Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020

[Slasher9]

You get some credit points for being able to accept that you can be wrong too sometimes. We had some fun with the Pomeranz debate didn't we? No one knows how he will ultimately turn out but for the time being it still looks like like a decent deal for us. I think a true fan is the one who is really happy sometimes when it looks like they are wrong. It has worked a lot like that for me. I've been just medium warm for Benintendi and Vazquez all year but right now I would not think about letting them go anywhere!

Yup. POM deal looks like gold right now. if he throws up some W's on the way to a parade this year it will go down as a brilliant trade.

In the end, I was dead wrong on Lackey. i hope this ends up the same way.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, I mentioned that the "timing" was off.

 

It was just a "what if?"

 

Since we didn't win a ring with Price last year anyways, this "what if" carries more weight.

 

"What ifs" only have weight in an alternate universe.

 

If you really want to evaluate Price vs. Quintana, of course, there are a pile of "what ifs" yet to unfold.

[Spudboy]

I have had two main concerns about Pom since the Sox traded for him.

 

He throws too many pitches early in the game and can't seem to go more than 6 innings.

 

This is still a concern but he does put the team in the position to win more often than not.

 

He has never started 30 games or thrown 200 innings.

 

Tonight that should change.

 

I was skeptical of him when the trade was made but now I am satisfied that he was a smart get.

 

And with his injury Espinoza is another year away from getting to the bigs ( if ever ).

[mvp 78]

Yes, I mentioned that the "timing" was off.

 

It was just a "what if?"

 

Since we didn't win a ring with Price last year anyways, this "what if" carries more weight.

 

But what if they really did win last year and you're just stuck in a nightmare?

[moonslav59]

"What ifs" only have weight in an alternate universe.

 

If you really want to evaluate Price vs. Quintana, of course, there are a pile of "what ifs" yet to unfold.

 

True. Very true.

 

What I really liked about Q was that he has 3 more years of team control after 2017 (one more than Sale).

 

His luxury tax cost would only have been $4.2M until his 2019 (also pro-rated in 2017) and 2020 option years of $10.5M each.

[moonslav59]

But what if they really did win last year and you're just stuck in a nightmare?

 

Some nightmare!

 

I was actually happy with last year, especially after last places finishes in 3 of 4 years.

[cp176]

Yup. POM deal looks like gold right now. if he throws up some W's on the way to a parade this year it will go down as a brilliant trade.

In the end, I was dead wrong on Lackey. i hope this ends up the same way.

 

I have to be honest here - I still don't get that feeling with Pomeranz that makes me think that we have a real advantage with him on the mound. He is young and I still think that he might have his best years in front of him.

[cp176]

I have had two main concerns about Pom since the Sox traded for him.

 

He throws too many pitches early in the game and can't seem to go more than 6 innings.

 

This is still a concern but he does put the team in the position to win more often than not.

 

He has never started 30 games or thrown 200 innings.

 

Tonight that should change.

 

I was skeptical of him when the trade was made but now I am satisfied that he was a smart get.

 

And with his injury Espinoza is another year away from getting to the bigs ( if ever ).

 

 

I'm with you here. He has given us quite a lot so far but it sure as hell would be nice if he could give us just a little more.

[moonslav59]

I like Pom. I hope he could go deeper in games, but I'm thrilled with what he has given us this year.

 

I was dead against the trade, but not because I thought Pom sucked. I was super high on Espi's massive upside potential.

 

The trade has looked great this year- not so great last year. We still have one more year of Pom.

 

I'm glad we have Pom, but I still think Espi might make us wonder.

[mvp 78]

I like Pom. I hope he could go deeper in games, but I'm thrilled with what he has given us this year.

 

I was dead against the trade, but not because I thought Pom sucked. I was super high on Espi's massive upside potential.

 

The trade has looked great this year- not so great last year. We still have one more year of Pom.

 

I'm glad we have Pom, but I still think Espi might make us wonder.

 

Well, Espinoza may not pitch in another game until 2019. He's far from a sure thing.

[Kimmi]

I think you can make a pretty solid case that Dombrowski had very little choice but to do what he did, or to do something pretty close to what he did, for this team to have any shot in 2016 or 2017. The pitching staff left to him by Ben shaped up as horrendous, and there wasn't a lot of payroll room to work with either. What else can you do but trade for pitching?

 

Dombrowski did try to make use of one of the few 'semi-proven' pitchers left to him by exercising the option on Buchholz, and Buch naturally bombed, necessitating the trade for Pomeranz.

 

I don't disagree that we needed to sign acquire an ace type pitcher in 2016. I just think that Dombrowski went to an extreme, and that he could have built a pretty good staff without giving up as much as he did, in terms of both money and prospects.

[moonslav59]

Well, Espinoza may not pitch in another game until 2019. He's far from a sure thing.

 

Yes, of course, but people said that about every great player in history before they became great.

 

He could be a dud. He could be super great. He might be somewhere in between.

 

We won't know for a long time, but if he does turn out to be good, there will be several years of team control more than Pom.

[oldtimer]

Looking at utility players in the outfield going forward, I would certainly move away from expensive older pros who haven't got the job done this year. We have a prospect in Cole Brannen who is a great young athlete, with speed , a good arm and is defensively rated highly. Another center fielder type. His hitting is okay at this point but he lacks power. Maybe some powe will come as he matures further. He is only 19 years old and it wouldn't be smart to bring him up soon in a utility role, since his PT on the main team would be limited. I would definitely not trade him away as he has years of control and could become one of our better players in the future. Maybe he could be in on the Sept 2018 callup if things continue to go well for him. Meanwhile, I would pick up an older defensive player on a one year basis. We don't need a $6 million dollar man for that.

[moonslav59]

Looking at utility players in the outfield going forward, I would certainly move away from expensive older pros who haven't got the job done this year. We have a prospect in Cole Brannen who is a great young athlete, with speed , a good arm and is defensively rated highly. Another center fielder type. His hitting is okay at this point but he lacks power. Maybe some powe will come as he matures further. He is only 19 years old and it wouldn't be smart to bring him up soon in a utility role, since his PT on the main team would be limited. I would definitely not trade him away as he has years of control and could become one of our better players in the future. Maybe he could be in on the Sept 2018 callup if things continue to go well for him. Meanwhile, I would pick up an older defensive player on a one year basis. We don't need a $6 million dollar man for that.

 

We might just hold onto Holt for one more year so he can be the 4th Of;er.

 

We might give Lin that role.

 

We might sign JD Martinez to be our new clean-up hitter/DH/4th OF'er.

 

We might give Swihart a shot at a utility role that includes LF.

 

We may do two of the above and hope we cover it enough.

 

I agree, we won;t spend much on a 4th OF'er.

[oldtimer]

We might just hold onto Holt for one more year so he can be the 4th Of;er.

 

We might give Lin that role.

 

We might sign JD Martinez to be our new clean-up hitter/DH/4th OF'er.

 

We might give Swihart a shot at a utility role that includes LF.

 

We may do two of the above and hope we cover it enough.

 

I agree, we won;t spend much on a 4th OF'er.

 

What do we do if anything about Hanley? The oft injured, generally only DH that pulls down $22.7 milllion to produce a line in 126 games played to date of .241 avg, .748 OPS with 58 RBI. He is unlikely to wind up with more than 500 AB.s this regular season.

 

He is not pulling his weight and barely hitting it. Do we try to unload him and pay half his salary? Unlikely that anyone would take that deal as pretty good power hitters will be available for similar money. Do we play him next year, expecting his contract for 2018 won't vest? Probably what will happen. So we will be weighed down for year. We can only hope he will come alive in the last 7 games and help us win a couple to capture the pennant and then contribute to the post season.

[Bellhorn04]

What do we do if anything about Hanley? The oft injured, generally only DH that pulls down $22.7 milllion to produce a line in 126 games played to date of .241 avg, .748 OPS with 58 RBI. He is unlikely to wind up with more than 500 AB.s this regular season.

 

He is not pulling his weight and barely hitting it. Do we try to unload him and pay half his salary? Unlikely that anyone would take that deal as pretty good power hitters will be available for similar money. Do we play him next year, expecting his contract for 2018 won't vest? Probably what will happen. So we will be weighed down for year. We can only hope he will come alive in the last 7 games and help us win a couple to capture the pennant and then contribute to the post season.

 

There's not much choice but to keep him and make sure the option doesn't vest.

[oldtimer]

There's not much choice but to keep him and make sure the option doesn't vest.

 

I guess its making the best of a bad acquisition.

[jacksonianmarch]

You cannot come close to the option or the union will take you to arbitration. My guess is that you’ll try to unload him. If you cannot I load him, you platoon him. If you have him as your full time DH and he stays healthy (which you know he’ll play as much as he can to get that option) then you’re paying that option

[OH FOY]

I think Hanley needs 525 AB's each for the next 2 seasons, for his Option to vest.

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s not AB’s, it’s PA’s. He’s already at 529 this year with 9 games to go. He’s probably got another 30PA’s this year. Let’s just say for all intents and purposes that he’s at 550 this year. He’ll only need 500 next year. That’s easily reachable unless the sox bring in a guy like Duda and platoon. A platoon might save the sox a bit of money

[Bellhorn04]

Hanley's OPS+ this year is 94. If he's this bad next year we should be able to do what we want without the union objecting.

[OH FOY]

It’s not AB’s, it’s PA’s. He’s already at 529 this year with 9 games to go. He’s probably got another 30PA’s this year. Let’s just say for all intents and purposes that he’s at 550 this year. He’ll only need 500 next year. That’s easily reachable unless the sox bring in a guy like Duda and platoon. A platoon might save the sox a bit of money

 

Thanks I was confused about this.

[SoxHop]

There's not much choice but to keep him and make sure the option doesn't vest.

 

Unfortunately I think this is where we are at with him. It's too bad, I really liked him on the team in 2016 and his turn around from the previous year where I thought he didn't give a crap. The guy has fire and desire and showed it when healthy at first. I thought he looked like he enjoyed being in the field and being a part of the defense.

[notin]

It’s not AB’s, it’s PA’s. He’s already at 529 this year with 9 games to go. He’s probably got another 30PA’s this year. Let’s just say for all intents and purposes that he’s at 550 this year. He’ll only need 500 next year. That’s easily reachable unless the sox bring in a guy like Duda and platoon. A platoon might save the sox a bit of money

 

Or - radical thought here - it's no so reachable if Hanley gets hurt, which isn't some sort of far-reaching prediction. Heck, he's probably hurt right now...

[jacksonianmarch]

Hanley will play through injury next season, I guarantee it. He’s got $22 mil riding on 500 PA’s. As a matter of fact, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see him more focused next season. Nothing like a big carrot in front of you to motivate

[jacksonianmarch]

Unfortunately I think this is where we are at with him. It's too bad, I really liked him on the team in 2016 and his turn around from the previous year where I thought he didn't give a crap. The guy has fire and desire and showed it when healthy at first. I thought he looked like he enjoyed being in the field and being a part of the defense.

 

And if it looks like you’re keeping his PAs down just to keep the option from kicking in, then the union will have a field day. But if you have him platooning, then he’ll have no say. They can’t have him around the 450-490 range without the union throwing a fit. He needs to be under 400 with good justification to avoid an arbitration motion

[Emp9]

f***. I need a union.

[jacksonianmarch]

f***. I need a union.

 

The MLB union has definitely been a good thing for MLB. Other unions not so much.

[Emp9]

The MLB union has definitely been a good thing for MLB. Other unions not so much.

 

What... You got something against weekends? And child labor laws? and fair pay? and raises?... and safe working conditions? and..

[BstHcpr]

Hanley's OPS+ this year is 94. If he's this bad next year we should be able to do what we want without the union objecting.

 

If Hanley declines even further next year, the players' union won't have a case if they bench him periodically next year.