Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah - something like that. And what is interesting is - I think it is good for both sides. Again - if Harper triggers his opt out - it means the club has gotten a ton of value out of him.

 

So yeah a deal which will have a huge headline number (10 years/400 million) but is in practical terms is a lot smaller (4 years 170 million or something)

 

And knowing Harper and his representation, they are going to want that flexibility. If you are guaranteed $330 million, but you get 40% of it in the first 3 seasons, then it gives you options on the opt out. A $40 mil AAV would be crippling in this new lux tax economy. A $33 mil AAV while paying $43 mil would be much more enticing

[Kimmi]

Trout got guaranteed BIG money prior to even being arbitration eligible while allowing himself to return to the market at 29. I cannot fault him for that.

 

This type of deal is good for both sides. I am fully on board for giving Mookie something like this.

[Kimmi]

Not sure we ALL thought that. I would've preferred we traded for a top SP before we signed someone like Price or Cueto to big money. Given our starting staff at the time, signing Price was logical enough, but still risky. I hope we get to sign Betts and JBJ to extensions. Much less risk than a 30+ SP. Although I do worry a little about JBJ getting hurt in the field.

 

Yes, I realize that some people were against giving Price the huge contract, myself being one of them. I am against giving a long term contract to a 30+ year old pitcher. Actually, I'm pretty much against long term contracts altogether.

 

What I was trying to say was that if we are going to hand out that type of contract to a 30+ year old pitcher, Price would be the best bet.

 

It's similar to the way I feel about giving Mookie a 10 year deal. I'm opposed handing out that type of contract, but if we are going to do it, Mookie would be the guy to give it to.

[moonslav59]

What I was trying to say was that if we are going to hand out that type of contract to a 30+ year old pitcher, Price would be the best bet.

 

That was my opinion from the start as well.

 

My other main opinion was to save top prospects for trades like Sale (and/or Quintana). Great pitchers with low-cost and 3+ years of team control.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sox are said to be trying to get Sale to sign an extension which would include a raise for the next few seasons. That'll be hard. As it stands, Sale has already got life changing money coming to him, and he's slated to hit FA prior to his 31st birthday. My guess is the sox would have to give him a big time extension for him to forgo his only foray into FA

[moonslav59]

Sox are said to be trying to get Sale to sign an extension which would include a raise for the next few seasons. That'll be hard. As it stands, Sale has already got life changing money coming to him, and he's slated to hit FA prior to his 31st birthday. My guess is the sox would have to give him a big time extension for him to forgo his only foray into FA

 

Yes. I'd do it, if the contract does not go too much past 34 or 35 years old.

[jacksonianmarch]

You're going to have to. There's no way he signs an extension for 3 years or so.

[moonslav59]

So, have any "cliff dwellers" been convinced that the 3 year window is a "myth" or had been "debunked" on this thread?

[Kimmi]

So, have any "cliff dwellers" been convinced that the 3 year window is a "myth" or had been "debunked" on this thread?

 

Not one bit, but it takes a lot to change my mind.

 

Trey Ball pitching so well last night certainly moves the meter though. (Joking of course. Bell, I'm looking at you.)

 

I'm not sure that there are many cliff dwellers to begin with. Me, You, and Hugh? (That's kind of catchy, like You, Me, and Dupree LOL)

[Slasher9]

So, have any "cliff dwellers" been convinced that the 3 year window is a "myth" or had been "debunked" on this thread?

nope. but the conversation has given me hope.

[Bellhorn04]

Relax and enjoy the ride, that's what I say.

[moonslav59]

nope. but the conversation has given me hope.

 

I do feel slightly more hopeful, but not due to anyone's arguments here.

 

I liked our draft, and the rise of Chavis and a few others have been surprising.

 

Devers and Beni have taken the lead on this team, and they will be here beyond 2020. Many others may not be, but those two alone could act as soft mattresses at the bottom of the cliff.

[Bellhorn04]

I do feel slightly more hopeful, but not due to anyone's arguments here.

 

I liked our draft, and the rise of Chavis and a few others have been surprising.

 

Devers and Beni have taken the lead on this team, and they will be here beyond 2020. Many others may not be, but those two alone could act as soft mattresses at the bottom of the cliff.

 

You're expressing all this concern about the cliff, but at the same time asking why we didn't try to trade Groome, Chavis and others for Gray.

[mvp 78]

Relax and enjoy the ride, that's what I say.

 

If we're going over a cliff, let's do it Thelma and Louise style.

[moonslav59]

You're expressing all this concern about the cliff, but at the same time asking why we didn't try to trade Groome, Chavis and others for Gray.

 

No, I asked why we didn't kick the tires.

 

I loved the Sale trade, because the player received was for multiple years at a cheap cost. I love upgrading the rotation. I was not for other trades that have ended up looking very good so far (Kimbrel & Pom).

 

I would have traded Groome, Chavis, Beeks and Lakin for Gray, but not Mata and Flores. That offer I mentioned was just to prove we "had the pieces".

[Kimmi]

Relax and enjoy the ride, that's what I say.

 

Being concerned about an aspect of this team and relaxing and enjoying the ride are not mutually exclusive.

 

Otherwise, there would not be a single person on this forum who could relax and enjoy the ride.

[Nick]

Bottom line is we were getting pitiful production from 3B, 1B and DH spot relative to the league.

 

3B looks to be fixed.

 

Moreland is playing as well as expected and what we paid for. Plus he was to share the bag with Hanley with Yound taking over the DH spot on those days. That did not happen.

 

Hurt or otherwise, Hanley has been disappointing. There's always a nagging injury with the guy. Hell he can hurt himself just swinging the bat.

 

Travis would be serviceable and cost effective at 1B if Devers and Hanley gives us 30 home runs apiece.

 

Maybe we sign Nunez and see what we need at 2018 trade deadline. Our pen should be improved next year (although that can change quickly from year to year).

Edited August 18, 2017 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

No, I asked why we didn't kick the tires.

 

I loved the Sale trade, because the player received was for multiple years at a cheap cost. I love upgrading the rotation. I was not for other trades that have ended up looking very good so far (Kimbrel & Pom).

 

I would have traded Groome, Chavis, Beeks and Lakin for Gray, but not Mata and Flores. That offer I mentioned was just to prove we "had the pieces".

 

What I'm saying is you seem to want it both ways. You complain about DD setting us up for a cliff, then you complain about him not making a bigger effort to trade even more prospects and make the cliff even worse.

[Bellhorn04]

Being concerned about an aspect of this team and relaxing and enjoying the ride are not mutually exclusive.

 

Otherwise, there would not be a single person on this forum who could relax and enjoy the ride.

 

I was just being a joker. The sunglasses will be my 'being a joker' sign from now on.

[Nick]

Is it a norm to have constant injuries among our pitchers? Is that the future of mlb pitchers?

 

Just seems like we can't catch a break. (nobody got hurt, I'm talking in general)

Edited August 18, 2017 by Nick

[Kimmi]

Is it a norm to have constant injuries among our pitchers? Is that the future of mlb pitchers?

 

Just seems like we can't catch a break.

 

There are a lot of pitchers on the DL, I can tell you that.

[mvp 78]

Being concerned about an aspect of this team and relaxing and enjoying the ride are not mutually exclusive.

 

Otherwise, there would not be a single person on this forum who could relax and enjoy the ride.

 

I just drink my concerns away.

[sk7326]

The 1B/DH thing - if that is the hole in the lineup - is one of the easier holes to fill. You could look for a big answer - or fish in the pool of one year upside plays. For instance, I cannot imagine the Jays picking up Bautista's option ... I would throw an incentive laden 1 year deal at him to see what he has left. Curtis Granderson is another.

 

Hosmer is an upside play - and 1B is a buyer's market - but yeah his age could mean a team offers 5 years which would be hard to justify. Giving Travis a full legitimate run at the position is still on the table for me too.

[mvp 78]

The 1B/DH thing - if that is the hole in the lineup - is one of the easier holes to fill. You could look for a big answer - or fish in the pool of one year upside plays. For instance, I cannot imagine the Jays picking up Bautista's option ... I would throw an incentive laden 1 year deal at him to see what he has left. Curtis Granderson is another.

 

Hosmer is an upside play - and 1B is a buyer's market - but yeah his age could mean a team offers 5 years which would be hard to justify. Giving Travis a full legitimate run at the position is still on the table for me too.

 

They are working Brentz out at 1B. Unless Travis can get some extra bases once in a while, I'm not sure he's a good fit here.

[moonslav59]

Bottom line is we were getting pitiful production from 3B, 1B and DH spot relative to the league.

 

3B looks to be fixed.

 

Moreland is playing as well as expected and what we paid for. Plus he was to share the bag with Hanley with Yound taking over the DH spot on those days. That did not happen.

 

Hurt or otherwise, Hanley has been disappointing. There's always a nagging injury with the guy. Hell he can hurt himself just swinging the bat...

 

I agree, Young has only DH'd 16 times and HRam has played 1B only 10 times. We've only faced a lefty starter 26 times, though, so the 1B-DH platoon we hoped for has only missed 10 games.

[moonslav59]

What I'm saying is you seem to want it both ways. You complain about DD setting us up for a cliff, then you complain about him not making a bigger effort to trade even more prospects and make the cliff even worse.

 

I responded to a post that said we "din not have the pieces" (without Devers) to trade for Gray.

 

I did not say I wanted to trade Groome, Chavis, Mata and Flores for Gray.

 

I have been very clear about my philosophy. I'm not for hoarding prospects. I want a balance. I was against trading 4 prospects for a RP'er and a very high ceiling prospect for a 3/4 slot SP'er. I loved the Sale trade and have suggested trades like that my whole life. I love pitching and defense. I liked Pom and Kimbrel, but I did not think they were worth the prospects we gave up. Kimbrel has done about as I expected, while Pom has done better- but not by a whole lot (in totality). Those two trades certainly helped us be very good for the "window", but I think in totality, we went too far.

 

That does not mean that since I think we have already gone too far, we totally cease looking for opportunities to acquire great pitching, if the price is reasonable. In hindsight, had we not made all those non-Sale trades, amybe we'd have Sale, Quintana and Gray instead of Kimbrel, Thornburg, Pom & circumstance (I had to say it). I'm not saying I'm smarter than Ben & DD. My suggested team might have ended up doing worse than this one will do.

[moonslav59]

The 1B/DH thing - if that is the hole in the lineup - is one of the easier holes to fill. You could look for a big answer - or fish in the pool of one year upside plays. For instance, I cannot imagine the Jays picking up Bautista's option ... I would throw an incentive laden 1 year deal at him to see what he has left. Curtis Granderson is another.

 

Hosmer is an upside play - and 1B is a buyer's market - but yeah his age could mean a team offers 5 years which would be hard to justify. Giving Travis a full legitimate run at the position is still on the table for me too.

 

I have close to zero confidence in Bautista or Granderson.

 

I would not sign Hosmer to more than 2-3 years, so I think that mean bye-bye.

 

Giving Travis (and Chavis or Brentz) a shot at winning the 1B job next spring or during the season is a fine idea, but it better not be the only plan for fixing 1B/DH next year. Signing another Moreland type doesn't satisfy my desires either.

[sk7326]

I have close to zero confidence in Bautista or Granderson.

 

I would not sign Hosmer to more than 2-3 years, so I think that mean bye-bye.

 

Giving Travis (and Chavis or Brentz) a shot at winning the 1B job next spring or during the season is a fine idea, but it better not be the only plan for fixing 1B/DH next year. Signing another Moreland type doesn't satisfy my desires either.

 

My confidence is low in both - but all it costs is money, and probably not more than 1-year hitch. And at least unlike Moreland, you are actually betting on players who have actually been good before.

[moonslav59]

My confidence is low in both - but all it costs is money, and probably not more than 1-year hitch. And at least unlike Moreland, you are actually betting on players who have actually been good before.

 

I'm not a big Moreland fan, and I do not want him back.

 

I think we can and should do better than Moreland, Granderson and Bautista next year.

 

Plus, I want a 1Bman not another DH. I don't trust HRam at 1B longterm anymore. I barely trust him at DH.

 

I'm not happy with the Duda, Hosmer, Alonso, Santana and Morrison FA 1Bmen choices this winter, but I think I'd rather have any of these guys on a short 1-2 year deal over the three above.

 

Maybe we'll make a trade. Maybe the declining, injury-prone, one-year-left-on-his-contract, Adrian Gonzalez could be gotten for cheap.

The Dodgers might even pay part of his remaining contract. (I'm not sure I want him either, but he is a possible winter option.)

[sk7326]

I'm not a big Moreland fan, and I do not want him back.

 

I think we can and should do better than Moreland, Granderson and Bautista next year.

 

Plus, I want a 1Bman not another DH. I don't trust HRam at 1B longterm anymore. I barely trust him at DH.

 

I'm not happy with the Duda, Hosmer, Alonso, Santana and Morrison FA 1Bmen choices this winter, but I think I'd rather have any of these guys on a short 1-2 year deal over the three above.

 

Maybe we'll make a trade. Maybe the declining, injury-prone, one-year-left-on-his-contract, Adrian Gonzalez could be gotten for cheap.

The Dodgers might even pay part of his remaining contract. (I'm not sure I want him either, but he is a possible winter option.)

 

There are a lot of options. Granderson had been better than Moreland this year too despite hitting .228. Bautista has been dreadful though his line drive stats and such are not really out of line with his career. And while I do not discount 1B defensively - it is still a place to put a bat if you don't have JT Snow out there.

 

I am optimistic about getting one of the Duda/Hosmer group though - it is a buyer's market ...