Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020

[moonslav59]

If Devers moves to 1b, then your ability to get a bopper shrinks considerably. There are a multitude of 1b's every year who are basically DH's with a glove who you could add to your lineup and improve. But if Devers moves over, you'll need to go after Moustakas, who I'm not all that convinced is a middle of the order bat over the next 6 years or so. I think the sox go after JD Martinez. He'd be perfect in your lineup and I think the plan would be to convert him to 1b

 

There really aren't many big bopper 1Bman FAs this year. Moustakas is probably a better bet (for power) than Hosmer, Duda, Morrison, Alonso or any other FA 1Bman. Machado is available next winter.

 

Normally, you are right, good 1Bmen are a dime a dozen, but we need more than just "good", and I don't see any, unless we make a trade.

 

I also don't think signing an OF'er (JD Martinez) to be a DH is better than finding a 3Bman or 1Bman. It would force HRam to play 1B FT... Yuck!

[moonslav59]

I think it has become obvious they need to keep Hanley's option from vesting, even if it means just flat out releasing him like Pablo. You can't be on the hook for another year paying $22 million to a DH with a sub-.750 OPS and a negative WAR.

 

If we release him, I'm not sure if that frees us from the vesting option, if he goes elsewhere and gets enough PAs.

[jacksonianmarch]

they're not gonna release him. That being said, if they play him close to the vesting option, the players union would take the sox to court. They've either got to platoon him or eat the possibility that his option vests

[Bellhorn04]

they're not gonna release him. That being said, if they play him close to the vesting option, the players union would take the sox to court. They've either got to platoon him or eat the possibility that his option vests

 

Well, it's a $22 million assignment for DD and JF to figure this one out.

[mvp 78]

There really aren't many big bopper 1Bman FAs this year. Moustakas is probably a better bet (for power) than Hosmer, Duda, Morrison, Alonso or any other FA 1Bman. Machado is available next winter.

 

Normally, you are right, good 1Bmen are a dime a dozen, but we need more than just "good", and I don't see any, unless we make a trade.

 

I also don't think signing an OF'er (JD Martinez) to be a DH is better than finding a 3Bman or 1Bman. It would force HRam to play 1B FT... Yuck!

 

Except that JD Martinez is a terrible OFer. He should be put at 1B.

[moonslav59]

Except that JD Martinez is a terrible OFer. He should be put at 1B.

 

What makes you think he's a good defensive 1Bman?

 

I'm open to the idea though. I think he has the best chance at being a great clean-up hitter next year, and he won't cost us any prospects or draft picks by signing him.

[moonslav59]

they're not gonna release him. That being said, if they play him close to the vesting option, the players union would take the sox to court. They've either got to platoon him or eat the possibility that his option vests

 

He also needs to pass a physical to get the option, and if his shoulder is the mess it seems to be, maybe that will save the day.

 

We'll have to be careful not to flunk him on the physical for bogus reasons, but the chance is there.

[mvp 78]

What makes you think he's a good defensive 1Bman?

 

I'm open to the idea though. I think he has the best chance at being a great clean-up hitter next year, and he won't cost us any prospects or draft picks by signing him.

 

I don't know if he'll be good. But I think you sign him to play 1B and then push him to DH if it doesn't work out. His bat is worth the money.

[a700hitter]

I don't know if he'll be good. But I think you sign him to play 1B and then push him to DH if it doesn't work out. His bat is worth the money.

He would be a beast at DH. He wouldn't need to play the field.

[mvp 78]

He would be a beast at DH. He wouldn't need to play the field.

 

He wouldn't need to, but if he could it would be gravy,.

[jacksonianmarch]

Except that JD Martinez is a terrible OFer. He should be put at 1B.

 

Exactly. A good OFer now is compared to his peers. Martinez is an OFer from yesteryear. Plodding, powerful guy who makes the plays within his range. Now he is being compared to the gazelles out there playing COF, which will in turn make JD's OF capability look worse and worse. It is far easier to teach 1b to an OFer than the reverse.

[moonslav59]

I don't know if he'll be good. But I think you sign him to play 1B and then push him to DH if it doesn't work out. His bat is worth the money.

 

I just don't want to push HRam to 1B- that's my main concern on signing JD.

[a700hitter]

I just don't want to push HRam to 1B- that's my main concern on signing JD.

He wasn't terrible at 1B.

[mvp 78]

I just don't want to push HRam to 1B- that's my main concern on signing JD.

 

What sounds better to you:

 

HanRam 1b/JD DH

Moreland 1b/HanRam DH

 

They aren't moving Devers off of 3b, so 3b's not a FA option unless you think they are going to sign Moustakas to play 1B.

[moonslav59]

He wasn't terrible at 1B.

 

No, but he gets hurt too much.

 

A secondary concern is when we play in an NL park. To play JD, and OF'er needs to sit, unless he can play 1B and HRam sits.

 

I'm fine with signing JD. I'd rather have a 1Bman, but I don't like the 1B FA choices that much.

[moonslav59]

What sounds better to you:

 

HanRam 1b/JD DH

Moreland 1b/HanRam DH

 

They aren't moving Devers off of 3b, so 3b's not a FA option unless you think they are going to sign Moustakas to play 1B.

 

I know they don't want to move Devers to 1B, but his defense was why they kept him in the minors for so long, and if a better clean-up hitter can be acquired by signing a 3Bman over a 1Bman, I'd consider the move and think the Sox might CONSIDER it as well.

[notin]

What sounds better to you:

 

HanRam 1b/JD DH

Moreland 1b/HanRam DH

 

They aren't moving Devers off of 3b, so 3b's not a FA option unless you think they are going to sign Moustakas to play 1B.

 

I don't think it's etched in stone that Devers isn't moving. In fact, they'd be foolish not to consider the option...

[mvp 78]

I don't think it's etched in stone that Devers isn't moving. In fact, they'd be foolish not to consider the option...

 

They'd be foolish to move Devers off of 3B at 20 years old to sign a highpriced FA.

[moonslav59]

They'd be foolish to move Devers off of 3B at 20 years old to sign a highpriced FA.

 

I don't want to move Devers either, but I'd rather have Moustakas or Machado than Hosmer or Duda.

 

I do think Devers would be a better defensive 1Bman than 3Bman over a short time, but I have not given up him as a 3Bman.

 

That being said, he has not looked very good at 3B so far, but his range sure beats the heck out of Pablo & Co.

[oldtimer]

Except that JD Martinez is a terrible OFer. He should be put at 1B.

 

I wouldn't sign another guy just to be a DH. Whoever we get with a big bat also needs to be a regular field player. Hanley will still be around to mainly DH when he is playing.

[oldtimer]

He also needs to pass a physical to get the option, and if his shoulder is the mess it seems to be, maybe that will save the day.

 

We'll have to be careful not to flunk him on the physical for bogus reasons, but the chance is there.

 

They weren't saying his shoulder was the problem, it was the left bicep although nothing showed up in the MRI. Maybe they should do an EEG.

[a700hitter]

I wouldn't sign another guy just to be a DH. Whoever we get with a big bat also needs to be a regular field player. Hanley will still be around to mainly DH when he is playing.

I would get a dedicated DH if he has a wrecking ball attached to his bat like J.D. does.

[oldtimer]

I would get a dedicated DH if he has a wrecking ball attached to his bat like J.D. does.

 

Well, the field players we could lose through Free Agency are Young, Davis, Moreland and Nunez. i think Young and Davis are gone. Moreland is a decent player both in the field and with the bat, but we are looking for an impact player at that position, so he is probably not coming back. Word is out that we will probably try to retain Nunez, but we don't have full time position for him to fill so he probably will go where that is possible. Too bad, since Pedey is likely a 90 game a year guy going forward and he could probably get some time at SS and DH, so he would have a lot of opportunity and he is getting older so might be best when used with some down time available.

 

So it does look like we will go in the 1st base direction. How we accomplish that remains to be seen. I don't see anyone waiting in the wings in the minors who is ready to provide what we need so it is a FA, a move of a player and a trade or FA to fill whatever position becomes open or we try to work a trade, but what we have to offer other than one of our young regular players would probably not interest a club. Moon hasn't identified any first base prospects that stand out. I don't think bringing in just a DH for next year makes sense based on Hanley's contract and limitations and a switch to going after a 3rd baseman probably should await the battle for Machado.

 

The other aspect of this is whether we can get some of our young players we want long term to agree to extension contracts. Clearly Betts is one of those. Possibly JBJ and/or Bogaerts also fit that. The others are so young that no action at this point is realistic or required. Depending on how much money we want to commit in that direction and to enhance the pitching staff, there will be some outside number we will want to pay for a big bat.

 

Otherwise, this whole situation is complicated and it is in DD's lap to come up with some sort of compromise solution.

[Slasher9]

they're not gonna release him. That being said, if they play him close to the vesting option, the players union would take the sox to court. They've either got to platoon him or eat the possibility that his option vests

 

any similar lawsuits with owners losing? the union could take that to court everyday and would never win that. i dont care if he's platooning or what. no chance hanley gets the necessary AB's next season. and no chance the players union would win a lawsuit against the Sox FO.

[moonslav59]

Well, the field players we could lose through Free Agency are Young, Davis, Moreland and Nunez. i think Young and Davis are gone. Moreland is a decent player both in the field and with the bat, but we are looking for an impact player at that position, so he is probably not coming back. Word is out that we will probably try to retain Nunez, but we don't have full time position for him to fill so he probably will go where that is possible. Too bad, since Pedey is likely a 90 game a year guy going forward and he could probably get some time at SS and DH, so he would have a lot of opportunity and he is getting older so might be best when used with some down time available.

 

So it does look like we will go in the 1st base direction. How we accomplish that remains to be seen. I don't see anyone waiting in the wings in the minors who is ready to provide what we need so it is a FA, a move of a player and a trade or FA to fill whatever position becomes open or we try to work a trade, but what we have to offer other than one of our young regular players would probably not interest a club. Moon hasn't identified any first base prospects that stand out. I don't think bringing in just a DH for next year makes sense based on Hanley's contract and limitations and a switch to going after a 3rd baseman probably should await the battle for Machado.

 

The other aspect of this is whether we can get some of our young players we want long term to agree to extension contracts. Clearly Betts is one of those. Possibly JBJ and/or Bogaerts also fit that. The others are so young that no action at this point is realistic or required. Depending on how much money we want to commit in that direction and to enhance the pitching staff, there will be some outside number we will want to pay for a big bat.

 

Otherwise, this whole situation is complicated and it is in DD's lap to come up with some sort of compromise solution.

 

We could tempt Nunez with the FT 2B position and let Pedey DH and HRam play 1B FT. Nunez could float to other positions and allow Pedey to play 2B whenever he can.

 

This does nothing to solve the clean-up hole.

[moonslav59]

any similar lawsuits with owners losing? the union could take that to court everyday and would never win that. i dont care if he's platooning or what. no chance hanley gets the necessary AB's next season. and no chance the players union would win a lawsuit against the Sox FO.

 

Maybe, if he was hitting real well, and they benched him at the end of the year just a few ABs away, he might have a case, but I think we could do it without raising red flags.

 

The issue would be how it might affect future signings, especially ones with vesting clauses or injury clauses.

[oldtimer]

We could tempt Nunez with the FT 2B position and let Pedey DH and HRam play 1B FT. Nunez could float to other positions and allow Pedey to play 2B whenever he can.

 

This does nothing to solve the clean-up hole.

 

I agree, the problem is finding a FA that would fit the needs of the team and still have a contract requirement we could swallow.

[moonslav59]

I agree, the problem is finding a FA that would fit the needs of the team and still have a contract requirement we could swallow.

 

So, if you only look at who are the best clean-up hitters on the market, regardless of position, I'd rank them this way:

 

1) JD Martinez (despite injury concerns)

2) Mike Moustakas( despite playing a position we have a 20 year playing right now)

 

Distant tie for third:

 

Upton, Duda, Santana, Hosmer, Morrison, maybe one or two more I forgot

[Kimmi]

Well, if Price had a season close to what Sale is having, we would have still been a strong competitor.

 

Nothing wrong with having 2 or more aces has always been my mantra.

 

Pedro/Schilling

 

Beckett/Shilling

 

Lester/Lackey

 

I have no problem with having 2 or more aces. Like you, I'm thrilled that we have Sale. Again for me, it's not the Sale trade, per se, but the overall magnitude of what was traded away.

[Kimmi]

Some of the names on the list are not big names, some were better prospects when we traded them, some were better long before we traded them.

 

What's astounding to me is what a tight time frame all these guys got dealt in, and how some seem to feel trading all these guys will barely affect our long term outlook.

 

 

I completely agree.