Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020

[moonslav59]

Does HRam need surgery?

 

If so, maybe he'll come back and have a year like 2016 or even better. He's not too old to have another really big year.

 

One problem is, he could have a great 2018, vest the option and then stink again in 2019.

 

[notin]

And if it looks like you’re keeping his PAs down just to keep the option from kicking in, then the union will have a field day. But if you have him platooning, then he’ll have no say. They can’t have him around the 450-490 range without the union throwing a fit. He needs to be under 400 with good justification to avoid an arbitration motion

 

I really doubt a Lucas Duda platoon will keep the union quiet. And it certainly won't silence Hanley's agent, who probably has already drafted his motion, just in case..

Edited September 23, 2017 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

One problem is, he could have a great 2018, vest the option and then stink again in 2019.

 

Either way, it seems we're going to have to pay him for one year in which he stinks!

[moonslav59]

Either way, it seems we're going to have to pay him for one year in which he stinks!

 

Yes, and to me, the chances of two bad years are higher than two good years.

 

For just this reason, I said before the 2016 season, we should trade HRam after 2016, even if he hits over .900.

 

I changed my mind after he had a good 2016, mostly because Papi retired, but I should haves tuck to my guns.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I think it would have been extremely hard to trade Hanley regardless. An aging DH with erratic numbers and recurring injury issues and that stupid vesting option.

[Kimmi]

Doesn't Hanley have to pass a physical in order for the option to vest? If Hanley is healthy, I think he will be a very good hitter for us, and we'll want him in the line up.

 

If he's not healthy, then I don't think the union has a case as far as Hanley not getting the PAs. Additionally, how would he pass the physical if his shoulders are all messed up?

[moonslav59]

I think it would have been extremely hard to trade Hanley regardless. An aging DH with erratic numbers and recurring injury issues and that stupid vesting option.

 

I didn't expect us to get anything of great value in return. I just wanted to dump salary.

 

I do think some team would have taken HRam off our hands. He looked like a decent 1Bman. Maybe we'd have had to pay $2-5M a year as an offset, but I think we could have traded him.

 

I cans ee why we didn't, and like I said, even I changed my mind and wanted to keep him.

[moonslav59]

Doesn't Hanley have to pass a physical in order for the option to vest? If Hanley is healthy, I think he will be a very good hitter for us, and we'll want him in the line up.

 

If he's not healthy, then I don't think the union has a case as far as Hanley not getting the PAs. Additionally, how would he pass the physical if his shoulders are all messed up?

 

Yes, there is a physical involved in the vesting.

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I think whatever injury issues Hanley has had this year have been the 'nagging' kind. If he had anything serious he wouldn't be playing as much as he has. And he can still pound the ball when he does connect.

 

I actually like Hanley in spite of it all.

[cp176]

Personally I think whatever injury issues Hanley has had this year have been the 'nagging' kind. If he had anything serious he wouldn't be playing as much as he has. And he can still pound the ball when he does connect.

 

I actually like Hanley in spite of it all.

 

I'm somewhat of a Hanley convert myself. I hope that he can come through for us as well as for himself. I saw him in Portland and am pretty sure that we at least sort of know why he was traded in spite of the awesome potential that he had. He has matured. He seems very solid to me. We need the throw back Hanley! Let's go.

[moonslav59]

HRam and Betts are perhaps our best hopes at showing some dominant power in the playoffs.

[oldtimer]

HRam and Betts are perhaps our best hopes at showing some dominant power in the playoffs.

 

I would put Devers in that class and equal to or better to Hanley.

[jacksonianmarch]

Doesn't Hanley have to pass a physical in order for the option to vest? If Hanley is healthy, I think he will be a very good hitter for us, and we'll want him in the line up.

 

If he's not healthy, then I don't think the union has a case as far as Hanley not getting the PAs. Additionally, how would he pass the physical if his shoulders are all messed up?

 

Good luck "failing" his physical and getting it by the union. This is the same deal guys. You cannot intentionally diminish a player's PA's to avoid an option if they are playing well. Hanley isn't playing well this year, but lets say he puts up a .260 25HR season next yr, or he is on pace for it. Do you think the sox can justify having him miss his option by 30 or 40 AB's when there is no better option on the team? I know Hanley hasn't been great vs lefties this year, but his three years prior he is clearly better vs lefties than his splits vs righties. Here is what you do. You sign Duda on a pillow contract and have him be the lefty portion of a platoon with Hanley while also having him play a bit at 1b opening up some PT for Hanley vs righties. It wouldn't be a pure platoon, but it would pull enough AB's from Hanley to allow him to miss his option without making it look like you're sitting Hanley specifically for contract purposes

[moonslav59]

I would put Devers in that class and equal to or better to Hanley.

 

Good point, and he's already showed he is unfazed by high pressure.

 

I still think HRam has a chance to shine.

[moonslav59]

Good luck "failing" his physical and getting it by the union. This is the same deal guys. You cannot intentionally diminish a player's PA's to avoid an option if they are playing well. Hanley isn't playing well this year, but lets say he puts up a .260 25HR season next yr, or he is on pace for it. Do you think the sox can justify having him miss his option by 30 or 40 AB's when there is no better option on the team? I know Hanley hasn't been great vs lefties this year, but his three years prior he is clearly better vs lefties than his splits vs righties. Here is what you do. You sign Duda on a pillow contract and have him be the lefty portion of a platoon with Hanley while also having him play a bit at 1b opening up some PT for Hanley vs righties. It wouldn't be a pure platoon, but it would pull enough AB's from Hanley to allow him to miss his option without making it look like you're sitting Hanley specifically for contract purposes

 

If we have someone equal or better to HRam to play, I doubt a union grievance will carry much weight, despite what pace he's on next year.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Exactly. But right now, you don't. You need to get someone to eat into Hanley's PT

[moonslav59]

Exactly. But right now, you don't. You need to get someone to eat into Hanley's PT

 

If we get a clean-up hitting 1Bman and bring Nunez back, that could be all we need to squeeze out HRam, unless we end up needing Nunez at 2B or elsewhere a lot.

[Kimmi]

Good luck "failing" his physical and getting it by the union. This is the same deal guys. You cannot intentionally diminish a player's PA's to avoid an option if they are playing well. Hanley isn't playing well this year, but lets say he puts up a .260 25HR season next yr, or he is on pace for it. Do you think the sox can justify having him miss his option by 30 or 40 AB's when there is no better option on the team? I know Hanley hasn't been great vs lefties this year, but his three years prior he is clearly better vs lefties than his splits vs righties. Here is what you do. You sign Duda on a pillow contract and have him be the lefty portion of a platoon with Hanley while also having him play a bit at 1b opening up some PT for Hanley vs righties. It wouldn't be a pure platoon, but it would pull enough AB's from Hanley to allow him to miss his option without making it look like you're sitting Hanley specifically for contract purposes

 

I'm not talking about 'failing' his physical if he is indeed healthy. There seems to be something legitimately wrong with his shoulders that may or may not heal over the off season. If that's the case, I don't see how he would pass his physical. I'm a Hanley fan. I have no problem with picking up his option if he's healthy and can hit reasonably well.

[moonslav59]

I'm not talking about 'failing' his physical if he is indeed healthy. There seems to be something legitimately wrong with his shoulders that may or may not heal over the off season. If that's the case, I don't see how he would pass his physical. I'm a Hanley fan. I have no problem with picking up his option if he's healthy and can hit reasonably well.

 

Anybody know if he needs surgery?

 

Maybe he can be "cured" over this winter and have a great season in 2018. You'd think he'd want to do everything possible to make sure he's in top shape at the end of 2018, without risking losing too many PAs in 2018.

[notin]

Good luck "failing" his physical and getting it by the union. This is the same deal guys. You cannot intentionally diminish a player's PA's to avoid an option if they are playing well. Hanley isn't playing well this year, but lets say he puts up a .260 25HR season next yr, or he is on pace for it. Do you think the sox can justify having him miss his option by 30 or 40 AB's when there is no better option on the team? I know Hanley hasn't been great vs lefties this year, but his three years prior he is clearly better vs lefties than his splits vs righties. Here is what you do. You sign Duda on a pillow contract and have him be the lefty portion of a platoon with Hanley while also having him play a bit at 1b opening up some PT for Hanley vs righties. It wouldn't be a pure platoon, but it would pull enough AB's from Hanley to allow him to miss his option without making it look like you're sitting Hanley specifically for contract purposes

 

LOL

 

So the Sox plan to avoid paying Hanley should be to give his money to Duda instead? Given Duda's career, I'd rather just pay Hanley the extra year and quit pretending it meant the end of the franchise...

[moonslav59]

LOL

 

So the Sox plan to avoid paying Hanley should be to give his money to Duda instead? Given Duda's career, I'd rather just pay Hanley the extra year and quit pretending it meant the end of the franchise...

 

Duda has 27+ Hrs in 3 of his last 4 years and the one without, he was hurt.

 

I'd say at age 32, he's a better gamble than HRam, but he's not high on my list of wants. He's a bum vs lefties (.661 career).

[Emp9]

Anybody know if he needs surgery?

 

Maybe he can be "cured" over this winter and have a great season in 2018. You'd think he'd want to do everything possible to make sure he's in top shape at the end of 2018, without risking losing too many PAs in 2018.

 

Surgery? But, but... Our Shoulder strengthening Program should cure him all right.

[Kimmi]

Anybody know if he needs surgery?

 

Maybe he can be "cured" over this winter and have a great season in 2018. You'd think he'd want to do everything possible to make sure he's in top shape at the end of 2018, without risking losing too many PAs in 2018.

 

I have not heard anything about surgery. My guess is that he just needs rest, but I haven't heard one way or another.

[moonslav59]

I have not heard anything about surgery. My guess is that he just needs rest, but I haven't heard one way or another.

 

Is it the same injury from 2015?

 

If so, he didn't get surgery then, so I wonder...

[jacksonianmarch]

LOL

 

So the Sox plan to avoid paying Hanley should be to give his money to Duda instead? Given Duda's career, I'd rather just pay Hanley the extra year and quit pretending it meant the end of the franchise...

 

You can probably get Duda on a 1 yr deal at around $5-$8 mil. That is far better than paying Hanley $22 mil in 2019

[moonslav59]

You can probably get Duda on a 1 yr deal at around $5-$8 mil. That is far better than paying Hanley $22 mil in 2019

 

Duda sucks vs LHPs, so maybe he'd be perfect for the plan to limit HRam's PAs. We could play HRam vs LHPs only.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ding ding ding. You bring in Duda, you add power and a platoon partner. It solves two problems. You cut down on Hanley’s ABs and keep the option from vesting and you add power to the 1b position when you want to use him there

[Spudboy]

Either way, it seems we're going to have to pay him for one year in which he stinks!

 

Nothing new there.

[moonslav59]

Nothing new there.

 

It's new in that usually every year stinks.

[oldtimer]

Yes, we have to get used to the fact that Hanley will remain here next year, despite his less than stellar production. I don't expect another year older Hanley will show any improvement, so whatever plan we have should make 2018 his last with the Sox. I prefer that any player we get in his place will be able to play a position and would not advise taking on any playing who can only be a DH.

 

Going forward for next year and beyond, we need to realize that Pedey is likely to be a 90 games a year guy just due to age and wear and tear. So we need a capable replacement for him for the other 70 games or so a year. Pedey when right can hit and contribute enough to fill in as DH. Not much power but a good way to use him to give him days off in the field.

 

As far as priority players going forward, I think Betts, Beni, Devers and Vaz should be our key signees. If Nunez is healthy, I would love to sign him for 3 years as well. That would solve the expected partial void at 2nd and allow for rest to other infield players, plus, he too could be an effective DH.

 

On a second tier, I am ambivalent on JBJ, Bogey and Leon. All have good points and weaknesses but could be replaced with players of equal capability. If signing money or length of contract gets too high then say goodbye.

 

Our current utility players aren't getting it done enough to hang onto them. Young, Holt and Davis. We should look for younger and adequate utility guys to replace them. Maybe we could find a diamond in the rough or two. Travis certainly has upside.

 

Clearly we need some pop in the lineup and 1st base seems to be the logical place to find it. There are several guys out there better than Moreland. If we have to pay a FA, then we should do it.