Sox hitting??

[notin]

I'm realistic. Hell I give up Beni and whatever they want in our minor league system for Stanton. A 60 homer guy. I'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

Benintendi would be the smart choice, as getting Stanton would leave him without a position anyway. What if they wanted both Benintendi and Devers?

 

To get a player like Stanton, you have to figure its going to cost more than you want to pay. Even with his contract...

[notin]

The Sox offense may not be tops in the AL, but they do rank 6th in runs/game and 5th in OBP. They are next to last in SLG. So OBP does appear to be very important for generating runs. Only one team, Texas, has a higher runs/game with a lower OBP.

 

True.

 

They're aren't horrible. But 6th out of 15 shouldn't be considered too impressive, either...

[moonslav59]

True.

 

They're aren't horrible. But 6th out of 15 shouldn't be considered too impressive, either...

 

The problem is that the teams ahead of us and in the playoffs have top 5 pitching, too.

[oldtimer]

The problem is that the teams ahead of us and in the playoffs have top 5 pitching, too.

 

The problem is many of our players are slumping and not performing as well as thier season long performances would indicate. The same can be said for our starting pitching. It is still doable to win the pennant but getting more dicey as opportunities get fewer. Hard to argue that the Guardians, Houston or even the Yankees are inferior to us.

 

There is no immediate fix for that and many suggested long term fixes lead to derision. The closest thing anyone can agree to is that we need a power bat or two, probably through FA acquisition. Suggesting that Chili Davis has any culpability in our general decline in hitting has been labeled asinine by some. It's all on the players is the retort. Now, suggest we use some of our worst performing hitters as trade bait is a non-starter for some. If Chili isn't responsible and the players are not responsible, who is? The logic escapes me. Moving Devers to 1st base as a possibility is beyond the consideration of some, even though he has had a very poor start at fiiellding his position. Lots of other discussions on this web lead me to believe that we are better off leaving DD to sort out the situation and take steps to make this team more competitive.

[cp176]

Your last sentence I agree with entirely!

[cp176]

Another might be lofty expectations.

 

The assumption was the offense that outscored everyone by 100 runs would take a step down but still be good without Ortiz. But if removing Ortiz had a bigger impact than anyone thought, that isn't on Chili Davis.

 

And if Davis was such an inadequate hitting coach capable of destroying the entire lineup at once, how on Earth did this team outscore everyone by 100 runs last year when he was the hitting coach then, too?

 

After 160 games this has to be true. This is who were are.

[devildavid]

Another might be lofty expectations.

 

The assumption was the offense that outscored everyone by 100 runs would take a step down but still be good without Ortiz. But if removing Ortiz had a bigger impact than anyone thought, that isn't on Chili Davis.

 

And if Davis was such an inadequate hitting coach capable of destroying the entire lineup at once, how on Earth did this team outscore everyone by 100 runs last year when he was the hitting coach then, too?

 

The loss of Ortiz alone does not explain the dropoff. The entire team has not performed as well on offense in 2017 as in 2016. It's as simple as that. Adding a big bat would not have raised this team's production to the 2016 level.

[cp176]

Sometimes there just isn't going to be a good explanation. Pedroia is aging and has been beat up . Ramirez has just been painfully inconsistent. He isn't the same guy he was when he broke in. Bradley has pretty much been this way for a few years. If you are talking about Betts and Bogaerts I agree but other than those two guys - really come on. The entire team! Most of us kind of thought that Leon wasn't the guy we watched last year. I understand that it is important to search for answers when things don't go as planned but sometimes they just don't. This particular team has over achieved this year.

[OH FOY]

Combine 1st base and DH last year to this year. How many RBI's are you short? Exactly 100 to this point. That's the problem.

DH big problem, 127 RBI's last year, 61 this year. From the 2 main players who do this. Ortiz and Ramirez.

Edited September 30, 2017 by OH FOY!

[oldtimer]

Sometimes there just isn't going to be a good explanation. Pedroia is aging and has been beat up . Ramirez has just been painfully inconsistent. He isn't the same guy he was when he broke in. Bradley has pretty much been this way for a few years. If you are talking about Betts and Bogaerts I agree but other than those two guys - really come on. The entire team! Most of us kind of thought that Leon wasn't the guy we watched last year. I understand that it is important to search for answers when things don't go as planned but sometimes they just don't. This particular team has over achieved this year.

 

Still, to back next year with the same people playing and coaching may well produce the same results or worse, as some of our players are aging noticably. Guys like Young and Holt are also having tough years. Almost like an insidious disease has infected the club. When I see players taking two pitches as strikes and then swing out of the strike zone, it says that they don't have the right kind of positive thinking to do the job. There have been countless examples of this and it occurs to many players and in most games. It is difficult to believe the problem will be fixed unless moves are made.

 

Yes, get a big bat or two and yes move our poorest performers and yes consider reloating players who struggle with defense and yes try to resign our best free agents and yes, look hard at the jobs that the coaches are doing by the results they are getting.

[moonslav59]

Sometimes there just isn't going to be a good explanation. Pedroia is aging and has been beat up . Ramirez has just been painfully inconsistent. He isn't the same guy he was when he broke in. Bradley has pretty much been this way for a few years. If you are talking about Betts and Bogaerts I agree but other than those two guys - really come on. The entire team! Most of us kind of thought that Leon wasn't the guy we watched last year. I understand that it is important to search for answers when things don't go as planned but sometimes they just don't. This particular team has over achieved this year.

 

Yes, nobody expected Leon to repeat 2016, but we also lost two sub .500 catchers in Hanigan and Holiday, and most expected Vaz to improve on 2016, and he did. Overall, I think expecting about the same overall catching OPS was called for, and that's what we got.

 

Yes, we should not have expected Pedey to repeat 2016, when he's been under .800 in his other 3 recent years.

 

Yes, HRam has been inconsistent and playing injured for many recent years.

 

Moreland has been the Moreland of old.

 

While expecting HRam, Pedey or Moreland to do very well or great might not have been expected, I still feel the chances all 3 did not do as well as they could have done is slightly against the odds.

 

Now, to take those odds and couple them with the fact that every young- up and coming- player has declined from 2016-- all at once-- is surprising at least and shocking at most. These are players on the upward curve or expected growth. Sure, there is the possibility that all had outlier seasons last year, and this year was a just a return to their norm.

 

Yeah, maybe there is no simple explanation. Papi's departure and lack of his team leadership and positive affects on other players has to be part of the answer, but it is doubtful it is all of it.

 

I disagree on you JBJ call. While he did have an unbelievably slow start to his career, he had gone over 900 PAs with an OPS over .830 right before the start of 2017. He's right at the start of his prime. He's down 100 points from his previous 900 PAs. He has not been "like this for years", unless you truly think he is more like the rookie JBJ than the 2015-2016 JBJ.

 

Betts and Bogey, as you pointed out, should not have had years like this. Beni's sample size was too small last year to have any expectations of improvement.

 

I've mentioned this before, but I think it is worth repeating: looking singularly at any returning Sox player, nothing looks shocking, except maybe Betts. One could expect that we might see decline from 3 or 4 of these 6 returning players: HRam, Pedey, Bogey, JBJ, Beni and Betts. It was highly improbable for all 6 to decline, and shocking to me anyways, how much they all declined.

 

Last 3 years....

.717>.866>.749 HRam (-117/+32)

.832>.835>.731 JBJ (-104/-101)

.820>.897>.795 Betts (-102/-25)

.797>.825>.760 Pedey (-65/-37)

.776>.802>.745 Bogey (-57/-21)

n/a>.835>.778 Beni (-57/ n/a)

 

As you can see, all but HRam are down from their 2015 seasons as well. To me, this is shocking and unexplainable.

 

The other positions:

 

Catcher .646> .665> .695 (The only position with returning players that improved)

3B .693> .686> .676 (Pablo out- Devers in)

DH .855> 1.045> .748 (No Papi- replaced by Moreland at 1B & HRam to DH)

 

To me, the drop of by virtually everyone but Vaz is totally unexplainable and shocking by just how much many decline by. We're not talking 10-15 points. We're talking all 6 players going down by 57 or more points. 3 of the 6 by over 100!

 

 

Edited September 30, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Still, to back next year with the same people playing and coaching may well produce the same results or worse, as some of our players are aging noticably. Guys like Young and Holt are also having tough years. Almost like an insidious disease has infected the club. When I see players taking two pitches as strikes and then swing out of the strike zone, it says that they don't have the right kind of positive thinking to do the job. There have been countless examples of this and it occurs to many players and in most games. It is difficult to believe the problem will be fixed unless moves are made.

 

Yes, get a big bat or two and yes move our poorest performers and yes consider reloating players who struggle with defense and yes try to resign our best free agents and yes, look hard at the jobs that the coaches are doing by the results they are getting.

 

Only Pedey, HRam and Young are on the wrong side of prime, and even they are just barely past peak prime. Age 32 and 33 usually does not show steep decline. I think injuries have been a factor with Pedey and HRam.

 

We have one of the youngest Sox teams in a long time. If we look at prime as being between 27-32, HRam, Pedey and Young were all just 1 year post-prime when the season began. Moreland just turned 32. Nunez just turned 30. Holt turned 29 this year. The rest are 28 or younger.

28: Leon

27: JBJ & Marrero

26: none

25: Betts, Bogey, Swihart

24: Travis

23: Beni

20: Devers

 

As you can see, the core five of this team (Betts, JBJ, Bogey, Beni & Devers) is actually pre-prime or at the very start of prime. Our catchers are far from post-prime. That makes 6 of the 8 positions looking young with 1B opening up this winter. Only 2B and DH will surely be post-prime next season.

 

Young & Davis will be gone. HRam might have just one year left. Pedey could be transitioned to DH. Even Pedey at 34 and 35 is not like he's 39 to 40. He could still have an .825+ season or two left in him.

 

 

[notin]

Only Pedey, HRam and Young are on the wrong side of prime, and even they are just barely past peak prime. Age 32 and 33 usually does not show steep decline. I think injuries have been a factor with Pedey and HRam.

 

We have one of the youngest Sox teams in a long time. If we look at prime as being between 27-32, HRam, Pedey and Young were all just 1 year post-prime when the season began. Moreland just turned 32. Nunez just turned 30. Holt turned 29 this year. The rest are 28 or younger.

28: Leon

27: JBJ & Marrero

26: none

25: Betts, Bogey, Swihart

24: Travis

23: Beni

20: Devers

 

As you can see, the core five of this team (Betts, JBJ, Bogey, Beni & Devers) is actually pre-prime or at the very start of prime. Our catchers are far from post-prime. That makes 6 of the 8 positions looking young with 1B opening up this winter. Only 2B and DH will surely be post-prime next season.

 

Young & Davis will be gone. HRam might have just one year left. Pedey could be transitioned to DH. Even Pedey at 34 and 35 is not like he's 39 to 40. He could still have an .825+ season or two left in him.

 

 

 

Another big difference has been Porcello.

 

Last year, we'd win his starts, and in all those 3-1 and 4-2 games, the offense scored enough. This year, alot of those have turned around into 5-3 and 6-4 losses, so suddenly we need more offense.

 

The addition of Sale was supposed to offset the loss of offense, but what happened was Sale basically replaced absentee David Price, making him essentially ballast. So we wound up losing our best hitter and a lot from our Cy Young pitcher from last year, and hoped to be just as good...

[moonslav59]

Another big difference has been Porcello.

 

Last year, we'd win his starts, and in all those 3-1 and 4-2 games, the offense scored enough. This year, alot of those have turned around into 5-3 and 6-4 losses, so suddenly we need more offense.

 

The addition of Sale was supposed to offset the loss of offense, but what happened was Sale basically replaced absentee David Price, making him essentially ballast. So we wound up losing our best hitter and a lot from our Cy Young pitcher from last year, and hoped to be just as good...

 

Yet, we have a better record than last year.

[devildavid]

Combine 1st base and DH last year to this year. How many RBI's are you short? Exactly 100 to this point. That's the problem.

DH big problem, 127 RBI's last year, 61 this year. From the 2 main players who do this. Ortiz and Ramirez.

 

You can't figure it that way. RBI's are dependent on getting on base and timely hitting.

[moonslav59]

You can't figure it that way. RBI's are dependent on getting on base and timely hitting.

 

The DH & 3B RBI argument may be flawed, but clearly the downturn by HRam added to the Moreland-Papi comp has to be viewed as a major factor in the offensive downturn.

 

[oldtimer]

Only Pedey, HRam and Young are on the wrong side of prime, and even they are just barely past peak prime. Age 32 and 33 usually does not show steep decline. I think injuries have been a factor with Pedey and HRam.

 

We have one of the youngest Sox teams in a long time. If we look at prime as being between 27-32, HRam, Pedey and Young were all just 1 year post-prime when the season began. Moreland just turned 32. Nunez just turned 30. Holt turned 29 this year. The rest are 28 or younger.

28: Leon

27: JBJ & Marrero

26: none

25: Betts, Bogey, Swihart

24: Travis

23: Beni

20: Devers

 

As you can see, the core five of this team (Betts, JBJ, Bogey, Beni & Devers) is actually pre-prime or at the very start of prime. Our catchers are far from post-prime. That makes 6 of the 8 positions looking young with 1B opening up this winter. Only 2B and DH will surely be post-prime next season.

 

Young & Davis will be gone. HRam might have just one year left. Pedey could be transitioned to DH. Even Pedey at 34 and 35 is not like he's 39 to 40. He could still have an .825+ season or two left in him.

 

 

 

One thing I mentioned at the start of the year is I thought Leon was too heavy. Listed at 5' 11" and 235#, I thought that might impact his play. I realize catchers can be on the heavfy side and still play well, but I still think he has let himself get too chunky. Catching him 2 days of 5 is probably better for the wear and tear on him.

[harmony]

Only Pedey, HRam and Young are on the wrong side of prime, and even they are just barely past peak prime. Age 32 and 33 usually does not show steep decline. I think injuries have been a factor with Pedey and HRam.

 

We have one of the youngest Sox teams in a long time. If we look at prime as being between 27-32, HRam, Pedey and Young were all just 1 year post-prime when the season began. Moreland just turned 32. Nunez just turned 30. Holt turned 29 this year. The rest are 28 or younger.

28: Leon

27: JBJ & Marrero

26: none

25: Betts, Bogey, Swihart

24: Travis

23: Beni

20: Devers

 

As you can see, the core five of this team (Betts, JBJ, Bogey, Beni & Devers) is actually pre-prime or at the very start of prime. Our catchers are far from post-prime. That makes 6 of the 8 positions looking young with 1B opening up this winter. Only 2B and DH will surely be post-prime next season.

 

Young & Davis will be gone. HRam might have just one year left. Pedey could be transitioned to DH. Even Pedey at 34 and 35 is not like he's 39 to 40. He could still have an .825+ season or two left in him.

I recall this exchange we had back in January:

 

I would note that FanGraphs Depth Charts project a combined 2017 WAR of 11.7 for Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager and Jean Segura, who last year combined for 20.7 fWAR. Regression is likely but the degree of regression is a topic for debate.

I would note that they project a 16.4 WAR from Betts, Pedey, JBJ & Bogey combined, when they put up a 22.5 WAR last year. All but Pedey are on the rise curve to prime.

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17790-The-Benintendi-Thread/page73

 

Through Friday's games Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager and Jean Segura had combined for 13.5 fWAR while Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Jackie Bradley and Xander Bogaerts has combined for 12.4 fWAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=11&rost=&age=&filter=&players=

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=3&rost=&age=&filter=&players=

 

Most importantly, the Red Sox have won the AL East title while the Mariners are on the postseason sidelines for the 16th straight year after posting a losing record.

 

As a side note, this year Mookie Betts and Chris Sale are the only Red Sox players who have posted a higher fWAR than Seattle catcher Mike Zunino.

[moonslav59]

As a side note, this year Mookie Betts and Chris Sale are the only Red Sox players who have posted a higher fWAR than Seattle catcher Mike Zunino.

 

Nobody projected that.

[Kimmi]

The Sox offense may not be tops in the AL, but they do rank 6th in runs/game and 5th in OBP. They are next to last in SLG. So OBP does appear to be very important for generating runs. Only one team, Texas, has a higher runs/game with a lower OBP. Would one power bat really have that big of an impact on the overall offense?

 

My man.

[Kimmi]

I'm realistic. Hell I give up Beni and whatever they want in our minor league system for Stanton. A 60 homer guy. I'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

Home runs are flashy. They do not win championships.

[Kimmi]

Another might be lofty expectations.

 

The assumption was the offense that outscored everyone by 100 runs would take a step down but still be good without Ortiz. But if removing Ortiz had a bigger impact than anyone thought, that isn't on Chili Davis.

 

And if Davis was such an inadequate hitting coach capable of destroying the entire lineup at once, how on Earth did this team outscore everyone by 100 runs last year when he was the hitting coach then, too?

 

I don't have lofty expectations, but I do think our offense is better than how they performed this year. I don't think Davis destroyed the entire line up at once, but I do think that when pretty much the entire offense is underperforming their expectations, it's fair to wonder what's going on with Chili.

 

Perhaps it's an organizational philosophy of taking a lot of pitches that isn't working for out hitters. Perhaps many of our young guys are trying to do too much with the absence of Papi. Perhaps some of the guys are trying to pull everything or are trying to go to the opposite field with everything when they should be do the other. Perhaps it's a little mechanical flaw that a hitter has picked up because he's trying to do too much.

 

Whatever the case, I think a good hitting coach would be able to talk or work the batters through these things. Not that I'm calling for Chili to be replaced, but I think it's fair to question him.

[Kimmi]

The loss of Ortiz alone does not explain the dropoff. The entire team has not performed as well on offense in 2017 as in 2016. It's as simple as that. Adding a big bat would not have raised this team's production to the 2016 level.

 

My man.

[Kimmi]

Yet, we have a better record than last year.

 

To be fair, our Pythagorean W-L was better last year.

 

That said, considering the underperformances of our offense and the injury to Price, this team has done a darn good job.

[moonslav59]

To be fair, our Pythagorean W-L was better last year.

 

That said, considering the underperformances of our offense and the injury to Price, this team has done a darn good job.

 

Not only Price.

 

We lost Wright.

 

Thornburg & Ross.

 

Others for shorter times.

 

However, I wouldn't say this season had more injuries than the norm.

[devildavid]

The DH & 3B RBI argument may be flawed, but clearly the downturn by HRam added to the Moreland-Papi comp has to be viewed as a major factor in the offensive downturn.

 

 

2016 is probably the best hitting year we will see out of Hanley. I wish he had finished the season stronger so that his trade value would go up.

[Spudboy]

I say cut Hanley loose.

 

And I will say yet again that I won't be surprised if Moreland is back.

[moonslav59]

2016 is probably the best hitting year we will see out of Hanley. I wish he had finished the season stronger so that his trade value would go up.

 

34 years old is not too old. I still think there's a chance HRam hits over .800 next year. I'm not counting on it, but it is possible. I wouldn't bet on him ending up above .750.

 

We're paying the guy, so he'll be back.

 

I hope we sign JD Martinez and Nunez. That would allow us to squeeze out HRam's PAs, if he's stinking up the place...again.

 

Nunez would also give us insurance at 2B.

 

JD gives us the legitimate clean-up we desperately need.

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Beni LF

4. Martinez DH/1B

5. Devers 3B

6. Nunez 2B/DH or HRam 1B/DH

7. Pedey 2B/DH or HRam 1B/DH

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz C

 

 

[devildavid]

34 years old is not too old. I still think there's a chance HRam hits over .800 next year. I'm not counting on it, but it is possible. I wouldn't bet on him ending up above .750.

 

We're paying the guy, so he'll be back.

 

I hope we sign JD Martinez and Nunez. That would allow us to squeeze out HRam's PAs, if he's stinking up the place...again.

 

Nunez would also give us insurance at 2B.

 

JD gives us the legitimate clean-up we desperately need.

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Beni LF

4. Martinez DH/1B

5. Devers 3B

6. Nunez 2B/DH or HRam 1B/DH

7. Pedey 2B/DH or HRam 1B/DH

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz C

 

 

 

Hanley is physically done. He needs to go. Even DH is too physically demanding a position for him. He has been injured too much and has reached the point of little to no return.

[Larry Cook]

Hanley is physically done. He needs to go. Even DH is too physically demanding a position for him. He has been injured too much and has reached the point of little to no return.

 

He had a bad shoulder from day one. Will he be healthy next year?

 

I think it affected his power this year and hopefully he gets that back for the playoffs and next year.