Should Jackie Bradley Jr be traded?

[mvp 78]

If one compares Lowell's offensive stats with JBJ's offensive stats Lowell will always come out ahead. JBJ's offense will never compare with Lowell's. OTHO Lowell has an average career dWAR of 0.2 while JBJ's average dWAR is 1.5. I'm not trying to say that JBJ is a better player, only that there's more to baseball than offensive stats.

 

All of this doesn't alter the fact that the trade was actually Hanley and Anibel Sanchez for Josh Beckett. Lowell (and a few other guys) were throw-ins and Beckett turned out to be by far the best of the throw-ins.

 

Player 1 5 year fWAR: 7.1

 

Player 2 5 year fWAR: 14.2

 

Which player is more likely to be valuable in year 6?

[notin]

Just because you're not penciling in Duran to start in 2022 doesn't mean you trade him, but you could? sure.

 

With Duran, we are rapidly approaching the transition from prospect to suspect. Either give him a legitimate chance to see if he can play, or trade him to someone rose who will for a missing piece….

[mvp 78]

With Duran, we are rapidly approaching the transition from prospect to suspect. Either give him a legitimate chance to see if he can play, or trade him to someone rose who will for a missing piece….

 

I think the Sox need to give him a legitimate shot to earn a full time role in 2022. I think his trade value has taken a little hit and they may do better to just roll the dice and hold onto him for another year. Maybe he can work with JBJ in ST and get a clue about playing OF.

[notin]

I think the Sox need to give him a legitimate shot to earn a full time role in 2022. I think his trade value has taken a little hit and they may do better to just roll the dice and hold onto him for another year. Maybe he can work with JBJ in ST and get a clue about playing OF.

 

 

As the roster stands now, he might be the starting LF. At least again RHP…

[mvp 78]

As the roster stands now, he might be the starting LF. At least again RHP…

 

If they don't add anyone:

 

VS LHP

2B Arroyo

RF Verdugo

CF Kiké

LF JD???

DH Plawecki???

 

Seems like they are missing a RHB in the OF.

 

VS RHP

2B Kiké

RF Verdugo

CF JBJ

LF Duran

DH JD

[mvp 78]

JBJ's split isn't that great, mainly because he's just not a very good hitter. Maybe he gets more AB's vs LHP?

 

Duran had a reverse split in AAA vs LHP, but both numbers were 868+. I take those with a grain of salt though. He had a 4 WRC+ against LHP in MLB. SSS

 

The OF is as confusing to me today as it was last March.

[Hugh2]

"Being tied to a FA" is more due to agents across the league trying to negotiate better contracts for their guys. Just because they are in conversations doesn't mean they are remotely close to signing those guys. There's just no chance.

 

There's never no chance, especially when over the last two decades the Sox have been a top 3 spending team. Everything is cyclical with the Sox, I remember one year they said they would never sign long term players again and they let Lester walk and didn't even bother to make a run at Max Scherzer, and then the very next year they go out and throw hundreds of millions of dollars at David Price.

 

There is a long-term need up the middle for the Sox, especially if Bogaerts walks and you will never have a better free-agent class up the middle than we have this year. I will not be surprised if they end up signing one of those guys.

[Hugh2]

This is what's referred to in my home as a "first world problem" - having so much talent that the FO can't afford to pay them all.

 

A certain female poster here has made a believer out of me when she says that long term contracts may be beneficial to the team in the short run but committing to a player for 8-10 years is folly. Not only is the player going to age past their prime, but younger players are going to be reaching their prime at a much lower cost.

 

Of course this is all a part of the salary structure which the player's union is trying to rectify now by getting the younger elite players more money sooner in their careers. If the players union is successful teams may be able to sign elite talent at age 20 to a 10 year contract without having a 34 year old albatross around their necks.

 

This is why I actually love opt outs. The narrative is how player-friendly opt-outs are but I disagree. If a guy is opting out it's likely because he gave you 2-3 years of great production in his prime and there's more tail end than front end on his contract that you just got yourself out of.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There's never no chance, especially when over the last two decades the Sox have been a top 3 spending team. Everything is cyclical with the Sox, I remember one year they said they would never sign long term players again and they let Lester walk and didn't even bother to make a run at Max Scherzer, and then the very next year they go out and throw hundreds of millions of dollars at David Price.

 

There is a long-term need up the middle for the Sox, especially if Bogaerts walks and you will never have a better free-agent class up the middle than we have this year. I will not be surprised if they end up signing one of those guys.

 

I expect it, and predicted when Betts was traded that the Sox would sign someone not as good for more money, sooner rather than later. But I'll still be surprised and at this point shocked if it ever happens when Bloom is in charge.

[Hugh2]

I expect it, and predicted when Betts was traded that the Sox would sign someone not as good for more money, sooner rather than later. But I'll still be surprised and at this point shocked if it ever happens when Bloom is in charge.

 

But why? to be fair, we've never seen what Bloom will do with a full checkbook, never. This is realistically year 1.

 

ADD: I'm not expecting him to turn Boston into L.A. I'm just saying I won't be shocked if he signs a big-time contract this offseason.

[Hugh2]

If they don't add anyone:

 

Seems like they are missing a RHB in the OF.

 

 

Seiya Suzuki.

[mvp 78]

Seiya Suzuki.

 

Signs are pointing that way. However, there is so much talk about it that I bet it doesn't happen. Bloom hasn't really signed anyone that we've expected since he's come onboard.

[mvp 78]

There's never no chance, especially when over the last two decades the Sox have been a top 3 spending team. Everything is cyclical with the Sox, I remember one year they said they would never sign long term players again and they let Lester walk and didn't even bother to make a run at Max Scherzer, and then the very next year they go out and throw hundreds of millions of dollars at David Price.

 

There is a long-term need up the middle for the Sox, especially if Bogaerts walks and you will never have a better free-agent class up the middle than we have this year. I will not be surprised if they end up signing one of those guys.

 

I just think they'd be better off trying to extend Bogey and Raffy.

[mvp 78]

But why? to be fair, we've never seen what Bloom will do with a full checkbook, never. This is realistically year 1.

 

ADD: I'm not expecting him to turn Boston into L.A. I'm just saying I won't be shocked if he signs a big-time contract this offseason.

 

Why was 2021 not year 1? They already hit reset.

[Hugh2]

I just think they'd be better off trying to extend Bogey and Raffy.

 

As fans, we always have a biased opinion. Nothing wrong with that, but someone like Bloom may very well feel he's better off with Story at SS for the next several years. We just don't know.

[Old Red]

But why? to be fair, we've never seen what Bloom will do with a full checkbook, never. This is realistically year 1.

 

ADD: I'm not expecting him to turn Boston into L.A. I'm just saying I won't be shocked if he signs a big-time contract this offseason.

 

I don’t think Bloom was brought here to be a big spender with a full checkbook. They didn’t sign Mookie even though they supposedly offered him $300M, but they knew he wasn’t gong to take it. If they don’t sign their own like Boogie and Raffy I don’t see them spending big for someone from the outside.

[Hugh2]

Why was 2021 not year 1? They already hit reset.

 

Why blow your load when you have zero farm system and the 4th worse record in all of baseball? The FA class was pretty weak and the Sox didn't have the assets to trade. Just like a team can peak so too can an organization. I'm just saying to don't discount the possibility. The Sox have a long history of changing direction every couple years. Everytime they say they won't do a thing that other people do it's only a year or two before they do. Just like my Lester to Price example.

[Hugh2]

I don’t think Bloom was brought here to be a big spender with a full checkbook. They didn’t sign Mookie even though they supposedly offered him $300M, but they knew he wasn’t gong to take it. If they don’t sign their own like Boogie and Raffy I don’t see them spending big for someone from the outside.

 

The Red Sox have been the 3rd HIGHEST spending team the past couple DECADES. What makes you think that's going to change? The Sox go through these cycles where they reduce spending for a year or two to get things in check but they always put themselves right back at the top. Why do we think things are going to be any different now??????? WHy?

[Old Red]

The Red Sox have been the 3rd HIGHEST spending team the past couple DECADES. What makes you think that's going to change? The Sox go through these cycles where they reduce spending for a year or two to get things in check but they always put themselves right back at the top. Why do we think things are going to be any different now??????? WHy?

 

I keep hearing about how high their payroll is, and that’s true, but most of that was built up before last year. They didn’t spend big last year, and right now indications suggest they won’t this year either. If they are going back to spending again I think that will come next year after big money comes off the books. Bogey, and Raffy should come first.

[moonslav59]

Player 1 5 year fWAR: 7.1

 

Player 2 5 year fWAR: 14.2

 

Which player is more likely to be valuable in year 6?

 

Depends on the ages and recent 2-3 year trends. IMO

[moonslav59]

Why was 2021 not year 1? They already hit reset.

 

Henry has a long history of going 2 and even 3 years staying under the tax line between going over it.

 

Why is this any different?

[moonslav59]

Why blow your load when you have zero farm system and the 4th worse record in all of baseball? The FA class was pretty weak and the Sox didn't have the assets to trade. Just like a team can peak so too can an organization. I'm just saying to don't discount the possibility. The Sox have a long history of changing direction every couple years. Everytime they say they won't do a thing that other people do it's only a year or two before they do. Just like my Lester to Price example.

 

Well said.

 

Maybe doing so well in 2021 made it easier to put off spending for another year.

[notin]

I keep hearing about how high their payroll is, and that’s true, but most of that was built up before last year. They didn’t spend big last year, and right now indications suggest they won’t this year either. If they are going back to spending again I think that will come next year after big money comes off the books. Bogey, and Raffy should come first.

 

Well, this year it might be related to the unknown parameters of the new CBA. If you look at the teams that spent heavily so far - Detroit, Texas, etc. - these are teams that don’t really have any tax limit fears. Most of the teams that annually hover around or over the limit, like the Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, etc. have been relatively quiet so far. Henry didn’t cut their spending, too…

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom has done some spending this offseason, just not any that stirred a lot of excitement. Paxton, Wacha and Hill have a total AAV of about $25 mill. Plus the exercise of Vaz's option.

[dgalehouse]

I would think any GM is going to spend as much as the owner is willing to shell out. It would be foolish not to.

[moonslav59]

Bloom has done some spending this offseason, just not any that stirred a lot of excitement. Paxton, Wacha and Hill have a total AAV of about $25 mill. Plus the exercise of Vaz's option.

 

Bloom spent $40M last winter, almost all on 1 year deals, but he had about 10 slots to fill. That was more than most GMs spent on 2021 salaries.

 

If he spends $40M on 4-6 slots, this winter, one would think we get better production.

Edited December 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Why blow your load when you have zero farm system and the 4th worse record in all of baseball? The FA class was pretty weak and the Sox didn't have the assets to trade. Just like a team can peak so too can an organization. I'm just saying to don't discount the possibility. The Sox have a long history of changing direction every couple years. Everytime they say they won't do a thing that other people do it's only a year or two before they do. Just like my Lester to Price example.

 

I'm just not sure that this offseason and this organization are materially different than last year. I don't really see the Sox as needing to splurge on a SS right now. To me, the signings of Paxton, Hill and Wacha show that they want to spend, but aren't going to go overboard. If they wanted to, they could have gone big on a starting pitcher. They didn't. I think that will be the same when they try to plug other holes.

[mvp 78]

 

Henry has a long history of going 2 and even 3 years staying under the tax line between going over it.

 

Why is this any different?

 

So again, why is this year supposed to be year 1? There are no indications they are going over the luxury tax calc this year.

[mvp 78]

Bloom has done some spending this offseason, just not any that stirred a lot of excitement. Paxton, Wacha and Hill have a total AAV of about $25 mill. Plus the exercise of Vaz's option.

 

And the added payroll cost of JBJ.

[moonslav59]

So again, why is this year supposed to be year 1? There are no indications they are going over the luxury tax calc this year.

 

I never said it would be. I hoped it would.

 

I’m thinking had we missed the playoffs it might have been a bigger spending winter.

 

I think the trends show we will go over again, at some point. We’ve never gone 4 years under while Henry has been here, but I guess maybe we could.