Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020

[Kimmi]

You and Kimmi go on and on and lament the loss of Sox Prospects Top 20 players.

 

Who on this list would help us NOW? Moncada is blocked by Dustin and Devers. Are any of these guys game changers? They are all fringe players until proven otherwise. Spare me how good they are....They can't break into our lineup. THAT'S A FACT JACK.

 

The point is not who would help us NOW or even whether these guys would be blocked or not. The point is to have a strong farm system to replenish your roster when current players leave, either by having the prospects fill the roles directly or by trading them to fill holes. I don't have any problem with trading guys away to fill needs. I have a problem with taking that philosophy to such an extreme that it hurts the long term outlook of the team.

[Kimmi]

Perhaps there is a school of thought that having a few of these people around would allow completing a trade for a much needed power bat or two going forward The cupboard is kind of bare and our needs will be real. I hope we can sign some of our excellent young players to long term contracts to cover three years out, but we will still need others.

 

Not only this, but having young guys to replace some of the players as they leave helps with payroll. If you don't have the cost controlled guys on your roster, it makes it that much harder to sign free agents if you need them.

[Kimmi]

Farm system exists only to help the parent club. Minor league players can be replacements on major league rosters or they can be traded to acquire major league talent.

 

C-set for 3 more years

1B..

2B-set for 4 more years

SS-set for 2 more years

3B-set for 6 more years

LF-set for 5 more years

CF-set for 3 more years

RF-set for 3 more years

DH-set for at least one more year

 

Immediate need is a 1B, then a ss, two positions easily filled.

 

Not sure why we're panicking;

 

FTR, I don't panic. I'm like the antithesis of panic. They don't call me 'Cool as a cucumber Kimmi' for nothing.

[a700hitter]

FTR, I don't panic. I'm like the antithesis of panic. They don't call me 'Cool as a cucumber Kimmi' for nothing.

You can't even take the pressure of Fantasy Baseball.

[Kimmi]

I don't want to move Devers either, but I'd rather have Moustakas or Machado than Hosmer or Duda.

 

I do think Devers would be a better defensive 1Bman than 3Bman over a short time, but I have not given up him as a 3Bman.

 

That being said, he has not looked very good at 3B so far, but his range sure beats the heck out of Pablo & Co.

 

I don't think anyone would give up on Devers after basically two months in the majors. However, the team has to consider all of the possible scenarios and consider what the best alignment for the team would be. I would not move Devers off of 3rd unless we are talking about a pretty significant upgrade like Machado (not that I'd want him on our team), but moving Devers certainly has to be a consideration.

[moonslav59]

I have no problem with having 2 or more aces. Like you, I'm thrilled that we have Sale. Again for me, it's not the Sale trade, per se, but the overall magnitude of what was traded away.

 

I'm totally with you here.

 

I get how it's hard to think of winning this year without Kimbrel, Pom or Sale. We can't go back in hindsight and say, the one trade we shouldn't have made was the Thornburg trade. That was actually one I liked anyways. I can see the argument how taking away just one of the Kimbrel, Pom or Sale trades would be an even worse strategy, because we'd still have traded away enough of the future to really hurt, but not enough to give a very strong chance to win now. In a sense we'd have been playing it halfway which would likely lead to no rings in "the window" and no wins beyond either. I totally get that argument. I don't even necessarily disagree with that philosophy or plan either. I like winning now. I'm okay with winning every few years, if it takes losing in between some, too. Ideally, I'd love to win every year or be highly competitive every year, at least, but that is probably unrealistic. We wouldn't have been highly competitive now if we took away 2 of those three trades...maybe not with just 1 of the 3 taken back.

 

I'm okay with the cliff, as long as it doesn't last too long. I don't think it will or can as long as we are continuous big spenders. To me, trying to pretend what we did is not going to affect our future in a very significant way baffles my mind. I realize there's a chance we could rebuild while winning, but the odds are very much against us. It is what it is.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, there have been arbitration hearings between the MLBPA and MLB, and the players have won. The most recent example was the Mets granting an extra day of service time to a player years ago who the Mets called up one day after he would have qualified for a years service time.

[S5Dewey]

I'm totally with you here.

 

I get how it's hard to think of winning this year without Kimbrel, Pom or Sale. We can't go back in hindsight and say, the one trade we shouldn't have made was the Thornburg trade. That was actually one I liked anyways. I can see the argument how taking away just one of the Kimbrel, Pom or Sale trades would be an even worse strategy, because we'd still have traded away enough of the future to really hurt, but not enough to give a very strong chance to win now. In a sense we'd have been playing it halfway which would likely lead to no rings in "the window" and no wins beyond either. I totally get that argument. I don't even necessarily disagree with that philosophy or plan either. I like winning now. I'm okay with winning every few years, if it takes losing in between some, too. Ideally, I'd love to win every year or be highly competitive every year, at least, but that is probably unrealistic. We wouldn't have been highly competitive now if we took away 2 of those three trades...maybe not with just 1 of the 3 taken back.

 

I'm okay with the cliff, as long as it doesn't last too long. I don't think it will or can as long as we are continuous big spenders. To me, trying to pretend what we did is not going to affect our future in a very significant way baffles my mind. I realize there's a chance we could rebuild while winning, but the odds are very much against us. It is what it is.

It seems like those two paragraphs are somewhat in conflict with each other. I've been of the opinion for some time that while we may have traded away too much at one time, at the same time those trades have gotten us to where we are. IMO without any one of Kimbrel, Pom, or Sale we'd be looking UP at the Yankees and struggling for a playoff berth. Yes, the farm system would be stronger, but they don't give out awards for having the best farm system.

Would we have been better off if the Sox hadn't traded some of those prospects and not gotten Kimbrel, Pom, or Sale and instead held onto the prospects so we could trade them away next year?? With no guarantee of what will happen then? I like where we are now and I'm willing to worry about 2021 in 2021.

[moonslav59]

It seems like those two paragraphs are somewhat in conflict with each other. I've been of the opinion for some time that while we may have traded away too much at one time, at the same time those trades have gotten us to where we are. IMO without any one of Kimbrel, Pom, or Sale we'd be looking UP at the Yankees and struggling for a playoff berth. Yes, the farm system would be stronger, but they don't give out awards for having the best farm system.

Would we have been better off if the Sox hadn't traded some of those prospects and not gotten Kimbrel, Pom, or Sale and instead held onto the prospects so we could trade them away next year?? With no guarantee of what will happen then? I like where we are now and I'm willing to worry about 2021 in 2021.

 

Personally, I would not have done the Kimbrel and Pom trades. I would have tried to offer some/most those players for Quintana. Had we done that,w e wouldn't have had tos pen on Price. That would have made our long term financial outlook much brighter.

 

It may seem contradictory, but my views on those trades have been clear.

 

Once the trades were made, I realized we were looking at a 3 years window. The Sale trade only reinforced the improved window and the lower after window odds. I thought we might have been able to find a way to win now while still keepinga couple more big pieces to the extended future. Maybe I'm wrong. I've never pretended to be smarter than Theo, Ben or DD.

 

I've never been down on Kimbrel, and I had nothing against Pom. Both trades have greatly improved our 2017 odds--no doubt. I'm enjoying the ride, despite thinking Id' have tried to do things differently. I'm just not going to go into denial about what these moves is highly likely to end up doing to our longer term future.

 

I'd rather not have traded that much of out future, but if it helps us win a ring or two, it will be worth it. I think we have a decent shot this year, and if wec an get a clean-up hitter next year, and we stay healthy, we should have better odds.

 

I'm okay with going all out to improve odds then taking a "cliff" break or trying to stay pretty competitive all the time, but not like the pre-2004 Sox take-you-to-the-doorstep for decades and decades teams. Either way, I try to recognize it for what it is and not try to sugar coat reality.

 

BTW, I'd make 3 Sale trades in a row. You don't pass on chances like that.

[S5Dewey]

Sale's becoming available was probably the best thing that could have happened to the Sox. I still have trouble believing it even happened.

 

I still don't know how a team justifies trading away a Chris Sale.

[moonslav59]

Sale's becoming available was probably the best thing that could have happened to the Sox. I still have trouble believing it even happened.

 

I still don't know how a team justifies trading away a Chris Sale.

 

I had been talking Sale (and Quintana) for years. I don't know how many times I was told the CWS would never trade him with so many cheap years still on the books.

 

I'll admit, I was surprised, too. Then, we see Quintana and Gray traded for what I thought were underpays. I know I'm probably over-valuing our prospects compared to what those other trades gave up, but the "what if" nature of my obsession with the Sox can't help but wonder what our future would look like with one of those two, instead of Price.

 

[S5Dewey]

I had been talking Sale (and Quintana) for years. I don't know how many times I was told the CWS would never trade him with so many cheap years still on the books.

 

I'll admit, I was surprised, too. Then, we see Quintana and Gray traded for what I thought were underpays. I know I'm probably over-valuing our prospects compared to what those other trades gave up, but the "what if" nature of my obsession with the Sox can't help but wonder what our future would look like with one of those two, instead of Price.

 

 

It's pretty hard not to agree with that, especially given where Price is now, but the timing was the important thing there. The Sox picked up Price at a time when they were desperate for a #1 and Price had them over a barrel. I'm fairly confident that had DD known Sale was going to be available he'd have done things differently.

 

I'd still rather have Sale than Quintana or Gray. I'd take Quintana AND Gray over Sale but when we picked up Sale we had no idea those two would be available.

[moonslav59]

It's pretty hard not to agree with that, especially given where Price is now, but the timing was the important thing there. The Sox picked up Price at a time when they were desperate for a #1 and Price had them over a barrel. I'm fairly confident that had DD known Sale was going to be available he'd have done things differently.

 

I'd still rather have Sale than Quintana or Gray. I'd take Quintana AND Gray over Sale but when we picked up Sale we had no idea those two would be available.

 

The second Sale was traded, Quintana was on the market.

 

The timing was the issue though. I doubt we could have traded for Sale back when we signed Price.

 

Imagine though, having Sale and Quintana for low costs, not having Price, and being able to spend Price's money elsewhere. (It's not a realistic dream without Dd being clairvoyant, but what a "what if"!

[Nick]

I'm glad we signed Price so we can win the Division in 2016 after miserable 2015 season when the team basically was unwatchable.

[Bellhorn04]

Imagine though, having Sale and Quintana for low costs, not having Price, and being able to spend Price's money elsewhere. (It's not a realistic dream without Dd being clairvoyant, but what a "what if"!

 

Quintana wasn't traded until 1.6 seasons after we acquired Price.

[cp176]

Quintana wasn't traded until 1.6 seasons after we acquired Price.

 

and there you have it

[Bellhorn04]

I think you can make a pretty solid case that Dombrowski had very little choice but to do what he did, or to do something pretty close to what he did, for this team to have any shot in 2016 or 2017. The pitching staff left to him by Ben shaped up as horrendous, and there wasn't a lot of payroll room to work with either. What else can you do but trade for pitching?

 

Dombrowski did try to make use of one of the few 'semi-proven' pitchers left to him by exercising the option on Buchholz, and Buch naturally bombed, necessitating the trade for Pomeranz.

[Slasher9]

I'm glad we signed Price so we can win the Division in 2016 after miserable 2015 season when the team basically was unwatchable.

 

i hope this gives you comfort for the next 5 years at $31MM per year.

btw - price was a 3.1 WAR player last year. we won the division by 4 games. we could have replaced the $217MM man with FILLINTHEBLANK pitcher and still won the division.

[Slasher9]

I think you can make a pretty solid case that Dombrowski had very little choice but to do what he did, or to do something pretty close to what he did, for this team to have any shot in 2016 or 2017. The pitching staff left to him by Ben shaped up as horrendous, and there wasn't a lot of payroll room to work with either. What else can you do but trade for pitching?

 

Dombrowski did try to make use of one of the few 'semi-proven' pitchers left to him by exercising the option on Buchholz, and Buch naturally bombed, necessitating the trade for Pomeranz.

 

he could have saved $60MM and signed Cueto like i was begging him to. we would be WAY better off.

[S5Dewey]

he could have saved $60MM and signed Cueto like i was begging him to. we would be WAY better off.

 

I think I agree, but that's just water over the bridge or under the dam or wherever all that water goes. I still feel the same way about what the team would look like today had we kept both Iggy & Bogaerts and spent what we spent on Sandoval on pitching instead, But at this point.... WTF.

[Nick]

i hope this gives you comfort for the next 5 years at $31MM per year.

btw - price was a 3.1 WAR player last year. we won the division by 4 games. we could have replaced the $217MM man with FILLINTHEBLANK pitcher and still won the division.

 

Amazing how one can look back and come up with right answers. You're baseball savant!

 

Tell me again what we should do next 3 off seasons?

Edited September 19, 2017 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

he could have saved $60MM and signed Cueto like i was begging him to. we would be WAY better off.

 

Not sure I'd want the 2017 Cueto or what's left of his contract either. He did have a fine season in 2016, no question.

[Slasher9]

Not sure I'd want the 2017 Cueto or what's left of his contract either. He did have a fine season in 2016, no question.

 

would you rather have whats left on Cueto's contract or Prices contract? that's my debate.

no doubt we needed to get a SP that offseason. i dont blame DD for signing one. i just believe that he signed the wrong one. and it's not hindsight. i was posting it at the time.

Edited September 19, 2017 by Slasher9

[Slasher9]

Amazing how one can look back and come up with right answers. You're baseball savant!

 

Tell me again what we should do next 3 off seasons?

 

i've been wrong more than i've been right. i never said i was a savant, i'm a fan posting an opinion. i cant tell you what we should do the next 3 offseasons but you can bet the farm that during this offseason i will post my opinions of what i believe the Red Sox should do.

[BstHcpr]

he could have saved $60MM and signed Cueto like i was begging him to. we would be WAY better off.

 

Cueto sucks

[BstHcpr]

would you rather have whats left on Cueto's contract or Prices contract? that's my debate.

no doubt we needed to get a SP that offseason. i dont blame DD for signing one. i just believe that he signed the wrong one. and it's not hindsight. i was posting it at the time.

 

Price. Cueto has lost a lot of velocity, and has looked like a 5th starter all year. At least, Price actually looks like he could still contribute with #2 starter upside.

[Slasher9]

Cueto sucks

 

same as i posted to Bell:

would you rather have whats left on Cueto's contract or Prices contract? that's my debate.

or are you saying DD shouldnt have signed a "ToR" starter in that offseason?

[Slasher9]

Price. Cueto has lost a lot of velocity, and has looked like a 5th starter all year. At least, Price actually looks like he could still contribute with #2 starter upside.

 

fair answer. we will see how it plays out over the next 5 years.

[moonslav59]

Quintana wasn't traded until 1.6 seasons after we acquired Price.

 

Yes, I mentioned that the "timing" was off.

 

It was just a "what if?"

 

Since we didn't win a ring with Price last year anyways, this "what if" carries more weight.

[cp176]

i've been wrong more than i've been right. i never said i was a savant, i'm a fan posting an opinion. i cant tell you what we should do the next 3 offseasons but you can bet the farm that during this offseason i will post my opinions of what i believe the Red Sox should do.

 

You get some credit points for being able to accept that you can be wrong too sometimes. We had some fun with the Pomeranz debate didn't we? No one knows how he will ultimately turn out but for the time being it still looks like like a decent deal for us. I think a true fan is the one who is really happy sometimes when it looks like they are wrong. It has worked a lot like that for me. I've been just medium warm for Benintendi and Vazquez all year but right now I would not think about letting them go anywhere!