2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[moonslav59]

While Bradley is a very good even outstanding defensive center fielder, I think Red Sox fans tend to over value him. Quite frankly, his inconsistency at the plate drives me batty. I think the sox would be a much better club with him being traded if and when they sign Martinez.

 

There's a reason GMs keep asking about JBJ.

 

I get the reasoning for trading JBJ, if we sign JD, but we're better with JBJ playing CF than HRam DH'ing, and that's what the real choice comes down to, assuming JD signs with us.

[notin]

While Bradley is a very good even outstanding defensive center fielder, I think Red Sox fans tend to over value him. Quite frankly, his inconsistency at the plate drives me batty. I think the sox would be a much better club with him being traded if and when they sign Martinez.

 

Or fans value him properly because they put more emphasis on defense rather than focusing solely or heavily on the offensive contributions of a player who only bats 4-5 times per game....

[moonslav59]

Or fans value him properly because they put more emphasis on defense rather than focusing solely or heavily on the offensive contributions of a player who only bats 4-5 times per game....

 

JBJ is also one of our best base runners. With all the running blunders we had this year, losing one of our best will not help us in that area as well.

 

Assuming we get JG, unless we can get a very solid SP'er for JBJ (plus maybe Johnson or Bekks), I'd just keep everyone but Brentz.

[S5Dewey]

While Bradley is a very good even outstanding defensive center fielder, I think Red Sox fans tend to over value him. Quite frankly, his inconsistency at the plate drives me batty. I think the sox would be a much better club with him being traded if and when they sign Martinez.

 

I see that scenario as the Sox scoring more runs but also giving up more runs. JBJ has a 162 game career avg. of 72 RBI's while JDM's is 100. The question becomes whether that 28 RBI difference is worth the loss in defense. In order for that trade to happen we'd have to weaken the defense at two positions. I see it as being a wash at best.

[S5Dewey]

There's a reason GMs keep asking about JBJ.

 

I get the reasoning for trading JBJ, if we sign JD, but we're better with JBJ playing CF than HRam DH'ing, and that's what the real choice comes down to, assuming JD signs with us.

 

But it's not just that. If we shift Beni over to CF we've weakened our CF defense and if we install JDM in LF we've weakened the defense there also.

 

This whole thing makes no sense to me. The strongest part of the Sox is their OF defense so they shouldn't be weakening it to add a little offense.

[cp176]

Not that I think there is much of a chance that JBJ gets traded, I would really have to question how much of a difference moving Benintendi to his natural centerfield poison would make. I don't think that JD for beni in left would really make that much difference. I think that the big gain might come in who we got as a result of a JBJ trade.

[notin]

I see that scenario as the Sox scoring more runs but also giving up more runs. JBJ has a 162 game career avg. of 72 RBI's while JDM's is 100. The question becomes whether that 28 RBI difference is worth the loss in defense. In order for that trade to happen we'd have to weaken the defense at two positions. I see it as being a wash at best.

 

But at least it on't be a wash in payroll...

[notin]

Not that I think there is much of a chance that JBJ gets traded, I would really have to question how much of a difference moving Benintendi to his natural centerfield poison would make. I don't think that JD for beni in left would really make that much difference. I think that the big gain might come in who we got as a result of a JBJ trade.

 

If that's the case, should the far more valuable Benintendi be the one who gets traded?

[OH FOY]

I never hear the Players that are offered for Bradley. These reporters hear everything, I never saw a Trade that makes sense for the Sox at this point. Also have to look at other teams where a Trade helps both teams. I don't see many.

[cp176]

I never hear the Players that are offered for Bradley. These reporters hear everything, I never saw a Trade that makes sense for the Sox at this point. Also have to look at other teams where a Trade helps both teams. I don't see many.

 

Me either - that is probably why he hasn't been traded. He doesn't have to even be an everyday player to still have great value to us.

[cp176]

If that's the case, should the far more valuable Benintendi be the one who gets traded?

 

I don't think so. He is going to become even a better fielder as time goes on and it just looks like he is going to be more productively consistent at the plate.

Tough job being the GM I think. It is all about stick handling the process to come up with the best team overall that you can come up with.. It isn't about being the best defensive or offensive team. They are not stand alone items. DD has to sift his way through in an effort to have the best team that he can have. He won't make everybody happy for sure.

[mvp 78]

Or fans value him properly because they put more emphasis on defense rather than focusing solely or heavily on the offensive contributions of a player who only bats 4-5 times per game....

 

He's about top 10 defensive CF per metrics. Bad bat. They should just keep him around because I don't think he'll get a crazy FA offer.

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ is one of those players who is tough to project because of his wild inconsistency with the bat. In 2015 (extrapolated) and 2016 he was a 5 WAR player - All-Star caliber. In 2017 he was a 2.5 WAR player - just above average. What will he be in 2018? No one has a clue, really.

[S5Dewey]

He's about top 10 defensive CF per metrics. Bad bat. They should just keep him around because I don't think he'll get a crazy FA offer.

 

I just don't have much faith in things like RF/150 (or whatever it's called) as it pertains to JBJ. I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong but here's how RF/150 seems to work.

 

There are "trained observers" who are timing how long it takes JBJ and everyone else to get from where he starts to where the ball comes down. They then plug that time into some hocus-pocus formula and come up with a "Range Factor". That's fine if a player gets to where the ball comes down exactly as the ball gets there. However, JBJ is usually standing there waiting for the ball to come down. Consequently he's had more range than his RF shows. The hocus-pocus formula might be fine if JBJ were only waiting for the ball occasionally - that would make those few times inconsequential - but he makes a habit of being there waiting for the ball.

 

This is like my hearing that RF/150 doesn't really apply to LFs in Fenway park because of the wall, and the more "exceptions" I see and hear about the less faith I have in RF/150, and since RF is a part of WAR.... well, you see where I'm going.

[a700hitter]

Longoria to the Giants for Christian Arroyo and Denard Span.

Pablo’s Giant’s career is done. We will pay him for sitting on a couch the next two years. Edited December 26, 2017 by a700hitter

[harmony]

JBJ is one of those players who is tough to project because of his wild inconsistency with the bat. In 2015 (extrapolated) and 2016 he was a 5 WAR player - All-Star caliber. In 2017 he was a 2.5 WAR player - just above average. What will he be in 2018? No one has a clue, really.

Steamer projects Jackie Bradley Jr. with a 2018 WAR of 3.0 in 571 plate appearances while FanGraphs Depth Charts projects Bradley at 3.2 WAR in 631 plate appearances:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12984&position=OF

 

Baseball Reference projects Bradley with a 2018 slash line of .255/.336/.450/.786 in 534 plate appearance but apparently makes no projection that includes defense:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradlja02.shtml

[S5Dewey]

JBJ is one of those players who is tough to project because of his wild inconsistency with the bat. In 2015 (extrapolated) and 2016 he was a 5 WAR player - All-Star caliber. In 2017 he was a 2.5 WAR player - just above average. What will he be in 2018? No one has a clue, really.

 

I agree with this, which is why I see JBJ's offensive ceiling being so high that his outstanding defense makes it crazy to even think about dealing him. If JBJ gets traded and has a breakout year there are going to be a lot of posters here who are going to be ready to have DD's head on a platter, forgetting how those same posters wanted to trade him.

[mvp 78]

I just don't have much faith in things like RF/150 (or whatever it's called) as it pertains to JBJ. I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong but here's how RF/150 seems to work.

 

There are "trained observers" who are timing how long it takes JBJ and everyone else to get from where he starts to where the ball comes down. They then plug that time into some hocus-pocus formula and come up with a "Range Factor". That's fine if a player gets to where the ball comes down exactly as the ball gets there. However, JBJ is usually standing there waiting for the ball to come down. Consequently he's had more range than his RF shows. The hocus-pocus formula might be fine if JBJ were only waiting for the ball occasionally - that would make those few times inconsequential - but he makes a habit of being there waiting for the ball.

 

This is like my hearing that RF/150 doesn't really apply to LFs in Fenway park because of the wall, and the more "exceptions" I see and hear about the less faith I have in RF/150, and since RF is a part of WAR.... well, you see where I'm going.

 

Your eyes are untrained and biased. I trust the stats more than I trust TS posters yelling about how JBJ is the greatest CFer they ever saw.

[a700hitter]

There are "trained observers" who are timing how long it takes JBJ and everyone else to get from where he starts to where the ball comes down.

They are probably eating cotton candy and texting during the game. Edited December 26, 2017 by a700hitter

[S5Dewey]

Your eyes are untrained and biased. I trust the stats more than I trust TS posters yelling about how JBJ is the greatest CFer they ever saw.

 

I'll give you that my eyes are untrained and biased but that doesn't mean that there aren't some flaws in RF/150 that I pointed out.

 

BTW, I'd love to know what all that "training" consists of. LOL

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ has all the tools to be one of the best outfielders in the game IMO. He might benefit from using his judgment a little better. One thing I noticed last year following the game threads was a surprising number of comments about him making ill-advised throws, and in fact he did get a minus rating for throwing for 2017.

[mvp 78]

https://www.elnuevodia.com/deportes/beisbol/nota/pacientesalexcoraylosmediasrojasdeboston-2384997/

 

Poor translation:

 

“Right now we are still in the process (of finding hitters). Part of the reason for the lull is that there is no deadline (for signing hitters) and the market has been extremely slow. It looks like January has become the new December in terms of signings and changes. But we are approaching the temporary lull with patience,” Boston’s new manager said, who stressed that the club has some options.

 

Also mentions he wants JD.

[mvp 78]

JBJ has all the tools to be one of the best outfielders in the game IMO. He might benefit from using his judgment a little better. One thing I noticed last year following the game threads was a surprising number of comments about him making ill-advised throws, and in fact he did get a minus rating for throwing for 2017.

 

He has a strong, but erratic arm.

[Spudboy]

He has a strong, but erratic arm.

 

Yep.

 

I have always loved watching him throw and sometimes gun guys down. It's even fun to watch him throw to first.

 

But it seems more of his throws to home have been off-target in 2016 and 2017. Just my "untrained" eyes telling me this.

 

Still, he is a very fun and exciting player to watch out there.

 

WAR, UZR/150, and other metrics aside, he is just fun to watch when he is playing CF. You always get the feeling that he COULD make a good to spectacular play at any time.

 

To me as a fan of baseball that has value.

[moonslav59]

But it's not just that. If we shift Beni over to CF we've weakened our CF defense and if we install JDM in LF we've weakened the defense there also.

 

This whole thing makes no sense to me. The strongest part of the Sox is their OF defense so they shouldn't be weakening it to add a little offense.

 

I'm not for weakening our OF defense at two positions at the same time, but that's not the whole equation. It's not just the offensive upgrade of JD over JBJ vs worse defense at LF and CF; it's the solid pitcher we'd be gaining by trading JBJ. That plus the offensive upgrade could make the overall plan a plus.

 

Again, I'd rather keep JBJ and work out a rotation plan where HRam does not vest, Moreland never starts vs a LHP and maybe JBJ and Beni sit vs some LHPs more than they would have without JD.

 

PAs

1B: 450 Moreland v RHPs/ 250 HRam vs LHPs

DH: 500 JD Martinez/ 200 HRam

LF: 530 Beni/170 JD

CF: 550 JBJ/ 150 Beni

RF: 700 Betts/20 Beni

 

700 Betts & Beni

670 JD

550 JBJ

450 HRam & Moreland

 

6 players for 5 slots

 

(Too bad HRam can't play 2B.)

 

[moonslav59]

I just don't have much faith in things like RF/150 (or whatever it's called) as it pertains to JBJ. I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong but here's how RF/150 seems to work.

 

There are "trained observers" who are timing how long it takes JBJ and everyone else to get from where he starts to where the ball comes down. They then plug that time into some hocus-pocus formula and come up with a "Range Factor". That's fine if a player gets to where the ball comes down exactly as the ball gets there. However, JBJ is usually standing there waiting for the ball to come down. Consequently he's had more range than his RF shows. The hocus-pocus formula might be fine if JBJ were only waiting for the ball occasionally - that would make those few times inconsequential - but he makes a habit of being there waiting for the ball.

 

This is like my hearing that RF/150 doesn't really apply to LFs in Fenway park because of the wall, and the more "exceptions" I see and hear about the less faith I have in RF/150, and since RF is a part of WAR.... well, you see where I'm going.

 

It's UZR/150.

 

I'm no expert on the formula, but it makes more sense to me, to trust it than observers like us, who watch other players just a handful of games each year.

 

It measures all the balls hit into a players zone (the "Z" in UZR). Trained observers, who naturally will add a subjective element into the numbers try to determine that catchability factor of each ball hit into a player's zone. Based on the difficulty of the play, players are rewarded more for making more difficult plays than easier ones. Perhaps, because JBJ makes some difficult plays look easier, he gets dinged when he shouldn't, but still, the overall methodology and theory of UZR/150 makes a lot of sense to me. I know it is not perfect, but they rotate the observers to try an minimize personal bias, and all of the observers are trained and cross checked tested.

 

There's no way I can possibly know for sure, if there are 9-10 better CF'ers in MLB than JBJ. It's just something I can never know for sure. Since I have watched just about every play of ever Sox dame since the early 80's, I can compare him to other Sox CF'ers and say with certainty that he is the best defensive Sox CF I have seen.

 

Being ranked about 10th does not seem right to me, and UZR/150 should not be the only tool used to rank defenders, but there is a strong chance there are 11-12 great defensive CF'ers in MLB today- just as good or better than JBJ. Saying 10 or 11 are better does not make JBJ any worse than we all think he is. He's a great defender- he just may not be top 9 or 10.

[mvp 78]

Saying 10 or 11 are better does not make JBJ any worse than we all think he is. He's a great defender- he just may not be top 9 or 10.

 

It means that he has less value than most people on here think he does.

[cp176]

I agree with this, which is why I see JBJ's offensive ceiling being so high that his outstanding defense makes it crazy to even think about dealing him. If JBJ gets traded and has a breakout year there are going to be a lot of posters here who are going to be ready to have DD's head on a platter, forgetting how those same posters wanted to trade him.

 

SS - We all love JBJ out there in centerfield. I'm a little confused by this discussion. Seems like some of us just like him more than others. I don't hear anybody saying that we should trade him. Of course it is possible. It should be. Almost all of them are tradeable.

[mvp 78]

Rankings for dWAR (300 PA's):

Vaz - 10th

Mitch - 17th

Pedey - 5th

Xander - 19th

Betts - 1st

JBJ - 9th

Benny - 21st

 

UZR 150:

Mitch - 7th

Pedey - 2nd

Xander - 25th

Betts - 1st

JBJ - 16th

Benny - 24th

[notin]

I'll give you that my eyes are untrained and biased but that doesn't mean that there aren't some flaws in RF/150 that I pointed out.

 

BTW, I'd love to know what all that "training" consists of. LOL

 

Actually Range Factor has none of those flaws. It's simply (putouts plus assists)/games or (putouts plus assists)/(9 innings) for RF/9. Rf/150 is just those numbers over 150 games.

 

If you meant UZR has flaws, certainly it does. It's based on human observation applied against standard criteria. If you think this negates it and your solo observations are equal or better simply because UZR isn't perfect, that logic is horribly flawed for an abundance of reasons.