Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020

[jacksonianmarch]

I like Martinez most as a clean-up hitter, but it creates 2 big problems:

 

1. HRam is forced to play 1B, or we add a 1Bman & bench our current HR hitter to add JD.

2. When we play in NL parks, one of our 4 OF'er has to sit.

 

JD played 1b in the minors. It isn't difficult to teach a COF 1b. JD is an abysmal OFer. He only has a 2-3 WAR in 2017 and he has an OPS over 1.000. That shows you how bad he is in the OF

[moonslav59]

JD played 1b in the minors. It isn't difficult to teach a COF 1b. JD is an abysmal OFer. He only has a 2-3 WAR in 2017 and he has an OPS over 1.000. That shows you how bad he is in the OF

 

We'd get him to DH- not play 1B or OF, but when we're in an NL park, he would not sit every game. That's why I said, we'd have to sit an OF'er (Beni, JBJ, Betts or JD).

[jacksonianmarch]

So be it. You dealt with that with Papi for years and didn't mind

[moonslav59]

So be it. You dealt with that with Papi for years and didn't mind

 

It hurt us- not Papi, and we did play Papi at 1B at times, but then we lost Napoli' bat, forced AGon to play RF (yuck!), and benched other fine hitters before them.

 

It's not a major concern, but getting a 1Bman to be our clean-up hitter works better in NL parks.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe $150M, and what will that buy in 2021? 5 or 6 good players? That leaves a lot of gaps.

 

I don't see us finishing last in 2021 or 2022, but I doubt we'll be competitive for a ring.

 

And by the way, we're getting pretty darn good at predicting hurricane paths and power. Not perfect, but pretty close.

 

No one knows where Hurricane Jose is going to hit yet.

[Slasher9]

No one knows where Hurricane Jose is going to hit yet.

i'll go with the European model. unlike the American version, the EU model was dead on with Irma 7 days before it hit.

EU has it hitting newfoundland. so it is written....

[Bellhorn04]

i'll go with the European model. unlike the American version, the EU model was dead on with Irma 7 days before it hit.

EU has it hitting newfoundland. so it is written....

 

OK Slash, you're in with Newfoundland.

 

How about you, moon? You got a 'close to perfect' prediction of Jose's path for us?

[S5Dewey]

I'm hoping it moves North but stays quite a way off shore. When that happens we get some swells and waves hitting the shore up here in Maine that are spectacular, but with no danger to the people. At least no danger to the people who are smart enough to stay out of the water!!

[moonslav59]

OK Slash, you're in with Newfoundland.

 

How about you, moon? You got a 'close to perfect' prediction of Jose's path for us?

 

No, but I'm not claiming to have a perfect prediction on 2021 and 2022 Sox projections either.

[Bellhorn04]

No, but I'm not claiming to have a perfect prediction on 2021 and 2022 Sox projections either.

 

notin's analogy was a good one then.

[OH FOY]

From I'm reading between the lines Hosmer is going to ask for big bucks, so might be out with this. I Project him to the Yanks, made for that Ball Park. They can move Bird in a Trade for Pitching.

I'm surprise Hanley only has 262 HRS in actually a 12 year career. Averages to close to 22 a year.

Edited September 13, 2017 by OH FOY!

[jacksonianmarch]

Don't want him. Bird is a very good player. He just has to be healthy

[OH FOY]

Yanks could have a real young infield if they keep Bird, in a couple of years.

[Nick]

Based on depth chart provided by MLB, Yankees' 9 position players are under team control for 23 years. Sox starters are under team control for 28 years. It's also difficult to project young players in the farm.

 

Thus most teams are in the same boat when it comes to pending cliff. It may or may not be good thing but we have more controlled years than the Yankees. I guess Kimmi would argue that Yankees are ready to replenish outgoing talent more so than the Sox. But again, it's difficult to project on minor leaguers. Both teams are fortunate that they have money to go get a player.

Edited September 13, 2017 by Nick

[Kimmi]

notin's analogy was a good one then.

 

That's fine. Even though forecasters/models can't predict with certainty what will happen that far out, they make their best predictions based on what they know now. If things don't change, those forecasts are likely to become an accurate reality. If things do change, the forecasts will be updated.

 

The same holds true with the cliff. We have all acknowledged that a lot can happen between now and 2020. Based on where we stand right now, a 3 year window with impending cliff is an accurate prediction.

[Kimmi]

Based on depth chart provided by MLB, Yankees' 9 position players are under team control for 23 years. Sox starters are under team control for 28 years. It's also difficult to project young players in the farm.

 

Thus most teams are in the same boat when it comes to pending cliff. It may or may not be good thing but we have more controlled years than the Yankees. I guess Kimmi would argue that Yankees are ready to replenish outgoing talent more so than the Sox. But again, it's difficult to project on minor leagues. Both teams are fortunate that they have money to go get a player.

 

I hate the Yankees, and as much as it pains me to say it, I would rather be in the Yankees situation moving forward to the longer term than in ours.

[Bellhorn04]

That's fine. Even though forecasters/models can't predict with certainty what will happen that far out, they make their best predictions based on what they know now. If things don't change, those forecasts are likely to become an accurate reality. If things do change, the forecasts will be updated.

 

The same holds true with the cliff. We have all acknowledged that a lot can happen between now and 2020. Based on where we stand right now, a 3 year window with impending cliff is an accurate prediction.

 

I could be wrong but I don't think the term 'accurate' can be applied to a forecast until results are known.

 

It's certainly a valid prediction at this point.

[jacksonianmarch]

I hate the Yankees, and as much as it pains me to say it, I would rather be in the Yankees situation moving forward to the longer term than in ours.

 

Kimmi's honety is refreshing. Nick, cmon now. I am so glad Sandy Leon or Christian Vasquez tipped the scales for you, lol. The Core is the most important thing. Your core is Beni, Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley and Devers. Devers

and Beni will be around for awhile. The other three B's, for 2-3 more years. The Yankees core has more time together and is staggered, meaning we don't have to sign everyone within a two year window. Also, NY isn't afraid to lead the league in salary if they had to.

 

Our core

Gregorius FA after 2018

Sanchez FA after 2022

Judge FA after 2022

Castro after 2020

Severino after 2022

 

We have 3 2022 guys on there, but the reason why we don't have a cliff is that our farm is absolutely stocked top to bottom. We might replace Castro by next year. Our 3b of the future could be a guy who's around for 6-7 seasons. Who knows?

[mvp 78]

My favorite thing about TS is that if people agree with your position on something you can say "wow, so true" or "I agree with your honesty" or "+1,000,000." Someday I hope to see some of you appreciate the honesty of a poster when they are presenting a belief that opposes your own.

[S5Dewey]

My favorite thing about TS is that if people agree with your position on something you can say "wow, so true" or "I agree with your honesty" or "+1,000,000." Someday I hope to see some of you appreciate the honesty of a poster when they are presenting a belief that opposes your own.

 

I believe that most posters are sincere in their beliefs. I appreciate that and respect it. And I expect the same thing in return.

[Slasher9]

My favorite thing about TS is that if people agree with your position on something you can say "wow, so true" or "I agree with your honesty" or "+1,000,000." Someday I hope to see some of you appreciate the honesty of a poster when they are presenting a belief that opposes your own.

 

+1,000,000

 

Someday i Suppose....

[cp176]

My favorite thing about TS is that if people agree with your position on something you can say "wow, so true" or "I agree with your honesty" or "+1,000,000." Someday I hope to see some of you appreciate the honesty of a poster when they are presenting a belief that opposes your own.

 

This is why your opinions have grown on me. This is a very good and worthwhile statement. Thanks for saying something that most of us probably think about saying from time to time.

[mvp 78]

This is why your opinions have grown on me. This is a very good and worthwhile statement. Thanks for saying something that most of us probably think about saying from time to time.

 

[Spudboy]

My favorite thing about TS is that if people agree with your position on something you can say "wow, so true" or "I agree with your honesty" or "+1,000,000." Someday I hope to see some of you appreciate the honesty of a poster when they are presenting a belief that opposes your own.

 

Don't hold your breath on that one buddy.

 

I, for one, don't give one s*** about what experts "forecast".

 

It is all conjecture and serves little purpose unless you bet to make money.

[Kimmi]

My favorite thing about TS is that if people agree with your position on something you can say "wow, so true" or "I agree with your honesty" or "+1,000,000." Someday I hope to see some of you appreciate the honesty of a poster when they are presenting a belief that opposes your own.

 

That doesn't change the fact that I am honest and refreshing.

[a700hitter]

I hate the Yankees, and as much as it pains me to say it, I would rather be in the Yankees situation moving forward to the longer term than in ours.

This is just dumb.

[moonslav59]

Key phrase: "long term".

[a700hitter]

Key phrase: "long term".

Still dumb.

[moonslav59]

Still dumb.

 

Fine to disagree, but to say "dumb" when you yourself say it's impossible to project that far.

 

The Yanks have a better farm. Not many disagree with that.

 

The Yanks have their good young talent under control for longer than ours.

 

Their future budget canand will probably go much higher than ours.

 

It's not "dumb" to think their long term outlook is better than ours.

Edited September 15, 2017 by moonslav59

[a700hitter]

Fine to disagree, but to say "dumb" when you yourself say it'sipo

Just my opinion. I am not buying the Yankee future hype at all.