Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020

[moonslav59]

2021

Devers arb 1

Beni arb 2

Price yr 6

Pedroia final yr

E Rod final arb

M Barnes final arb

H Hembree final arb

R Scott arb 2

Ben Taylor arb 2

R. Elias arb 3

B Swihart arb 4

 

Looks like we'll have close to $150M to spend.....no worries.

 

Maybe $150M, and what will that buy in 2021? 5 or 6 good players? That leaves a lot of gaps.

 

I don't see us finishing last in 2021 or 2022, but I doubt we'll be competitive for a ring.

 

And by the way, we're getting pretty darn good at predicting hurricane paths and power. Not perfect, but pretty close.

[S5Dewey]

 

And by the way, we're getting pretty darn good at predicting hurricane paths and power. Not perfect, but pretty close.

 

I'm wondering how JetBlue park is going to weather this storm. It's gone from being on the edge of the hurricane to being directly in the path of it.

[Kimmi]

To draw an analogy from current events, predicting what a team will look like in 3 years is like trying to accurately predict the path of a hurricane. While you may get an idea of the approximate path, a lot can and will happen over the next 3 years.

 

Of course we don't know what the team will look like in 3 years. A lot can happen between now and then. As things happen, I will update my opinion, much like the weather forecasters update their predictions. At the moment, the cliff is there.

[moonslav59]

Of course we don't know what the team will look like in 3 years. A lot can happen between now and then. As things happen, I will update my opinion, much like the weather forecasters update their predictions. At the moment, the cliff is there.

 

Agreed, but that article we both liked about Bannister sure made things look at least a little bit better.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

8 years at 33 a year, would you do it? Something like this I figure. If he has bad knees, you stay away from him. Knee problems never get better.

 

Machado will sign a deal similar to Harper's in terms of opt outs. Harper is the better player, so I expect him to get more money. I think the deals will be LONG and front loaded with an opt out in 3 seasons.

[Northern Star]

Hosmer would be an excellent pick-up, always liked his game.

 

Too bad Milton Bradley retired. I REALLY liked his game.

[Northern Star]

Two things not being included in the equation about three years from now: Donald Trump and North Korea.

[jacksonianmarch]

There is a reason for your cliff. You have a large proportion of your core up for FA around the same time. In order to get your core, you had to deal a lot of young talent, hence the "next wave" concept isn't there. You either need to refill with young talent or pay for the older talent. I don't see Henry spending the requisite money to keep the gang together into their 30s

[mvp 78]

How about for Moustakas this winter?

 

No. He's not much of an upgrade from Devers right now. In a year or two, Devers will be better than Moustakas ever was.

[mvp 78]

There is a reason for your cliff. You have a large proportion of your core up for FA around the same time. In order to get your core, you had to deal a lot of young talent, hence the "next wave" concept isn't there. You either need to refill with young talent or pay for the older talent. I don't see Henry spending the requisite money to keep the gang together into their 30s

 

Yeah, he just likes signing guys like Pablo and Hanley to ridiculous contracts, not to guys that are actually worth it.

[Emp9]

There is a reason for your cliff. You have a large proportion of your core up for FA around the same time. In order to get your core, you had to deal a lot of young talent, hence the "next wave" concept isn't there. You either need to refill with young talent or pay for the older talent. I don't see Henry spending the requisite money to keep the gang together into their 30s

 

I think your definition of "core" differs from mine. We didn't deal away any talent for talent we already had ( i.e. Betts, JBJ, Beni, Devers, Bogey).

[mvp 78]

I think your definition of "core" differs from mine. We didn't deal away any talent for talent we already had ( i.e. Betts, JBJ, Beni, Devers, Bogey).

 

Right, where would Margot be playing this year? Which of the other guys that were dealt would be getting playing time in the next few years?

 

They made good use of talent they had no MLB spot for.

[Emp9]

Right, where would Margot be playing this year? Which of the other guys that were dealt would be getting playing time in the next few years?

 

They made good use of talent they had no MLB spot for.

 

Can't hold onto them all and we certainly couldn't play them all. Would I have tried to hold onto one or two more blue chips on the way? Sure. But overall, it's not about having the #1 farm system year in year out. Not if you want to compete for a championship in the Majors. This is the ebb and flow of almost every team's system. Would I have done things a little different? Sure. But not that different.

[moonslav59]

No. He's not much of an upgrade from Devers right now. In a year or two, Devers will be better than Moustakas ever was.

 

The comp is not Moose v Devers, it's Moose v Moreland.

[moonslav59]

Right, where would Margot be playing this year? Which of the other guys that were dealt would be getting playing time in the next few years?

 

They made good use of talent they had no MLB spot for.

 

The argument by many of us, was more about trading Margot plus 3 other prospects for a RP'er. It was not about us wanting to keep 15 prospects with only 9 slots.

 

I'm not saying it could have happened, but maybe we could have gotten Quintana and/or Gray or some inexpensive big bat for some mix of Margot, Espinoza, Shaw, Dubon, Guerra, Asuage, Allen and Pennington (plus maybe others).

[Bellhorn04]

The argument by many of us, was more about trading Margot plus 3 other prospects for a RP'er. It was not about us wanting to keep 15 prospects with only 9 slots.

 

I'm not saying it could have happened, but maybe we could have gotten Quintana and/or Gray or some inexpensive big bat for some mix of Margot, Espinoza, Shaw, Dubon, Guerra, Asuage, Allen and Pennington (plus maybe others).

 

Trading that much for Quintana might have been a mistake too. He's not really pitching that well this year.

[mvp 78]

The comp is not Moose v Devers, it's Moose v Moreland.

 

Well, it should be easier to find a cheaper 1B type than signing Moustakas. No, I'm not moving Devers off of 3B for Moustakas when talent evaluators are saying Moustakas needs to be moved to 1B.

[mvp 78]

The argument by many of us, was more about trading Margot plus 3 other prospects for a RP'er. It was not about us wanting to keep 15 prospects with only 9 slots.

 

I'm not saying it could have happened, but maybe we could have gotten Quintana and/or Gray or some inexpensive big bat for some mix of Margot, Espinoza, Shaw, Dubon, Guerra, Asuage, Allen and Pennington (plus maybe others).

 

By calling him a RP'er you are really underselling what Kimbrel is.

[mvp 78]

And Gray kinda sucks. I wouldn't trade Kimbrel for Gray.

[moonslav59]

And Gray kinda sucks. I wouldn't trade Kimbrel for Gray.

 

Gray is an ace with an injury history. He may end up being Buch, or he may end up being the ace he was for the A's. He is healthy now and pitching very well this year.

[moonslav59]

By calling him a RP'er you are really underselling what Kimbrel is.

 

He's doing great --this year, but I didn't know he was a starter.

[moonslav59]

Well, it should be easier to find a cheaper 1B type than signing Moustakas. No, I'm not moving Devers off of 3B for Moustakas when talent evaluators are saying Moustakas needs to be moved to 1B.

 

I'm not a big Moose fan, really, I'm not.

 

I don't want to make new holes by trading for a big bat like Votto or Stanton. Plus, there's more issues with those two than just new holes created by getting them.

 

My point is this: we need a big bat for next year to hit clean-up. (We could probably use two, but let's just get one great one.)

 

What are the best FA power hitters this winter?

 

1. JD Martinez: injury history, plays OF (we have 3), would have to DH and force HRam to play 1B FT. Devers plays 3B.

2. Moustakas: unknown if power is sustainable, not a great defender, will cost a lot of money and years, would force Devers or him to move to 1B.

3. Hosmer: NOT A POWER HITTER, not even a consistent hitter overall, great glove at 1B, allows Devers to continue at 3B.

 

Truthfully, I don't like any of the choices for the reasons given, but certainly Moose looks like one of the best 2 choices of these three.

 

Sure, we can try Duda, or Morrison, or Alonso, but I seriously don't expect any of them to answer our biggest need this winter.

 

Tell me a better idea. I mean that with all sincerity. I'd love to find a better plan that doesn't involve trading a vet or a star and creating a new hole. I'd love nothing more than to add a legitimate 4th choice.

[mvp 78]

Martinez is a poor defensive OF. He should be moved to 1B or DH this offseason.

 

I'd go:

 

Martinez

Hosmer

Moustakas

 

if I'm just ranking those 3.

[mvp 78]

There are other options if they don't want to spend as much: Santana, Reynolds, LoMo, Alonso, Duda, Frazier or even in house options like Travis/HanRam/Brentz with a platoon left handed DH.

[moonslav59]

There are other options if they don't want to spend as much: Santana, Reynolds, LoMo, Alonso, Duda, Frazier or even in house options like Travis/HanRam/Brentz with a platoon left handed DH.

 

Then expect the same anemic offense next year.

[moonslav59]

Martinez is a poor defensive OF. He should be moved to 1B or DH this offseason.

 

I'd go:

 

Martinez

Hosmer

Moustakas

 

if I'm just ranking those 3.

 

I like Martinez most as a clean-up hitter, but it creates 2 big problems:

 

1. HRam is forced to play 1B, or we add a 1Bman & bench our current HR hitter to add JD.

2. When we play in NL parks, one of our 4 OF'er has to sit.

[mvp 78]

Then expect the same anemic offense next year.

 

Would Hosmer really make that much of a difference?

[mvp 78]

Hosmer = 4.1 WAR

LoMo = 3.4 WAR

Santana = 2.8 WAR

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

Why J.D. Martinez is starting to look like a central target for the Red Sox this winter

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/09/11/why-martinez-may-emerging-red-sox-top-offseason-target/wl1N7dEvg9NtaNrrwp8RwO/story.html

[moonslav59]

Would Hosmer really make that much of a difference?

 

Depends on which Hosmer shows up.

 

I do think he's an upgrade from Moreland, but he's really not a 4-5 slot hitter.

 

Hosmer since his rookie year (all 547+ PAs)

OPS HR

.799 19

.663 14

.801 17

.716 0

.822 18

.761 25

.910 24 (so far)

 

If he hits .910, which certainly could be an outlier, he'd be more than a slight upgrade from Moreland. If he hits .668, .716, or even .761, then no, he wouldn't be that helpful.

 

If we're going by just 2017 numbers, then we might as well just take a flyer on Morrison (.884 36), Duda (.874 29) or Alonso (.858 25) . They might take one year deals and cost much less than Hosmer. Heck, Reynolds has 29 HRs (.858).

 

To me, I want a better gamble than these guys.