2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[moonslav59]

The Rays weren't sending him to BOS. Not a chance.

 

Why wouldn't they want to unload the most over-rated player to a divisional rival?

 

My point was meant in an overall sense- not just for Longoria.

 

Compared to what has been given up for Stanton, Ozuna, Longoria and others, we got hosed in the Kimbrel, Sale & Pom deals.

[moonslav59]

So we could harvest it for Longoria instead of wasting it on the likes of Sale and Kimbrel ?

 

I loved the Sale deal.

[Spudboy]

@mike_petriello

 

A very fun an extreme troll-face fact is that Denard Span out-hit Evan Longoria in 2017...

 

Span: .272/.329/.427 102 wRC+

Longoria: .261/.313/.424 96 wRC+

 

Longoria is probably the most overrated 3b playing right now.

 

I have always though he was somewhat over rated but he was a Sox Killer so I'm glad that he is gone.

[cp176]

I have always though he was somewhat over rated but he was a Sox Killer so I'm glad that he is gone.

 

I hated seeing Longoria coming to the plate. We might have all over rated him for sure but if we have over rated Longoria, it says more about us than anything else. Outside of Sale and maybe Betts I guess, there really isn't one player on our current crop who I think that I would genuinely miss if they were not reupped when their contracts are up. It's the people who fret about cliffs and ******** windows who are doing the worrying not me. If we had to start from scratch, I think that I would be ok with it. In order for this group to move forward, they need some help from the outside for sure. I would not save one penny in an effort to hoard my loot so I would have enough to future sign many of these guys. They are ours so we cheer for them.

[jacksonianmarch]

What a dumb trade. The Rays should be doing backflips. Longo was only elite when he faced us. His 2017 was bad and he was overpaid. Instead, the Rays get two serviceable arms, a legit SS prospect in Arroyo and a corner OFer with some worth assuming TB eats some salary

[dgalehouse]

Looks like the Orioles , Rays and Blue Jays have pretty much given up trying to compete in the East. Let's hope MLB does not become like the NBA , where you have a handful of top teams , and the rest are basically trash.

[moonslav59]

What a dumb trade. The Rays should be doing backflips. Longo was only elite when he faced us. His 2017 was bad and he was overpaid. Instead, the Rays get two serviceable arms, a legit SS prospect in Arroyo and a corner OFer with some worth assuming TB eats some salary

 

I think people sometimes put too much stock into just a player's most recent season. While I always feel like the fangraph's value page is over inflated, they has Longoria worth $20M this year and over $25M in his previous 4 seasons. (he was over $32M in 3 of his previous 4 seasons.) My guess is, he is not viewed as overpaid.

 

Longoria made $13M this year

[Spudboy]

I think people sometimes put too much stock into just a player's most recent season. While I always feel like the fangraph's value page is over inflated, they has Longoria worth $20M this year and over $25M in his previous 4 seasons. (he was over $32M in 3 of his previous 4 seasons.) My guess is, he is not viewed as overpaid.

 

Longoria made $13M this year

 

I am still in the dark as to how a player can be "worth" 25-32 mil. a year yet make only 13 mil a year.

[mvp 78]

I am still in the dark as to how a player can be "worth" 25-32 mil. a year yet make only 13 mil a year.

 

Pretend money. Stanton was "worth" $55.5M last year. Talk about a franchise crippling deal!

[Slasher9]

So what you're saying is that we are headed towards a steep, vertical, or overhanging face of rock, earth, or ice, perhaps even a precipice?

 

lol. +2 points FJ....

[Slasher9]

What a dumb trade. The Rays should be doing backflips. Longo was only elite when he faced us. His 2017 was bad and he was overpaid. Instead, the Rays get two serviceable arms, a legit SS prospect in Arroyo and a corner OFer with some worth assuming TB eats some salary

 

i wonder if derek jeter took some notes.

[Kimmi]

We will not get him for less than five years; we will likely not even get him for that many years (5). While I agree with you that he isn't worth a long contract at high AAV, thats what it will take to sign him. If we do not improve offensively its going to be a long long summer.

 

It probably will take at least 5 years to sign him. I think it's too long, but I could live with that, depending on the dollar amount. I would prefer to offer him 4 years at a higher AAV and see if he'd bit.

 

That said, maybe if Dombrowski waits it out long enough, he might become this year's Encarnacion, as Moon said.

[Kimmi]

To be honest with you, the team is heading into salary cap hell anyway and they need to win now. If JD is out of his mind for 2 seasons and sucks for 3, yet you get a title out of it then drop off into mediocrity, is it that bad? You have to win now.

 

If I knew up front that a title would be guaranteed, I'd be all over it. But my problem with the 'win now' philosophy has always been that the 'winning now' part is never guaranteed, and you sacrifice your future at the same time.

[Kimmi]

So what you're saying is that we are headed towards a steep, vertical, or overhanging face of rock, earth, or ice, perhaps even a precipice?

 

LOL Jack Nicely done.

[Bellhorn04]

If I knew up front that a title would be guaranteed, I'd be all over it. But my problem with the 'win now' philosophy has always been that the 'winning now' part is never guaranteed, and you sacrifice your future at the same time.

 

But the patient approach doesn't guarantee anything either. If the playoffs truly are a crapshoot, there is no approach that guarantees a championship.

[Kimmi]

But the patient approach doesn't guarantee anything either. If the playoffs truly are a crapshoot, there is no approach that guarantees a championship.

 

Yes, I get that. But when we start each season, I want our team to be good enough 'on paper' for us to contend. I'll say again that since Henry took over ownership, I have felt that way going into every season, even in the 2 years that we finished last.

 

My fear with the win now approach is that at the end of the window, we will face 3 years or so when we know as we enter the season that we will not make the playoffs.

 

Championships are never guaranteed. Put together a team every year that can contend, without mortgaging the future. Yes, that's possible to do.

[baseball jones]

its time to sign Nunez and Reed.i was thinking it was their plan all along to do so but now i'm not so sure anymore.

[moonslav59]

I am still in the dark as to how a player can be "worth" 25-32 mil. a year yet make only 13 mil a year.

 

The fangraph's value page is highly skeptical.

 

Longoria signed for long term security at a discount rate.

[Bellhorn04]

Put together a team every year that can contend, without mortgaging the future. Yes, that's possible to do.

 

It remains to be seen if it can continue to be done indefinitely. There have been changes that have been geared to create more and more parity.

 

The only possible advantages a team can have are money and smarts. We've got the money. We took a big hit in the smarts department when Theo left. I'm interested to see if he can keep the Cubs a contender for a long time, especially as his core of Bryant and Rizzo get more expensive.

[Bellhorn04]

The fangraph's value page is highly skeptical.

 

It's my understanding that the FanGraphs dollar values are based on free agent salaries and WAR's. As a result the dollar values seem inflated. Right now it's something like $7 million per 1 WAR. It has a lot to do with how many free agents have been expensive busts.

[notin]

It remains to be seen if it can continue to be done indefinitely. There have been changes that have been geared to create more and more parity.

 

The only possible advantages a team can have are money and smarts. We've got the money. We took a big hit in the smarts department when Theo left. I'm interested to see if he can keep the Cubs a contender for a long time, especially as his core of Bryant and Rizzo get more expensive.

 

John Schuerholz made a good run at it...

[a700hitter]

Cleveland Guardians replaced Santana with Yonder Alonso.

[notin]

Cleveland Guardians replaced Santana with Yonder Alonso.

 

Yonder Alonso = Option Year Hero, Exhibit A.

[moonslav59]

Yonder Alonso = Option Year Hero, Exhibit A.

 

$16M/2 with an $8M vesting 3rd year.

 

[notin]

$16M/2 with an $8M vesting 3rd year.

 

 

So they signed him just long enough to convince Manny Machado to join him in Cleveland. ..

[a700hitter]

Yonder Alonso = Option Year Hero, Exhibit A.

what is that?

[Larry Cook]

So they signed him just long enough to convince Manny Machado to join him in Cleveland. ..

 

Makes Moreland look like a steal!

[harmony]

Makes Moreland look like a steal!

Yonder Alonso, who is 30 years old, has posted 5.7 fWAR in 806 career games, including 2.4 fWAR in 142 games this year.

 

Mitch Moreland, who is 32 years old, has posted 5.1 fWAR in 922 career games, including 0.9 fWAR in 149 games this year.

 

Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 1.0 in 122 games for Alonso and 1.2 in 138 games for Moreland:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3086&position=1B

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2530&position=1B

[Larry Cook]

Yonder Alonso, who is 30 years old, has posted 5.7 fWAR in 806 career games, including 2.4 fWAR in 142 games this year.

 

Mitch Moreland, who is 32 years old, has posted 5.1 fWAR in 922 career games, including 0.9 fWAR in 149 games this year.

 

Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 1.0 in 122 games for Alonso and 1.2 in 138 games for Moreland:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3086&position=1B

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2530&position=1B

 

Clearly those two months Moreland played through the broken toe damaged his stats line!

 

I’m still calling him a steal!

[oldtimer]

Tomorrow Machado will be taken off the offer list as no one will meet what Baltimore seems to want. Longoria and Alonso are now gone. Still waiting for a move by DD although I am beginning to wonder how serious we are. I would think we could have at the least gotten a left handed reliever by now. I still would target Nunez as he would fill a half season need and be a valuable backup for other positions this coming season.

 

The big bat appears to only be JD at this point and it would probably only come if the deal is reasonable and probably at the expense of JBJ being traded. Inject power and lose defense. Net gain, but is it worth the contract that would be involved?