A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[Maxbialystock]

i say i love when Pom Pom shuts me up. fabulous start last night for sure. breaking ball was devastating.

 

Exactly what I was thinking during that game. I normally treat him as #1 on the FBI UNWANTED list and was delighted when he proved me wrong for the second game in a row. A couple times he shut the Chisox down when they had guys on third--gritty, which is an adjective I normally would never apply to him.

[Maxbialystock]

Another bat is needed. Take heed DD. .

 

I'm sorry, but I will have to discount that statement given it's coming from someone self-named a700hitter. If the Sox had the proverbial (Yankees, I think) Murderers Row, you would likely be saying, "if these guys are so good, why did Carl Hubbell strike them out all in a row? We need more hitting."

 

Beyond question there is something wrong with this lineup, and it ain't the batting order. Ortiz left a bigger hole than anyone anticipated. Without him, just about all the guys in the lineup with him last year are hitting worse this year: Pedroia, HanRam, Betts, JBJ, 3b. But not Bogie, whose OPS is right now 45 points higher. So you take that and then pile on the huge difference in OPS, etc between Ortiz and Moreland, the guy who actually replaced him in the lineup because HanRam was in the lineup last year, and you have a big swing in hitting.

[mvp 78]

I'm sorry, but I will have to discount that statement given it's coming from someone self-named a700hitter. If the Sox had the proverbial (Yankees, I think) Murderers Row, you would likely be saying, "if these guys are so good, why did Carl Hubbell strike them out all in a row? We need more hitting."

 

Beyond question there is something wrong with this lineup, and it ain't the batting order. Ortiz left a bigger hole than anyone anticipated. Without him, just about all the guys in the lineup with him last year are hitting worse this year: Pedroia, HanRam, Betts, JBJ, 3b. But not Bogie, whose OPS is right now 45 points higher. So you take that and then pile on the huge difference in OPS, etc between Ortiz and Moreland, the guy who actually replaced him in the lineup because HanRam was in the lineup last year, and you have a big swing in hitting.

 

Many people on here were very concerned about the loss of Papi.

[oldtimer]

Many people on here were very concerned about the loss of Papi.

 

Yes, and we had hopes for Beni, which haven't materialized in the past month but may still come back shortly. Farrell has to put players where they can succeed defensively and then has to find a way to work his hotter bats into the lineup.

[moonslav59]

Many people on here were very concerned about the loss of Papi.

 

And, nobody was unconcerned about his loss.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com released their June rankings.

1-20: http://www.soxprospects.com/index.html

 

21-60: http://www.soxprospects.com/moreprospects.htm

 

With Beni now a graduated prospect, here's a list of players who moved up more than 1 slot:

+6 Ockimey (10>4)

+6 Lakins (12>6)

+4 Chavis (11>7)

+4 Johnson (13>9)

+3 Mata (16>13)

+2 Chatham (11>7)

 

+21 J Tobias (47>26)

+17 A Maddox (40>23)

+15 D Mars (44>29)

+14 Callahan (33>19)

+10 A Tavarez (28>18)

+8 J Beeks (23>15)

+7 D Hernandez (21>14)

+6 Nogosek (26>20)

 

Who moved down?

 

-8 R Raudes (8>16)

-3 Dalbec (5>8)

-1 Longhi (9>10)

 

-13 Cosart (15>28)

-9 Ysla (18>27)

-8 Bautista (22>30)

Edited June 5, 2017 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

Another loss to Baltimore against a pitcher who got torched by Houston. It's the hitting or lack there of that is the problem. Too many are just holes in the lineup right now, and it is hard to win with only a couple of guys hiitting. I guess it was hard to use Young and Travis but at least they might make contact. The time to act is here.

[moonslav59]

Two games ago, people were talking like we were looking good.

 

It's a long season.

 

It's just two games.

 

Our bats will come alive... and then some.

 

Take two deep breaths.

[cp176]

repeat repeat repeat - We need another "real" bat in the order. some of us have felt this way for well over a year now. Most of our guys really don't even look like like hitters.

[Bellhorn04]

Two games ago, people were talking like we were looking good.

 

It's a long season.

 

It's just two games.

 

Our bats will come alive... and then some.

 

I agree you with about the long season. But I don't think the offense is going to magically improve. I think it is what it we've seen. It's a sporadic, middle-of-the-pack offense.

[Maxbialystock]

Two games ago, people were talking like we were looking good.

 

It's a long season.

 

It's just two games.

 

Our bats will come alive... and then some.

 

Take two deep breaths.

 

Last year at this point--54 games, 1/3 of the season--we were 10 games above .500.

 

More and more it appears that the absence of Ortiz has brought everyone--except maybe Bogaerts, whose OPS is actually up--down from last year's scoring machine. Homers are way down and GIDP's are up. It would appear that the Sox/Bill James offensive philosophy--don't bunt, don't steal, don't hit and run, take lots of pitches but no chances, etc--requires at least one stud in the lineup and preferably two. Earl Weaver believed in great pitching and the 3 run dinger, and we are trending toward the former, but away from the latter.

 

Marrero with his OPS of .536 kept the 3b job simply because he can field, which 3 others, including Sandoval, apparently can't do.

 

I agree Benintendi will probably get better, ditto Betts and maybe JBJ. But Ramirez? Pedroia? Leon? Moreland? 3b?

[Emp9]

I agree you with about the long season. But I don't think the offense is going to magically improve. I think it is what it we've seen. It's a sporadic, middle-of-the-pack offense.

 

Not magically improve, but career norms wouldn't be considered magic i don't think.

[S5Dewey]

I agree you with about the long season. But I don't think the offense is going to magically improve. I think it is what it we've seen. It's a sporadic, middle-of-the-pack offense.

 

IMO our problems this year are three-fold.

 

I wasn't expecting to outscore our opponents by 100 runs this year but I was expecting better than middle of the pack offense. I thought we'd be in the top 2-3.

 

I also expected that with the additions to our pitching staff that the staff's ERA would be significantly better this year, but it's not.

 

I certainly did not expect that our defense would be as porous as it's been, even though most of those errors have been at 3B. We're currently 3 games back and IMO we've pissed away enough games with our errors at 3B to make up those three games.

 

This team has flaws, there's no doubt about it, but IMO if we could solidify that 3B position both offensively and defensively those other flaws wouldn't be as significant.

[Spudboy]

Two games ago, people were talking like we were looking good.

 

It's a long season.

 

It's just two games.

 

Our bats will come alive... and then some.

 

Take two deep breaths.

 

Yeah someone will flick that toggle switch and the Sox offense will leave the AL as scorched Earth.

 

This is an average team. An over-paid and over-rated average team.

[Spudboy]

I agree you with about the long season. But I don't think the offense is going to magically improve. I think it is what it we've seen. It's a sporadic, middle-of-the-pack offense.

 

A more polite and articulate way of saying what I believe.

[Bellhorn04]

Not magically improve, but career norms wouldn't be considered magic i don't think.

 

Career norms for who though?

[moonslav59]

I agree you with about the long season. But I don't think the offense is going to magically improve. I think it is what it we've seen. It's a sporadic, middle-of-the-pack offense.

 

We have a few historically mid-late season hitters on this team, such as Betts & JBJ.

 

I think we have been fortunate that Moreland & our catchers have hit well, so far, and maybe expecting them to continue is too much to ask. Them dropping might out weigh the expected improvement from Betts & JBJ and possibly others like Beni, Pablo and Young.

 

Pedey & HRam's health is crucial to any turn-around this offense might have. So far, it looks like some other teams have juggernaut offenses. the Astros look frightening! However, I still think our offense is much better than "middle-of-the-pack". I'll be shocked, if we don't finish in the top 10 in runs scored, and I still think we'll finish top 5 or 6.

 

Yeah, it hurts losing Papi. It's hard to imagine a way for us to win without a big slugger (or two). We haven't done it in my lifetime, but other teams have. Maybe we're locked into a mindset that just can't imagine any other way to win than by having super-stud hitters. However, Red Sox history is cluttered with "lost seasons" full of top hitting teams. The only times we ever seemed to win was when we had two stud pitchers: Pedro-Schilling, Schilling-Beckett and Lester-Lackey. Now we have 3: Sale-Price-Porcello. Maybe that's not going to be enough, but I think we should keep our minds open to the idea that there are other ways of winning rings.

 

We're only 4 runs away from top 10 right now and 19 runs away from top 5. We have some very good hitter. Out of the 322 hitters with 300+ PAs from 2016 to 2017, here's how we stand:

 

We lost the second best OPS guy in Papi at 1.021.

 

#24 Betts .876

#46 HRam .840

#66 JBJ .821

#81 Bogey .812

#86 Young .810

#89 Pedey .809

 

While I'd rather see more hitters in the top 30 or top 10, itt's pretty nice having 6 guys in the top 90. With 30 teams in the league, the average is 3 per team.

 

We also have Leon at #102 (.795) which is 10th best among catchers with 300+ PAs.

 

Beni is at #170 (.755) and Moreland is at #180 (.751).

 

I think there is good reason to be optimistic.

 

I get the argument that Papi probably helped hitters around him in the line up do better, but I still think some of our good hitters will turn things around.

 

Only Bogey and Vaz are having better OPS seasons than last year. I don't expect that to continue.

 

2016>2017

.845>.670 SLeon -.175

.835>.712 Beni -.123

.850>.734 Young -.116

.866>.749 HRam -.115

.897> .809 Betts -.098

.825>.749 Pedey -.076

.835>.763 J.B.Jr -.072

 

(Note: Papi 1.021 > Moreland .828 is -.193)

 

Do we really expect all these guys to continue having big drop-off years all at the same time?

 

The plusses:

.585>.845 Vaz +.340

.802>.845 Bogey +.043

 

(Note: Shaw .726 to Pablo .718 is just -.008)

 

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I see plenty of room for significant improvement by several players on this team. I expect improvement.

 

I could be wrong, but I don't think we need massive improvements on our offense, if our rotation can stay healthy, and we get back a powerful C Smith or Thornburg by playoff time.

 

[moonslav59]

I wasn't expecting to outscore our opponents by 100 runs this year but I was expecting better than middle of the pack offense. I thought we'd be in the top 2-3.

 

We're just 19 runs from top 5 with about 2/3 a season to go.

 

 

I also expected that with the additions to our pitching staff that the staff's ERA would be significantly better this year, but it's not.

 

If we can keep our rotation healthy and have just one of CSmith or Thornburg return at top form, I think our end of season staff will be as strong as ever. That could be too big of an if, but it's certainly possible.

 

I certainly did not expect that our defense would be as porous as it's been, even though most of those errors have been at 3B. We're currently 3 games back and IMO we've pissed away enough games with our errors at 3B to make up those three games.

 

I thought our defense would be slightly improved this year:

+ at 1B, C and LF

maybe a better year at SS

- at 3B.

 

Our defense has looked awful.

[moonslav59]

Yeah someone will flick that toggle switch and the Sox offense will leave the AL as scorched Earth.

 

This is an average team. An over-paid and over-rated average team.

 

I never even implied "scorched earth", but top 5 or 6 is very reasonable.

[moonslav59]

Career norms for who though?

 

Maybe not "career norms" as guys like JBJ and Bogey have career numbers hampered by poor early seasons in their short careers, but expecting some of our hitters to just do as well as 2016 is not a stretch, especially when you look at several hitters on the up side of the bell curve of prime hitting (Betts/Bogey/Beni/Vaz) and others still within their prime years (JBJ, HRam/Pedey/Pablo/Young/Leon).

 

We really have no hitters over 33 years old. There is no reason to expect a massive decline from 2016 to 2017 from the remaining players. The loss of Papi's "protection" can only account for so much.

[Bellhorn04]

There's no way of knowing what to expect from Beni the rest of the way. HRam and Sandoval are huge question marks because of their nonstop health issues as well as possible decline of skills.

 

We've had a few guys perform better than expected-Bogey, Moreland and the catchers.

 

We really shouldn't be too optimistic about improvement IMO.

[moonslav59]

There's no way of knowing what to expect from Beni the rest of the way. HRam and Sandoval are huge question marks because of their nonstop health issues as well as possible decline of skills.

 

We've had a few guys perform better than expected-Bogey, Moreland and the catchers.

 

We really shouldn't be too optimistic about improvement IMO.

 

I expected Bogey to improve. Most players continue to improve until they reach age 28 to 31 or so.

 

I also expected Betts and JBJ to improve for the same reasons.

 

Injuries and decline can be an issue for guys like HRam, Pablo & Pedey, and their ages indicate they are not on the upswing, but all are sill within their prime window and could also reasonably be at the age where they could have had a career best season.

 

I am expecting a significant improvement over our first 53 games. There's still more than two-thirds of the season remaining. Warm weather. Plaayers settling in and adjusting to the loss of the "great protector" (Papi).

 

I may be overly optimistic, but I think, based on seasonal trends, age bell curves and despite the recent two game sample size, the fact that our OPS has been over .800 the last 4 weeks- a sign of improvement. (It was under .740 prior to the last 4 weeks.)

[a700hitter]

I expected Bogey to improve. Most players continue to improve until they reach age 28 to 31 or so.

 

I also expected Betts and JBJ to improve for the same reasons.

 

Injuries and decline can be an issue for guys like HRam, Pablo & Pedey, and their ages indicate they are not on the upswing, but all are sill within their prime window and could also reasonably be at the age where they could have had a career best season.

 

I am expecting a significant improvement over our first 53 games. There's still more than two-thirds of the season remaining. Warm weather. Plaayers settling in and adjusting to the loss of the "great protector" (Papi).

 

I may be overly optimistic, but I think, based on seasonal trends, age bell curves and despite the recent two game sample size, the fact that our OPS has been over .800 the last 4 weeks- a sign of improvement. (It was under .740 prior to the last 4 weeks.)

Betts didn't leave much room for improvement. What did you expect 35 HRs and 130 RBI and 30 SB each year?

[Bellhorn04]

I am expecting a significant improvement over our first 53 games. There's still more than two-thirds of the season remaining. Warm weather. Plaayers settling in and adjusting to the loss of the "great protector" (Papi).

 

As someone else pointed out, though, if warm weather makes hitters better we'll be giving up more runs too.

[Station 13]

As someone else pointed out, though, if warm weather makes hitters better we'll be giving up more runs too.

 

Pss it gets cold in September, and OCTOBER.

[a700hitter]

As someone else pointed out, though, if warm weather makes hitters better we'll be giving up more runs too.

Good point. It seems that the Oriole hitters are enjoying the warmer weather, and our fellas think it is still April.

[dustcover]

"You are what you're record says you are!"

[Kimmi]

The Sox were tied for second in runs scored during the month of May, behind only the red hot Astros. If the team can stay healthy, I don't see any reason why they can't continue being one of the top run scoring teams.

[a700hitter]

"You are what you're record says you are!"

Sir, that record has Enigma written all over it.

[dustcover]

Sir, that record has Enigma written all over it.

 

Not so puzzling. Pitching has been inconsistent, absence of power in the middle of the lineup, defense has been 'iffy' particularly at 3B, and team seems to lack 'mojo'.