A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[moonslav59]

It's sort of the reverse of 2013 when everyone had good years.

 

In a way, but there were a lot of difference between the two years.

 

1) We added a lot of new players for 2013:

 

-Vic had an awesome year.

-Napoli carried us at times.

-Carp had his best career year.

 

2) Several players were in prime or post prime from 2012 to 2013 and 2013 to 2014.

 

3) We didn't see 8 out of eight improve from 2012 to 2013 or decline from 2013 to 2014.

 

Here's a look:

(Players listed by most 2012 PAs)

 

2012-Player-2013-2014

.797 Pedey .787- .712

.663 Aviles>Drew .777> Bogey .660

.807 C Ross> Vic .801> JBJ .531

.812 AGon>Naps .842- .789

.742 Salty .804> AJP .633

1.026 Papi .959-.873

.682 Ellsb .781> Gomes .683/Holt .711

.742 Nava .831- .706

.835 Middy .696- .522/Holt .711

 

From 2012 to 2013, we saw 3 returning players get better (Nava, Salty & Ells) and 3 get worse (Papi, Middy & Pedey)

 

From 2013 to 2014, we saw all 5 returning players do worse than 2013.

 

This year, it is 8 out of 8, and half the players are approaching prime or in early prime years.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

i think that it would seem unusual for sure but really not unbelievable at all. The two that puzzle me the most are Bogaerts and Betts for sure. As for the others not so much.

Leon - last years really?

Ramirez - unpredictable since what 2011 - good when he is healthy - up and down

Bradley - really? what do people expect?

Pedroia - really going to count him - the injury train has started in earnest I'm afraid

 

i guess i just don't see the big mystery . Betts and Bogaerts yes - the rest not really - I'm not surprised at all.

 

i know that you could list now every player from young to Marrero to show me how they have underachieved but remember I'm not letting the facts get in my way. A case can be made for Betts and Bogaerts.

 

I agree, but even when you might expect evenness or decline form those not named Betts & Bogey, the fact that all of those "other" 6 declined in the same year is not something mathematically suggested. Maybe 4 or 5 out of 6, but not all 6 PLUS Betts & Bogey all at once.

 

Add Holt, Young and Beni too.

[moonslav59]

Final Minor League Numbers

 

OPS

.957 Barfield (28 HRs)

.955 Devers (20 HRs + 8 in MLB)

.910 Chavis (31 HRs)

.863 Brentz (31 HRs)

.857 Castillo (15)

.820 Ockimey (14)

 

OPS Against (60+ IP AA & AAA only)

.507 Poyner

.577 Velazquez

.608 Olmos

.641 Walden

.654 Beeks

.677 Johnson

[Kimmi]

Everything's fine here. We're well supplied and the storm is somewhat off-course from my city. We are well supplied and cars are in a safe place. I haven't been on much because my dad was in the ICU there for a while with a heart issue, so things have been s*****.

 

Stay safe, and best wishes for your dad.

 

Also best wishes to all our friends in Florida.

[Kimmi]

I agree, but even when you might expect evenness or decline form those not named Betts & Bogey, the fact that all of those "other" 6 declined in the same year is not something mathematically suggested. Maybe 4 or 5 out of 6, but not all 6 PLUS Betts & Bogey all at once.

 

Add Holt, Young and Beni too.

 

The fact that the underperformances are so widespread really is rather incredible.

[moonslav59]

The fact that the underperformances are so widespread really is rather incredible.

 

That's all I'm saying. 8 out of 8 and 9 of our top 10 is not something to just shrug off. If 6 out of 8 declined, it would be understandable.

 

Then, when you see 4 of the 8 are down by more than .135 and all 8 are by more than .045, it becomes astonishing, to me anyways.

 

[cp176]

I agree, but even when you might expect evenness or decline form those not named Betts & Bogey, the fact that all of those "other" 6 declined in the same year is not something mathematically suggested. Maybe 4 or 5 out of 6, but not all 6 PLUS Betts & Bogey all at once.

 

Add Holt, Young and Beni too.

 

I do agree I just think that it is a semantics thing again for one and then it kind of revolves around what you expected out of these guys this year. I am absolutely sure that you are right about their outcomes this year not being mathematically suggested. But I still do not find the declines by any of these players not named Betts or Bogaerts to be something that might not have been predicted. unusual that they would all experience declines but not otherworldly. if Bogaerts and betts were both performing close to where most of the posters here thought they should, no one would be saying anything about the dips being experienced by anyone else.

[moonslav59]

By Ian Browne / MLB.com |

 

BOSTON -- After throwing his fourth bullpen session in the span of a week on Wednesday, Red Sox left-hander David Price now has his next target in sight for a comeback that is starting to build some momentum.

 

Price is likely to throw a simulated game of two innings and 30 pitches on Saturday at Fenway Park. This will mark the first time Price has faced hitters since his start against the Angels on July 22...If Price starts to build back up on a five-day routine of sim games without setbacks, he could probably get back to the six-to-seven-inning range by the last week of the regular season. There's also a chance the Red Sox could have him pitch in relief to speed up his return, though no discussions have taken place along those lines yet.

[Northern Star]

By Ian Browne / MLB.com |

 

BOSTON -- After throwing his fourth bullpen session in the span of a week on Wednesday, Red Sox left-hander David Price now has his next target in sight for a comeback that is starting to build some momentum.

 

Price is likely to throw a simulated game of two innings and 30 pitches on Saturday at Fenway Park. This will mark the first time Price has faced hitters since his start against the Angels on July 22...If Price starts to build back up on a five-day routine of sim games without setbacks, he could probably get back to the six-to-seven-inning range by the last week of the regular season. There's also a chance the Red Sox could have him pitch in relief to speed up his return, though no discussions have taken place along those lines yet.

 

I am pessimistic that this happens.

[cp176]

That's all I'm saying. 8 out of 8 and 9 of our top 10 is not something to just shrug off. If 6 out of 8 declined, it would be understandable.

 

Then, when you see 4 of the 8 are down by more than .135 and all 8 are by more than .045, it becomes astonishing, to me anyways.

 

 

No one is shrugging anything off my friend. I think that the performances of some of these guys this year probably are much closer to who they might actually be. Not counting Vazquez of course who i happen to think is over performing.

[oldtimer]

I do agree I just think that it is a semantics thing again for one and then it kind of revolves around what you expected out of these guys this year. I am absolutely sure that you are right about their outcomes this year not being mathematically suggested. But I still do not find the declines by any of these players not named Betts or Bogaerts to be something that might not have been predicted. unusual that they would all experience declines but not otherworldly. if Bogaerts and betts were both performing close to where most of the posters here thought they should, no one would be saying anything about the dips being experienced by anyone else.

 

I come from the school of cause and effect. I see the effect, but none of us has named the causes, assuming there are more than one. I think the best thing to do is to name the potential causes and by a process of elimination seach from the most likely to the least likely by replacing the suspected ones. If that requires replacing people, it probably should be put off until next season at this point. The effect is poor hitting across the board so the cause must be something the effects hitting directly. Since other clubs don't show the symptom to the degree the Sox do, I doubt if it something general but more something club specific. I assume DD is logical and has or will arrive at the same conclusion and put in plans to do something about it.

[moonslav59]

No one is shrugging anything off my friend. I think that the performances of some of these guys this year probably are much closer to who they might actually be. Not counting Vazquez of course who i happen to think is over performing.

 

Some- not all.

 

I'm not doubting that some or most of these guys might actually be "closer" to what they look like this year than last. Most likely, they are somewhere in between.

 

However, I still think it is very rare for any team or any given group of 8-10 players to go down hill by this much- all at once.

[cp176]

Some- not all.

 

I'm not doubting that some or most of these guys might actually be "closer" to what they look like this year than last. Most likely, they are somewhere in between.

 

However, I still think it is very rare for any team or any given group of 8-10 players to go down hill by this much- all at once.

 

I'm with you - very rare. i agree. But it still would not surprise me at all if this is who these guys are going forward with a few exceptions. i absolutely expect Betts to be better going forward. I can not say that with any confidence at all about any of the rest of these guys. I want to think that Bogaerts is going to be better than this but I'm just not sure.

[Larry Cook]

His wrist will determine if bogey can bounce back and start hitting this season.

 

For as hot as benintendi was in early to mid august, he is that cold in early september.

 

Mookie continues to mystify me. For all his talent, he just is not performing with the bat like he is capable of.

[moonslav59]

I'm with you - very rare. i agree. But it still would not surprise me at all if this is who these guys are going forward with a few exceptions. i absolutely expect Betts to be better going forward. I can not say that with any confidence at all about any of the rest of these guys. I want to think that Bogaerts is going to be better than this but I'm just not sure.

 

I'd guess Bogey and JBJ will be better over the next 4-5 years combined than their 2017 numbers.

 

It would be ahrd for me to bet that Bogey will end up closer to 2016 than 2017 over the next 4-5 years, but I think JBJ will.

 

I expect Pedey and HRam to continue declining.

 

Leon is probably going to always be between .625 and .700.

 

Vaz may keep going well, but should end up between .700-.750.

 

I think Beni will improve.

 

Devers is tough to call.

 

 

I'm hopeful we pick up a mega power hitter to bat clean-up next year- probably 1B or 3B (Devers to 1B). This might be good enough for next year...

 

1. Bogey or Pedey

2. Betts

3. Beni

4. Power hitter

5. Devers

6. Pedey or Bogey

7. HRam or JBJ

8. JBJ or HRam

9. Vaz/Leon

 

I'd like to see Nunez back and Holt gone, but who knows.

 

[oldtimer]

I'd guess Bogey and JBJ will be better over the next 4-5 years combined than their 2017 numbers.

 

It would be ahrd for me to bet that Bogey will end up closer to 2016 than 2017 over the next 4-5 years, but I think JBJ will.

 

I expect Pedey and HRam to continue declining.

 

Leon is probably going to always be between .625 and .700.

 

Vaz may keep going well, but should end up between .700-.750.

 

I think Beni will improve.

 

Devers is tough to call.

 

 

I'm hopeful we pick up a mega power hitter to bat clean-up next year- probably 1B or 3B (Devers to 1B). This might be good enough for next year...

 

1. Bogey or Pedey

2. Betts

3. Beni

4. Power hitter

5. Devers

6. Pedey or Bogey

7. HRam or JBJ

8. JBJ or HRam

9. Vaz/Leon

 

I'd like to see Nunez back and Holt gone, but who knows.

 

 

I really don't want to see Hanley get enough PA's to qualify for 2019. With his age and injury history having to take his big salary for 2 more years would be a burden that would be hard for the club to carry. If we could be sure Hanley was only going to be with us for one more year, we could afford to take a slightly older guy with a big bat and know we would also be able to get another expensive player the following year.

 

Keeping Nunez should be a priority although it would have to be in the supersub role. With Pedey's age he could easily find a role there or as DH to keep Hanley rested (ahem). Holt has been a good player for us but there are other and better options for us now.

 

Hosmer is one guy to consider although not necessarily optimum. I do think we need to avoid paying big bucks to our DH in future, so we need to pick up a good defensive player with a big bat.

[oldtimer]

To carry the thought further, there are 3 FA's out there who would be of interest. Zack Cosart is 32 this year. Taking him and either trading Bogaerts away or moving him to 3rd would give us a solid defensive SS with a 4.5 WAR this year. He is a right handed bat who hit .301 with a 933 OPS and has 17 HR's. His main issue is his age.

 

Mike Moustakas is a 29 yo left handed hitting 3rd baseman with 36 HR and batting better than .300 with an OPS of 861. I'd have to check his WAR but think it is 2.1

 

Eric Hosmer is a 28 yo left handed ist baseman with a 3.4WAR, 884 OPS with 23 HR and .317 avg.

 

Any of these would cost real money in the FA market but offer a big improvement at the position when compared to who we currently have. Signing one of these along with Nunez makes sense to me.

[mvp 78]

Devers has .8 WAR in less than 40 games. Is Mous enough of an upgrade there.

 

Cozart's 2017 is a big outlier and he has a lengthy injury history.

[Nick]

To carry the thought further, there are 3 FA's out there who would be of interest. Zack Cosart is 32 this year. Taking him and either trading Bogaerts away or moving him to 3rd would give us a solid defensive SS with a 4.5 WAR this year. He is a right handed bat who hit .301 with a 933 OPS and has 17 HR's. His main issue is his age.

 

Mike Moustakas is a 29 yo left handed hitting 3rd baseman with 36 HR and batting better than .300 with an OPS of 861. I'd have to check his WAR but think it is 2.1

 

Eric Hosmer is a 28 yo left handed ist baseman with a 3.4WAR, 884 OPS with 23 HR and .317 avg.

 

Any of these would cost real money in the FA market but offer a big improvement at the position when compared to who we currently have. Signing one of these along with Nunez makes sense to me.

 

Why in the world would you play a singles hitter at 3B? If Xander is not our SS, then trade him. We're already paying him $4.5M wit Arb 2 and 3 coming up.

[Maxbialystock]

Adding a big bat would be great, but getting one is not without its own perils. I'm thinking a DH would be more obtainable and less costly. Great point by Oldtimer on HanRam who I also think is in decline and not the guy we want to hang around at that salary, especially when he is primarily a DH. See Ortiz's salaries when he was probably the best DH in the history of the AL.

 

No way Devers won't play every day somewhere. The outfield is pretty much set barring injuries. Catcher is set. What I like about Nunez is his bat (and speed) and the fact that he is creditable at 3b, SS, and 2b. To me we don't need Holt any more. Better still, we are already seeing how Nunez can get lots of starts backing up those three positions, especially if any of 3b, SS, or 2b falters or his hurt. If Devers goes to 1b, all the more need for Nunez.

[Nick]

Holt sucks.

[Slasher9]

Devers has .8 WAR in less than 40 games. Is Mous enough of an upgrade there.

 

Cozart's 2017 is a big outlier and he has a lengthy injury history.

 

he's 20. i'm willing to give devers an entire season or two to grow into 3b. we let middlebrooks do it for 3 seasons for f***sakes....

[SoxnCycles]

he's 20. i'm willing to give devers an entire season or two to grow into 3b. we let middlebrooks do it for 3 seasons for f***sakes....

 

^ This.

[Spudboy]

he's 20. i'm willing to give devers an entire season or two to grow into 3b. we let middlebrooks do it for 3 seasons for f***sakes....

 

This X 2.

[OH FOY]

Don't know if this was Posted, but Mookie just turned down a close to 100 Million dollar extension, for 5 years. Sean McAdam just wrote it.

[S5Dewey]

Don't know if this was Posted, but Mookie just turned down a close to 100 Million dollar extension, for 5 years. Sean McAdam just wrote it.

 

I guess that makes it all but official. We can kiss that guy goodbye a soon as he enters free agency.

[a700hitter]

I guess that makes it all but official. We can kiss that guy goodbye a soon as he enters free agency.

if he wants a 7-10 contract, they should say goodbye to Mookie. That is too much money for a guy whose game is heavily dependent on speed. He'll be finished as a top exchelon player by 30-31 imo.

[moonslav59]

I really don't want to see Hanley get enough PA's to qualify for 2019. With his age and injury history having to take his big salary for 2 more years would be a burden that would be hard for the club to carry. If we could be sure Hanley was only going to be with us for one more year, we could afford to take a slightly older guy with a big bat and know we would also be able to get another expensive player the following year.

 

Keeping Nunez should be a priority although it would have to be in the supersub role. With Pedey's age he could easily find a role there or as DH to keep Hanley rested (ahem). Holt has been a good player for us but there are other and better options for us now.

 

Hosmer is one guy to consider although not necessarily optimum. I do think we need to avoid paying big bucks to our DH in future, so we need to pick up a good defensive player with a big bat.

 

Who?

 

Those don't come easy, and if he doesn't play 1B, we are displacing a current player. Which player would that be?

 

I feel we need a bigger bat than Hosmer, a more predictable bat than Duda or Morrison and one that can turn this offense around.

 

Free agents this year, are not that great. Maybe only JD Martinez and Moustakas might fit that need. Both would involve moving a player or would have to play DH- neither fill our 1B need. Trading for a 1Bman (Votto?) would be costly in many ways.

 

I don't see an easy winter fix.

[Slasher9]

Don't know if this was Posted, but Mookie just turned down a close to 100 Million dollar extension, for 5 years. Sean McAdam just wrote it.

 

he should turn that down. thats the equivalent to the lester offer.

[Slasher9]

FTR i say a big bat can suck it. we are about to win the ALE based on pitching.

pitching, pitching, pitching.

pitching.