A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Bellhorn04]

There's really no need to be aghast. We've basically been a middle-of-the-pack offense all year, with typical ups and downs.

[Spudboy]

My question now is are the "under performances" of guys like Betts the norm going forward or are these guys just having an off year?

 

I get that the Sox are in 1st place and probably going to the playoffs.

 

That's just pissah. I think this offense is very flawed and will fall on it's face in the post season.

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie's underperformance is the one thing I'm really surprised about. I still think he's due for a tear, but the clock is ticking.

[cp176]

My question now is are the "under performances" of guys like Betts the norm going forward or are these guys just having an off year?

 

I get that the Sox are in 1st place and probably going to the playoffs.

 

That's just pissah. I think this offense is very flawed and will fall on it's face in the post season.

 

I really like Mookie and players like him but I am thinking that his future play is apt to lie somewhere between what we saw last year and what we are seeing this year. People have talked on occasion here of trying to lock him up for the next decade. I'm guessing that management has to walk a fine line here. If he is willing to take that hometown discount maybe but if he wants the Ferrari contract, maybe he has to play out the string. I like him and the skill set that he brings but I can't help but think that he is just as replaceable as most of the rest of them.

[moonslav59]

I think all three B's are just having a down year.

 

I expect all to do better next year. Maybe they can begin right now.

[Kimmi]

Andrew Benintendi has been named the AL's August Player of the Month. Not bad for a bonehead.

[moonslav59]

Andrew Benintendi has been named the AL's August Player of the Month. Not bad for a bonehead.

 

It's possible to be great and a bonehead.

 

Manny was case in point.

[Kimmi]

It's possible to be great and a bonehead.

 

Manny was case in point.

 

Very true. But that's okay if the great outweighs the boneheadedness.

[cp176]

It's possible to be great and a bonehead.

 

Manny was case in point.

 

Some of this is determined by the perspective of the evaluators. I love the fact that Benintendi plays hard and is hitting. I do think that that makes him special (not Stanton special but special nonetheless). What makes him somewhat less special in my mind is that he does things that really are not fundamentally sound on occasion. i still like him though but when i look at the whole body of work - I see special potential who isn't there yet.

[harmony]

Andrew Benintendi has been named the AL's August Player of the Month. Not bad for a bonehead.

To be precise, Andrew Benintendi was named the American League Rookie of the Month for August:

 

http://m.mlb.com/awards/history-winners/?award_id=ALROM&year=2017

 

Baltimore infielder Manny Machado was the AL Player of the Month for August:

 

http://m.mlb.com/awards/history-winners/?award_id=ALPOM&year=2017

[a700hitter]

I think all three B's are just having a down year.

 

I expect all to do better next year. Maybe they can begin right now.

Mookie is a shadow of what he was last season. Even when he gets the barrel on the ball, it does not seem to be jumping like it did last year. His bling does match his cleats this year. Maybe that is the problem.

[moonslav59]

Brentz with his 31st tonight.

[Station 13]

The Guardians are about to blaze through Houston for the best AL record. They won 11th straight.

[moonslav59]

Some of this is determined by the perspective of the evaluators. I love the fact that Benintendi plays hard and is hitting. I do think that that makes him special (not Stanton special but special nonetheless). What makes him somewhat less special in my mind is that he does things that really are not fundamentally sound on occasion. i still like him though but when i look at the whole body of work - I see special potential who isn't there yet.

 

Well said.

 

He's off to a very good start.

 

Other Killer B career starts:

 

Betts:

.812 (231 PAs) Yr 1

.820 (654 PAs) Yr 2

 

Bogey:

.684 (50 PAs) Yr 1

.660 (594) Yr 2

 

Bradley:

.617 (107 PAs) Yr 1

.531 (423) Yr 2

 

Beni:

.835 (118 PAs) Yr 1

.807 (550) Yr 2 (not counting tonight)

 

 

[Nick]

Why would you pay $25-$30M for a singles hitter? This team needs power. Only game we won vs Yankees was due to 3 home runs accounting for all 4 runs.

 

It's one thing to have 5 or 6 .300 hitters in the lineup to string together base hits. But we don't even have that.

[oldtimer]

Why would you pay $25-$30M for a singles hitter? This team needs power. Only game we won vs Yankees was due to 3 home runs accounting for all 4 runs.

 

It's one thing to have 5 or 6 .300 hitters in the lineup to string together base hits. But we don't even have that.

 

Farrell typified our offense as wasted opportunities last night. We would get runners into scoring position and they would stall. I counted 4 times where we had runners in scoring position and our hitters took called 3rd strikes and there were others but we didn't have guys in scorring position. To me that idicates this grind them out style of hitting, guessing at what you might be thrown and trying for the walk on close pitches doesn't work very well against the kind of pitching we will face in the playoffs. I prefer a guy to take his cuts on close pitches and try to put the ball in play. Generally last night, we just weren't hitting Severino and the Yankees do have a tough BP to call upon. To me, Devers, Nunez and Pedey will get their cuts while often Hanley, Betts and Bogey will not. The others are in between. Is it coaching or is it the players? lets hope we can get it together better against the lesser clubs we face and at least break even with Baltimore. The Yankees still have some tough games ahead so may stumble a bit so a 3 1/2 game lead is a good place to be now but we are vulnerable due to our weak hitting and what looks like tired pitching. Thankfully, Fister has come on to give us some really excellent starts or we could be in more serious straights.

[Spudboy]

why would you pay $25-$30m for a singles hitter? This team needs power. Only game we won vs yankees was due to 3 home runs accounting for all 4 runs.

 

It's one thing to have 5 or 6 .300 hitters in the lineup to string together base hits. But we don't even have that.

 

boom.

[Maxbialystock]

Farrell typified our offense as wasted opportunities last night. We would get runners into scoring position and they would stall. I counted 4 times where we had runners in scoring position and our hitters took called 3rd strikes and there were others but we didn't have guys in scorring position. To me that idicates this grind them out style of hitting, guessing at what you might be thrown and trying for the walk on close pitches doesn't work very well against the kind of pitching we will face in the playoffs. I prefer a guy to take his cuts on close pitches and try to put the ball in play. Generally last night, we just weren't hitting Severino and the Yankees do have a tough BP to call upon. To me, Devers, Nunez and Pedey will get their cuts while often Hanley, Betts and Bogey will not. The others are in between. Is it coaching or is it the players? lets hope we can get it together better against the lesser clubs we face and at least break even with Baltimore. The Yankees still have some tough games ahead so may stumble a bit so a 3 1/2 game lead is a good place to be now but we are vulnerable due to our weak hitting and what looks like tired pitching. Thankfully, Fister has come on to give us some really excellent starts or we could be in more serious straights.

 

Honestly, oldtimer, my strong impression right now is that too many of our hitters aren't sure what they heck they are doing, and that especially applies to last year's two studs, Betts and Bogaerts.

 

My favorite hitting style is probably Pedroia's. He is pretty aggressive but smart enough to take the walk when it is there.

 

You and I have both commented on the importance of the first pitch. Almost all other teams we face will have a few hitters if not most who will swing at a fat first pitch. We almost never do. I could be wrong, but I think this becomes a big problem when other teams pitchers feel confident they can go up in the count from the get go. All that pitcher then has to do is get one more strike to force our hitters to swing at bad pitches or pitches they can't make good contact with.

[S5Dewey]

To reiterate what's been said here before, I believe it's a part of the team strategy to take a lot of pitches in an attempt to get the starter out of the game. That works fine as long as that pitcher doesn't throw a lot of first pitch strikes but when he is throwing strikes it's often necessary to make what's called an "in-game adjustment". That's something hitters are supposed to make but apparently the dugout isn't supposed to. :-(

[Nick]

Carson Smith was expected to be activated by the Red Sox on Monday.

 

It's unclear if he'll be activated now though after being struck in the leg with a line drive during his final rehab outing for Triple-A Pawtucket on Sunday. He left the game immediately but he did walk off the field.

 

Sometime Universe is against you......

[Maxbialystock]

So here we are on Labor Day and on the one talksox thread that is all about "a realistic view at 2017." So what is our realistic view today?

 

Mine is that the Yankees series did more damage than just losing 3 of 4 to the only team that can beat us for the AL East title. It is also a terrible reminder of just how regressive our hitting has become since the 16-4 streak moonslav likes to talk about. Last night was the 10th straight game--with Friday night being a wonderful and most welcome exception--when our hitters have been unable to get to the starters of three different teams (Orioles, Jays, and Yankees). We won all 3 Jays games because their bullpen is horrendous, but we never got to their 3 starters who each gave up just 1 run.

 

At the same time the Yankees were able to get to three of our four starters--ERod (who actually pitched well for 5 innings), Pom (ditto), and Sale (who now has 1 quality start in his last 4 starts). Season to date, the Sox lead the AL in quality starts with 77. Our rotation has been our oasis in the scoring desert of this season, and our bullpen has been pretty good too. They are why we are still 1st in the AL East. They will likely still be good enough to get us there because we have a weak schedule in the remaining 25 games or so. But right now I have my doubts about them in the playoffs. Think of this now concluded Yankees series as a preview of the ALDS. Think the Guardians instead of the Yankees. Remember last year. Scary, isn't it?

 

A sidebar on the manager. If the Sox don't deliver this year, he is gone, and that will be fair. But consider this. The four best teams (most wins) in the AL are the Astros, Guardians, Red Sox, and Yankees in that order. The other three teams have, in the same order, scored 162, 179, and 137 runs more than their opponents in the roughly 136 games played to date by each team. The Sox have scored 81 runs more than their opponents. Those are of course very rough numbers and can no doubt be interpreted many ways, but my take is that they at least suggest the admittedly very slim possibility that Farrell has done more with less than the other three managers.

Edited September 4, 2017 by Maxbialystock

[mvp 78]

No, it just means the offense is kinda sucky and they win more close games.

[Northern Star]

The realistic view is we're not winning the World Series. In fact, making the playoffs at all is an accomplishment given how the team started and how inconsistent it's been.

[oldtimer]

So here we are on Labor Day and on the one talksox thread that is all about "a realistic view at 2017." So what is our realistic view today?

 

Mine is that the Yankees series did more damage than just losing 3 of 4 to the only team that can beat us for the AL East title. It is also a terrible reminder of just how regressive our hitting has become since the 16-4 streak moonslav likes to talk about. Last night was the 10th straight game--with Friday night being a wonderful and most welcome exception--when our hitters have been unable to get to the starters of three different teams (Orioles, Jays, and Yankees). We won all 3 Jays games because their bullpen is horrendous, but we never got to their 3 starters who each gave up just 1 run.

 

At the same time the Yankees were able to get to three of our four starters--ERod (who actually pitched well for 5 innings), Pom (ditto), and Sale (who now has 1 quality start in his last 4 starts). Season to date, the Sox lead the AL in quality starts with 77. Our rotation has been our oasis in the scoring desert of this season, and our bullpen has been pretty good too. They are why we are still 1st in the AL East. They will likely still be good enough to get us there because we have a weak schedule in the remaining 25 games or so. But right now I have my doubts about them in the playoffs. Think of this now concluded Yankees series as a preview of the ALDS. Think the Guardians instead of the Yankees. Remember last year. Scary, isn't it?

 

A sidebar on the manager. If the Sox don't deliver this year, he is gone, and that will be fair. But consider this. The four best teams (most wins) in the AL are the Astros, Guardians, Red Sox, and Yankees in that order. The other three teams have, in the same order, scored 162, 179, and 137 runs more than their opponents in the roughly 136 games played to date by each team. The Sox have scored 81 runs more than their opponents. Those are of course very rough numbers and can no doubt be interpreted many ways, but my take is that they at least suggest the admittedly very slim possibility that Farrell has done more with less than the other three managers.

 

I am with you in this thinking and while I try to offer constructive suggestions at times, it is hard to see us changing in the ensuing 25 games. Farrell really tried to be competitive last night but the players weren't coming through. Sale looked tired, Kelly and Ross were wild, Reed was unlucky and then appeared to get flustered. Our hitting: I had mentioned my growing frustration as they took called third strikes time and again with runners in scoring position. The players should hear that it is not okay to have those kind of plate appearances but I wonder what is happpening in the locker room. Farrell may just go back to Bogaerts again soon and weaken the team in doing so. We need some things to fall into play so as not to lose our lead on the pennant but our chances in the PO's seem worse than that of our top competitors. If we don't get it done we need to look hard at the reasons why and make changes in both coaching and players. We should have some additional flexibility for that with the Luxury Tax Cap reset.

[Kimmi]

To be precise, Andrew Benintendi was named the American League Rookie of the Month for August:

 

http://m.mlb.com/awards/history-winners/?award_id=ALROM&year=2017

 

Baltimore infielder Manny Machado was the AL Player of the Month for August:

 

http://m.mlb.com/awards/history-winners/?award_id=ALPOM&year=2017

 

Thanks for the correction.

[Kimmi]

I think once again too much is being made of one series. Yes, we've had an inconsistent offense all year. Despite that, we have a 3 1/2 game lead or the division, a +81 run differential, and we are one game better than we were after 137 games last year, despite the drop in offense.

 

I do not consider the division as being wrapped up by any means, but I like our chances better than I like the Yankees.

 

The realistic view is that we are very likely headed for the playoffs. Once there, anything can happen.

[Maxbialystock]

I think once again too much is being made of one series. Yes, we've had an inconsistent offense all year. Despite that, we have a 3 1/2 game lead or the division, a +81 run differential, and we are one game better than we were after 137 games last year, despite the drop in offense.

 

I do not consider the division as being wrapped up by any means, but I like our chances better than I like the Yankees.

 

The realistic view is that we are very likely headed for the playoffs. Once there, anything can happen.

 

Way to go, Kimmi !!! That's what I wanted you to say on the game thread last night and said so. The rest of us are wimpy, no good, low down, rotten nattering nabobs of negativism. In my case in comes from long practice.

[moonslav59]

My favorite hitting style is probably Pedroia's. He is pretty aggressive but smart enough to take the walk when it is there.

 

One thing that really bugs me about Pedey is that he almost always takes the first pitch in every AB. He's good enough to get away with it, but others on the team, who try to emulate him, do not have the same skills at hitting while behind in the count.

[moonslav59]

I think once again too much is being made of one series. Yes, we've had an inconsistent offense all year. Despite that, we have a 3 1/2 game lead or the division, a +81 run differential, and we are one game better than we were after 137 games last year, despite the drop in offense.

 

I do not consider the division as being wrapped up by any means, but I like our chances better than I like the Yankees.

 

The realistic view is that we are very likely headed for the playoffs. Once there, anything can happen.

 

You are right, but one thing is different, for me, than earlier in the year. While I still have high hopes for this team's success, I no longer believe our hitting will improve.

 

I expected a strong second half as many of our players would return to their recent year norms, but instead the opposite happened. Most got worse.

 

Had we not added Devers and Nunez and given Vaz more ABs, our second half team OPS would be well below .700.

 

That's sick!

 

Now, that being said, I've always been a firm believer that there are many ways to win a championship without strong hitting.

 

I still am a believer in this team.

[Bellhorn04]

My favorite hitting style is probably Pedroia's. He is pretty aggressive but smart enough to take the walk when it is there.

 

One thing that really bugs me about Pedey is that he almost always takes the first pitch in every AB. He's good enough to get away with it, but others on the team, who try to emulate him, do not have the same skills at hitting while behind in the count.

 

I agree with others who have suggested that taking the first pitch is part of the team's general philosophy of working the count and driving up pitch counts. This year that philosophy doesn't seem to be paying off. I suspect there has been some discussion about getting a little more aggressive lately but now it seems like a lot of our hitters are confused - 'in between'.