Red Sox Trade Deadline 2017 Thread

[moonslav59]

Similar production premium positions and Bradley is 2.5 years older

 

He'll likely cost less as well. He also has one more year of team control, so the re-sign period difference might play into who we can afford to keep at that moment.

 

I'm sure the longer view is what management will look at, and Bogey's age is a big factor in his favor, but I like JBj better.

 

I've never been a fan of Bogey's SS defense. He's not improved over the last 2-3 years. To me, SS defense is vital. I love CF defense,

too and JBJ is the god of defense.

[Emp9]

Sox rumored to be looking at Addison Reed (NYM). That'd be a nice pickup.

[moonslav59]

Priority?

 

... Bradley - He's been good! But his production is peaks and valleys - always is. Excellent defender. But he is the most dispensible of the 4 Bs and if you can make a needle moving deal, then yeah you move him and figure it out.

 

Since August 2015, JBJ has been as consistent or better than most MLB players. His production has been very good, and he's GG caliber on defense. He had a tough start to his career. Can we let him off the hook yet for that?

 

It's been almost 2 full seasons since that tough stretch.

 

JBJ's OPS by half-seasons

 

2nd 2015: .891

1st 2016: .926

2nd 2016: .728

1st 2017: .853

 

If .728 is the "valley", I'll take it.

 

By Month

8/15: 1.163

9/15: .739

4/16: .807

5/16: 1.175

6/16: .805

7/16: .839

8/16: .651

9/16: .731

4/17 .596

5/17 .808

6/17: 1.009

 

Two months below .730 (both below .652) is not really a sign of too much inconsistency. Other hitters on our team have more bad months than this. Out of the last 11 months:

 

2 months .595-.635

2 months .730-.740

4 months .800-.840

3 months 1.000-1.200

 

I love these numbers.

 

2015-2017

 

J.B.Jr. (1204) OBP .346 / SLG .483 (.829 OPS) wRC+ 117/wOBA .352

 

UZR/150

 

J.B.Jr. +4.1 CF (+55.1 LF & +20.7 RF)

 

[sk7326]

Bradley is a good player. The team has an ample replacement - if a good deal showed up.

[moonslav59]

We can go over the luxury limit by $39M without having any affect on our draft picks, so I think it might not be as hard as it looks to keep all 4 B's and Sale.

 

It would really help, if we could extend one soon, so the AVV stays lower than if we wait to free agency (as the "arb years" are included in the whole contract).

[mvp 78]

Nelson Cruz remains under team control through the 2018 season.

 

Whoops, I was looking at the 18-19 offseason.

[Kimmi]

I also think he would be a good get to shore up the BP. The question is what would it take to bring him in?

 

I think we need to look not only at winning the AL East when considering who we trade for as the probability of that happening may be in the mid 40 percentile with the Yankees and Rays in the high 20s and Baltimore and Toronto dropping out as they reset for next year.

 

The other consideration is do we have the horses or are we likely to get enough to be competitive with the elite teams. Houston, Dodgers, Nationals. If not, lets not sell off our future to pick up any rental player this year. My thinking is to hang on to Devers, Groome and Lin as part of the future of the franchise. I don't think a Holt, Marerro, Moreland, Rameriz and perhaps Leon and young will be in our future plans, so any trade that brings us real quality for them whether now or in the time frame of stocking for next year makes sense.

 

I'm going to leave it in the hands of Dombrowski (Do I have a choice? LOL) to do what he thinks is best for the team. He may be exploring trades that haven't even crossed our minds. I am confident that he will add a late inning reliever. I am also fairly confident that Devers and Groome are not going anywhere.

[mvp 78]

Holliday/Logan Morrison/Mark Reynolds as DH replacement for Hanley?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html

[Kimmi]

I guess we could try to walk in the winning run every game, but I have my doubts on that being a sound strategy. It worked this past weekend. whooopi!!!!

 

OBP is still king, however, when it comes to scoring runs.

[BstHcpr]

Holliday/Logan Morrison/Mark Reynolds as DH replacement for Hanley?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html

 

Red Sox already on hook for $140 million before arbitration raises to Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, etc.

[Bellhorn04]

OBP is still king, however, when it comes to scoring runs.

 

In the AL the Sox are 3rd in OBP, 11th in SLG and 7th in runs per game. So it seems like the SLG is roughly as much a drag on scoring as OBP is a boost.

[moonslav59]

OBP is still king, however, when it comes to scoring runs.

 

OPS is slightly better, although it's not a true stat and it is flawed. (Per Smart Baseball- I just read it.)

[Emp9]

OBP is still king, however, when it comes to scoring runs.

 

OBP alone isn't helping our AIS problem tho

[jad]

Maybe Jack Clark is still available.

[sk7326]

OPS is slightly better, although it's not a true stat and it is flawed. (Per Smart Baseball- I just read it.)

 

Different denominators and assign equal weight to two things which are not equal

 

But slugging is important - and it's not like there is not a significant correlation between the two. Indeed the splits between the two like Boston's - is legitimately unusual.

[Emp9]

AIS= Asses-in-Seats. Red Sox viewership is down 20% this season. For Boston AIS is usually king more times than not. I expect some moves to be made really soon.

[Kimmi]

OPS is slightly better, although it's not a true stat and it is flawed. (Per Smart Baseball- I just read it.)

 

Yes, OPS is better, but it's also not a 'single' stat, it's the combination of two things.

 

In terms of correlation to runs scored, OBP > SLG. Getting on base, ie avoiding outs, is still the single biggest factor in scoring runs.

[Kimmi]

AIS= Asses-in-Seats. Red Sox viewership is down 20% this season. For Boston AIS is usually king more times than not. I expect some moves to be made really soon.

 

I'm glad you clarified that.

 

The Sox are still in first place and likely headed to the playoffs. I don't get the lack of interest in the team.

[Nick]

I'm glad you clarified that.

 

The Sox are still in first place and likely headed to the playoffs. I don't get the lack of interest in the team.

 

Our OFFENSE sucks. We make all star pitchers out of Masterson's of the world. I doubt anyone right now is lining up to pay Betts $30M.

 

Out of curiosity, what can we get for Betts in a trade? Give me a name. Would the Angels trade Trout heads up?

Edited July 18, 2017 by Nick

[BstHcpr]

Our OFFENSE sucks. We make all star pitchers out of Masterson's of the world. I doubt anyone right now is lining up to pay Betts $30M.

 

Out of curiosity, what can we get for Betts in a trade? Give me a name. Would the Angels trade Trout heads up?

 

Stop being an idiot.

 

Trout, Correra, and Bryant might be the only three players that the Sox couldn't get for Betts.

Edited July 18, 2017 by BstHcpr

[Bellhorn04]

Out of curiosity, what can we get for Betts in a trade? Give me a name. Would the Angels trade Trout heads up?

 

You need to calm down a little Nick.

[mvp 78]

AIS= Asses-in-Seats. Red Sox viewership is down 20% this season. For Boston AIS is usually king more times than not. I expect some moves to be made really soon.

 

Not surprising since the fan favorite retired. Last year, Sox were up 33% from 2015 (probably due to Oritz retirement and Sox staying in contention).

[MADSTORK]

Our OFFENSE sucks. We make all star pitchers out of Masterson's of the world. I doubt anyone right now is lining up to pay Betts $30M.

 

Out of curiosity, what can we get for Betts in a trade? Give me a name. Would the Angels trade Trout heads up?

 

 

Would you trade Machado since he is hitting .238 with a .300 obpct?

 

The Mike Trout's of the League are once in a lifetime players.. The rest are going to be inconsistent.

[dgalehouse]

Our OFFENSE sucks. We make all star pitchers out of Masterson's of the world. I doubt anyone right now is lining up to pay Betts $30M.

 

Out of curiosity, what can we get for Betts in a trade? Give me a name. Would the Angels trade Trout heads up?

 

Nick , You're talking like a mamaluke. Stop it.

[S5Dewey]

{OPS uses}Different denominators and assign equal weight to two things which are not equal

 

 

Then OPS is like WAR.

[sk7326]

Then OPS is like WAR.

 

No - OPS is mathematically incorrect (perfect SLG is 4.000, perfect OBP is 1.000 ... OBP is much more significant for run creation) ... WAR is normalized. WAR's issue (and there are in reality 32 formulae for WAR, the 2 publicly available and whatever the teams do internally) comes with inputs.

 

WAR sums everything measurable a player does on the field - that is pretty straightforward. Complex in calculation, intuitively pretty simple. Pitcher WAR is a little more complicated than that.

[Bellhorn04]

OPS is one of the craziest stats ever coined, just taking two other stats and mashing them together. It produces some bizarre results - a .600 OPS stinks. But it can still be useful as long as you realize what you're looking at. The same pretty much holds true with WAR.

[a700hitter]

OBP is still king, however, when it comes to scoring runs.

I think that you are not keeping with the times. The Home Run is king today and the big HR teams are the teams putting up the runs.

[Spudboy]

I think that you are not keeping with the times. The Home Run is king today and the big HR teams are the teams putting up the runs.

 

This team had both.

[Hugh2]

Seems like it would be a good exercise to see if there is a stronger correlation between OBP and runs or SLG and runs. I really don't know, but in terms of ratings I think the HR is king.

 

Chicks dig the long ball.