A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Spudboy]

Can we let Moreland walk away into the sunset? Please!

 

We need to add major power, and we only really have Moreland's slot opening up.

 

Signing Moreland adds nothing to the 2018 team.

 

He is very cheap, plays solid defense ( even if he is not really GG ) and has provided just what was expected of him despite playing a chunk of the season with a broken toe.

 

Make a trade for Stanton and Moreland is a very good fit.

[moonslav59]

Moon is talking about adding $39. mil to the payroll. Ask him.

 

You know I hate long term massive deals but a player like Stanton is one I would make an exception for.

 

As far as signing Betts or others I would burn that bridge when the time comes.

 

After all, the Sox only have two more years of their "window" so go for it or shut the f*** up about winning a WS title any time soon.

 

Stanton's luxury tax hit is only $25M a year for the remainder of his contract.

 

It's not the money that prevents the deal, it's the money plus the holes we'd open up to get him. There may not be enough money to fill them to respectability.

 

Beni should get better next year. trading him will not be easy to replace.

[moonslav59]

He is very cheap, plays solid defense ( even if he is not really GG ) and has provided just what was expected of him despite playing a chunk of the season with a broken toe.

 

Make a trade for Stanton and Moreland is a very good fit.

 

Why not try to improve at 1B, a position where 30-40 Hrs are expected?

 

Moreland did slightly better than expected this year, but let's not gush over a below average overall 1Bman.

[Spudboy]

I actually think the window might be 3 more years, but the next 2 are our best shots.

 

We went for broke with all the prospect trades, so why stop now?

 

Spend to $236M or even more. All we lose by going over $237 in 10 slots on our draft pick.

 

My guess is, we can cut loose some smaller salaries like maybe Holt and maybe even Leon and Thornburg to get us able to spend close to $45-50M.

 

It's Henry's money, and I won't blame him for not wanting to go over $237M, but I think he should and might spend close to that threshold.

 

So Stanton is too expensive?

 

Holt will be back and I don't see the Sox f***ing up a pretty good catching tandem.

[Station 13]

I don't mean to be rude since I like you but who do see as comparable in free agency?

 

My idea is may not be realistic but so far no one has presented definitive proof that it can't be done.

 

Someone name JD Martinez who is a Dombrowski guy, has 45HR this year in just over 400AB. He hit 29HR in 232AB with Arizona, a much more favorable environment than in Detroit. He could be sign for cash, John Henry got a blank check surely for a player like that.

 

I don't see how Stanton would leave Miami, what would they wow Miami with to pry him away?

[Spudboy]

Why not try to improve at 1B, a position where 30-40 Hrs are expected?

 

Moreland did slightly better than expected this year, but let's not gush over a below average overall 1Bman.

 

Who the f*** expects 30-40 HR from a 1st baseman anymore? How many teams get that production from 1st base?

[harmony]

Who the f*** expects 30-40 HR from a 1st baseman anymore? How many teams get that production from 1st base?

Twelve teams got at least 30 home runs from a first baseman this year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,d

[Spudboy]

Someone name JD Martinez who is a Dombrowski guy, has 45HR this year in just over 400AB. He hit 29HR in 232AB with Arizona, a much more favorable environment than in Detroit. He could be sign for cash, John Henry got a blank check surely for a player like that.

 

Okay.

 

If you believe his recent production is who he will be going forward.

 

I don't see any concerns with Stanton producing for the next 5 years. Barring injuries, of course.

 

Do you see Martinez being a full time DH? What happens to Hanley? Who sits in the outfield? You think platooning is going to work?

[Spudboy]

Twelve teams got at least 30 home runs from a first baseman this year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,d

 

How many teams did not get 30 from their 1st baseman?

[Station 13]

Okay.

 

If you believe his recent production is who he will be going forward.

 

I don't see any concerns with Stanton producing for the next 5 years. Barring injuries, of course.

 

Do you see Martinez being a full time DH? What happens to Hanley? Who sits in the outfield? You think platooning is going to work?

 

Martinez has a 146OPS+ with Detroit over 4 season, that is Stanton's career. That's about as good as there is in free agency.

 

He plays OF, and that opens up possibly moving JBJ. I don't picture him as a regular DH, surely Han-ram can share duties and be happy right?

[harmony]

How many teams did not get 30 from their 1st baseman?

Eleven teams -- including the Red Sox -- failed to get at least 30 home runs from the first base position:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2017&lg=MLB&stat=HR

Edited October 10, 2017 by harmony

[Spudboy]

Eleven teams -- including the Red Sox -- failed to get at least 30 home runs from the first base position:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2017&lg=MLB&stat=HR

 

So that is only 23 teams.

[Spudboy]

Martinez has a 146OPS+ with Detroit over 4 season, that is Stanton's career. That's about as good as there is in free agency.

 

He plays OF, and that opens up possibly moving JBJ. I don't picture him as a regular DH, surely Han-ram can share duties and be happy right?

 

Maybe.

 

He has hit 30 or more HR twice and is 31 years old next season.

[harmony]

So that is only 23 teams.

Click on the links.

 

Twelve teams had at least one individual first baseman with at least 30 home runs; 18 teams did not.

 

Eleven teams failed to get at least 30 home runs from the first-base position; 19 teams got at least 30 home runs from the first-base position.

[Spudboy]

Click on the links.

 

Twelve teams had at least one individual first baseman with at least 30 home runs; 18 teams did not.

 

Eleven teams failed to get at least 30 home runs from the first-base position; 19 teams got at least 30 home runs from the first-base position.

 

Thank you.

 

You bolstered my point.

[moonslav59]

So Stanton is too expensive?

 

Holt will be back and I don't see the Sox f***ing up a pretty good catching tandem.

 

No, by himself he is not.

 

We can easily afford $25M, but if we trade Beni and Bogey, we'll need a SS and still a DH and/or 1Bman. I'm not sure we can afford Stanton's $25M plus what it will cost to fill the holes we have and the new holes created when trading for him.

 

I'd love to find a way to get him without creating new problems elsewhere.

[moonslav59]

Who the f*** expects 30-40 HR from a 1st baseman anymore? How many teams get that production from 1st base?

 

Are you serious?

 

1) Who expects it? Me. And, you should, too. We finished last in HRs and have an opening at 1B; where else are we going to get a major increase in HRs other than 1B? (Yes, Stanton jumps to mind, but finding a power hitting 1Bman should be less costly- both in terms of money and players lost in trade. JD Martinez may get us 40.)

 

2) 12 teams had 35 or more HRs from the 1B position this year, and 19 had 30 or more. That's 2/3rds who not only expected it but got it.

 

3) Only 4 teams had less HRs than Boston's 1Bmen (25), and it blows my mind how many posters want Moreland back again.

 

4) Even adding 20 HRs at 1B will probably not be enough. Yes, adding 40 to LF alone would have moved us up from 27th in HRs to 16th this year, but we likely need to add 20-30+ HRs at 2 positions.

 

[moonslav59]

How many teams did not get 30 from their 1st baseman?

 

19

 

23 got 27 or more.

 

Only 4 had less HRs than Boston's 25.

[Nick]

Go big or go home.

 

You can always add supporting players to anchors, such as Stanton or Votto. What you can't do is keep adding supporting talent to mediocre group and expect great results. Yes, our offense right now is mediocre.

 

Do we wait another year to confirm what we know to be true? Our offense sucks. No power in power league?

Edited October 10, 2017 by Nick

[Maxbialystock]

Are you serious?

 

1) Who expects it? Me. And, you should, too. We finished last in HRs and have an opening at 1B; where else are we going to get a major increase in HRs other than 1B? (Yes, Stanton jumps to mind, but finding a power hitting 1Bman should be less costly- both in terms of money and players lost in trade. JD Martinez may get us 40.)

 

2) 12 teams had 35 or more HRs from the 1B position this year, and 19 had 30 or more. That's 2/3rds who not only expected it but got it.

 

3) Only 4 teams had less HRs than Boston's 1Bmen (25), and it blows my mind how many posters want Moreland back again.

 

4) Even adding 20 HRs at 1B will probably not be enough. Yes, adding 40 to LF alone would have moved us up from 27th in HRs to 16th this year, but we likely need to add 20-30+ HRs at 2 positions.

 

 

Moreland had 22 home runs this year. The most in MLB at 1b this year was 39. I think you need to work on your math a little.

 

You know way more about trade possibilities than I will ever know, but you have convinced me (as have others) that a big deal next year would definitely put the Sox in luxury tax territory which I gather John Henry wants to avoid. So here is my view of things--

 

1. Everyone had a down year this year except I think Vazquez. I think the hitting will improve next year if the same guys are back, including Devers--whether or not DD decides to hang onto Moreland. I definitely want to keep Beni in LF next year and think his homer production will increase even though 20 wasn't all that bad.

 

2. If Sale and Price are healthy, the rotation could be pretty good and better than this year. Again, no big acquisitions needed. Ditto the bullpen.

 

3. As it is/was, this team won its second straight AL East title and this time gave a better account of itself in the ALDS against an Astros team with much better hitting and, as it turned out, a better rotation.

 

4. The problem with my sanguine view of things is that the Yankees are looking very tough next year (and this year). Ditto the Astros and Guardians. Thus the pressure to do something productive in the offseason. Still, I would be fine with a stand pat approach even though, as you pointed out on page one, even that ain't cheap.

Edited October 10, 2017 by Maxbialystock

[Nick]

Moreland had 22 home runs this year. The most in MLB at 1b this year was 39. I think you need to work on your math a little.

 

You know way more about trade possibilities than I will ever know, but you have convinced me (as have others) that a big deal next year would definitely put the Sox in luxury tax territory which I gather John Henry wants to avoid. So here is my view of things--

 

1. Everyone had a down year this year except I think Vazquez. I think the hitting will improve next year if the same guys are back, including Devers--whether or not DD decides to hang onto Moreland. I definitely want to keep Beni in LF next year and think his homer production will increase even though 20 wasn't all that bad.

 

2. If Sale and Price are healthy, the rotation could be pretty good and better than this year. Again, no big acquisitions needed. Ditto the bullpen.

 

3. As it is/was, this team won its second straight AL East title and this time gave a better account of itself in the ALDS against an Astros team with much better hitting and, as it turned out, a better rotation.

 

4. The problem with my sanguine view of things is that the Yankees are looking very tough next year (and this year). Ditto the Astros and Guardians. Thus the pressure to do something productive in the offseason. Still, I would be fine with a stand pat approach even though, as you pointed out on page one, even that ain't cheap.

 

 

You play to win the World Series. Not to be the next Atlanta Braves.

[moonslav59]

Moreland had 22 home runs this year. The most in MLB at 1b this year was 39. I think you need to work on your math a little.

 

My numbeers come straight from baseball reference. I'm talking positional HRs and our 1B position sucked in the rankings (27th). Our biggest need is HRs. 1B is an HR position. Status quo at 1B is not a viable option.

 

 

You know way more about trade possibilities than I will ever know, but you have convinced me (as have others) that a big deal next year would definitely put the Sox in luxury tax territory which I gather John Henry wants to avoid.

 

I disagree. Henry reset the luxury tax, IMO, just so he could go way over the next 2 years (to finish out "the window").

 

 

So here is my view of things--

 

1. Everyone had a down year this year except I think Vazquez. I think the hitting will improve next year if the same guys are back, including Devers--whether or not DD decides to hang onto Moreland.

 

2. If Sale and Price are healthy, the rotation could be pretty good and better than this year. Again, no big acquisitions needed. Ditto the bullpen.

 

3. As it is/was, this team won its second straight AL East title and this time gave a better account of itself in the ALDS against an Astros team with much better hitting and, as it turned out, a better rotation.

 

4. The problem with my sanguine view of things is that the Yankees are looking very tough next year (and this year). Ditto the Astros and Guardians. Thus the pressure to do something productive in the offseason. Still, I would be fine with a stand pat approach even though, as you pointed out on page one, even that ain't cheap.

 

I agree, we will get better, even with no additional improvements made. I can't see 7 of our 8 top returning 2016 positional players declining for 3 straight years.

 

We will spend this winter, and it should not be for Moreland.

 

We need a big power boost, and most likely from more than one position. Staying even at 1B makes it nearly impossible to gain enough elsewhere, without trading for Stanton- which would likely subtract from 2-3 other positions thereby lessening his positive impact with his power.

 

To me, slightly improving power at 1B (HRam-Duda platoon) and DH with JD Martinez or a Mostakas- JD signing with Devers moved to 1B makes the most sense.

 

[illinoisredsox]

Moreland had 22 home runs this year. The most in MLB at 1b this year was 39. I think you need to work on your math a little.

 

You know way more about trade possibilities than I will ever know, but you have convinced me (as have others) that a big deal next year would definitely put the Sox in luxury tax territory which I gather John Henry wants to avoid. So here is my view of things--

 

1. Everyone had a down year this year except I think Vazquez. I think the hitting will improve next year if the same guys are back, including Devers--whether or not DD decides to hang onto Moreland. I definitely want to keep Beni in LF next year and think his homer production will increase even though 20 wasn't all that bad.

 

2. If Sale and Price are healthy, the rotation could be pretty good and better than this year. Again, no big acquisitions needed. Ditto the bullpen.

 

3. As it is/was, this team won its second straight AL East title and this time gave a better account of itself in the ALDS against an Astros team with much better hitting and, as it turned out, a better rotation.

 

4. The problem with my sanguine view of things is that the Yankees are looking very tough next year (and this year). Ditto the Astros and Guardians. Thus the pressure to do something productive in the offseason. Still, I would be fine with a stand pat approach even though, as you pointed out on page one, even that ain't cheap.

 

Max, he's talking team totals. In the case of the Red Sox, Moreland hit 21 as a first baseman this season (plus 1 pinch hit homer), Hanley hit 4 (plus 19 as a DH).

[illinoisredsox]

You play to win the World Series. Not to be the next Atlanta Braves.

 

And even though they only won it once, those Braves got there 5 times in 9 seasons.

[moonslav59]

Moreland had 22 home runs this year. The most in MLB at 1b this year was 39. I think you need to work on your math a little.

 

I was talking team HRs, but Moreland still finished 26th in individual HRs by players who played some 1B last year.

 

Individual HRs by players who played some 1B last year:

'

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,d

Edited October 10, 2017 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

The 40 Man Roster:

Eight Free Agents to be (with 2017 Luxury Tax cost):

Young $6.5M

Moreland $5.5M

Reed $7.75M (about $2.6M)

Nunez $4.2M (about $1.4M from Sox)

Davis $6M (about $2M from Sox)

Abad $2.0M

Fister $1.8M

Boyer $0.6M

Total: ~$22M

 

The 40 man Roster (luxury tax 2018 cost):

[37 non-free agents on roster]

$31.0M Price

$22.0M HRam

$20.6M Porcello

($19M Sandoval- not on roster/ counts against luxury tax budget)

$13.8M Pedroia

$12.0M Kimbrel

($11.7M Castillo- not on 40 man roster/does not count on luxury budget)

$11.5M Sale (option)

Total Under Contract: ~$131M

 

Arbs --from MLBTR estimates: (year of arb)

~$9.1M Pomeranz (3 of 3)

~$8.2M Betts (1 of 3)

~$7.6M Bogey (2 of 3)

~$5.9M Bradley (2 of 4)

~$3.6M Kelly (3 of 3)

~$2.7M ERod (1 of 4)

~$2.1M Thornburg (2 of 3)

~$2.1M Leon (2 of 4)

~$2.1M Smith (1 of 3)

~$2.0M Ross (3 of 3)

~$2.0M Holt (2 of 3) Non-tender?

~$1.5M Vaz (1 of 3)

~$1.2M Wright (1 of 3)

~$0.9M Workman (2 of 3)

~$0.6M Rutledge (2 of 3) Non-tender?

~$0.6M Swihart (1 of 4)

$52.2M in arbs

 

Pre-arbs:

Beni, Devers, Barnes, Hembree, Scott, Hernandez, Maddox, Travis, Lin, Marrero, Taylor, Velazquez, Johnson, Elias, Owens (+3 players from Rule 5 or Minor League FA lists)

Total Pre-Arb Costs: $5M

 

Total Estimated Cost (No Free Agent Signings Counted):

$188M +13M Player benefits= $201M

 

Luxury Tax Budget Limit: $207M

 

Estmated $5-10M under the limit without any signings.

 

Maybe if we don’t tender contracts to Holt and Rutledge we can come in around the $197M mark.

 

Rule 5 (must be added to 40 man roster on 11/29/17 or risk loss):

Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball, Jalen Beeks, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey, Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Enmanuel De Jesus, Jhonathan Diaz, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Isaias Lucena, Danny Mars, Kyle Martin, Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Jhon Nunez, Justin Pacchioli, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Fernando Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Chandler Shepherd, Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz, Cole Sturgeon, Aneury Tavarez, Carlos Tovar, Jantzen Witte

 

Minor League Free Agents (will become free agents in November, 2017 if not added to 40 man roster or signed to a contract):

Jeremy Barfield, Brian Bogusevic, Bryce Brentz, Dan Butler, Ryan Court, Jacob Dahlstrand, Matt Dominguez, Conrad Gregor, Shawn Haviland, Williams Jerez, Kyle Kendrick, Deiner Lopez, Heiker Meneses, Edgar Olmos, Mike Olt, Mitchell Osnowitz, Tim Roberson, Steve Selsky, Jose Sermo, Aneury Tavarez, Herny Urrutia, Elih Villaneuva, Marcus Walden, Jordan Weems

 

I won't get into some choices to be made this winter, as there will be plenty of time for that, but clearly our biggest need is a clean-up hitter.

The position needed most is 1B or 3B, if we move Devers to 1B (perhaps prematurely) and DH. With HRam's option vesting for 2019, if he gets 497 PAs next year AND passes the physical. That will likely be an issue discussed too much this winter. Then there's the can HRam play 1B debate.

 

Here are some possible FA signings that fit the need I mentioned plus a few other big names that we could sign and then trade who we have now to fill the corner IF & DH slots.

 

1B: Santana, Hosmer, Duda, Morrison, Reynolds, Moreland, Alonso

3B: Moustakas, Frazier, Y Escobar

SS: Cozart (trade Bogey or move him to 3B and Devers to 1B?)

2B/DH/IF: Nunez

DH/OF: JD Martinez, J Bruce, Granderson

SP: Arrieta, Darvish, Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn

 

Lots of choices, but not many great ones who play 1B.

 

Let the debates begin...

 

 

This, I have to say one more time, is one of the reason why I think you are one great poster. We can agree to disagree on a whole bunch of stuff, but you have it all over me on assembling stats and numbers. In a NY Times review of Rick Atkinson's brilliant 3d book of his trilogy on the US Army in World War II--this volume is called Guns At Last Light--his narrative style was compared to a pointillist artist who uses many small facts and insights to create a larger tapestry that tells a compelling story. You do something like that when you produce these gems.

[jacksonianmarch]

The lux tax for 2018 is $197 mil. It was $195 this year and the last numbers I saw for the sox for 2017 shows they exceeded that by $4 mil.

[moonslav59]

This, I have to say one more time, is one of the reason why I think you are one great poster. We can agree to disagree on a whole bunch of stuff, but you have it all over me on assembling stats and numbers. In a NY Times review of Rick Atkinson's brilliant 3d book of his trilogy on the US Army in World War II--this volume is called Guns At Last Light--his narrative style was compared to a pointillist artist who uses many small facts and insights to create a larger tapestry that tells a compelling story. You do something like that when you produce these gems.

 

]'m honored by the comp. Thanks.

 

We may disagree a lot, but I value your insights.

[moonslav59]

The lux tax for 2018 is $197 mil. It was $195 this year and the last numbers I saw for the sox for 2017 shows they exceeded that by $4 mil.

 

I read somewhere it was $207M.

 

The real number is the secondary penalty phase level, which I think is $237M, but if it's $227M, then we are squeezed, unless we decide to drop our draft pick 10 slots and go for broke.

[OH FOY]

I keep reading Moustakas by you where you putting him? You sign him put him at 3rd right, now what do you do with Devers Trade him? Edited October 10, 2017 by OH FOY!