A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[OH FOY]

Houston just released him too, got nothing for him. Imagine him in that line-up now.

[a700hitter]

DD isn’t an “outside the box” thinker. He’s not a guy who regularly deals big league talent for big league talent. He’s a guy who either deals kids for proven vets or when he rebuilds, the other way around. His only two outside the box deals involved getting Scherzer (huge win) by dealing Granderson and getting Greene in the Didi deal by dealing Robbie Ray (big loss).

And he acts quickly, almost impulsively.

[OH FOY]

Bradley is what he is. 2016 was the anomaly. He's going to be a 2-3WAR player who will hit a touch better than the average CFer and play lights out defense. You don't need to platoon him. But you also shouldn't be lulled into thinking he can be a middle of the order bat. He hits 8th or 9th in a good lineup and you live with the middling offensive production

 

So you think Bradley has a lot of Trade value then. Right? Use him as Center Piece?

[moonslav59]

You guys think JBJ is worth more to this team than Benni? I just don't see this. Way, way too much value on his Defense. Benni was always a Centerfielder. 1st full season in the Majors too. Benni too valuable, ceiling too high. I don't see JBJ hitting .300 and 25+ Hrs and 100 or close 100 RBI's. Benni is capable of doing this. Don't see it from JBJ.

The Defense you save wont equal run production. AND I like JBJ too. Give Benni a year in Center and see if this is mistake, if it is move Betts back to Center. Benni to right. Other wise 93 wins if were Lucky and Yanks will have 95+ wins.

 

I love JBJ, but Beni has more years of control, so to me, Beni has more value.

[moonslav59]

If the sox sign JD, what do you think his contract will be?

 

MLBTR thinks he might get 6 years!

 

I'm thinking $100M/5.

[Spudboy]

MLBTR thinks he might get 6 years!

 

I'm thinking $100M/5.

 

That is f***ing nuts. What happened to 4/84?

[a700hitter]

That is f***ing nuts. What happened to 4/84?

I am still pissed about missing out on Encarnacion for chump change. f*** the reset. Gold Glove Moreland had a bigger offer from the Guardians and DD wooed him to Boston, not realizing that EE's price would be so reasonable.

[moonslav59]

Bradley is what he is. 2016 was the anomaly. He's going to be a 2-3WAR player who will hit a touch better than the average CFer and play lights out defense. You don't need to platoon him. But you also shouldn't be lulled into thinking he can be a middle of the order bat. He hits 8th or 9th in a good lineup and you live with the middling offensive production

 

Maybe 2017 was the anomaly, after all, he maintained an .830+ OPS for 2015 and 2016 (8 months total).

 

My guess is, he settles somewhere in between (.780ish).

[Spudboy]

I am still pissed about missing out on Encarnacion for chump change. f*** the reset. Gold Glove Moreland had a bigger offer from the Guardians and DD wooed him to Boston, not realizing that EE's price would be so reasonable.

 

Yeah it sure looks like Mr. Polyester f***ed that one up. I could see him shying away from 5/100 and worse because of the cap and all. But he got hosed on that deal.

[a700hitter]

Bradley is what he is. 2016 was the anomaly. He's going to be a 2-3WAR player who will hit a touch better than the average CFer and play lights out defense. You don't need to platoon him. But you also shouldn't be lulled into thinking he can be a middle of the order bat. He hits 8th or 9th in a good lineup and you live with the middling offensive production

 

Maybe 2017 was the anomaly, after all, he maintained an .830+ OPS for 2015 and 2016 (8 months total).

 

My guess is, he settles somewhere in between (.780ish).

He's a nice trade chip, and we have Betts for CF. I would part with any of the killer B's except Betts, who I would tell to lose the gold shoes and the bling and cut it out with the pinch of salt. He isn't yet Big Papi. He has had 1 big year. If he wants to make the big bucks, he has to string together a few great seasons.

[moonslav59]

That is f***ing nuts. What happened to 4/84?

 

I'd prefer $84M/4, but to get him it might take 5.

 

Every big FA signing is an overpay.

 

You either do it, stand pat or make big trades that open more holes elsewhere or compromise the future.

 

I'm not saying pay him "whatever it takes", because there are limits. His defense is not much better than EE, so maybe all he gets is $66M/3.

[Nick]

Team was built around starting pitching for 2017.

 

Price came off the rotation.

 

Has there ever been a Cy Young pitcher following up with the season Procello had?

 

Sox did the right thing by resetting the penalty. BUT NOW IT'S TIME TO f*** THE LUXURY TAX THREASHHOLD.

[a700hitter]

Team was built around starting pitching for 2017.

 

Price came off the rotation.

 

Has there ever been a Cy Young pitcher following up with the season Procello had?

 

Sox did the right thing by resetting the penalty. BUT NOW IT'S TIME TO f*** THE LUXURY TAX THREASHHOLD.

I was wondering about that same question about Porcello. I think it was an historic fall off.

[devildavid]

I don't think Dombrowski had a chance at all to sign Encarnacion.

 

edwin_encarnacion_says_he_signl

[a700hitter]

I don't think Dombrowski had a chance at all to sign Encarnacion.

 

edwin_encarnacion_says_he_signl

There were other articles during this season about how he had wanted to sign with Boston but never even got a call from them. It was pretty well known that Encarnacion loved playing in Fenway and Big Papi was lobbying the FO to sign him as his replacement.

[moonslav59]

I thought EE was going to get more than $20M. We may have been able to sign him and stay below the limit, but we'd have had no Moreland, no Nunez, No Reed, No Davis and in hindsight, we could have traded Young and/or Holt to make it fit.

 

I do think resetting the luxury tax was a high priority.

 

Let's hope we did it for a reason, and "make-up" for not signing EE by doing what to takes to get JD or Moose.

[Nick]

I thought EE was going to get more than $20M. We may have been able to sign him and stay below the limit, but we'd have had no Moreland, no Nunez, No Reed, No Davis and in hindsight, we could have traded Young and/or Holt to make it fit.

 

I do think resetting the luxury tax was a high priority.

 

Let's hope we did it for a reason, and "make-up" for not signing EE by doing what to takes to get JD or Moose.

 

Moon

 

Betts, JBJ, Beni, Xander, Pablo, Pedey and Hanley ALL UNDERPERFOMED. (yeah I know this was Beni's rookie of the year, but remember he was a SHOO IN for ROY). That's 7 out of 9.

 

Price was hurt TWICE. E Rod did not make any improvements. Hell he's hurt all the time.

 

Porcello was no better than Wade Miley. He was a batting practice pitcher.

 

Hell I'm amazed we won the Division.

 

We can talk all we want about EE but the penalty rate had to be reset going forward. Now there's really no restrictions. In my mind, we have $40M to spend. Arbitration raises will be covered by contract expiration of Young and Moreland and couple of others (Abad, trading Holt?, etc)

 

Look ahead, don't waste time looking back.

Edited October 12, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Arbs --from MLBTR estimates: (year of arb)

~$9.1M Pomeranz (3 of 3) yes

~$8.2M Betts (1 of 3) yes

~$7.6M Bogey (2 of 3) yes, even if to trade him

~$5.9M Bradley (2 of 4) yes

~$3.6M Kelly (3 of 3) yes

~$2.7M ERod (1 of 4) yes

~$2.1M Thornburg (2 of 3) I guess, depending on prognosis

~$2.1M Leon (2 of 4) probably

~$2.1M Smith (1 of 3) yes

~$2.0M Ross (3 of 3) Depends on prognosis

~$2.0M Holt (2 of 3) Non-tender or trade

~$1.5M Vaz (1 of 3) yes

~$1.2M Wright (1 of 3) yes

~$0.9M Workman (2 of 3) yes

~$0.6M Rutledge (2 of 3) Non-tender

~$0.6M Swihart (1 of 4) yes

$52.2M in arbs

 

Max, we could lose about $6-7M to clear more space for a signing and some rule 5 guys.

 

Thornburg, Holt, Ross and Rutledge

[a700hitter]

Moon

 

Betts, JBJ, Beni, Xander, Pablo, Pedey and Hanley ALL UNDERPERFOMED. (yeah I know this was Beni's rookie of the year, but remember he was a SHOO IN for ROY). That's 7 out of 9.

 

Price was hurt TWICE. E Rod did not make any improvements. Hell he's hurt all the time.

 

Porcello was no better than Wade Miley. He was a batting practice pitcher.

 

Hell I'm amazed we won the Division.

 

We can talk all we want about EE but the penalty rate had to be reset going forward. Now there's really no restrictions. In my mind, we have $40M.

 

Look ahead, don't waste time looking back.

Pablo underperformed? He didn't perform at all, but we should have expected that.

 

Bradley didn't under perform. His OPS of .726 is exactly his career average

Bogaerts didn't under perform by much .746 OPS vs a .748 career OPS

Vasquez over performed .735 OPS vs. .666 career OPS

Nunez our Trade Deadline pickup OPS'd at .892

 

Pedroia and Hanley were injured

 

Every year some guys over perform and some under perform due to injury or otherwise. It was not as one-sided as you make it seem. The big loss was losing a Hall of Fame bat and not replacing it.

[devildavid]

Pablo underperformed? He didn't perform at all, but we should have expected that.

 

Bradley didn't under perform. His OPS of .726 is exactly his career average

Bogaerts didn't under perform by much .746 OPS vs a .748 career OPS

Vasquez over performed .735 OPS vs. .666 career OPS

Nunez our Trade Deadline pickup OPS'd at .892

 

Pedroia and Hanley were injured

 

Every year some guys over perform and some under perform due to injury or otherwise. It was not as one-sided as you make it seem. The big loss was losing a Hall of Fame bat and not replacing it.

 

Moon

 

Betts, JBJ, Beni, Xander, Pablo, Pedey and Hanley ALL UNDERPERFOMED. (yeah I know this was Beni's rookie of the year, but remember he was a SHOO IN for ROY). That's 7 out of 9.

 

Price was hurt TWICE. E Rod did not make any improvements. Hell he's hurt all the time.

 

Porcello was no better than Wade Miley. He was a batting practice pitcher.

 

Hell I'm amazed we won the Division.

 

We can talk all we want about EE but the penalty rate had to be reset going forward. Now there's really no restrictions. In my mind, we have $40M to spend. Arbitration raises will be covered by contract expiration of Young and Moreland and couple of others (Abad, trading Holt?, etc)

 

Look ahead, don't waste time looking back.

 

I guess more precisely you should have said their performances were major drop offs from 2016. So maybe it is tough to say what exactly is their expected performance level.

[sk7326]

Pablo underperformed? He didn't perform at all, but we should have expected that.

 

Bradley didn't under perform. His OPS of .726 is exactly his career average

Bogaerts didn't under perform by much .746 OPS vs a .748 career OPS

Vasquez over performed .735 OPS vs. .666 career OPS

Nunez our Trade Deadline pickup OPS'd at .892

 

Pedroia and Hanley were injured

 

Every year some guys over perform and some under perform due to injury or otherwise. It was not as one-sided as you make it seem. The big loss was losing a Hall of Fame bat and not replacing it.

 

Bradley performed at about what could be expected

Bogaerts decidedly underperformed - a 4-5 win player fell by a win or two ... of course injuries can explain that possibly/probably - a step down the improvement curve which you expect from kiddos

Vasquez improved, which you'd expect. But it was improvement in line with what you'd expect given his age/profile. Excellent defense, a good, but empty BA while taking good at-bats.

 

The core guys had largely decent seasons, but no leaps - which was necessary to be able to absorb's Ortiz loss. I mean Betts season was not as good as last year, even if it was still outstanding and worthy of a few downballot MVP votes.

[a700hitter]

Bradley performed at about what could be expected

Bogaerts decidedly underperformed - a 4-5 win player fell by a win or two ... of course injuries can explain that possibly/probably - a step down the improvement curve which you expect from kiddos

Vasquez improved, which you'd expect. But it was improvement in line with what you'd expect given his age/profile. Excellent defense, a good, but empty BA while taking good at-bats.

 

The core guys had largely decent seasons, but no leaps - which was necessary to be able to absorb's Ortiz loss. I mean Betts season was not as good as last year, even if it was still outstanding and worthy of a few downballot MVP votes.

I agree with your assessment, although I don't think XB's season was such a decline. I think this might be what he is.

 

The big mistake by the FO was thinking that as a group they would all take a leap forward enough to cover for Papi leaving. I called that out as a mistaken assumption well before the season started.

[moonslav59]

I think when looking at players with 3-5 years experience, counting a player's rookie or even second year in the bigs against him is not a very accurate way of determining what a player's "norm" is.

 

Most players improve after their initial 1-3 years. Some start out great, and then pitchers discover how to get them out, so occasionally, you'll see a player with a nice first partial season and then drop off. In those cases, not counting their first year(s) helps get a more accurate picture of their "norm".

 

We had a lot of players with 2-5 years of MLB experience. Here's a look at their 2015-2016 numbers combined and then their 2017 numbers:

 

Betts .861 > .803

J B J .834 > .726

Pedey .814 > .760

HRam .804 > .750

Young .803 > 709

Bogey .789 > 746

Leon .720 > .644

Holt .719 > .548

Vaz .585 > .735

Moreland .767 >.769

 

I don't have any data, right now, to prove it, but I'm pretty sure a player that is pre-prime or prime and maybe even slightly post prime is more likely to come closer to his recent two year numbers than his career numbers.

 

 

As you can see, the declines are less than from 2016 to 2017 alone, but the fact that everyone but Vaz declined and one stayed about even (Moreland).

 

[devildavid]

I think when looking at players with 3-5 years experience, counting a player's rookie or even second year in the bigs against him is not a very accurate way of determining what a player's "norm" is.

 

Most players improve after their initial 1-3 years. Some start out great, and then pitchers discover how to get them out, so occasionally, you'll see a player with a nice first partial season and then drop off. In those cases, not counting their first year(s) helps get a more accurate picture of their "norm".

 

We had a lot of players with 2-5 years of MLB experience. Here's a look at their 2015-2016 numbers combined and then their 2017 numbers:

 

Betts .861 > .803

J B J .834 > .726

Pedey .814 > .760

HRam .804 > .750

Young .803 > 709

Bogey .789 > 746

Leon .720 > .644

Holt .719 > .548

Vaz .585 > .735

Moreland .767 >.769

 

I don't have any data, right now, to prove it, but I'm pretty sure a player that is pre-prime or prime and maybe even slightly post prime is more likely to come closer to his recent two year numbers than his career numbers.

 

 

As you can see, the declines are less than from 2016 to 2017 alone, but the fact that everyone but Vaz declined and one stayed about even (Moreland).

 

 

I think 2017 is not indicative of how the young core will perform in the future. Bogey was hurt, so I expect him to improve in 2018. Your two year barometer seems reasonable and fair for what we should expect in the future. The only thing that throws it off, of course, is the players health.

[sk7326]

I agree with your assessment, although I don't think XB's season was such a decline. I think this might be what he is.

 

The big mistake by the FO was thinking that as a group they would all take a leap forward enough to cover for Papi leaving. I called that out as a mistaken assumption well before the season started.

 

Oh it was a decline - the contact was not as good, the OPS+ fell badly. But again, the type of injury he had is the sort of thing which gives me a lot of pause before getting too harsh. Hand injuries are the sort of thing which can ruin an offensive season. Even if the injury has nominally healed - it's messing with the most intricate part of the hitting mechanics.

[a700hitter]

Oh it was a decline - the contact was not as good, the OPS+ fell badly. But again, the type of injury he had is the sort of thing which gives me a lot of pause before getting too harsh. Hand injuries are the sort of thing which can ruin an offensive season. Even if the injury has nominally healed - it's messing with the most intricate part of the hitting mechanics.

His OPS was 2 points below his career average. I think you are overstating it.

[a700hitter]

I think when looking at players with 3-5 years experience, counting a player's rookie or even second year in the bigs against him is not a very accurate way of determining what a player's "norm" is.

 

Most players improve after their initial 1-3 years. Some start out great, and then pitchers discover how to get them out, so occasionally, you'll see a player with a nice first partial season and then drop off. In those cases, not counting their first year(s) helps get a more accurate picture of their "norm".

 

We had a lot of players with 2-5 years of MLB experience. Here's a look at their 2015-2016 numbers combined and then their 2017 numbers:

 

Betts .861 > .803

J B J .834 > .726

Pedey .814 > .760

HRam .804 > .750

Young .803 > 709

Bogey .789 > 746

Leon .720 > .644

Holt .719 > .548

Vaz .585 > .735

Moreland .767 >.769

 

I don't have any data, right now, to prove it, but I'm pretty sure a player that is pre-prime or prime and maybe even slightly post prime is more likely to come closer to his recent two year numbers than his career numbers.

 

 

As you can see, the declines are less than from 2016 to 2017 alone, but the fact that everyone but Vaz declined and one stayed about even (Moreland).

 

Should we also drop out their peak year? I don't believe in cherry picking stats like that. Your career average is your career average. Good years will bring it up and bad years will have it decline, but it is all the player's career.

[moonslav59]

Should we also drop out their peak year? I don't believe in cherry picking stats like that. Your career average is your career average. Good years will bring it up and bad years will have it decline, but it is all the player's career.

 

Probably the best indicator of norm would include dropping the best and worst years, but I'm talking specifically about players only in the league 2-5 years. Often, their first season or two influences their career number too much. Some players take a while to adjust. I'm not saying career numbers are useless. Maybe taking the career average and averaging it with the past 2 year sample size might be best. There are all kinds of "what ifs" like injuries in the past two years.

 

A guy like JBJ is a tough one to figure out. Not only is he so streaky within a season, he's had two very long slumps before and after the 10 months from Aug '15 to May '17, where he was over .800. What's the real JBJ? What's his norm?

 

Nobody knows.

 

My point was that most players follow some sort of bell curve with blips and outliers here and there. I found it strange that all of our younger players, with the exception of Vaz went down at a time most are going up. Maybe their most recent "up" were all outliers at the same time- certainly that is possible, but it is not probable.

 

My guess is some or most will bounce back and maybe 1 or 2 will do better than even 2016.

[a700hitter]

Probably the best indicator of norm would include dropping the best and worst years, but I'm talking specifically about players only in the league 2-5 years. Often, their first season or two influences their career number too much. Some players take a while to adjust. I'm not saying career numbers are useless. Maybe taking the career average and averaging it with the past 2 year sample size might be best. There are all kinds of "what ifs" like injuries in the past two years.

 

A guy like JBJ is a tough one to figure out. Not only is he so streaky within a season, he's had two very long slumps before and after the 10 months from Aug '15 to May '17, where he was over .800. What's the real JBJ? What's his norm?

 

Nobody knows.

 

My point was that most players follow some sort of bell curve with blips and outliers here and there. I found it strange that all of our younger players, with the exception of Vaz went down at a time most are going up. Maybe their most recent "up" were all outliers at the same time- certainly that is possible, but it is not probable.

 

My guess is some or most will bounce back and maybe 1 or 2 will do better than even 2016.

With short termers, no season should be dropped. Otherwise, it is just playing games.

 

Edit: Haven't you heard of the Sophomore Slump? It is a common thing for players to take a step back after some success.

[Bellhorn04]

Should we also drop out their peak year? I don't believe in cherry picking stats like that. Your career average is your career average. Good years will bring it up and bad years will have it decline, but it is all the player's career.

 

I mostly agree. We can project our asses off, but at the end of the day the historical numbers are the only thing that's real.