Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020

[moonslav59]

Just my opinion. I am not buying the Yankee future hype at all.

 

I'm not either for the "long term", but they did make some moves to strengthen their extended future while we made some that were geared towards just the next 2-3 years.

[notin]

I hate the Yankees, and as much as it pains me to say it, I would rather be in the Yankees situation moving forward to the longer term than in ours.

 

Eh. We were in their position last year....

[a700hitter]

I'm not either for the "long term", but they did make some moves to strengthen their extended future while we made some that were geared towards just the next 2-3 years.

They will need to make some big acquisitions including for starting pitching for me to envy them even in the "long term." But that remains to be seen.

[Nick]

we have Beni for 5 years and Devers for 6 years. Nothing to snooze at from my perspective.

[moonslav59]

They will need to make some big acquisitions including for starting pitching for me to envy them even in the "long term." But that remains to be seen.

 

And we don't?

 

We got Price to '22.

Erod to '21.

Wright to .20

Sale to '19

Porcello to '19

Pom to '18.

Groome to whenever.

 

NYY

Tanaka maybe to '20 (rather have him than Price.)

Severino, Green and Montgomery and others haven't even reached arb years yet.

Sonny Gray to '19

Sabathia, Pineda, Garcia -last year

We got Groome; they got Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield and more.

 

I'm not saying you have to love their SP'ing long term than ours, but I'm just having a hard time with calling someone dumb for liking their outlook better.

 

We have Beni and Devers pre- arb.

Betts and JBJ go to 2020 (3 years) not 4+.

 

They have Judge, Sanchez and Frazier pre-arb (plus Torreyes for 4 more years- 3 arb).

 

 

[a700hitter]

And we don't?

 

We got Price to '22.

Erod to '21.

Wright to .20

Sale to '19

Porcello to '19

Pom to '18.

Groome to whenever.

 

NYY

Tanaka maybe to '20 (rather have him than Price.)

Severino, Green and Montgomery and others haven't even reached arb years yet.

Sonny Gray to '19

Sabathia, Pineda, Garcia -last year

We got Groome; they got Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield and more.

 

I'm not saying you have to love their SP'ing long term than ours, but I'm just having a hard time with calling someone dumb for liking their outlook better.

 

We have Beni and Devers pre- arb.

Betts and JBJ go to 2020 (3 years) not 4+.

 

They have Judge, Sanchez and Frazier pre-arb (plus Torreyes for 4 more years- 3 arb).

 

 

That doesn't make me want to be in the position of the Yankees -- long or short term.

[Bellhorn04]

That doesn't make me want to be in the position of the Yankees -- long or short term.

 

That may have something to do with the fact that you loathe them and everything they stand for with every fiber of your being. Proper thing, of course.

[moonslav59]

That doesn't make me want to be in the position of the Yankees -- long or short term.

 

We were only talking long term, and we were only talking either/or- not about both teams have long term issues.

 

I don't feel it's dumb to take either side of the choice, but I do think most experts would say the Yankee long term outlook (3 or 4 years and beyond) is at least slightly better than ours.

 

I also feel our short term outlook (0-3 years) looks better.

[moonslav59]

That may have something to do with the fact that you loathe them and everything they stand for with every fiber of your being. Proper thing, of course.

 

So do I, but that doesn't change reality.

[southpaw777]

They have the $$, they had a solid draft, it would appear, this year. Which says we have some decent scouting. And we have a young nucleus. I dont see any window really. This organization is set up really good IMO. If we need a FA, we can go get one. Need to go ovee the LT for a year or two? No problem...We will know a little more next year about this years draftees, but it looks to be a couple standouts in there with a little development. Also we can make trades. I really kinda laugh with all this window talk. Do you guys think that a multi billion dollar organization doesnt have A more detailed immediate short term plan, and a more generalized longer term plan? How well the immediate plan goes isually determines the longer one to some extent. So far, so good on all fronts from where Im sitting.

[moonslav59]

They have the $$, they had a solid draft, it would appear, this year. Which says we have some decent scouting. And we have a young nucleus. I dont see any window really. This organization is set up really good IMO. If we need a FA, we can go get one. Need to go ovee the LT for a year or two? No problem...We will know a little more next year about this years draftees, but it looks to be a couple standouts in there with a little development. Also we can make trades. I really kinda laugh with all this window talk. Do you guys think that a multi billion dollar organization doesnt have A more detailed immediate short term plan, and a more generalized longer term plan? How well the immediate plan goes isually determines the longer one to some extent. So far, so good on all fronts from where Im sitting.

 

Well said.

 

It's not going to be easy, but then again, it never was.

 

Things have gotten more difficult for big spending teams, but I also think we did very well with international signings this year. I thought that would be one area we'd have trouble with the rule changes. I like the trades we made to boost bonus money. We're off to a better start than I expected last winter. I hope our picks flourish and we can keep this up, because I do not think we can spend large to fill too many needy slots.

[mvp 78]

I think DD gets a bad rap and that he won't let a true cliff happen. He'll sign at least 2 of Betts/JBJ/Xander and will replace the other with in house or cheaper talent. He has a great scouting department that he needs to continue to lean on. If DD can figure out how to develop some SPers, he'll be a legend here.

[Bellhorn04]

So do I, but that doesn't change reality.

 

I was mainly trying to be funny. Reality generally sucks anyway.

[a700hitter]

That may have something to do with the fact that you loathe them and everything they stand for with every fiber of your being. Proper thing, of course.

And that the mere mention of their name causes involuntary physiological responses.

[a700hitter]

So do I, but that doesn't change reality.

As I said, I disagree with those forecasts. I don't think they are so well positioned long term and I would expect some of that long term capital will be exchanged for short term assets anyway. Saying anything positive about the Yankees' future (everyone's future is highly speculative) is just dumb imo. I can acknowledge when they play well and beat us and tip my hat to them (but never call them "My Daddy"), but I would never say that their long term future is brighter than ours, unless we rehire Ben Cherington.

[moonslav59]

I was mainly trying to be funny. Reality generally sucks anyway.

 

Very true, these days.

[Kimmi]

Eh. We were in their position last year....

 

Yes, we were. But now we have a cliff.

[Bellhorn04]

You never know what's going to happen. Maybe this team turns out to be a big disappointment, and at next year's deadline we trade Sale, Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley for a huge stack of prospects.

[notin]

Yes, we were. But now we have a cliff.

 

And they will have one next year or the year after. Cliffs come and go.

 

Before 2004, the following Sox players were due for free agency: Pedro, Lowe, Varitek, Nixon, and Nomar (who was dealt, but his replacement, Orlando Cabrera, was also a pending free agent). That's 3 key starters and two of their top starting pitchers. and I think there were some other names that elude me right now. (And Tim Wakefield, who was on that annual auto-renewal plan.)

 

The farm system was pretty bland, as we had not replenished it with the awesome 2005 draft yet. (We did have Pedroia and Lester, both in A ball, as well as a few other less notable future major leaguers.)

 

Yet by 2007, three years later, there they were. Back on top.

 

A lot can happen in 3 years,,,

[notin]

Yes, we were. But now we have a cliff.

 

In fact, addressing the cliffs seems to have been an issue with Sox fans. Back in 2009, Epstein talked about the farm system having a "bridge year". And many fans decided foolishly he was talking about the MLB team and how he wasn't going to try and spend heavily on a premium product. This despite making John Lackey the then-highest paid pitcher in team history. But a lot of people, most of whom seemed to post on BDC, thought he was throwing away the season when he was addressing a minor league cliff....

[moonslav59]

And they will have one next year or the year after. Cliffs come and go.

 

Before 2004, the following Sox players were due for free agency: Pedro, Lowe, Varitek, Nixon, and Nomar (who was dealt, but his replacement, Orlando Cabrera, was also a pending free agent). That's 3 key starters and two of their top starting pitchers. and I think there were some other names that elude me right now. (And Tim Wakefield, who was on that annual auto-renewal plan.)

 

The farm system was pretty bland, as we had not replenished it with the awesome 2005 draft yet. (We did have Pedroia and Lester, both in A ball, as well as a few other less notable future major leaguers.)

 

Yet by 2007, three years later, there they were. Back on top.

 

A lot can happen in 3 years,,,

 

1) Nobody is claiming "the cliff" is going to be 3 or more years long.

2) We finished in 3rd place in 2006. Cliff? Probably not, but I don't recall any Sox fans expecting one. Henry was spending like a maniac, and not every player was coming up for free agency at once.

3) We saw our payroll go from $120M in 2006 to $143M in 2007. We signed Lugo and Okajima. We had signed Dice-K and others and traded top prospects for Beckett & Lowell a year before and created a kind of "window" from 2005-2007. We never hit a "cliff" until maybe the Valantine year, but we also did not win a WS between 2007 and 2013. certainly, we were more competitive than 2012, 2014 and 2015, which could have been called a cliff were it not for 2013.

 

[Spudboy]

How many draft picks will the Sox make from 2017 through 2020?

[notin]

1) Nobody is claiming "the cliff" is going to be 3 or more years long.

2) We finished in 3rd place in 2006. Cliff? Probably not, but I don't recall any Sox fans expecting one. Henry was spending like a maniac, and not every player was coming up for free agency at once.

3) We saw our payroll go from $120M in 2006 to $143M in 2007. We signed Lugo and Okajima. We had signed Dice-K and others and traded top prospects for Beckett & Lowell a year before and created a kind of "window" from 2005-2007. We never hit a "cliff" until maybe the Valantine year, but we also did not win a WS between 2007 and 2013. certainly, we were more competitive than 2012, 2014 and 2015, which could have been called a cliff were it not for 2013.

 

 

But look at what might have been if we didn't win in 2004.

 

No more Pedro. No more Nomar. No more Varitek. All were possible.

 

The farm had some talent, but not much above A-ball except maybe Hanley and Brandon Moss.

 

The 86 year draught looked more prime to continue than end. And continue for a while.

 

 

But as I said, a lot can happen...

[moonslav59]

But look at what might have been if we didn't win in 2004.

 

No more Pedro. No more Nomar. No more Varitek. All were possible.

 

The farm had some talent, but not much above A-ball except maybe Hanley and Brandon Moss.

 

The 86 year draught looked more prime to continue than end. And continue for a while.

 

 

But as I said, a lot can happen...

 

Nobody would project a cliff as long as Manny was under team control for much while longer, and there was no reason to believe we could not keep Papi indefinitely. There was no luxury tax and the draft, Int'l FA system and FA comp pick system actually helped us not hurt us.

Edited September 16, 2017 by moonslav59

[cp176]

It kind of looks to me as though the cliff exists for those who really don't like Dombrowski's philosophy (whatever they think it is) or seriously questioned every move that he made at the time they were made. If you really liked the way Ben Cherington did business and the way he ran a program, the cliff probably exists. It's obvious that I like DD and for the most part have not questioned seriously any of the moves he has made - for the good or the bad. As it always has, every year presents a fresh set of challenges. This cliff concept doesn't exist for me.

[moonslav59]

It kind of looks to me as though the cliff exists for those who really don't like Dombrowski's philosophy (whatever they think it is) or seriously questioned every move that he made at the time they were made. If you really liked the way Ben Cherington did business and the way he ran a program, the cliff probably exists. It's obvious that I like DD and for the most part have not questioned seriously any of the moves he has made - for the good or the bad. As it always has, every year presents a fresh set of challenges. This cliff concept doesn't exist for me.

 

I'm a believer in some sort of cliff existing. Unlike Kimmi, I think it might be 4 years away-not 3.

 

I have not been against "every" DD move, and I don't know anyone who has been.

 

I hated the Kimbrel & Pom trades but loved the Sale trade. I liked the Thornburg and Nunez deals and was okay with the Price signing.

 

I don't mean to speak for Kimmi, she does fine on her own, but her main criticism has been the vast totality of DD's deals and not all of them.

 

The Kimbrel and Pom deals have worked out well this year. Last year some were wondering. Nobody doubted those deals weren't going to help us for 3 years or so.

 

Even if we don't hit a cliff, a term that is probably more subjective than the term "mental blunder", not having all those prospects will surely affect how good we will be, unless every one flops.

[Spudboy]

Of course no one has answered my question regarding how many draft picks the Sox have over the next 3-4 seasons.

 

How is it that those picks added to the current remains of our farm system can't possibly produce any MLB players or trade chips?

 

Pretty f***ing stupid to assume they will all be total schlock especially if you have cried about losing so many farm pieces under Dombrowski.

 

Somehow the math of the hand wringers does not add up.

 

And really, worst case Ontario is the Sox become a door mat for a couple of years. I can live with a Sox team that looks like the A's for a while.

 

That is because I love watching Sox baseball, even when the team sucks ass.

 

I don't rely on WAR, UZR, or any other metric for enjoyment.

[Kimmi]

And they will have one next year or the year after. Cliffs come and go.

 

Before 2004, the following Sox players were due for free agency: Pedro, Lowe, Varitek, Nixon, and Nomar (who was dealt, but his replacement, Orlando Cabrera, was also a pending free agent). That's 3 key starters and two of their top starting pitchers. and I think there were some other names that elude me right now. (And Tim Wakefield, who was on that annual auto-renewal plan.)

 

The farm system was pretty bland, as we had not replenished it with the awesome 2005 draft yet. (We did have Pedroia and Lester, both in A ball, as well as a few other less notable future major leaguers.)

 

Yet by 2007, three years later, there they were. Back on top.

 

A lot can happen in 3 years,,,

 

Theo's philosophy has always been to make the farm system a priority. IMO, if you're focusing on that and you have a strong farm, there is no cliff.

 

To date, I have not seen building the farm system as a top priority for Dombrowski, which is why I see an impending cliff. I have acknowledged that a lot can happen in the next 3 years. Also, Henry seems to be reeling Dombrowski in a bit in terms of depleting the farm any further. By the time 2020 arrives, the cliff may very well not be there.

[Kimmi]

I'm a believer in some sort of cliff existing. Unlike Kimmi, I think it might be 4 years away-not 3.

 

I have not been against "every" DD move, and I don't know anyone who has been.

 

I hated the Kimbrel & Pom trades but loved the Sale trade. I liked the Thornburg and Nunez deals and was okay with the Price signing.

 

I don't mean to speak for Kimmi, she does fine on her own, but her main criticism has been the vast totality of DD's deals and not all of them.

 

The Kimbrel and Pom deals have worked out well this year. Last year some were wondering. Nobody doubted those deals weren't going to help us for 3 years or so.

 

Even if we don't hit a cliff, a term that is probably more subjective than the term "mental blunder", not having all those prospects will surely affect how good we will be, unless every one flops.

 

I think I could be 'okay' with any of Dombrowski's deal taken in a vacuum. That's not to say that I agree with all of them, like the trade for Kimbrel, but I could be okay with that deal in and of itself. As you said, it's the magnitude of the prospects traded away, thereby greatly depleting our farm system.

 

It is a philosophical preference. I'm all about the farm system and building winners now while not sacrificing the long term. Others want to stack the current team regardless of what impact it might have on the future.

[Bellhorn04]

What can't be overlooked is that while Ben left the team in great shape with position players, he left it in absolutely terrible shape with pitching. The total dearth of pitching is what prompted all of DD's major trades. Where else were we going to get pitching is the question.