Sox hitting??

[moonslav59]

Back to hitting. So with the Yankees coming with a lefty and players on hot/cold streaks, who plays and in what batting order?

 

1. Nunez (3rd)

2. Beni (LF)

3. Pedey (2nd)

4. Betts (RF)

5. Hanley (1st)

6. Bogey SS)

7. Vaz ©

8. JBJ (CF)

9. Young (DH)

 

Beni has been hitting so well he is tough to sit. Devers is also hard to sit but I see it as he or Young. If Devers plays he is at third and Nunez is DH.

 

Lots of other possibilities to keep our defense intact while putting our best hitting lineup against lefties in the game.

 

Devers sat Tuesday, and everyone got today off. I want to keep Devers in the line-up. I also want Young in vs a lefty.

 

That leaves JBJ, Bogey, Beni, HRam, Pedey or Nunez would have to sit.

 

Maybe it's time to give Bogey 2 days off in a row. I know he's showing signs of life, but I think he need rest more than anyone else. Nunez to SS, HRam to 1B, and Young to DH.

 

My second choice might be to rest the slumping JBJ, play Beni in CF and Young in LF.

[sk7326]

For years, all we've heard is pitching, pitching, and pitching! Well, we have that. Of course it would be nice to have top pitching and and a top offense, but we have top pitching and a mediocre offense, which I still think should be better than it has been. That's better than having a top offense and mediocre pitching, no?

 

top pitching and defense ... they have been excellent in 2 of the 3 phases. And - as we've noted all year - there is reason to think there is upside still offensively.

[moonslav59]

top pitching and defense ... they have been excellent in 2 of the 3 phases. And - as we've noted all year - there is reason to think there is upside still offensively.

 

Yes, and it's not like we're last in offense.

 

Despite the power shortage, we're just 3 runs from 8th place in runs scored.

 

We can get to the WS this year.

 

AL Only

 

Offense 5th in runs scored

3 runs from 4th SEA

11 runs from 3rd TEX

43 from 2nd NYY

119 from 1st HOU

(Guardians are 7th.)

 

Pitching 1st in ERA-

79 BOS

84 CLE

87 NYY

96 KCR

97 TBR

 

Defense 1st in UZR/ 2nd in UZR/150

30.2 BOS

28.2 KCR

24.2 LAA

13.0 LAA

12.5 DET

5.3 CLE (way back)

(Astros are 14th at -33.5)

 

Weird how we have a better ERA- than CLE and a better D, but the Guardians have let up less runs. (We have played in 3 more games.)

 

438 CLE

458 BOS

467 NYY

501 HOU

502 LAA

513 TBR

516 KCR

 

Base running (fangraphs)

20.0 TBR

13.7 TEX

3.2 KCR

1.7 NYY

1.1 BOS

10th CLE -4.1

12th HOU -14.7

 

 

 

[cp176]

I have been hearing quite a bit of the "win now mode" that we are in and I have to say I'm all for it. i have been in a win now mode for this team since 1967 and but for just a few years we have had a right to think that we could. Sometimes we did. I like it though - win now - it works for me. i would hate to think that what we had to look forward to was simply next year. it is and has been a great franchise that does not have to rely on a low budget feeder system. Win now - interesting - works for me.

[Larry Cook]

The top third of the lineup is carrying this team. We really need the zombies to wake up and get some hits this weekend.

[moonslav59]

62 runs in the last 10 games despite the "zombies".

[oldtimer]

Devers sat Tuesday, and everyone got today off. I want to keep Devers in the line-up. I also want Young in vs a lefty.

 

That leaves JBJ, Bogey, Beni, HRam, Pedey or Nunez would have to sit.

 

Maybe it's time to give Bogey 2 days off in a row. I know he's showing signs of life, but I think he need rest more than anyone else. Nunez to SS, HRam to 1B, and Young to DH.

 

My second choice might be to rest the slumping JBJ, play Beni in CF and Young in LF.

 

A logical adjustment to my approach. Hard to sit Beni when he has been hot. If you rest Bogey and play Devers it is a pretty effective lineup.

[Slasher9]

For years, all we've heard is pitching, pitching, and pitching! Well, we have that. Of course it would be nice to have top pitching and and a top offense, but we have top pitching and a mediocre offense, which I still think should be better than it has been. That's better than having a top offense and mediocre pitching, no?

 

100%. Pitching = Parades

[Larry Cook]

A logical adjustment to my approach. Hard to sit Beni when he has been hot. If you rest Bogey and play Devers it is a pretty effective lineup.

 

Bogey looks completely lost at the plate. he is a man in need of 27 innings on the bench.

[Slasher9]

My guess is JBj gets the night off.

Devers and nunez with their first taste of the rivalry.

[moonslav59]

My guess is JBj gets the night off.

Devers and nunez with their first taste of the rivalry.

 

I'd hate to sit JBJ in a park with a big CF, but to me, it should be JBJ or Bogey who sit, so Nunez & Devers (and Young) can both play.

[a700hitter]

My guess is JBj gets the night off.

Devers and nunez with their first taste of the rivalry.

I think Nunez might have seen the rivalry from the other dugout.

[Kimmi]

62 runs in the last 10 games despite the "zombies".

 

Since the All Star break, the Yankees are 25th in runs scored.

 

Who would have thunk it?

[a700hitter]

Since the All Star break, the Yankees are 25th in runs scored.

 

Who would have thunk it?

The Yankees were playing way over their heads.

[User Name]

The league was bound to adjust to Judge.

[Slasher9]

I think Nunez might have seen the rivalry from the other dugout.

 

yup. my bad.

[S5Dewey]

The league was bound to adjust to Judge.

 

There may or may not be "statistics" to back this up, but it seems like some of those players who participate in the Home Run Derby go into a power slump afterward.

[mvp 78]

There may or may not be "statistics" to back this up, but it seems like some of those players who participate in the Home Run Derby go into a power slump afterward.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-home-run-derby-curse/

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/7/5/15919218/home-run-derby-curse-2017

 

First thing is first: the players that are selected to the Home Run Derby are always those who have hit a lot of homers in the first half of the season. That number is backed up by the fact that just one (let’s bold and italicize that) of the 80 data points posted a first half HR/FB rate of below the 10.1 percent median. That was 2014 Yoenis Cespedes, who fell just 0.1 percentage points shy with a 10.0 percent HR/FB rate after hitting 14 home runs in the first half.

 

That makes 79 of 80 — or 98.8 percent — of Derby participants over the last 10 years already “lucky” from their first half numbers by what would be considered an inflation fly balls to home run rate.

 

 

What’s more is that these players weren’t just lucky in the first half; they were extremely lucky. An outrageous 41 of the 80 participants — just over half — posted first half HR/FB rates of above 20 (!!!) percent. For an outrageous comparison, in 2014, just six of 146 qualified hitters (4.1 percent) kept their HR/FB rate above 20 percent for the entire season. In a normal year, we see between 10-15 hitters do this. Regardless, it shows how rare it is to have this high of a HR/FB rate.

 

That’s why it all has to come crashing back down to Earth.

[S5Dewey]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-home-run-derby-curse/

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/7/5/15919218/home-run-derby-curse-2017

 

First thing is first: the players that are selected to the Home Run Derby are always those who have hit a lot of homers in the first half of the season. That number is backed up by the fact that just one (let’s bold and italicize that) of the 80 data points posted a first half HR/FB rate of below the 10.1 percent median. That was 2014 Yoenis Cespedes, who fell just 0.1 percentage points shy with a 10.0 percent HR/FB rate after hitting 14 home runs in the first half.

 

That makes 79 of 80 — or 98.8 percent — of Derby participants over the last 10 years already “lucky” from their first half numbers by what would be considered an inflation fly balls to home run rate.

 

 

What’s more is that these players weren’t just lucky in the first half; they were extremely lucky. An outrageous 41 of the 80 participants — just over half — posted first half HR/FB rates of above 20 (!!!) percent. For an outrageous comparison, in 2014, just six of 146 qualified hitters (4.1 percent) kept their HR/FB rate above 20 percent for the entire season. In a normal year, we see between 10-15 hitters do this. Regardless, it shows how rare it is to have this high of a HR/FB rate.

 

That’s why it all has to come crashing back down to Earth.

 

Well, whaddaya know! My observations were right (for once)!

 

Thanks for the research.

[Emp9]

Is the AL ROY still a lock or is it up for grabs? About 50 games left depending on team schedules and make-up games. It'll be fun to watch. Judge's massive strike zone (not his fault) puts him at a disadvantage and that's something he'll have to deal with his whole career. I like Beni for 20 HR, 20 SB, .280, .800. I've been a little disappointed w/ Beni vs LHP and he'll probably have to improve his numbers vs LHP to have any sort of chance.

[User Name]

There may or may not be "statistics" to back this up, but it seems like some of those players who participate in the Home Run Derby go into a power slump afterward.

 

The actual adjustment has been reported on a couple websites (look up Aaron Judge increase in high fastballs and low sliders). They were looking for his weaknesses and apparently high heat and low and away sliders are eating him up. Nothing to do with the HR derby, they just found a way to pitch to him.

[Slasher9]

Well, whaddaya know! My observations were right (for once)!

 

Thanks for the research.

 

sorry pal. hitting is random. there is no such thing as a slump.

[S5Dewey]

sorry pal. hitting is random. there is no such thing as a slump.

 

Damn! Sometimes I forget even the basic stuff.

[mvp 78]

Damn! Sometimes I forget even the basic stuff.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-hot-hand-is-real/

 

Hot hand exists for pitching, not hitting.

[User Name]

That is excellent reading. Thanks MVP.

[mvp 78]

That is excellent reading. Thanks MVP.

 

My pleasure, Sir Juggernaut!

[Emp9]

The actual adjustment has been reported on a couple websites (look up Aaron Judge increase in high fastballs and low sliders). They were looking for his weaknesses and apparently high heat and low and away sliders are eating him up. Nothing to do with the HR derby, they just found a way to pitch to him.

 

agreed. That's a typical way to approach him though. Pitchers also have to execute high heat and low and away sliders. ... something they haven't done that well even when trying to. Again, credit his size and his reach.

[Slasher9]

from the article:

If hot streaks are real, as our results suggest, they probably apply to more than just pitchers. We started out looking at fastball velocity because it is one of the most consistent and important performance characteristics in baseball, but our method could be applied to anything, from how hard a batter is hitting the ball to how often he swings the bat.

[sk7326]

The actual adjustment has been reported on a couple websites (look up Aaron Judge increase in high fastballs and low sliders). They were looking for his weaknesses and apparently high heat and low and away sliders are eating him up. Nothing to do with the HR derby, they just found a way to pitch to him.

 

Also, as it turns out - he's a rookie.

[Emp9]

from the article:

If hot streaks are real, as our results suggest, they probably apply to more than just pitchers. We started out looking at fastball velocity because it is one of the most consistent and important performance characteristics in baseball, but our method could be applied to anything, from how hard a batter is hitting the ball to how often he swings the bat.

 

you ... whole article readin' mothaf***er