Sox hitting??

[S5Dewey]

The single biggest problem is that we are dead last in the league in HRs. IMO.

 

But isn't that only a problem if we lose?

[oldtimer]

The lack of home run power is definitely a big part of our lack of run production. I agree with Moon though when he points out how many of our regulars have had worse to much worse batting numbers when compared to last year. If you discount Beni and Devers as rookies, and applaud Vaz for a much better season than expected, the remainder of our hitters haven't been as good as a year ago. Nunez came into the team late and he has really bolstered the team before getting injured, but he wasn't on last years team.

 

There has been talk about how this happened. The loss of power in part stems from the loss of Papi and a lack of funds to get a power hitter from the FA market. The lack of hitting has been attributed to poor coaching and/or our guys just had a great yeaar last year and that was an outlier. Our hitters talents are really reflected by this years performance. Whatever the reason for our reduced power and hitting this year, we are what we are going into the playoffs and will get some help when Nunez returns.

 

Next year, DD and the coaches and managers need to have a heart to heart and decide what to do to improve things, assuming there will be some additional money available. Trades, acquisitions and minor league possibilities all need to be looked at and it might be necessary to make some unpalatable moves to get better overall.

[moonslav59]

You don't really deserve to be ahead by 15 games with a run differential of about 130.

 

You don't think we'd be up by 15, if we were leading the league in runs scored right now?

 

Okay, maybe it was a bit hyperbolic, but we'd clearly have clinched by now.

 

BTW, our run differential is now 139. If we scored enough to lead league in runs scored this year, we'd have to add about 80 runs (or actually take that away from those ahead of us) making our differential about + 220.

[moonslav59]

The lack of home run power is definitely a big part of our lack of run production. I agree with Moon though when he points out how many of our regulars have had worse to much worse batting numbers when compared to last year. If you discount Beni and Devers as rookies, and applaud Vaz for a much better season than expected, the remainder of our hitters haven't been as good as a year ago. Nunez came into the team late and he has really bolstered the team before getting injured, but he wasn't on last years team.

 

There has been talk about how this happened. The loss of power in part stems from the loss of Papi and a lack of funds to get a power hitter from the FA market. The lack of hitting has been attributed to poor coaching and/or our guys just had a great yeaar last year and that was an outlier. Our hitters talents are really reflected by this years performance. Whatever the reason for our reduced power and hitting this year, we are what we are going into the playoffs and will get some help when Nunez returns.

 

Next year, DD and the coaches and managers need to have a heart to heart and decide what to do to improve things, assuming there will be some additional money available. Trades, acquisitions and minor league possibilities all need to be looked at and it might be necessary to make some unpalatable moves to get better overall.

 

I can't see DD not going all in for a big bat clean-up hitter. It is so clearly our weakest point.

 

[notin]

But isn't that only a problem if we lose?

 

Exactly. This team is built on pitching.

 

How many years of great hitters like Williams, Yaz, Rice, Boggs, etc. with zero titles do people need to see before they realize offense alone doesn't cut it?

[moonslav59]

Exactly. This team is built on pitching.

 

How many years of great hitters like Williams, Yaz, Rice, Boggs, etc. with zero titles do people need to see before they realize offense alone doesn't cut it?

 

Yes, it's no coincidence that the 3 rings we got involved these key elements:

 

2004: Pedro, Schilling & Foulke

 

2007: Beckett, Schilling & Papelbon

 

2013: Lester, Lackey & Uehara

 

2 aces and a top closer goes a long way.

 

Longer than having 9 bash brothers in the line-up and no pitching.

 

[Northern Star]

I can't see DD not going all in for a big bat clean-up hitter. It is so clearly our weakest point.

 

 

The thought of DD going "all in" scares me.

[moonslav59]

The thought of DD going "all in" scares me.

 

Like all in for Price?

 

Or, all in for Sale?

[oldtimer]

Since this string is about hitting, I will talk about how we have hitters getting into protracted slumps after hitting well for a while. It happens to most players on most teams. Maybe because I watch this team so closely, I think it happens more often with our guys. Today, Moreland finally hit a ball for a HR and it gave us the breathing room to feel comfortable. That was his first hit in 19 AB's. He had been swinging at many balls thrown at or above his letters. The opposing pitchers had his number and he wasn't finding his way out. when he did make contact, he was hitting mostly to left or popping up. I think Beni recently went through an 0 for 19 as well.

 

Perhaps the point here is that the players are not getting the help they need from the hitting coach. When there are glaring issues, one would think the hitting coaches would be aggressively trying to communicate those. We have had JBJ, Betts, Bogaerts, Hanley all go into these protracted slumps and have difficulty getting out. I read this as time for a new hitting coach.

[moonslav59]

Since this string is about hitting, I will talk about how we have hitters getting into protracted slumps after hitting well for a while. It happens to most players on most teams. Maybe because I watch this team so closely, I think it happens more often with our guys. Today, Moreland finally hit a ball for a HR and it gave us the breathing room to feel comfortable. That was his first hit in 19 AB's. He had been swinging at many balls thrown at or above his letters. The opposing pitchers had his number and he wasn't finding his way out. when he did make contact, he was hitting mostly to left or popping up. I think Beni recently went through an 0 for 19 as well.

 

Perhaps the point here is that the players are not getting the help they need from the hitting coach. When there are glaring issues, one would think the hitting coaches would be aggressively trying to communicate those. We have had JBJ, Betts, Bogaerts, Hanley all go into these protracted slumps and have difficulty getting out. I read this as time for a new hitting coach.

 

It's hard to know the reason for all the slumps our hitters have been in this year. Certainly blaming that manager and hitting coach can become a popular response. I've done some myself.

 

Some blame much of it on the loss of Papi.

 

I kept thinking this team's offense was going to get in stride at some point. It hasn't really happened.

 

I'm not sure there's any one reason, but I'm hoping we can hit just enough to cover our staff.

 

[Larry Cook]

The biggest problem with the slumps is our guys are flawed hitters. Most can't hit the low outside slider, yet none can lay off it.

 

Another problem is almost all are nicked up. Broken toes, hurt knees, sore hands, thumbs and wrists. Just a ton of injuries that affect timing.

[Nick]

DD has done well stocking this this team WHILE resetting the tax rate this year.

 

Moon is correct I think in DD going after a clean up bat this off season.

 

By next spring, Carson Smith should be our 8th inning guy. Our bullpen should be well stocked.

 

My concern offensively is that perhaps 2017 is the norm while 2016 was exceptional year for many of our players. Just because they get older is no guaranty of getting better production. See Dustin Pedroia as an example.

 

I suppose the biggest question mark heading into 2018 is David Price's health. What if his 'issues' persist from time to time? What I'm afraid is him needing surgery at some point and losing out 2 years from him.

[oldtimer]

DD has done well stocking this this team WHILE resetting the tax rate this year.

 

Moon is correct I think in DD going after a clean up bat this off season.

 

By next spring, Carson Smith should be our 8th inning guy. Our bullpen should be well stocked.

 

My concern offensively is that perhaps 2017 is the norm while 2016 was exceptional year for many of our players. Just because they get older is no guaranty of getting better production. See Dustin Pedroia as an example.

 

I suppose the biggest question mark heading into 2018 is David Price's health. What if his 'issues' persist from time to time? What I'm afraid is him needing surgery at some point and losing out 2 years from him.

 

Yes, it is unlikely that Pedroia and Hanley will be better in 2018 then this year. That's why having solid backup at 2nd is important to give Dustin some rest. Hanley is so often injured or sore that he too will need backup and/or a platoon player. Nunez could solve a lot of that need or if need be, we pick up someone else that can fill both roles effectiively. Otherwise, the team is still in prime age or below.

[oldtimer]

It's hard to know the reason for all the slumps our hitters have been in this year. Certainly blaming that manager and hitting coach can become a popular response. I've done some myself.

 

Some blame much of it on the loss of Papi.

 

I kept thinking this team's offense was going to get in stride at some point. It hasn't really happened.

 

I'm not sure there's any one reason, but I'm hoping we can hit just enough to cover our staff.

 

 

I don't necessarily blame the hitting coach, but it is the easiest place to fix so I would go after that first.

[Bellhorn04]

BTW, our run differential is now 139.

 

Hmm...I have checked, double-checked, and triple-checked, and I still have 749 minus 620 coming out to 129.

[moonslav59]

Hmm...I have checked, double-checked, and triple-checked, and I still have 749 minus 620 coming out to 129.

 

You're right. I swear, when I checked yesterday we were at 754 on fangraphs, and I added 5 after yesterday's win.

 

Even at 129. my point is still valid, if we still led the league in runs scored as our number is on pace to have done against 2016's totals, we'd have to have a run differential of over 200. That very well might have had us up by 15 right by season's end.

 

The issue is two fold:

 

1) We scored about a hundred less runs this year (but also will let up much less).

 

2) The rest of the league has scored way more runs than last year (mostly as a result of much more HRs).

 

Here's a look at the top scoring teams (700 or more runs scored or projected to score) from 2016 and (projected) 2017 teams:

(I added 5% to all 2017 teams.)

 

878 BOS '16

871 HOU '17

857 NYY '17

824 CLE '17

819 MIN '17

814 TEX '17

787 BOS '17

777 CLE '16

768 SEA '16

765 TEX '16

763 BAL '17

759 TOR '16

753 SEA '17

751 DET '17

750 DET '16

744 BAL '16

740 OAK '17

724 HOU '16

722 MIN '16

717 LAA '16

714 KCR '17

710 CWS '17

701 LAA '17

[moonslav59]

Runs allowed 2016 and 2017 (projected):

 

573 CLE '17

651 BOS '17

665 NYY '17

666 TOR '16

676 CLE '16

694 BOS '16

701 HOU '16

702 NYY '16

707 SEA '16

707 HOU '17

707 LAA '17

708 TBR '17

712 KCR '16

713 TBR '16

715 CWS '16

715 BAL '16

721 DET '16

727 LAA '16

757 TEX '16

761 OAK '16

777 SEA '17

 

What's interesting here is that not only the Sox are allowing less runs than anyone less last year, despite the run scoring increase league-wide.

 

 

[moonslav59]

So, we're on pace to score about 90 less runs than last year while allowing 45 less runs than last year.

 

We have the exact same record as last year, and last year's team lost 5 of their last 8.

 

If this doesn't show how much more good pitching matters, I don't know what does.

 

We're on pace to have a differential of 45 runs worse than 2016, but because we have better pitching, it doesn't' matter.

[S5Dewey]

So, we're on pace to score about 90 less runs than last year while allowing 45 less runs than last year.

 

We have the exact same record as last year, and last year's team lost 5 of their last 8.

 

If this doesn't show how much more good pitching matters, I don't know what does.

 

We're on pace to have a differential of 45 runs worse than 2016, but because we have better pitching, it doesn't' matter.

 

I agree that the pitching is better but also let's not forget the difference our "Killer B's" outfield has made in preventing hits and runs.

[moonslav59]

I agree that the pitching is better but also let's not forget the difference our "Killer B's" outfield has made in preventing hits and runs.

 

Yes, pitching and defense.

 

If only our left side infield defense could improve, our D would be great.

 

2016 vs 2017 Defensive Numbers:

 

UZR/150

 

6.7 LAA '16

5.5 CLE '16

5.2 SEA '17

4.5 KCT '16

4.3 BOS '16

3.8 HOU '16

3.5 CLE '17

3.4 BOS '17

 

DRS (projected 2017)

61 TBR '17

51 HOU '16

48 BOS '16

42 BOS '17

 

It doesn't look like our overall defense has improved between 2016 and 2017.

 

 

[Larry Cook]

So, we're on pace to score about 90 less runs than last year while allowing 45 less runs than last year.

 

We have the exact same record as last year, and last year's team lost 5 of their last 8.

 

If this doesn't show how much more good pitching matters, I don't know what does.

 

We're on pace to have a differential of 45 runs worse than 2016, but because we have better pitching, it doesn't' matter.

 

Pitching, defense and timing hitting are the keys to a championship.

 

The hitting is what is driving every body crazy this year. It is so unpredictable,

 

Take today's game. We have 1 run through 7 innings and our offense looks terrible, then explode for 4 runs in the 8th.

[moonslav59]

Pitching, defense and timing hitting are the keys to a championship.

 

The hitting is what is driving every body crazy this year. It is so unpredictable,

 

Take today's game. We have 1 run through 7 innings and our offense looks terrible, then explode for 4 runs in the 8th.

 

Runs are often scored in bunches. I'm not sure it's so unpredictable.

 

We've hit well towards the ends of games, especially extra inning games.

[Emp9]

So, as long as we don't dig ourselves an insurmountable hole to climb out of, we should be very competitive when ALL 9 Innings (or more) are said and done.

[Emp9]

I do miss having Ortiz (of course everyone on here does save for the NY fans), but Sale has equalized that loss and then some. Is there a way to predict a favorite in playoff games for a short series vs a long series? I feel like our chances of advancement throughout the post season are better if any particular series drags on. Hmm.... I'll put it another way, the more a series drags on the more I like our chances. The more pitches we see, the better. The more times we get to use Sale, the better. We don't seem to have that almost guaranteed game changer (at least not this season) in our lineup everyday like we had in Ortiz (unless someone steps up-Betts?, Devers?). So, powering our way to a playoff win may not happen,. But we can wear teams down over a long series maybe.

[moonslav59]

I do miss having Ortiz (of course everyone on here does save for the NY fans), but Sale has equalized that loss and then some. Is there a way to predict a favorite in playoff games for a short series vs a long series? I feel like our chances of advancement throughout the post season are better if any particular series drags on. Hmm.... I'll put it another way, the more a series drags on the more I like our chances. The more pitches we see, the better. The more times we get to use Sale, the better. We don't seem to have that almost guaranteed game changer (at least not this season) in our lineup everyday like we had in Ortiz (unless someone steps up-Betts?, Devers?). So, powering our way to a playoff win may not happen,. But we can wear teams down over a long series maybe.

 

Yes.

 

The number one thing odds makers look at when setting the line is who is starting for each team.

[oldtimer]

Yes.

 

The number one thing odds makers look at when setting the line is who is starting for each team.

 

Yes, and tonight we will see Nunez return. He may well be rusty, but it is good to see him back in the lineup.

[moonslav59]

Yes, and tonight we will see Nunez return. He may well be rusty, but it is good to see him back in the lineup.

 

Great news. Ease him in slowly.

 

With Pedey looking shaky, Nunez could be a key force.

[oldtimer]

Great news. Ease him in slowly.

 

With Pedey looking shaky, Nunez could be a key force.

 

Now, Nunez seems to have more of an injury than first suspected. That was an ominous sign last night with him in pain during an AB. Add to that, Mookie had a sore wrist and was removed. Not good news at this point.

[Kimmi]

Now, Nunez seems to have more of an injury than first suspected. That was an ominous sign last night with him in pain during an AB. Add to that, Mookie had a sore wrist and was removed. Not good news at this point.

 

The injury to Nunez looked pretty bad, but he seems to think he'll be back for the regular season Houston series.

[oldtimer]

The injury to Nunez looked pretty bad, but he seems to think he'll be back for the regular season Houston series.

 

Yes, and we miss him greatly. We have JBJ hitting for a .173 avg for the month of Sept and not at all for the last week. Hanley is a shadow of the guy we need. If we get the pennant it will be an accomplishment with hitting this poor.