Sox hitting??

[moonslav59]

What's the big deal with 12 pitchers? Don't rosters expand to 40 in a couple of weeks?

 

12 pitchers is probably the norm not 13.

 

13 means you have 3 guys on the bench and one is Leon (or Vaz).

 

You're right, though. Why trade Hembree when rosters expand in 9 days?

 

My bad.

[Kimmi]

We will continue to disagree on that. Every sample size is worth something. It's a matter of how it's interpreted.

 

Every sample is worth something, and every sample is inputted into updated projections. Recent small samples of a hot or a cold streak are not a good indicator of what a player will do in the next game.

[Kimmi]

But even good hitters go through slumps. I kinda agree with you in theory, but if a guy is belting the hide off the ball, you don't just bench him and go with Cool Hand Luke who can't currently hit the side of a barn. In my opinion it hurts your chances of winning and it sends a bad message.

 

I think you have a valid point about the message it might send, but in terms normal slumps and hot streaks, the best bet is still to play the best hitters.

[Kimmi]

I watch the hitting pretty closely during each game and though we only got 5 hits last night there weren't wholesale problems.

 

Nunez has cooled off a little but he is one of our few hitters who will offer at a first pitch over the plate. His plate discipline has gotten worse as he is swinging at high fast balls out of the zone. That said, last night he hit the ball hard to the third baseman and went to right pretty hard. Just bad luck he didn't get on.

 

Betts does tend to take first pitch strike most of the times and does tend to have more swing and miss or swing and foul off than in the past, but last night his pllate discipline was very good and he walked three times and scored 3 I think. he did a good job.

 

Beni hits best when he goes to center or pulls the ball. When he hits to left, he often pops the ball up. He did a good job last night as well.

 

Hanley is a low average hitter these days but he can lose a mistake and is dangerous because of it. His two run homer gave us the lead.

 

Devers has shown the ability to shrug off a poor at bat and come back and put up a good swing. Last night he didn't but the kid can hit.

 

Bogie is still mired in a slump. He did work a couple of walks so that was an improvement, but he takes the first strike down the middle time after time and gets in the hole. He tends to have serious issues seeing sliders down low and away. His swing mechanics are not very good either. I hope he can recover some of his mojo this year but no signs to date. They show him having discussions with the hitting coach after most AB's.

 

Holt was in because Moreland couldn't go. Holt is an experienced hitter but really is below average for most major leaguers in contact and power. We probably have versatile players in the minors who could do as well or better.

 

Vaz is hitting well for a catcher and is fairly hot right now. He makes contact and hits the ball hard. He doesn't have much speed but if he wasn't catching he would be a good pinch hitter. JF is hesitant to use him when Leon catches in case Leon gets injured.

 

JBJ seems too have trouble recognizing some pitches but has certainly done enough and has hit the ball well enough to even be moved down a couple of slots. Bogie could occupy th e 9th slot. We don't have alternatives on the current roster to allow him to sit.

 

All in all, our weak spots are Holt and Bogie. Hope Pedey will come back soon and perhaps we can bring up another versatile infielder.

 

Some good insight, as always.

 

Pedey made some good progress yesterday, so hopefully we'll see him soon. I really think Bogaerts' hand is still bothering him and he could use a few days off.

 

I read that Swihart is still playing some games at catcher, though not exclusively at that position, so he might be a nice versatile piece for us when rosters expand. That will allow Farrell a 3rd catching option in case of emergencies as well as a good pinch hitting option.

[oldtimer]

Some good insight, as always.

 

Pedey made some good progress yesterday, so hopefully we'll see him soon. I really think Bogaerts' hand is still bothering him and he could use a few days off.

 

I read that Swihart is still playing some games at catcher, though not exclusively at that position, so he might be a nice versatile piece for us when rosters expand. That will allow Farrell a 3rd catching option in case of emergencies as well as a good pinch hitting option.

 

The question about Swihart is whether his 250 batting average and 550 OPS at Pawtucket in 209 plate appearances is good enough to bring him up. We don't need a catcher and both Travis and lin could fill a needed position better. I really hope that Blake gets back to what he was doing but so far his minor league play hasn't impressed.

[a700hitter]

The question about Swihart is whether his 250 batting average and 550 OPS at Pawtucket in 209 plate appearances is good enough to bring him up. We don't need a catcher and both Travis and lin could fill a needed position better. I really hope that Blake gets back to what he was doing but so far his minor league play hasn't impressed.

I think Swihart is under the Mendoza line at around .190.

[mvp 78]

I think Swihart is under the Mendoza line at around .190.

 

The only reason they'd promote Swihart instead of Butler would be because of the 40 man roster implications.

[mvp 78]

Some good insight, as always.

 

Pedey made some good progress yesterday, so hopefully we'll see him soon. I really think Bogaerts' hand is still bothering him and he could use a few days off.

 

I read that Swihart is still playing some games at catcher, though not exclusively at that position, so he might be a nice versatile piece for us when rosters expand. That will allow Farrell a 3rd catching option in case of emergencies as well as a good pinch hitting option.

 

The reason he's only playing catcher some games is because his ankle is still messed up. He's physically unable to play C in back to back games at the moment. He is practicing at 1B and 3B. Not sure he can help at all this year though.

[Spudboy]

I watch the hitting pretty closely during each game and though we only got 5 hits last night there weren't wholesale problems.

 

Nunez has cooled off a little but he is one of our few hitters who will offer at a first pitch over the plate. His plate discipline has gotten worse as he is swinging at high fast balls out of the zone. That said, last night he hit the ball hard to the third baseman and went to right pretty hard. Just bad luck he didn't get on.

 

Betts does tend to take first pitch strike most of the times and does tend to have more swing and miss or swing and foul off than in the past, but last night his pllate discipline was very good and he walked three times and scored 3 I think. he did a good job.

 

Beni hits best when he goes to center or pulls the ball. When he hits to left, he often pops the ball up. He did a good job last night as well.

 

Hanley is a low average hitter these days but he can lose a mistake and is dangerous because of it. His two run homer gave us the lead.

 

Devers has shown the ability to shrug off a poor at bat and come back and put up a good swing. Last night he didn't but the kid can hit.

 

Bogie is still mired in a slump. He did work a couple of walks so that was an improvement, but he takes the first strike down the middle time after time and gets in the hole. He tends to have serious issues seeing sliders down low and away. His swing mechanics are not very good either. I hope he can recover some of his mojo this year but no signs to date. They show him having discussions with the hitting coach after most AB's.

 

Holt was in because Moreland couldn't go. Holt is an experienced hitter but really is below average for most major leaguers in contact and power. We probably have versatile players in the minors who could do as well or better.

 

Vaz is hitting well for a catcher and is fairly hot right now. He makes contact and hits the ball hard. He doesn't have much speed but if he wasn't catching he would be a good pinch hitter. JF is hesitant to use him when Leon catches in case Leon gets injured.

 

JBJ seems too have trouble recognizing some pitches but has certainly done enough and has hit the ball well enough to even be moved down a couple of slots. Bogie could occupy th e 9th slot. We don't have alternatives on the current roster to allow him to sit.

 

All in all, our weak spots are Holt and Bogie. Hope Pedey will come back soon and perhaps we can bring up another versatile infielder.

 

I really like your posts.

[Spudboy]

Blake Swihart is playing first base now.

 

He has had an awful year with injury yet his talent is hard to ignore for those who bother to look.

[moonslav59]

The only reason they'd promote Swihart instead of Butler would be because of the 40 man roster implications.

 

Good point, but there are so many players who will obviously not be on the 40 man roster next year that we can DFA before Sept 1st.

 

DFA Selsky and add Brentz.

 

DFA Owens or Kyle Martin and add Butler or Barfield.

 

Maybe DFA Boyer and add Beeks. We'll need to protect Beeks in rule 5 anyways.

[S5Dewey]

Every sample is worth something, and every sample is inputted into updated projections. Recent small samples of a hot or a cold streak are not a good indicator of what a player will do in the next game.

 

You will continue to devalue the human element of baseball in favor of statistics. I will continue to believe that the human element has more to do with what a player will do in his next game or AB than statistics do.

 

I'm good with that.

[SoxnCycles]

You will continue to devalue the human element of baseball in favor of statistics. I will continue to believe that the human element has more to do with what a player will do in his next game or AB than statistics do.

 

I'm good with that.

 

Can you provide an example of this, because I can't find one.

[S5Dewey]

Can you provide an example of this, because I can't find one.

 

Specifically? Not sure, but the general tone is that in spite of the lip service being given to the human element of the game the underlying attitude is that given a choice between the human element and the statistics certain posters will go with the statistics because the human element isn't statistically quantifiable.

 

I'm good with that. I believe that everyone is entitled to their own opinion. All ask for is respect for mine without it being pointed out I'm allegedly "wrong".

[Bellhorn04]

You will continue to devalue the human element of baseball in favor of statistics. I will continue to believe that the human element has more to do with what a player will do in his next game or AB than statistics do.

 

Do you have any specific examples of this principle in action though?

[moonslav59]

Sox leaders in OPS (200+ PAs)

.804 Beni

.791 Nunez (2 teams combined)

.784 Pedey

.784 Betts

.777 HRam

.775 JBJ

.756 Moreland

.741 Bogey

.738 Young

.730 Vaz

.682 Leon

 

Interesting to note that Betts is in danger of falling to 6th place on his own team! He's only .009 ahead of JBJ and .008 ahead of HRam.

 

6th out of 11 players!

 

WOW!

 

[S5Dewey]

Do you have any specific examples of this principle in action though?

 

Asked and answered.

 

There has been a long-going discussion here about the value of statistics vs. the value of the human element. There are currently 142 pages in this thread. I'm not going back through pages and pages of previous posts to try to prove what many posters here already know.

 

Either we respect other poster's opinions or we don't. Pretty simple stuff.

[Maxbialystock]

Asked and answered.

 

There has been a long-going discussion here about the value of statistics vs. the value of the human element. There are currently 142 pages in this thread. I'm not going back through pages and pages of previous posts to try to prove what many posters here already know.

 

Either we respect other poster's opinions or we don't. Pretty simple stuff.

 

Well said. And I myself am occasionally guilty of hammering and hammering a point beyond what is needed. Sometimes we simply need to agree to respectfully disagree.

[SoxnCycles]

Specifically? Not sure, but the general tone is that in spite of the lip service being given to the human element of the game the underlying attitude is that given a choice between the human element and the statistics certain posters will go with the statistics because the human element isn't statistically quantifiable.

 

I'm good with that. I believe that everyone is entitled to their own opinion. All ask for is respect for mine without it being pointed out I'm allegedly "wrong".

 

Frankly, I don't understand why there has to be a choice. Kimmi and others that understand and use stats to support an argument have said numerous time that the human element plays a part in performance and that it's not always quantifiable.

 

If having people bow down before your extensive knowledge of baseball simply because you've been watching it for 50 years is important to you, perhaps you're in the wrong place.

I've been watching since the sixties and I come to forums like this because I'm usually still able to learn something I didn't know.

 

You want respect and admiration, get a dog.

[S5Dewey]

Frankly, I don't understand why there has to be a choice. Kimmi and others that understand and use stats to support an argument have said numerous time that the human element plays a part in performance and that it's not always quantifiable.

 

If having people bow down before your extensive knowledge of baseball simply because you've been watching it for 50 years is important to you, perhaps you're in the wrong place.

I've been watching since the sixties and I come to forums like this because I'm usually still able to learn something I didn't know.

 

You want respect and admiration, get a dog.

 

Hmmm... I ask that everyone's opinion be respected and I get this crap in return??

 

As I've said before, I believe there's room for both the statistics and the human element in this game and I'm willing to accept the opinions of the "stat geeks" for what they are.

 

Here's a newsflash. Neither approach is entirely right and frankly I'm tired of the snooty and condescending posts of "Statistics don't bear that out" when posters say something that has been proven through years of experience. I've taken a new approach. When I now see things that statistics don't bear our (like Price not winning in his last outing and Fister pitching the gem he did last night) I don't even mention it. It's called "respect". Try it sometime.

 

This is a big sandbox and there's room for everyone, as long as they can respect others. If you can't, maybe you're the one who's in the wrong place.

[Bellhorn04]

Asked and answered.

 

There has been a long-going discussion here about the value of statistics vs. the value of the human element. There are currently 142 pages in this thread. I'm not going back through pages and pages of previous posts to try to prove what many posters here already know.

 

Either we respect other poster's opinions or we don't. Pretty simple stuff.

 

All I'm talking about is specific examples involving current Sox players...actual stuff that's going on.

[Nick]

Sox leaders in OPS (200+ PAs)

.804 Beni

.791 Nunez (2 teams combined)

.784 Pedey

.784 Betts

.777 HRam

.775 JBJ

.756 Moreland

.741 Bogey

.738 Young

.730 Vaz

.682 Leon

 

Interesting to note that Betts is in danger of falling to 6th place on his own team! He's only .009 ahead of JBJ and .008 ahead of HRam.

 

6th out of 11 players!

 

WOW!

 

 

Maybe, we should wait on that 10 year, $300M contract offer.

[BstHcpr]

Maybe, we should wait on that 10 year, $300M contract offer.

 

You can wait all you want, he's still going to get it.

[a700hitter]

Maybe, we should wait on that 10 year, $300M contract offer.

let him get it from someone else. Ten years is far too long for a guy whose game is very dependent on his speed. That 30 HR power from last year may be the exception and not the rule.

[Bellhorn04]

Sox leaders in OPS (200+ PAs)

.804 Beni

.791 Nunez (2 teams combined)

.784 Pedey

.784 Betts

.777 HRam

.775 JBJ

.756 Moreland

.741 Bogey

.738 Young

.730 Vaz

.682 Leon

 

Interesting to note that Betts is in danger of falling to 6th place on his own team! He's only .009 ahead of JBJ and .008 ahead of HRam.

 

6th out of 11 players!

 

WOW!

 

 

OTOH with OPS differences this miniscule a big game tonight could easily put him back in first.

 

WOW!

[Bellhorn04]

let him get it from someone else. Ten years is far too long for a guy whose game is very dependent on his speed. That 30 HR power from last year may be the exception and not the rule.

 

A 6 year offer is the call I think.

[Nick]

You can wait all you want, he's still going to get it.

 

$300M can sign several good players. I'm glad you're not my GM. You'd bankrupt me. Of course it NOT YOUR money.

 

What if this is Betts norm? You really think it's worthy of $300M contract?

[BstHcpr]

$300M can sign several good players. I'm glad you're not my GM. You'd bankrupt me. Of course it NOT YOUR money.

 

What if this is Betts norm? You really think it's worthy of $300M contract?

 

I sincerely doubt a Betts contract is going to bankrupt a $2.7 billion franchise.

 

I obviously think that a player who finished as the MVP runner up at 23 has a much higher ceiling than this.

 

If Betts' norm is an .790 OPS with plus-plus defense and baserunning, and I get to lock him up at 24? He's easily more valuable than the AAV he's getting paid for at least the first six years.

[Kimmi]

The question about Swihart is whether his 250 batting average and 550 OPS at Pawtucket in 209 plate appearances is good enough to bring him up. We don't need a catcher and both Travis and lin could fill a needed position better. I really hope that Blake gets back to what he was doing but so far his minor league play hasn't impressed.

 

I am talking about when rosters expand. I know that we don't need a catcher. I have been on board with our catchers since day one. Maybe Swihart wouldn't offer much in the way of pinch hitting, but my main point was in response to your post about Farrell being hesitant to use Vaz as a pinch hitter for Leon. Having a 3rd catching option available, in case of emergency, offers Farrell that flexibility.

[Kimmi]

The reason he's only playing catcher some games is because his ankle is still messed up. He's physically unable to play C in back to back games at the moment. He is practicing at 1B and 3B. Not sure he can help at all this year though.

 

I am aware of all of that. Having a 3rd catching option available in case of emergency gives Farrell some more flexibility in case he wants to pinch hit or pinch run for one of his catchers.