A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[oldtimer]

More thoughts on Hanley: I posted before that I thought Hanley was trying to do too much, thinking that he had to be THE MAN since Ortiz is not longer in the line up. He looks to be swinging for the fences in every at bat. He has also become pull happy, which supports the idea that he's trying to do too much.[/quote

 

I would like to see Betts pull more and Hanley to pull less. Betts has been hitting a lot of shots straight away but hasn't the power to get most balls out. Hanley does, but is not hitting like I would have expected. Who would have thought that Beni would be leading the team in HRs at this juncture?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I agree that the yankee moves have been smart. Our smart moves recently have been Kimbrel, Sale and Moreland.

 

I don't see a lot of similarities, though. Cashman gave up basically nothing for Chapman, DD, Castro, and Hicks. Dombrowski gave up the best prospect in the game and a top pitching prospect for Sale. Dombrowski gave up a top OF prospect for Kimbrel.

 

In other words, where is the Red Sox version of S.Castro, a player Dombrowski acquired for basically nothing and got some high WAR seasons out of him?

 

Actually, I guess Moreland would be our best example of that (albeit through free agency) and Dombrowski does deserve credit for signing him.

Edited June 13, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Spudboy]

Rutledge and Marrero are not the answer. Even a healthy Holt of Hernandez were not great options for a long term 3Bman.

 

As bad as Pablo has looked, the fact that he is in better shape than maybe even when with SF, I still think he represents our best hope for having a decent FAT 3Bman. It's a sad reality, but until Devers is given a shot, I'm not for DFA'ing Pablo right now (as a Globe writer called for today).

 

Rutledge has looked good recently, but he's at best a good back-up.

 

 

 

Fixed that for you.

[S5Dewey]

More thoughts on Hanley: I posted before that I thought Hanley was trying to do too much, thinking that he had to be THE MAN since Ortiz is not longer in the line up. He looks to be swinging for the fences in every at bat. He has also become pull happy, which supports the idea that he's trying to do too much.

 

I'm now wondering if Hanley's problems are coming from his being the DH. Is it possible he's not 'in the game' enough as a DH to be effective there?

[moonslav59]

Big hits by Pedey and Pablito!

 

Looks like Mookie is heating up as usual this time of year.

 

Maybe a big emotional win like this will light the fire that seems to be missing these days.

[a700hitter]

fixed that for you.

lol!

[moonslav59]

So, Mookie's OPS goes up 30 points in one game (.807 to .837).

 

Beni's OPS creeps towards .800 (up to .769).

 

Porcello remains a huge question mark.

 

The pen carried us... again!

 

5 batters got on base 2 or more times, and another hit the big game tying HR.

 

Pablo got a big hit. The "hope" flickers....

 

We're 14 and 7 in our last 21 games.

 

Keep it up!!!

[mvp 78]

We're 14 and 7 in our last 21 games.

 

Team has been much better since Pablo came back. Not a coincidence.

[moonslav59]

Team has been much better since Pablo came back. Not a coincidence.

 

Maybe Pablito is like Kevin Millar or Ryan Dempster.

[mvp 78]

Maybe Pablito is like Kevin Millar or Ryan Dempster.

 

Millar and Dempster were two fine professional players.

[devildavid]

So, Mookie's OPS goes up 30 points in one game (.807 to .837).

 

Beni's OPS creeps towards .800 (up to .769).

 

Porcello remains a huge question mark.

 

The pen carried us... again!

 

5 batters got on base 2 or more times, and another hit the big game tying HR.

 

Pablo got a big hit. The "hope" flickers....

 

We're 14 and 7 in our last 21 games.

 

Keep it up!!!

 

Unfortunately, this is the Porcello I thought he was when he came to the Sox. I gave him praise in 2016 and hoped he had moved to a higher level. But it appears it could have been a fluke, as he he is back to the very hittable pitcher he has been for most of his career. Right now starting pitching has become a weak point. Let's hope it doesn't stay that way. Porcello needs to improve and I hope Price can get in the groove after a few more starts.

[moonslav59]

Millar and Dempster were two fine professional players.

 

...and both had that unquantifiable "clubhouse value" the Sox apparently so sorely need.

[moonslav59]

Unfortunately, this is the Porcello I thought he was when he came to the Sox. I gave him praise in 2016 and hoped he had moved to a higher level. But it appears it could have been a fluke, as he he is back to the very hittable pitcher he has been for most of his career. Right now starting pitching has become a weak point. Let's hope it doesn't stay that way. Porcello needs to improve and I hope Price can get in the groove after a few more starts.

 

His 2015 and 2017 seasons are worse than the pitcher he was when we got him.

[moonslav59]

Chavis went 3 for 3 with another HR last night.

 

That's 12 at home ( a season record for such a small park, and they're just about at the half way point!.)

 

Is it time to move Devers to AAA and Chavis to AA?

[devildavid]

His 2015 and 2017 seasons are worse than the pitcher he was when we got him.

 

Maybe so, but not by all that much. He always gave up a lot of hits. He is one of two players who won me over last season but I'm losing faith in a bit this season. Hanley is the other one. Maybe both of them will heat up as the summer progresses.

[Slasher9]

Fixed that for you.

 

And I know I'm alone on this ship, but Pablo needs a longer look.

 

NOT ALONE. i'll be your huckleberry....

 

[mvp 78]

Chavis went 3 for 3 with another HR last night.

 

That's 12 at home ( a season record for such a small park, and they're just about at the half way point!.)

 

Is it time to move Devers to AAA and Chavis to AA?

 

No, because CHAVIS CAN'T PLAY THE FIELD. You can move Chavis to AA and have him continue to DH.

[moonslav59]

Maybe so, but not by all that much. He always gave up a lot of hits. He is one of two players who won me over last season but I'm losing faith in a bit this season. Hanley is the other one. Maybe both of them will heat up as the summer progresses.

 

Let's hope so.

 

On Porcello, agreed, he's always had a high WHIP driven by more hits allowed, but 1.51 (2017) and 1.36 (2015) are both higher than his Detroit numbers which were pre-prime years.

 

Porcello's WAR numbers:

2009: 1.3

2010: 1.7

2011: 2.2

2012: 2.8

2013: 2.9

2014: 2.8 (pretty steady around 2.8 entering prime years)

 

with Boston:

2015: 1.7

2016: 5.2

2017: 1.4 (surprisingly high)

[mvp 78]

Porcello's FIP is at his career average. I think he's been ok and has just given up a few too many long balls. He hasn't been the groundball pitcher he once was, but his k/9 and BB/9 are looking pretty good.

 

I'm not sure it's time to hit the panic button on him just yet. He's fine as a #3 starter.

[moonslav59]

No, because CHAVIS CAN'T PLAY THE FIELD. You can move Chavis to AA and have him continue to DH.

 

Moncada couldn't feidl and he was promoted to AA then MLB in the blink of an eye.

 

He has started 171 games at 3B in the minors.

 

If he's that bad, keep him at Salem, and let him learn 1B. I know he's 5-10 or 5-11, but if he can't play 3B, then what?

 

Also, can't a player learn defense at AA? I thought thatw aqs why Devers isn't in AAA.

 

[moonslav59]

Porcello's FIP is at his career average. I think he's been ok and has just given up a few too many long balls. He hasn't been the groundball pitcher he once was, but his k/9 and BB/9 are looking pretty good.

 

I'm not sure it's time to hit the panic button on him just yet. He's fine as a #3 starter.

 

I've never been abig fan if FIP and xFIP, but you're right, those numbers are very similar as are his ERA- and ERA+ numbers.

[Station 13]

Porcello is a 2nd half pitcher (in both 15 and 16). Hopefully he is that starting now.

[moonslav59]

Porcello is a 2nd half pitcher (in both 15 and 16). Hopefully he is that starting now.

 

Whole career, too.

 

1st Half/2nd Half

 

ERA 4.58/3.78

WHIP 1.39/1.23

OPS .773/.704

K/BB 2.81/3.48

[mvp 78]

Moncada couldn't feidl and he was promoted to AA then MLB in the blink of an eye.

 

He has started 171 games at 3B in the minors.

 

If he's that bad, keep him at Salem, and let him learn 1B. I know he's 5-10 or 5-11, but if he can't play 3B, then what?

 

Also, can't a player learn defense at AA? I thought thatw aqs why Devers isn't in AAA.

 

 

Chavis' glove is terrible. There are also some injury concerns that may force him to LF. Right now, he's the worst defensive 3B in the organization.

 

At this point, I'm not sure why Devers is still in AA. He should be in AAA no matter what they think about Chavis. I'm not sure the current FO believes AAA is a necessary step anymore. Maybe they are keeping him in AA until they figure out if Pablo can play the entire season?

[mvp 78]

And not to go on too much of a tangent with Moncada and Kopech, but Kopech is still struggling to find the k zone and Moncada still k's a ton and can't field. Neither developed much over the past 6 months.

[moonslav59]

Chavis' glove is terrible. There are also some injury concerns that may force him to LF. Right now, he's the worst defensive 3B in the organization.

 

At this point, I'm not sure why Devers is still in AA. He should be in AAA no matter what they think about Chavis. I'm not sure the current FO believes AAA is a necessary step anymore. Maybe they are keeping him in AA until they figure out if Pablo can play the entire season?

 

Maybe they still see Matt Dominquez as the next guy in line for ML 3B depth.

[mvp 78]

Maybe they still see Matt Dominquez as the next guy in line for ML 3B depth.

 

I hope not.

[Maxbialystock]

Whole career, too.

 

1st Half/2nd Half

 

ERA 4.58/3.78

WHIP 1.39/1.23

OPS .773/.704

K/BB 2.81/3.48

 

Meh. What I'm seeing is a guy with control issues. Good repertoire, good fastball speed, but can't seem to place the ball where it will do the most good. Last night his strike percentage was 72%, which is excellent. But what I'm talking about is putting the ball where it can be hit, but not solidly. Last night I didn't see, for example, a lot of pitches low in the strike zone.

[Spudboy]

Meh. What I'm seeing is a guy with control issues. Good repertoire, good fastball speed, but can't seem to place the ball where it will do the most good. Last night his strike percentage was 72%, which is excellent. But what I'm talking about is putting the ball where it can be hit, but not solidly. Last night I didn't see, for example, a lot of pitches low in the strike zone.

 

Yup. Not commanding pitches can lead to hits and runs.

[Kimmi]

You're not alone. It seems like the team just gave up on him this year once he started making a couple errors. I mean the guy is clearly trying, based on how hard he worked this winter. There's such a short leash on him. Granted, Rutledge has filled in beautifully. but he definitely shouldn't just be an afterthought.

 

Agreed. Good post Thunder.