Sox hitting??

[S5Dewey]

OK. Do you know the results? I assume it would simply be "put the hitters in the order of OBP or OPS." (since the only thing of importance would be to get your best hitters up as many times as possible.) Has anyone actually run the numbers on this?

 

And this is where the argument of the batting order being almost insignificant falls apart. Those who believe that the order is almost insignificant don't believe that it's necessary to get the best hitters up as often as possible. To them you can put hitters anywhere and the difference will be very small.

[Emp9]

Maybe he just needs "protection"...LOL (I couldn't resist.)

 

Ya know, for a guy that believed Wakefield had some carry-over affect for the next game's SP (something I also think was real), I'm curious as to why this concept is so inconceivable and laughable. It's a very similar concept only inversed on the opposite end of the spectrum.

[jad]

And this is where the argument of the batting order being almost insignificant falls apart. Those who believe that the order is almost insignificant don't believe that it's necessary to get the best hitters up as often as possible. To them you can put hitters anywhere and the difference will be very small.

 

Oh, I agree with that. It's the same silliness that argues: "You have to have a #2 hitter" or "He's a good #2 starting pitcher, but not a legitimate #1,"--where the only conceivable difference in the regular season MIGHT be one more start (but likely won't be even that). I'm just wondering what the statistics on order actually are: in part, because I want to hear the loopy arguments of the traditionalists who will deny that facts make any difference!

[Emp9]

And this is where the argument of the batting order being almost insignificant falls apart. Those who believe that the order is almost insignificant don't believe that it's necessary to get the best hitters up as often as possible. To them you can put hitters anywhere and the difference will be very small.

 

Plus it's human nature to strategize . You can't prepare for what you don't know will happen. You have to try to prepare for what might happen.

[moonslav59]

To rearranging the order of that post just a bit, in 611 PA's:

.223 with nobody on base

.348 with men on base (this must mean only a runner on 1st, since RISP is a separate category and if more than one runner is on base at least one of them is in scoring position)

.404 with RISP.

 

No, men on base includes times with RISP and times with just a man on 1B alone.

[moonslav59]

Ya know, for a guy that believed Wakefield had some carry-over affect for the next game's SP (something I also think was real), I'm curious as to why this concept is so inconceivable and laughable. It's a very similar concept only inversed on the opposite end of the spectrum.

 

There may be a very slight influence with "protection" but I feel it is basically insignificant. The studies show that to be the case.

 

I don't think the fact that 6 of our 7 returning players have a worse OPS than last year proves that the loss of Papi's "protection" is the reason.

 

Why did we suck in 2014 and 2015? Papi was here in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.

 

The thing with Wake's "cary-over affect" is different. The knuckleball messes with hitters' timing. That can carry into the next game and beyond.

[S5Dewey]

No, men on base includes times with RISP and times with just a man on 1B alone.

 

Then he must hit <.348 with only a runner on which makes the spread between that and risp even greater. say he is clutch src="//d1mqtyoopj0gsc.cloudfront.net/emoticons/default_biggrin.png" alt=":D">

[S5Dewey]

 

The thing with Wake's "cary-over affect" is different. The knuckleball messes with hitters' timing. That can carry into the next game and beyond.

 

Anecdote:

When I was in HS we went up against a pitcher on a Friday night who was drafted out of HS and threw in the high 80's. To get us ready for it our coach set the pitching machine @ 85 MPH for batting practice for two days before the game. We beat that pitcher 2-1. Then the next day we went up against a "normal" HS pitcher and went scoreless! LOL

[moonslav59]

Then he must hit <.348 with only a runner on which makes the spread between that and risp even greater. say he is clutch src="//d1mqtyoopj0gsc.cloudfront.net/emoticons/default_biggrin.png" alt=":D">

 

There are clutch hits, but nobody has ever proven or convinced me there is such a thing as a "clutch hitter".

 

It's just not a sustainable skill. It's actually not even a skill.

 

You'll have a very long wait to ever hear me say, so and so "is a clutch hitter."

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think hitting with RISP is necessarily a 'clutch' stat, but I must say Mookie's RISP/bases empty splits for his career are pretty large. .975 with RISP and .800 with bases empty.

[Emp9]

There may be a very slight influence with "protection" but I feel it is basically insignificant. The studies show that to be the case.

 

I don't think the fact that 6 of our 7 returning players have a worse OPS than last year proves that the loss of Papi's "protection" is the reason.

 

Never said it was. Sure doesn't hurt the batter before him though (whoever that batter may be on any given day).

The thing with Wake's "cary-over affect" is different.

 

It is different, but I don't find it to be THAT different a concept.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Based on Farrell's comments on Pedroia (he will get some starts in the DH spot throughout the final months of the season to ease up on the knee) we can safety assume that Jay Bruce is not on the Red Sox's radar at all. I like the idea of using Pedroia in the DH spot, as it would mean less at-bats for Hanley, making the option less likely to vest.

 

Against RHP

Nunez (2b)

Benintendi (LF)

Pedroia (DH)

Betts (RF)

Devers (3b)

Bogaerts (SS)

Moreland (1b)

Bradley (CF)

Vazquez ©

 

Against LHP

Nunez (2b)

Young (LF)

Pedroia (DH)

Betts (RF)

Ramirez (1b)

Devers (3b)

Bogaerts (SS)

Bradley (CF)

Vazquez ©

 

As long as the Red Sox maintain a solid lead over the second place team, I would use Pedroia sparingly in the field. But when the playoffs start, I would expect him to be the regular second baseman.

 

Hanley's at-bats in the playoffs don't count toward the option. This is the best of both worlds: keep Pedroia healthy by using him in the DH spot, keep Hanley healthy by giving him fewer at-bats and less playing time, and reduce the chances that Hanley's option will vest. When the playoff start, Pedroia is the regular 2b and Hanley is the regular DH.

Edited August 9, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Kimmi]

Acquiring Nunez, and having him get off to such a hot start, has really given Farrell some much needed flexibility.

 

Xander appears to be heating up.

[moonslav59]

Based on Farrell's comments on Pedroia (he will get some starts in the DH spot throughout the final months of the season to ease up on the knee) we can safety assume that Jay Bruce is not on the Red Sox's radar at all. I like the idea of using Pedroia in the DH spot, as it would mean less at-bats for Hanley, making the option less likely to vest.

 

Against RHP

Nunez (2b)

Benintendi (LF)

Pedroia (DH)

Betts (RF)

Devers (3b)

Bogaerts (SS)

Moreland (1b)

Bradley (CF)

Vazquez ©

 

Against LHP

Nunez (2b)

Young (LF)

Pedroia (DH)

Betts (RF)

Ramirez (1b)

Devers (3b)

Bogaerts (SS)

Bradley (CF)

Vazquez ©

 

As long as the Red Sox maintain a solid lead over the second place team, I would use Pedroia sparingly in the field. But when the playoffs start, I would expect him to be the regular second baseman.

 

Hanley's at-bats in the playoffs don't count toward the option. This is the best of both worlds: keep Pedroia healthy by using him in the DH spot, keep Hanley healthy by giving him fewer at-bats and less playing time, and reduce the chances that Hanley's option will vest. When the playoff start, Pedroia is the regular 2b and Hanley is the regular DH.

 

Again, unless HRam is injured, he will not be platooned and play vs just LHPs.

 

IMO, he will play 1B when Pedey DHs and Moreland will sit.

[moonslav59]

Never said it was. Sure doesn't hurt the batter before him though (whoever that batter may be on any given day).

The thing with Wake's "carry-over affect" is different.

 

It is different, but I don't find it to be THAT different a concept.

 

I think it is. Hitters can "lose their timing" when facing a knuckle ball pitcher. Once a hitter loses his timing, it may be a while before he gets it back.

 

How a pitcher might pitch a batter before a great hitter is up next is a way different situation and argument.

 

If people really believe that "clutch hitters" exist, I'm assuming because they must "try harder" when it counts, then why wouldn't those same people believe that a pitcher would "try extra hard" to get someone out right before a big hitter? One might expect a pitcher would have better numbers on the same batters in situations where they are being "protected" by a big bat behind them vs not having "protection".

 

(I think this has all been rehashed several times. There are believers and disbelievers. I'm not sure anyone is ever going to sway the other side on anything here.)

 

[Bellhorn04]

I think it is. Hitters can "lose their timing" when facing a knuckle ball pitcher. Once a hitter loses his timing, it may be a while before he gets it back.

 

Any stats to support the theory?

[fxkatt]

To me On Base Average, RISP, and 2-out RBIs looked at together is what constitutes a "CLUTCH HITTER." Ortiz and Ted Williams are obviously way up on that list. Most good hitters are also clutch hitters, but not all of them. There are some good hitters that are better table setters like many lead-off hitters who have high on base ave. but don't fulfill the other two categories.

[mvp 78]

If people really believe that "clutch hitters" exist, I'm assuming because they must "try harder" when it counts....

 

It's not that "clutch players try harder," it's that some players shrink under the pressure and let their nerves get to them. If you can hit or pitch the same with a bases loaded jam in the bottom of the 9th as you do in the 1st inning, you're clutch. It has NOTHING to do with elevating your game in crucial moments. It's about being consistent and not letting stressful situations get the better of you.

[Bellhorn04]

Are we really going to resurrect the 'clutch' debate? Yay.

[mvp 78]

Are we really going to resurrect the 'clutch' debate? Yay.

 

It looks like it was resurrected a few days ago. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

I have nothing else to say on the matter though. I'm done. It's not like moon reads my posts anyway.

[S5Dewey]

One word: Adrenaline.

[Bellhorn04]

It looks like it was resurrected a few days ago. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

I have nothing else to say on the matter though. I'm done. It's not like moon reads my posts anyway.

 

Sure he does.

[moonslav59]

Any stats to support the theory?

 

I don't have them anymore. My old computer s*** the bed and I lost everything.

 

Years ago, I did a study of how the pitcher did when pitching the day after Wake vs the same team. I compared his game ERA with his yearly ERA that season. I know, it's kind of a crude study, but I went back over Wake's entire career with Boston, so the sample size was rather large.

 

There was a significant differential between post Wake games vs non post Wake games. I think it was just under a run per game.

 

[sk7326]

OK. Do you know the results? I assume it would simply be "put the hitters in the order of OBP or OPS." (since the only thing of importance would be to get your best hitters up as many times as possible.) Has anyone actually run the numbers on this?

 

It wouldn't QUITE be like that ... because the lineup wraps around. There are two things to balance with a lineup ...

 

1. You want your best hitters coming up as often as possible

2. You want your best hitters coming up with lots of run creation opportunities

 

You bat your top OPS guy 1st ... you get #1, but at the expense of #2. Batting your best hitter 2nd (I need to find the book where the study is from) - by a small margin (all the margins are small) - is the best way to balance the two.

[sk7326]

Acquiring Nunez, and having him get off to such a hot start, has really given Farrell some much needed flexibility.

 

Xander appears to be heating up.

 

Nunez is definitely one of those "hot craps roller" sort of hitters ... he's up there to swing ... but if he is squaring it up, hooray, ride it as long as possible. Add his ability to play a ton of positions (granted, all of them pretty badly) and he is very helpful in 12-13 man pitching staff baseball.

[moonslav59]

Nunez OPS+ in recent years ...

(starting with 2017 and going backwards)

 

115 (224 with Sox)

103

107

 

Other Sox players:

Betts:109, 133, 117

J B J: 100, 118, 119

Bogey: 96, 111, 107

Pedey: 107, 117, 112

HRam: 101, 126, 89

Moreland: 97, 88, 116

 

FYI: Big FA Bats for this winter?

 

1B

Hosmer: 126, 101, 122

Alonso: 141, 89, 109

L Duda: 155, 91, 130

Santana: 102, 123, 102

Morrison: 141, 100, 92

 

3B

Moustakas: 119, 108, 119

 

OF (DH)

JD Martinez: 157, 144, 139

Upton: 133, 108, 119

Bruce: 118, 112, 97

 

Best bats available are probably Duda, Martinez or Hosmer with Upton and Moustakas as the only 5 guys with 2 out of the last 3 seasons having an OPS+ at 119 or above or one of the last 3 seasons above 150.

 

If we could sign Duda and Nunez, I feel our offense would look very good next year. I'd prefer JD Martinez, but I don't see him playing 1B, if HRam needs to DH only. If we want to get out of HRam's vesting option we could basically platoon him at DH with Nunez.

 

2018:

1. Pedey 2B

2. Nunez DH v R/LF v L

3. Duda 1B

4. Betts RF

5. Devers 3B v R/ HRam 1B v L

6. Beni LF v R/ Bogey SS v L

7. JBJ CF R/ Devers 3B v L

8. Bogey SS v R/ JBJ CF v L

9. Vaz (Leon)

 

Bench:

Beni (v L) or HRam (v R)

Holt

Hernandez, Marrero, Lin or Brentz

Leon

 

 

[Kimmi]

Any stats to support the theory?

 

Well, reading briefly on the topic, it seems that the 'Knuckleball Hangover' is another myth that has been mostly debunked, so it looks like I was wrong in my belief in such a thing. What little hangover effect there might be in a few hitters is too small to really be of any significance.

 

I will have to look into it a little more closely.

[moonslav59]

Well, reading briefly on the topic, it seems that the 'Knuckleball Hangover' is another myth that has been mostly debunked, so it looks like I was wrong in my belief in such a thing. What little hangover effect there might be in a few hitters is too small to really be of any significance.

 

I will have to look into it a little more closely.

 

It seemed to work great for the Sox pitchers after Wake.

 

(I wish I could reproduce the study I made years ago on games after Wake vs the same opponents.)

[Larry Cook]

Farrell has to decide what to do with playing time going forward.

 

Hanley, Moreland, holy and bogey are playing like zombies.

[moonslav59]

Farrell has to decide what to do with playing time going forward.

 

Hanley, Moreland, holy and bogey are playing like zombies.

 

You forgot JBJ and Betts.

 

Last 14 days (before tonight)

.496 HRam(.680 in last 28 days)

.546 JBJ (.532 in last 28 days)

.612 Betts (.662 in last 28 days)

.639 Holt (.526 in last 28)

.658 Bogey (.509 in last 28 days)

 

Moreland has actually heated up:

.968 in last 14 days