Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020

[SoxHop]

How about if they had their 2017 seasons in 2015?

 

Good old hypotheticals.

 

ahahahah.... Lol

[moonslav59]

How about if they had their 2017 seasons in 2015?

 

Good old hypotheticals.

 

MAybe, but we had too many different players to make a good scenario comparison.

[Kimmi]

But even if you thought our rotation without Sale was fine, his acquisition could be considered necessary to offset the loss of Papi. We knew we'd be scoring less runs so we had to give up correspondingly less. Because they didn't have the money under the tax threshold to sign Encarnacion. I don't think Sale was a luxury when you factor all those things in.

 

Well, having scored more than 100 runs better than our closest competitor, I thought our offense would be good enough to still be in the top 3. I also really thought that Price would become the ace that we had hoped for when we signed him.

 

In short, I thought our team was a strong competitor before we traded for Sale.

[Kimmi]

It's shocking to me that some seem to feel trading away all the prospects listed below is not going to have a major impact on our long term outlook. I have no issue with the argument that we might be smart over the next few years, draft better than we have in the past with picks below number 20, sign a few more good international free agents with less money to spend, and do better with our free agent signings than Pablo, HRam and Price. Maybe we can acquire enough good prospects to make another Sale-type trade before 2020 arrives. Sure, any of this is possible, however we may need close to all of this happening to be HIGHLY COMPETITIVE in 2020 or 2021. To me, that is improbable, if not highly improbable.

 

Recently traded prospects listed by highest ranking on soxprospects.com

 

1 Yoan Moncada

3 Anderson Espinoza

3 Manuel Margot

3 Garin Cecchini

5 Michael Kopech

6 Javier Guerra

7 Luis Ax. Basabe

9 Maurice Dubron

12 Travis Shaw (not a prospect when traded)

12 Wendell Rijo

13 Logan Allen

13 Pat Light

18 Luis Aj. Basabe

20 Carlos Asuage

21 Victor Diaz

24 Josh Pennington

30 Aaron Wilkerson

40 Jose Almonte

 

Now, clearly some of these guys have fallen off since the trade or had fallen off before the trade, but the sheer magnitude of top prospects traded makes it next to impossible to believe that none of these guys would have made made a positive impact on 2020 and 2021. Chances are several would have.

 

None of us "cliff-dwellers" have ever said we did not want to trade any of these guys. We had some duplicated value that almost necessitated some players being traded away at some point.

 

Just abou all these guys were traded away for players under team control for 2-3 years only. There's never been an emptying of the farm like this under Henry's reign. Theo always tried to balance prospect trades and spread them out over many years. Ben may have held onto too many prospects and for too long, but I for one, find it confusing that so many posters seem to feel like it just takes "smart management" to be able to recover from such a massive loss of young talent. It would have been hard, not impossible but hard, to recover, even if the rules haven't changed. It's much harder knowing the rules have changed significantly.

 

I am with you Moon. The magnitude of prospects we have traded away under the Dombrowski era is astounding.

[Kimmi]

He certainly earned his money in 2016.

 

He is not far off from earning it this year either.

[a700hitter]

He is not far off from earning it this year either.

$21.5 million doesn't buy you much these days. What is Pom worth $150 million this season?

[moonslav59]

Well, having scored more than 100 runs better than our closest competitor, I thought our offense would be good enough to still be in the top 3. I also really thought that Price would become the ace that we had hoped for when we signed him.

 

In short, I thought our team was a strong competitor before we traded for Sale.

 

Well, if Price had a season close to what Sale is having, we would have still been a strong competitor.

 

Nothing wrong with having 2 or more aces has always been my mantra.

 

Pedro/Schilling

 

Beckett/Shilling

 

Lester/Lackey

[moonslav59]

I am with you Moon. The magnitude of prospects we have traded away under the Dombrowski era is astounding.

 

Some of the names on the list are not big names, some were better prospects when we traded them, some were better long before we traded them.

 

What's astounding to me is what a tight time frame all these guys got dealt in, and how some seem to feel trading all these guys will barely affect our long term outlook.

 

[Nick]

It's shocking to me that some seem to feel trading away all the prospects listed below is not going to have a major impact on our long term outlook. I have no issue with the argument that we might be smart over the next few years, draft better than we have in the past with picks below number 20, sign a few more good international free agents with less money to spend, and do better with our free agent signings than Pablo, HRam and Price. Maybe we can acquire enough good prospects to make another Sale-type trade before 2020 arrives. Sure, any of this is possible, however we may need close to all of this happening to be HIGHLY COMPETITIVE in 2020 or 2021. To me, that is improbable, if not highly improbable.

 

Recently traded prospects listed by highest ranking on soxprospects.com

 

1 Yoan Moncada

3 Anderson Espinoza

3 Manuel Margot

3 Garin Cecchini

5 Michael Kopech

6 Javier Guerra

7 Luis Ax. Basabe

9 Maurice Dubron

12 Travis Shaw (not a prospect when traded)

12 Wendell Rijo

13 Logan Allen

13 Pat Light

18 Luis Aj. Basabe

20 Carlos Asuage

21 Victor Diaz

24 Josh Pennington

30 Aaron Wilkerson

40 Jose Almonte

 

Now, clearly some of these guys have fallen off since the trade or had fallen off before the trade, but the sheer magnitude of top prospects traded makes it next to impossible to believe that none of these guys would have made made a positive impact on 2020 and 2021. Chances are several would have.

 

None of us "cliff-dwellers" have ever said we did not want to trade any of these guys. We had some duplicated value that almost necessitated some players being traded away at some point.

 

Just abou all these guys were traded away for players under team control for 2-3 years only. There's never been an emptying of the farm like this under Henry's reign. Theo always tried to balance prospect trades and spread them out over many years. Ben may have held onto too many prospects and for too long, but I for one, find it confusing that so many posters seem to feel like it just takes "smart management" to be able to recover from such a massive loss of young talent. It would have been hard, not impossible but hard, to recover, even if the rules haven't changed. It's much harder knowing the rules have changed significantly.

 

 

 

You and Kimmi go on and on and lament the loss of Sox Prospects Top 20 players.

 

Who on this list would help us NOW? Moncada is blocked by Dustin and Devers. Are any of these guys game changers? They are all fringe players until proven otherwise. Spare me how good they are....They can't break into our lineup. THAT'S A FACT JACK.

[oldtimer]

You and Kimmi go on and on and lament the loss of Sox Prospects Top 20 players.

 

Who on this list would help us NOW? Moncada is blocked by Dustin and Devers. Are any of these guys game changers? They are all fringe players until proven otherwise. Spare me how good they are....They can't break into our lineup. THAT'S A FACT JACK.

 

Perhaps there is a school of thought that having a few of these people around would allow completing a trade for a much needed power bat or two going forward The cupboard is kind of bare and our needs will be real. I hope we can sign some of our excellent young players to long term contracts to cover three years out, but we will still need others.

[moonslav59]

You and Kimmi go on and on and lament the loss of Sox Prospects Top 20 players.

 

Who on this list would help us NOW? Moncada is blocked by Dustin and Devers. Are any of these guys game changers? They are all fringe players until proven otherwise. Spare me how good they are....They can't break into our lineup. THAT'S A FACT JACK.

 

I'm not in denial that these guys brought us great talent for a 2-3 year window.

 

Some seem to be in denial about how losing these prospects will affect our long term future.

 

I'm not lamenting anything. I'm enjoying the ride. Personally, I think we went too far and we'll feel the effects later. I'm not sticking my head in the sand.

 

I have also said again and again that I was not against trading top prospects, especially ones blocked by others. I suggested trading Moncada for Sale many times long before it happened. I suggested trading Margot, Espinoza and others for Sale and/or Quintana. I'm not for keeping each and every prospect, but it is nothing short of astounding the sheer number of top prospects traded in a very small time frame. I'm not crying about it. It is what it is. We almost certainly sacrificed some of our future for a 3 year window. I've seen teams do it for a one year window. I'm glad we didn't do that. I'm not upset. I'm going to love watching the Sox over the next 3-4 years.

 

I'm going to watch them afterwards, God willing, and I hope I can enjoy them as much as I will from now until 2021, but I'm thinking the odds are stacked against us being as good as we are now.

 

 

[Nick]

Farm system exists only to help the parent club. Minor league players can be replacements on major league rosters or they can be traded to acquire major league talent.

 

C-set for 3 more years

1B..

2B-set for 4 more years

SS-set for 2 more years

3B-set for 6 more years

LF-set for 5 more years

CF-set for 3 more years

RF-set for 3 more years

DH-set for at least one more year

 

Immediate need is a 1B, then a ss, two positions easily filled.

 

Not sure why we're panicking;

Edited September 18, 2017 by Nick

[jacksonianmarch]

Nick, you're not seeing slav's point. You dealt from the prospect pool and depleted it, yet still got good value. The problem is, your new GM dealt all of it sans Devers and this years development hasn't done well to fill the void. This leaves you with a thin upper level of the minors and hence leaves you without top prospects to deal. This is why you have a cliff in 2-3 years. Following DD's path will necessitate a rebuild or an investment in terms of salary beyond which Henry has never gone. Hence the cliff. You'll be rebuilding

[jacksonianmarch]

And that's not necessarily a bad thing. After 2015, if someone told you that a new GM was going to come in and you'll go worst to first for the next five years then need a huge rebuild, you'd probably take it

[moonslav59]

Perhaps there is a school of thought that having a few of these people around would allow completing a trade for a much needed power bat or two going forward The cupboard is kind of bare and our needs will be real. I hope we can sign some of our excellent young players to long term contracts to cover three years out, but we will still need others.

 

I'm happy with this year's draft picks, but it's way too early.

 

I think we did very well with international signings, considering the new restrictions. (I've felt good about other drafts and signings that have not worked out well.)

 

I'm hoping like hell I'm dead wrong about the cliff. Nothing is certain in baseball- you just go with the odds and hope for the best.

 

You try to improve your odds on paper ever winter and sometimes at the deadline. But, the game is played on the field, and anything can happen.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

The thing that people aren't taking into perspective when I propose a cliff is also that the sox salaries aren't dropping for 2018. You've got Moreland coming off the books. Whoop dee doo. If Price is hurting, then you need a starter and a power hitter. You're already paying a massive payroll amount and the arb guys are all getting more expensive. This means that you're either completely decimating your farm or dealing young big league talent to help that need (and creating another hole) or more likely, Johnny is opening his wallet again. That will make it much harder to re-sign your arb guys when they hit FA

[moonslav59]

Farm system exists only to help the parent club. Minor league players can be replacements on major league rosters or they can be traded to acquire major league talent.

 

C-set for 3 more years

1B..

2B-set for 4 more years

SS-set for 2 more years

3B-set for 6 more years

LF-set for 5 more years

CF-set for 3 more years

RF-set for 3 more years

DH-set for at least one more year

 

Immediate need is a 1B, then a ss, two positions easily filled.

 

Not sure why we're panicking;

 

Who is panicking.

 

The panic comes if 3 years.

 

5 of the 9 positions you listed will be up for free agency before or at 3 years. Here's the staff years:

 

After this year...

Years

0 Fister

1 Pomeranz

2 Sale

2 Porcello

3 Wright

4 Rodriguez

5 or 1 if opts out Price

 

Pen

0 Reed, Abad

1 Kimbrel, Kelly, Ross

2 Thornburg, Workman

3 Smith

4 Barnes, Hembree

4+ Scott, Maddox

 

It;s going to get very expensive trying to keep all the best ones.

 

[moonslav59]

The thing that people aren't taking into perspective when I propose a cliff is also that the sox salaries aren't dropping for 2018. You've got Moreland coming off the books. Whoop dee doo. If Price is hurting, then you need a starter and a power hitter. You're already paying a massive payroll amount and the arb guys are all getting more expensive. This means that you're either completely decimating your farm or dealing young big league talent to help that need (and creating another hole) or more likely, Johnny is opening his wallet again. That will make it much harder to re-sign your arb guys when they hit FA

 

The good thing is, every player we lose this winter is not a very essential piece to 2018 success, except maybe Nunez.

 

$6.5M Young

$6.0M Davis (but we pay about 1/3)

$5.5M Moreland

$4.2M Nunez (but we pay only about 1/3)

$2M Abad

(Fister & Boyer)

 

All together this is a significant amount of money coming off the books- maybe close to $18M.

 

Option and Arb raises will eat up just about all of that, if not more. The hope is Henry is going to open up the wallet and allow us to go significantly over the luxury tax limit, since the tax is now reset. That should be enough for one mega signing- most likely a clean-up hitter that plays 1B, but it could be a DH type or a 3bman, if we deccide to move Devers to 1B over the winter.

 

[oldtimer]

The good thing is, every player we lose this winter is not a very essential piece to 2018 success, except maybe Nunez.

 

$6.5M Young

$6.0M Davis (but we pay about 1/3)

$5.5M Moreland

$4.2M Nunez (but we pay only about 1/3)

$2M Abad

(Fister & Boyer)

 

All together this is a significant amount of money coming off the books- maybe close to $18M.

 

Option and Arb raises will eat up just about all of that, if not more. The hope is Henry is going to open up the wallet and allow us to go significantly over the luxury tax limit, since the tax is now reset. That should be enough for one mega signing- most likely a clean-up hitter that plays 1B, but it could be a DH type or a 3bman, if we deccide to move Devers to 1B over the winter.

 

 

Looking at our best player Betts getting $9.36 K when Hanley gets $22.7 mil, I would expect arb raises to be substantial for many. As far as Devers winding up at 1st base, it is not all that far fetched. His error total at 3rd is high and although he will undoutedly get better, they say he is expected to mature into a heavier even stronger player, so 1st might be a best spot. Either way, we definitely need a middle of the order guy and Hanley doesn't seem to fill that bill going forward despite his big salary.

[Nick]

Who is panicking.

 

The panic comes if 3 years.

 

5 of the 9 positions you listed will be up for free agency before or at 3 years. Here's the staff years:

 

After this year...

Years

0 Fister

1 Pomeranz

2 Sale

2 Porcello

3 Wright

4 Rodriguez

5 or 1 if opts out Price

 

Pen

0 Reed, Abad

1 Kimbrel, Kelly, Ross

2 Thornburg, Workman

3 Smith

4 Barnes, Hembree

4+ Scott, Maddox

 

It;s going to get very expensive trying to keep all the best ones.

 

 

Winter of 2017 We will deal with our 1B situation, maybe another temporary fix. (We can always plug in Sam Travis, I still think he'll be solid hitter in majors)

Winter of 2018 We will need to deal with Pomeranz', Kimbrel's and Kelly's free agency. (Carson Smith will have two years of team control after Kimbrel's departure if we don't extend him).

Winter of 2019 We will need to deal with Porcello, Sale and Xander's free agency

Winter of 2020 We will need to deal with JBJ and Betts' free agency

 

As good as Sale has been this year, lets see where he is after two more years of 200+ innings and 300 K's. Other pitchers and fielders will emerge. 3 years is long time away. Chavis, Mata and Flores may become very attractive trade pieces in couple of years.

 

Sure we have some work to do but I don't see us striking out completely. At the latest, Pablo and Hanley's contracts will expire after 2019, providing $40M in spending. You do not know who may emerge as a replacement, especially on pitching side.

Edited September 18, 2017 by Nick

[jacksonianmarch]

If Devers moves to 1b, then your ability to get a bopper shrinks considerably. There are a multitude of 1b's every year who are basically DH's with a glove who you could add to your lineup and improve. But if Devers moves over, you'll need to go after Moustakas, who I'm not all that convinced is a middle of the order bat over the next 6 years or so. I think the sox go after JD Martinez. He'd be perfect in your lineup and I think the plan would be to convert him to 1b

[Bellhorn04]

Sure we have some work to do but I don't see us striking out completely. At the latest, Pablo and Hanley's contracts will expire after 2019, providing $40M in spending. You do not know who may emerge as a replacement, especially on pitching side.

 

I think it has become obvious they need to keep Hanley's option from vesting, even if it means just flat out releasing him like Pablo. You can't be on the hook for another year paying $22 million to a DH with a sub-.750 OPS and a negative WAR.

[Spudboy]

I think it has become obvious they need to keep Hanley's option from vesting, even if it means just flat out releasing him like Pablo. You can't be on the hook for another year paying $22 million to a DH with a sub-.750 OPS and a negative WAR.

 

Good point Bell. I have been pondering this idea for a couple of weeks. Are we sure that if the Sox drop Hanley that the option does not kick in?

 

If it doesn't I say boot his ass out.

[Nick]

The thing that people aren't taking into perspective when I propose a cliff is also that the sox salaries aren't dropping for 2018. You've got Moreland coming off the books. Whoop dee doo. If Price is hurting, then you need a starter and a power hitter. You're already paying a massive payroll amount and the arb guys are all getting more expensive. This means that you're either completely decimating your farm or dealing young big league talent to help that need (and creating another hole) or more likely, Johnny is opening his wallet again. That will make it much harder to re-sign your arb guys when they hit FA

 

Actually Young's $6.5M also comes off.

 

I think the consensus is that Sox will spend up to $39M over the luxury limit, thus avoiding the second threashhold for additional penalties. That gives the team 197M + 39M or $236M to spend in 2018. I doubt they need to go that high unless they trade for a big bat (Stanton/Votto). We're just replacing Moreland this winter.

Edited September 18, 2017 by Nick

[Spudboy]

"Stanley I want to go to Miami".

[Nick]

Good point Bell. I have been pondering this idea for a couple of weeks. Are we sure that if the Sox drop Hanley that the option does not kick in?

 

If it doesn't I say boot his ass out.

 

If we drop Hanley and he gets picked up by another team and fulfills the vesting requirement with his new team, then yes we're definitely on the hook.

 

No one put guns to our head to give that contract to Hanley.

[Bellhorn04]

If we drop Hanley and he gets picked up by another team and fulfills the vesting requirement with his new team, then yes we're definitely on the hook.

 

No one put guns to our head to give that contract to Hanley.

 

Are you sure that's the way it works if you release him? Didn't the Giants basically just sign Pablo to a whole new contract at minimum wage?

[Spudboy]

Are you sure that's the way it works if you release him? Didn't the Giants basically just sign Pablo to a whole new contract at minimum wage?

 

IFIRC the Giants are liable for a prorated portion of the vet minimum for the season while the Sox continue to pay the balance of the $19 or so mil.

 

I could be wrong because I don't give two s*** about Fatboy.

[Nick]

Release the player[edit]

If a player is not traded, but has cleared waivers, he may be released from the team. The player is then a free agent and may sign with any team, including the team that just released him. The team that releases him is responsible for the salary the player is owed, less what he is paid by the team that signs him (in practice, the amount paid by the signing team is usually a pro-rated portion of the Major League minimum salary)

 

I'm not a lawyer but I just can't see Sox getting out of the liability for the vesting amount. Otherwise every team would simply 'release' a player to avoid paying player's vesting amount. Again, no one forced Sox to give out a contract with vesting rights.

[moonslav59]

Winter of 2017 We will deal with our 1B situation, maybe another temporary fix. (We can always plug in Sam Travis, I still think he'll be solid hitter in majors)

Winter of 2018 We will need to deal with Pomeranz', Kimbrel's and Kelly's free agency. (Carson Smith will have two years of team control after Kimbrel's departure if we don't extend him).

Winter of 2019 We will need to deal with Porcello, Sale and Xander's free agency

Winter of 2020 We will need to deal with JBJ and Betts' free agency

 

As good as Sale has been this year, lets see where he is after two more years of 200+ innings and 300 K's. Other pitchers and fielders will emerge. 3 years is long time away. Chavis, Mata and Flores may become very attractive trade pieces in couple of years.

 

Sure we have some work to do but I don't see us striking out completely. At the latest, Pablo and Hanley's contracts will expire after 2019, providing $40M in spending. You do not know who may emerge as a replacement, especially on pitching side.

 

I've said all along "Nobody knows for sure." Even if Sale decline, we'll still need to replace him with an ace. If we have to do that through free agency, we can't keep all of our core or maybe even most of it.

 

Yes, Chavis, Mata, Flores and I'll add Groome can help or provide trade pieces, but the pool of top prospect talent is smaller than it might have been. By trading away so many prospects, we have a significantly smaller chance of getting multiple trade pieces or cheap young infusion into our 25 man roster by 2020 or 2021.

 

I've never said we will completely "stike out" in 3-4 years. As long as our budget is near the top, I can't see us ever being projected to finish last, and that's why I've brought up the subjectivity of the word "cliff". To me, the "cliff means we are likely, not surely, not going to be HIGHLY competitive for at least a 2-3 year window beginning in 2020 or 2021. Others may think worse. Many think we'll do better.