has terrible September numbers and declines steadily after May over his career, yet JF let him lead the league in IP.

[a700hitter]

Either that or try to limit his pitches more.

 

The guy has terrible September numbers and declines steadily after May over his career, yet JF let him lead the league in IP.

Or have a big enough lead going into September that it would not be an issue going to a 6 man rotation.

[S5Dewey]

Or have a big enough lead going into September that it would not be an issue going to a 6 man rotation.

 

Yeah, I like that plan best.

[devildavid]

Either that or try to limit his pitches more.

 

The guy has terrible September numbers and declines steadily after May over his career, yet JF let him lead the league in IP.

 

It depends on the price of limiting his pitches. It could lead to more losses if the bullpen can't do its job. Sale played a big role in getting the Sox to the postseason. Scaling him back could undermine that.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, I like that plan best.

 

I get how important winning th division is, but waiting until September is probably too late.

 

He almost got an extra day's rest all through this September anyways, and it didn't help.

 

9/3 normal rest

9/9 +1

9/15 +1

9/20 normal rest

9/26 +1

10/5 +4

 

I think we need to either give him extra day's rest over the whole year or limit his pitches each start. There's no guarantee it will work, but having a 50-50 Sale for the playoffs hurts too much.

 

I'm not one to think, "It's all about the rings not division titles," but I do value rings much more than multiple division wins.

 

 

[Northern Star]

 

I'm not one to think, "It's all about the rings not division titles," but I do value rings much more than multiple division wins.

 

 

They don't stop playing when the season ends, pat everyone on the back and go home.

 

Just curious - why do you bold the font of your posts?

[moonslav59]

They don't stop playing when the season ends, pat everyone on the back and go home.

 

Just curious - why do you bold the font of your posts?

 

I have very poor eyesight, and it became a habit.

 

It makes it easier to find my words vs others.

[moonslav59]

It depends on the price of limiting his pitches. It could lead to more losses if the bullpen can't do its job. Sale played a big role in getting the Sox to the postseason. Scaling him back could undermine that.

 

I get that, and I realize there are no guarantees resting him will make him better in October.

 

I'm not sure what we should do different, if anything.

 

I wouldn't mess with his weight or winter work out regime. We could totally mess him up that way.

[Nick]

He didn't sign EE in 2017 so that he can reset the luxury tax rate back to zero. Don't you pay attention to what's going on?

 

Sox can spend $236,999,999 and pay 20% tax on $20M or $4M in penaltiy for first tier penalty and pay 32% penalty on additional $20M or $6.4M. Combined Penalty is 10.4M in 2018.

 

Had the Sox Not reset the penalty, Sox would have paid 50% tax on $20M or $10M for the first tier penalty and pay 62% penalty on Additional $20M or $12.4M. Combined Penalty for not resetting would have been $22.4 M in 2019.

 

Bottom line is that Sox can spend $236,999,999.99 and pay $10,400,000 penalty.

 

Basically we have $40M to spend on FA's or trade targets such as Stanton.

[moonslav59]

He didn't sign EE in 2017 so that he can reset the luxury tax rate back to zero. Don't you pay attention to what's going on?

 

Sox can spend $236,999,999 and pay 20% tax on $20M or $4M in penaltiy for first tier penalty and pay 32% penalty on additional $20M or $6.4M. Combined Penalty is 10.4M in 2018.

 

Had the Sox Not reset the penalty, Sox would have paid 50% tax on $20M or $10M for the first tier penalty and pay 62% penalty on Additional $20M or $12.4M. Combined Penalty for not resetting would have been $22.4 M in 2019.

 

Bottom line is that Sox can spend $236,999,999.99 and pay $10,400,000 penalty.

 

Basically we have $40M to spend on FA's or trade targets such as Stanton.

 

Yes, but when you project out, let's assume we trade Bogey and JBJ in a 3 or 4- way trade. One can expect they'd be over the $25M luxury cost Stanton will be in just 2-3 years. We could actually save money in 2-3 years and many years afterwards. Many feel like the "cliff" will prevent us from keeping all our young stars. This is one way to avoid losing one anyways, eventually.

 

If we traded Bogey and JBJ, we save about $14M in arb costs just next year. Assuming we have $40M to spend, that makes it $54M:

 

$25M Stanton

$14M Cozart

$8M Nunez

$7M Duda

$54M TOTAL

[Station 13]

Miami won't give Stanton for anything less than Devers and Benentendi.

[moonslav59]

Miami won't give Stanton for anything less than Devers and Benentendi.

 

Then, they keep him for the remainder of his contract. Nobody will give that much talent and control years PLUS pay FA money for anyone.

[oldtimer]

With the Yankees humbling the Guardians tonight we can see at least 3 teams ahead of us in the talent pool. We do need to make moves so anyone thinking we add one bat and stand pat in all other areas is just a wishful thinker. Where we have shown weakness we need to upgrade and do so in such a way that we don't give away the store for 2019, 2020.

[Spudboy]

With the Yankees humbling the Guardians tonight we can see at least 3 teams ahead of us in the talent pool. We do need to make moves so anyone thinking we add one bat and stand pat in all other areas is just a wishful thinker. Where we have shown weakness we need to upgrade and do so in such a way that we don't give away the store for 2019, 2020.

 

Yes. You are correct Sir.

[d-money]

We need to add a power bat. Hopefully DD gets it.

[Nick]

Yes, but when you project out, let's assume we trade Bogey and JBJ in a 3 or 4- way trade. One can expect they'd be over the $25M luxury cost Stanton will be in just 2-3 years. We could actually save money in 2-3 years and many years afterwards. Many feel like the "cliff" will prevent us from keeping all our young stars. This is one way to avoid losing one anyways, eventually.

 

If we traded Bogey and JBJ, we save about $14M in arb costs just next year. Assuming we have $40M to spend, that makes it $54M:

 

$25M Stanton

$14M Cozart

$8M Nunez

$7M Duda

$54M TOTAL

 

Moon, it's my contention that construction of our team is flawed. We need to trade out the pieces on our current roster. Yes we MAY need to trade cost controlled players to acquire some power bats.

 

Note that Betts is projected to earn $9M in his first year of arbitration. His arbitration years will end up HIGHER than first 3 years of Stanton's mega deal, which is back loaded.

 

Your analysis is correct.

 

Our budget is $40M plus our farm hands plus salaries of players traded. This is right up DD's wheelhouse.

[jad]

I still don't understand the RS "needs." Leadership?? They won two division championships: this year without their presumed essential leader Papi. Apparently, in terms of season record, 'leadership' is meaningless. They lost the series because they had four consecutive crappy starting pitching performances. Despite that, they won one game, and would have won two had another ace pitcher, Kimbrel, not totally screwed up. Why does this prove that the FO needs to go after more hitting? And how does any of this get pinned on the manager? Getting rid of Farrell or shaking up the team has nothing to do with the team's actual performance (unless you are arguing that getting another proverbial 'big bat' is going to magically make your starting pitchers perform better in the post-season). Then why do it? To appease fans? or sportswriters? or those who want to go back to the good old days which those of us who have been watching the RS for decades know weren't really good days at all? If it's simply to sell more tickets by giving the team a new look etc., isn't that the kind of thinking that brought in the "future fan favorite" Panda?

[Bellhorn04]

I still don't understand the RS "needs." Leadership?? They won two division championships: this year without their presumed essential leader Papi. Apparently, in terms of season record, 'leadership' is meaningless. They lost the series because they had four consecutive crappy starting pitching performances. Despite that, they won one game, and would have won two had another ace pitcher, Kimbrel, not totally screwed up. Why does this prove that the FO needs to go after more hitting?

 

If you based everything on one series you might be right. But on the season it was our pitching and defense that carried us. It's natural to try to address the team's biggest weakness, and in 2017 that weakness was clearly the offense.

 

We were 10th in MLB in runs scored, but we were also tied for 23rd in park-adjusted OPS+ with a 92, which is pretty horrible.

 

It's also worth nothing that in the first 2 games of the ALDS, while overshadowed by the horrible pitching, the offense was also dismal, putting up a pair of deuces.

[S5Dewey]

My general take on the season is this, and keep in mind that I'm "old school" and therefore believe in some of the old adages.

 

Our pitching staff was better than "good enough" so that's not an issue.

 

We were not "solid up the middle". Catching and CF were solid defensively but Bogaerts is nothing more than a serviceable defensive SS and never has been. His plus was his offense which became mediocre this year. 2B could not have been called any better than mediocre with Pedey missing 1/3 of the season and during those times was replaced with more mediocrity.

 

Power has to come from the corner positions and DH and we didn't get real power from any of them. Add in the defensive nightmare that was 3B and you find a seriously flawed team. IMHO the biggest reason the Sox won their division is because it took so long for the Yankees to gel. And I gagged when typing that.

 

This team has too many question marks going forward.

Will Beni find more power? (Yes)

Will JBJ find more power? (Who cares, if he can play CF the way he does.)

Will Will Mookie find more power? (Great defensive player who can hit for a good average and at least acceptable power)

Will Devers learn to play defense? (Who knows? And to make this situation even worse, Butterfield may go because with Farrell did)

Will Bogaerts improve on either side of the ball? (Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe what we saw this year is who he is, or maybe he was injured.

Will Pedey ever be the Pedey we knew and loved? (Nope, so get over it)

Is Moreland a 1B for a championship team? (Not at all)

Will the real Hanley Ramirez please stand up?

 

So of the nine players listed I see five question marks with negative or unknown answers.

 

Here's what I know for sure. 3B is still a problem. It looked better with Devers there only because the guys before him set the bar as low as they did.

1B is a problem because we need some power from this team and IMO the easiest/best way to find it is at 1B.

 

Let's start there. Martinez may not completely solve our problems but him or a player like him is a start.

I want to see Devers playing baseball somewhere all winter @ 3B. I don't give a s*** if he's only 20 years old. It's time to find out if he's going to be able to handle that position and deal with what we learn.

I am ambivalent about Bogaerts. He's mediocre and can be replaced with more mediocrity. If we can include him in a trade landing a power hitter and a(nother) mediocre shortstop, go for it. It improves the team and also gets rid of a Bora$$ client.

It would be acceptable to have a light hitting solid defense UIF and we've got a couple of those in the minors.

[moonslav59]

Moon, it's my contention that construction of our team is flawed. We need to trade out the pieces on our current roster. Yes we MAY need to trade cost controlled players to acquire some power bats.

 

Note that Betts is projected to earn $9M in his first year of arbitration. His arbitration years will end up HIGHER than first 3 years of Stanton's mega deal, which is back loaded.

 

Your analysis is correct.

 

Our budget is $40M plus our farm hands plus salaries of players traded. This is right up DD's wheelhouse.

 

I've always been open to trading anybody, if I felt it helped the team.

 

I'm open to trading starters for Stanton, but only if the plan includes filling the new holes with bonafide players and not guys like Travis, Hernandez, Lin, Marrero or Holt-- not that this is what you want either.

 

I'd like to hold onto Beni and Devers, but at least including Beni does not open a hole, since Stanton would play LF.

 

If we trade JBJ and Bogey, I'd want Cozart or something better than anything we have in-house.

[moonslav59]

From s%Dewey:

 

My general take on the season is this, and keep in mind that I'm "old school" and therefore believe in some of the old adages.

 

Our pitching staff was better than "good enough" so that's not an issue.

 

For the first time in forever, I'm not for acquiring a pitcher. I wouldn't be against the idea, but I think with all the returning players, we'll be strong and deep.

 

 

We were not "solid up the middle". Catching and CF were solid defensively but Bogaerts is nothing more than a serviceable defensive SS and never has been. His plus was his offense which became mediocre this year. 2B could not have been called any better than mediocre with Pedey missing 1/3 of the season and during those times was replaced with more mediocrity.

 

Power has to come from the corner positions and DH and we didn't get real power from any of them. Add in the defensive nightmare that was 3B and you find a seriously flawed team. IMHO the biggest reason the Sox won their division is because it took so long for the Yankees to gel. And I gagged when typing that.

 

Good take, and problems not easily fixed without major shake-ups- yes, plural.

 

More and more, I'm warming to the idea of moving Devers to 1B. I'm not sure we can afford a season or longer learning curve within the tight window we are in right now.

 

Selling low on Bogey does not make sense, but I'm all ears on any inquiries.

 

Finding a capable back-up for Pedey is a high priority, but spending large on a sub when money is tight, could be an issue.

 

I'm for sticking with JBJ, because I love great D up the middle, and I'm hopeful he can find a way to be more consistent.

 

We're stuck with HRam, but that doesn't mean we can't plan to upgrade 1B AND DH.

 

 

 

This team has too many question marks going forward.

Will Beni find more power? (Yes) Agree

Will JBJ find more power? (Who cares, if he can play CF the way he does.) Agree

Will Will Mookie find more power? (Great defensive player who can hit for a good average and at least acceptable power) I think Mookie hits 30 again next year. I think he had wrist issues this year.

Will Devers learn to play defense? (Who knows? And to make this situation even worse, Butterfield may go because with Farrell did) I doubt Devers gets close to average on D by the end of 2018.

Will Bogaerts improve on either side of the ball? (Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe what we saw this year is who he is, or maybe he was injured. I've given up on his D, which kills me. I think he's our lead-off hitter next year and does well on O.

Will Pedey ever be the Pedey we knew and loved? (Nope, so get over it) Just be healthy most of the year and as close to 100% as possible for October-- maybe too much to ask.

Is Moreland a 1B for a championship team? (Not at all) Totally agree. Bring him back is saying our 2017 offense was good enough.

Will the real Hanley Ramirez please stand up? He will... I hope.

 

So of the nine players listed I see five question marks with negative or unknown answers.

Well just about all declined from 2016 and most declined 2 years in a row. For their ages, that does not make too much sense. I'm hopeful at least half show improvement.

 

Here's what I know for sure. 3B is still a problem. It looked better with Devers there only because the guys before him set the bar as low as they did.

1B is a problem because we need some power from this team and IMO the easiest/best way to find it is at 1B.

 

Maybe, we already found our 1Bman: Devers. (That would solve the defense problem on the left-side infield. Is there a worse place to be weak on D?)

 

Then, sign Moose... maybe even Moose and Squirrel, I mean Moose & JD.

 

 

Let's start there. Martinez may not completely solve our problems but him or a player like him is a start.

I want to see Devers playing baseball somewhere all winter @ 3B. I don't give a s*** if he's only 20 years old. It's time to find out if he's going to be able to handle that position and deal with what we learn.

I am ambivalent about Bogaerts. He's mediocre and can be replaced with more mediocrity. If we can include him in a trade landing a power hitter and a(nother) mediocre shortstop, go for it. It improves the team and also gets rid of a Bora$$ client.

It would be acceptable to have a light hitting solid defense UIF and we've got a couple of those in the minors.

 

I'd have to see what we are offered for Bogey, but I'm all ears.

[oldtimer]

My general take on the season is this, and keep in mind that I'm "old school" and therefore believe in some of the old adages.

 

Our pitching staff was better than "good enough" so that's not an issue.

 

We were not "solid up the middle". Catching and CF were solid defensively but Bogaerts is nothing more than a serviceable defensive SS and never has been. His plus was his offense which became mediocre this year. 2B could not have been called any better than mediocre with Pedey missing 1/3 of the season and during those times was replaced with more mediocrity.

 

Power has to come from the corner positions and DH and we didn't get real power from any of them. Add in the defensive nightmare that was 3B and you find a seriously flawed team. IMHO the biggest reason the Sox won their division is because it took so long for the Yankees to gel. And I gagged when typing that.

 

This team has too many question marks going forward.

Will Beni find more power? (Yes)

Will JBJ find more power? (Who cares, if he can play CF the way he does.)

Will Will Mookie find more power? (Great defensive player who can hit for a good average and at least acceptable power)

Will Devers learn to play defense? (Who knows? And to make this situation even worse, Butterfield may go because with Farrell did)

Will Bogaerts improve on either side of the ball? (Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe what we saw this year is who he is, or maybe he was injured.

Will Pedey ever be the Pedey we knew and loved? (Nope, so get over it)

Is Moreland a 1B for a championship team? (Not at all)

Will the real Hanley Ramirez please stand up?

 

So of the nine players listed I see five question marks with negative or unknown answers.

 

Here's what I know for sure. 3B is still a problem. It looked better with Devers there only because the guys before him set the bar as low as they did.

1B is a problem because we need some power from this team and IMO the easiest/best way to find it is at 1B.

 

Let's start there. Martinez may not completely solve our problems but him or a player like him is a start.

I want to see Devers playing baseball somewhere all winter @ 3B. I don't give a s*** if he's only 20 years old. It's time to find out if he's going to be able to handle that position and deal with what we learn.

I am ambivalent about Bogaerts. He's mediocre and can be replaced with more mediocrity. If we can include him in a trade landing a power hitter and a(nother) mediocre shortstop, go for it. It improves the team and also gets rid of a Bora$$ client.

It would be acceptable to have a light hitting solid defense UIF and we've got a couple of those in the minors.

 

Our infield starting player defense was generally mediocre to bad, with 1st base being the strongest of the lot. I agree with your assessment of Pedey. He was great, but time and injuries have left him a part time player and he skills are diminishing. Bogey is a serviceable SS but not a great defender. I have hopes that a different hitting coach will work closely with him too rework his swing and plate approach. He is 6'1" and 210 #s. He should have more power but needs to make changes to realize his offensive potential. i am hoping that will happen, but only if Bogey would commit to make changes.

Devers was a major defensive liability. Your concept of having play winter ball at 3rd base is one way to see if he can make the improvement needed. His hitting is already fine. A secoond approach would be to assume he will mature into a heftier player and move him to 1st and have him learn the position over the winter. So we need a Nunez type player as a minimum and a 1st/3rd base power hitter. Beyond that we need to be open to alternatives.

 

So basically in the infield we need help at 2nd, 1st as Moreland probably won't return and Hanley is not a full time 1st baseman. SS is questionable and probably isn't a priority and 3rd may need some help depending on how Devers is handled. i agree that the catching position is solid with Vaz. Leon is a good backup but might be replaced if the opportunity arises.

 

I agree that the pitching is okay and we have the pieces to go forward. Whether Price's elbow stands up to the rigors of a full season will remain an open question.

 

The outfield is another question mark in my mind. We have a very athletic group there now. Beni showed his youth in a lot of defensive throws that weren't so good, but otherwise we were very good defensively. JBJ is a very erratic hitter though and we wound up with him hitting 9th for a reason. He will turn 28 at the beginning of the 2018 season and has had the experience to define who he is as a hitter. I don't see him improving and would consider a trade if we could find a better player. Mookie could shift to center if needed and we could either add a CF or a RF. If we would spend the money, there would be some interesting candidates for the outfield.

 

Utility positions need a complete reset as do some of the coaches. Whoever the new manager is will determine who he wants for coaches.