A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[moonslav59]

A quick look at the future and approaching or reaching "the tax":

 

After 2017, we lose:

$6.5M Young

$5.5M Moreland

$2.0M Abad

$14M Total

 

--My hope is we can replace all of these guys with players within our current system (Travis for Moreland, Devers or Swihart for Young, and several contenders for Abad's slot.) The money "saved" will pay for arb raises and leave a cushion for mid-season acquisitions. If we don't spend the money we have this year on a mid-season trade that involves a player under contract into next year, we may be able to sign a significant player (big bat?) this winter, but any long term deal at big money will hamper our ability to keep all our important players without being taxed (and possibly further penalized) heavily.

 

After 2018, we lose:

$12M Kimbrel

~$7M Pomeranz (last arb year)

~$3.5M J Kelly (last arb year)

~$2.5M R Ross (last arb year)

$25M Total

 

We will need to find replacements for some of these guys. Maybe Wright can replace Pom, Smith for Kimbrel, and Thornburg can take up the slack of losing Kelly and Ross, but the rest of the pen might be weak.

 

The real fun begins after 2019:

$22M HRam

$20.6M Porcello

$19M Pablo

$13.5M Sale

~$13.5M Bogey (last arb)

~$5.4M Thornburg

$94M Total

 

That's a lot of money. Keeping Bogey and Saleand re-signing Porcello (or the like) is certainly doable, and if Devers and Travis are filling the shoes of HRam and Pablo well enough, we should be okay until the next winter. There's no wiggle room for a mistake.

 

 

[oldtimer]

The question is, who do you sit?

 

Beni seems to be breaking out of his funk.

 

JBJ is clearly doing much better and has inexplicably been hitting lefties was better than righties so far this year.

 

I can see giving Moreland a day off for Travis, but HRam as a DH only is squeezing Young and our lefthanded-hitting OF'ers.

 

Its a tough call, especially since CC has a cutter that has caused problems for right hand hitters as well. I do think Travis could and should replace Moreland tonight. As you point out Beni has begun to hit and JBJ is also hitting the ball hard of late. Hanley is still a power threat even though his contact rate is down. The choice is among those 3 and I think we know that jbj is the best CF we have defensively so I might give Hanley the rest tonight.

[Maxbialystock]

Its a tough call, especially since CC has a cutter that has caused problems for right hand hitters as well. I do think Travis could and should replace Moreland tonight. As you point out Beni has begun to hit and JBJ is also hitting the ball hard of late. Hanley is still a power threat even though his contact rate is down. The choice is among those 3 and I think we know that jbj is the best CF we have defensively so I might give Hanley the rest tonight.

 

Good call. Travis bats 5th tonight, which means Moreland will hit if the Yankees bring a righty in and the game is close.

[moonslav59]

Its a tough call, especially since CC has a cutter that has caused problems for right hand hitters as well. I do think Travis could and should replace Moreland tonight. As you point out Beni has begun to hit and JBJ is also hitting the ball hard of late. Hanley is still a power threat even though his contact rate is down. The choice is among those 3 and I think we know that jbj is the best CF we have defensively so I might give Hanley the rest tonight.

 

I still think somehow-someway we need to get Young into the line-up whenever we face a LHP. He's that good.

 

We've only faced 10 LH'd starters so far our of 57 games. I realize CY's splits are reversed this year, but I don't expect that to continue.

 

If only Young could play 3B!

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Good call. Travis bats 5th tonight, which means Moreland will hit if the Yankees bring a righty in and the game is close.

 

They gave Beni the night off too. I guess vs a tough lefty, it might be a good idea. I'd rather sit Beni than JBJ to allow Young to bat against his ex-team mate.

 

I like batting Young 2nd, too.

 

1. Betts

2. Young

3. Bogey

4. HRam

5. Travis

6. Leon

7. Rutledge (2B)

8. Bradley

9. Marrero (3B)

 

Interesting choice at 6 and 7.

 

Our 6-9 hitters look pretty weak though.

 

I thought Pom vs Tanaka might be our hardest (match-up) battle, so it's nice to start off up one on the Skankees.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Were 35% of the way through the season and...

 

1 game behind the Yanks

 

1.5 games up on the O's for the first WC slot

 

2.5 games up on the Guardians for the 2nd WC slot.

 

I doubt the Twins win the Central, so the Guardians may not be a WC contnder anyways.

 

Not bad for a team missing Price, Wright, Smith and Thornburg for almost the whole time

[oldtimer]

They gave Beni the night off too. I guess vs a tough lefty, it might be a good idea. I'd rather sit Beni than JBJ to allow Young to bat against his ex-team mate.

 

I like batting Young 2nd, too.

 

1. Betts

2. Young

3. Bogey

4. HRam

5. Travis

6. Leon

7. Rutledge (2B)

8. Bradley

9. Marrero (3B)

 

Interesting choice at 6 and 7.

 

Our 6-9 hitters look pretty weak though.

 

I thought Pom vs Tanaka might be our hardest (match-up) battle, so it's nice to start off up one on the Skankees.

 

 

 

I think we knew the lineup has to produce among the first 5 hitters or we are dead meat tonight. Hoping for Pedey to be back tomorrow to strengthen our lineup. Whatever happens for the rest of the game, I won't criticize Farrell for trying to put his best righty lineup in.

[moonslav59]

I think we knew the lineup has to produce among the first 5 hitters or we are dead meat tonight. Hoping for Pedey to be back tomorrow to strengthen our lineup. Whatever happens for the rest of the game, I won't criticize Farrell for trying to put his best righty lineup in.

 

Agreed, altthough Rutledge got 2 hits at 2B tonight, the return of a healthy Pedey is a big gain by us.

[oldtimer]

Agreed, altthough Rutledge got 2 hits at 2B tonight, the return of a healthy Pedey is a big gain by us.

 

Yes, Rutledge got two of the 5 hits tonight. Too many weak or underperforming bats in the lineup. Once behind by 5 you knew it was over. Porcello seemed to have his good stuff although his command up was not all that good so he would have needed more run support to have any chance. It's pretty clear that we could use another big bat and will the salary pressures we currently have, I doubt we will get one this year.

[Station 13]

Agreed, altthough Rutledge got 2 hits at 2B tonight, the return of a healthy Pedey is a big gain by us.

 

he lengthens this lineup his defense doesn't go to sleep. don't know what it means for Benni, does he hit clean up again where he struggles?

[moonslav59]

he lengthens this lineup his defense doesn't go to sleep. don't know what it means for Benni, does he hit clean up again where he struggles?

 

Maybe now is the time to shake things up...

vs RHPs:

1) Beni

2) Bogey

3) Betts

4) HRam

5) Pedey

6) Moreland

7) JBJ

8) Pablo- Rutledge/Marrero

9) Vaz/Leon

 

vs LHPs:

1) Pedey

2) Bogey

3) Betts

4) HRam

5) Young LF

6) Travis

7) Beni or JBJ CF

8) Leon/Vaz

9) Rutledge/Marrero

 

[Station 13]

Maybe now is the time to shake things up...

vs RHPs:

1) Beni

2) Bogey

3) Betts

4) HRam

5) Pedey

6) Moreland

7) JBJ

8) Pablo- Rutledge/Marrero

9) Vaz/Leon

 

vs LHPs:

1) Pedey

2) Bogey

3) Betts

4) HRam

5) Young LF

6) Travis

7) Beni or JBJ CF

8) Leon/Vaz

9) Rutledge/Marrero

 

 

Xander is somebody with a high OBP and little power, that's a natural candidate to bat 1st. He also is a good base runner.

[cp176]

Yes, Rutledge got two of the 5 hits tonight. Too many weak or underperforming bats in the lineup. Once behind by 5 you knew it was over. Porcello seemed to have his good stuff although his command up was not all that good so he would have needed more run support to have any chance. It's pretty clear that we could use another big bat and will the salary pressures we currently have, I doubt we will get one this year.

 

i agree- we need that bat.

[S5Dewey]

Fast-forwarding through June and most of July, it'll be interesting to see what happens at the trade deadline if the Sox are where they are now in the standings. Do we give up yet another prospect in a trade for a big bat?

[Bellhorn04]

Fast-forwarding through June and most of July, it'll be interesting to see what happens at the trade deadline if the Sox are where they are now in the standings. Do we give up yet another prospect in a trade for a big bat?

 

First step is to consider what big bats might be available and what their contract status is.

[Slasher9]

Dave Dombrowski. count on him to continue to gut the farm....

[Bellhorn04]

Some folks will shudder (or puke) to hear it, but our next big trade might involve giving up major-league talent like JBJ or Vazquez.

[S5Dewey]

Some folks will shudder (or puke) to hear it, but our next big trade might involve giving up major-league talent like JBJ or Vazquez.

 

I've been waiting for that shoe to drop ever since those two came up. Ugh.

 

While JBJ would bring a better return, we don't have an adequate long term replacement for him.

 

I see the catching position as being the one to have the shake-up because we're deeper there. We've got Swihart in Pawtucket who, along with some other lesser players, could net us someone decent. Or if forced to part with Vaz or Leon, Swihart could step up as our backup catcher.

 

But maybe that's just wishful thinking since I've always been a big JBJ fan.

[moonslav59]

Xander is somebody with a high OBP and little power, that's a natural candidate to bat 1st. He also is a good base runner.

 

I've been calling for the low-powered Bogey to bat 2nd for years. My choice is first or second, but I went with 2nd due to Beni's speed. I'd be happy with my line-up and Bogey and Beni flipped. Beni has more power, so it's a good idea.

[moonslav59]

Some folks will shudder (or puke) to hear it, but our next big trade might involve giving up major-league talent like JBJ or Vazquez.

 

With Vaz's stock high right now, I could see him being traded, maybe as part of a bigger package, for a big bat or another starter, if ERod's full return looks doubtful.

 

The only real opening is 3B, and we'd be lookinng for a rental only, since Devers is knocking on the 2018 door.

 

I suppose we could trade Vaz and Moreland and upgrade at 1B, but teams looking to dump rentals wouldn't want Moreland. Maybe a three team deal would be needed for that.

[devildavid]

I've been calling for the low-powered Bogey to bat 2nd for years. My choice is first or second, but I went with 2nd due to Beni's speed. I'd be happy with my line-up and Bogey and Beni flipped. Beni has more power, so it's a good idea.

 

I think Bogey has great speed and would be ideal at leadoff.

Edited June 8, 2017 by devildavid

[mvp 78]

Some folks will shudder (or puke) to hear it, but our next big trade might involve giving up major-league talent like JBJ or Vazquez.

 

I think Vazquez is replaceable. Him being traded wouldn't bother me. If JBJ is moved, it's so that it will be easier to sign Mookie and Xander. If they trade JBJ and don't sign the other B's, I'll be getting my pitchfork out.

[oldtimer]

I think Vazquez is replaceable. Him being traded wouldn't bother me. If JBJ is moved, it's so that it will be easier to sign Mookie and Xander. If they trade JBJ and don't sign the other B's, I'll be getting my pitchfork out.

 

If we trade a catcher, I would prefer it to be Leon. I see him as having difficulty lasting for very long as a ML catcher due to his weight and limited athleticism, while some teams might be willing to go with him to fill a need. If we trade for a player it will need to involved a pickup at 3rd base. The Yankees are also in need at 3rd, at least for this year, and will be strong competition there for us. I think the Sox will be somewhat gun shy after the big money laid out for non-performers and underperformers. Craig, Catillo, Sandoval and to some extent, even Rameriz all fit into that category. I owuld be gun shy about adding high priced talent unless both fairly young and also really extremely solid.

[moonslav59]

I think Bogey has great speed an would be ideal at leadoff.

 

I'm not sure about "great", but he'd be fine with his speed as a leadoff hitter.

 

He's never been known as a base stealer, but good base running involves more than that.

 

Minors: 17 SB/ 16 CS

MLB: 34 SB/ 9 CS

[moonslav59]

If we trade a catcher, I would prefer it to be Leon. I see him as having difficulty lasting for very long as a ML catcher due to his weight and limited athleticism, while some teams might be willing to go with him to fill a need. If we trade for a player it will need to involved a pickup at 3rd base. The Yankees are also in need at 3rd, at least for this year, and will be strong competition there for us. I think the Sox will be somewhat gun shy after the big money laid out for non-performers and underperformers. Craig, Catillo, Sandoval and to some extent, even Rameriz all fit into that category. I owuld be gun shy about adding high priced talent unless both fairly young and also really extremely solid.

 

We'd get more for Vaz.

 

I doubt we trade for a player with a big contract beyond this year or next. We have too tight a window as it is. We have some salary space this year, and maybe a little next year, if Devers and/or Travis can fill in for losing Moreland and Young.

[cp176]

Dave Dombrowski. count on him to continue to gut the farm....

 

Let's go DD - get after it - win yesterday, win today, win tomorrow!

[moonslav59]

I feel like Devers, Travis and Groome are still in the system for a reason. Those are the three positions we need or soon will need replacements.

 

We've lost our trade bait with Holt and/or Hernandez.

 

What's left?

 

A catcher from the Swihart, Vaz and Leon trio?

 

Ockimey, Chavis, Dalbec and others beyond our top 3 are not the types of players that will bring back a meaningful bounty.

 

My guess is, we go after a 2 month rental with a relatively high salary. Since we will only be on the hook for 1/3 of the salary, we can probably take on just about anyone's salary and still stay under the limit and reset to zero the tax going forward.

 

Some possibilities:

 

3B

Adrian Beltre (has been out injured) $18M in 2017 and $18M in 2018

Mike Moustakes .271 15 32 (.850 OPS) $11M/ 1 yr

Todd Frazier .193 9 26 (.707 OPS) $12M/ 1 yr

Trevor Plouffe .216 7 14 (.643 OPS) $5.25M/ 1 yr

Eduardo Nunez .297 4 22 (.733 OPS) $4.2M/ 1 yr

 

1B

Yonder Alonso .295 16 34 (1.049) $4M/1 yr

Eric Hosmer .309 5 21 (.808 OPS) $12.25M/ 1 yr

Jose Abreu .278 10 32 (.803 OPS) $10.8M + 2 arbs

 

SP

Yu Darvish 5-4 3.18 $11M/1 yr

Jose Quintana 2-7 5.30 $7M, $8.9M 2018 & $10.5M in 2019

Jason Vargas 8-3 2.18 $8M/ 1 yr

J Hellickson 5-3 4.50 $17.2M/ 1 yr

Sonny Gray 2-2 4.57 $3.75M with 2 arb years left

Matt Cain 3-5 4.87 $20M with $7.5M buyout on $21M 2018 contract

Jamie Shields could lessen the return in trade needed to get another player, but his contract would kill our 2018 budget. He is owed $21M this year, $21M in 2019 and has a $2M buyout for $2020.

 

C

Jonathan Lucroy .256 3 13 (.669 OPS) $5.25M/ 1 yr

 

RP

D Robertson 3-2 3.38 (0.891 WHIP) $12M 2017 & $13M 2018

A Reed 0-2 2.93 $7.75M/ 1 yr

 

[Station 13]

I think Bogey has great speed and would be ideal at leadoff.

 

You don't really great speed as a lead off hitter. The OBP is more important and excellent instinct on the bases, both which describes bogaerts.

[Kimmi]

Some folks will shudder (or puke) to hear it, but our next big trade might involve giving up major-league talent like JBJ or Vazquez.

 

I could see giving up one of our catchers (provided Swihart is is healthy), but trading JBJ would make no sense to me. That would be creating a hole to fill another.

[Kimmi]

You don't really great speed as a lead off hitter. The OBP is more important and excellent instinct on the bases, both which describes bogaerts.

 

My man.