A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[S5Dewey]

I'm with Moon on this.

 

1) I have no doubt he's a great guy. And baseball and health are two different issures. HE NEEDS TO QUIT PLAYING COMPLETELY UNTIL HE'S FULLY RECOVERED. I read that he's still going to take BP, infield, etc. Just not play competitively. I believe that's ********. He needs to get better. You can't f*** around with head injury. I don't think anyone wants Holt to be suffering. Just get him well. Jesus, he's still a young kid. His long term health is more important than anything else. The lights, the noise during games, none of that can be good for his recovery.

 

2) I just think he's a mediocre player. Just because he can play 1B doesn't mean I want him as Sox 1B. Sam Travis is better. Just because he can play OF doesn't mean I want him in OF. He's not the 2nd option, long term at any position. Geez I like the guy. We are strictly talking about baseball talent.

 

I agree with everything here. Point #1 is spot-on. Whether he can play baseball or not is beside the point. He's a human being and his personal health is the most important thing. If he can come back and play ball, all the better.

 

Now, assuming he comes back, I wouldn't be so fast to trade him. His versatility makes him valuable to everyone, including the Red Sox. When utilized properly he's the 5th OF as well as the UIF. He can sub in literally anyplace other than P or C - and the jury is still out on those positions. (Personally I wanted to see him pitch in a situation where the Sox had to use a position player, but that's beside the point). If you want to say that he's not as good as our backup OF - you're right. But IMO when healthy he's as good as our UIF and more versatile.

 

Yeah, we can probably get something "good" for him, but is that player we're going to get going to help the team as much as having a player with his versatility?

[moonslav59]

Assuming Holt comes back and looks healthy, I doubt trading him brings nearly as much in return as we could have gotten 1-2 years ago. That being said, I just don't see him as the number one back-up at any position on this team. However, with Marco on the DL, and Rutledge and Marrero as out current Pablo subs, keeping Holt probably makes sense until Marco returns (2018).

 

[Spudboy]

My guess is that Holt is done.

 

Which sucks big time.

 

I know he was not a world beater at any position but he was a gem for this team if you look at things objectively.

 

He allowed greater flexibility on the 25 man and that rarely happens.

 

Now we have three guys to replace him. Think about that.

[Bellhorn04]

I wouldn't count Holt out just yet.

 

Sidney Crosby had severe concussion issues that looked like they might end his career, and look at how he's come back.

[Jasonbay44]

I wouldn't count Holt out just yet.

 

Sidney Crosby had severe concussion issues that looked like they might end his career, and look at how he's come back.

 

I believe I heard Holt's migraine issues are similar to Percy Harvins, and Harvin has attempted numerous comebacks and just can't cut it. I unfortunately fear Holts career could be done.

[moonslav59]

My guess is that Holt is done.

 

Which sucks big time.

 

I know he was not a world beater at any position but he was a gem for this team if you look at things objectively.

 

He allowed greater flexibility on the 25 man and that rarely happens.

 

Now we have three guys to replace him. Think about that.

 

Now that HRam is a FT DH only (like Papi pretty much was), we're back to square one. With Marco out all year, it only adds to the depth issues.

 

Yes, having a versatile player like Holt makes it easier for a manager to PH and make substitutions. That has high value.

 

However, I do think that while Holt was our best option as a sub at multiple positions in the past, that became no longer true over the past year or so... at least until Marco went down injured.

 

My 100% healthy depth chart:

 

SS (Bogey)

1. Marco

2. Marrero

3. Holt

 

3B (Pablo)

1. Marco-Rutledge platoon

3. Holt (Devers?)

4. Marrero

 

2B (Pedey)

1. Marco

2. Holt

3. Rutledge

 

1B (Moreland-HRam)

2. Travis

3. (Swihart?)

4. Holt

 

LF (Beni)

1. Young

2. Selsky

3. Holt

 

CF/RF (JBJ/Betts)

1. Young to LF and Beni moves to CF/RF

2. Selsky

3. Holt

 

Versatility is a great thing, but you have to be good enough to be the best sub on the team at at least one or two positions to be a super sub, in my opinion.

[Hitch]

I've been saying coulda, shoulda, woulda since before he was even an allstar.

 

I realise this, however, you are now using his health issues as another reason we should have traded him. Which is just a bit s***, if you ask me.

[moonslav59]

I realise this, however, you are now using his health issues as another reason we should have traded him. Which is just a bit s***, if you ask me.

 

I don't see it that way, but I can see how it can be viewed that way.

 

I feel bad for Holt. I hope he recovers and can go on to have a decent career.

 

I'm not jumping on Holt's injury as some way of showing I was right. One could easily point to the HRam and Marco injuries as proof that I was dead wrong, and the need for a healthy Holt is as strong as ever.

[Wade Boggs]

I wouldn't count Holt out just yet.

 

Sidney Crosby had severe concussion issues that looked like they might end his career, and look at how he's come back.

 

I might count him out coming back and being productive, he can come back, what will he look like is another story.

[Kimmi]

I was never on the 'trade Holt' bandwagon and still am not.

 

I never viewed Holt as a starter, which many here did, but as a super utility guy, he was invaluable to the team. Invaluable, IMO, in ways that go beyond what the numbers will show.

 

His recovery right now goes beyond baseball, and is more about his everyday life. I wish him the best.

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS last 28 days:

 

.968 Young (Hard to play him now that HRam is the FT DH.)

.924 Bogey (Nice to see XB keeping his OBP over .400.)

.920 Leon (Looks like he's a streaky hitter with enough hot streaks to stay.)

.863 HRam (We need this guy to stay over .850.)

.861 Pedey (Came out of his funk.)

.836 Moreland (Staying consistently good at the plate.)

.833 Betts (I expect him to get red hot once the weather warms up.)

.757 JBJ (Better than sub .600.)

.710 Vaz (Has slipped some, but over .700 is great!)

.693 Rutledge (Good enough.)

.624 Beni (I don't see this lasting too much longer.)

.519 Marrero (Hard to expect more from your 5th string 3Bman.)

 

Last 365 days...

 

.905 Betts

.876 HRam

.831 Young

.826 Moreland

.802 Leon (384 PA sample size)

.797 Pedey

.780 Beni

.778 Bogey

.742 JBJ

.709 Holt

.704 Vaz

.684 Marco

 

[moonslav59]

With HRam being the FT DH for the rest of the season, getting Young some PAs vs LHPs will be difficult. He's been a top 10 batter vs LHPs for the last 3 years combined.

Sitting him vs lefties borders on criminal negligence.

 

Is it time to think about sitting Beni vs LHPs (and maybe JBJ a few games here and there, too)?

 

Career splits:

Beni - .842 vs RHP/ .536 vs LHPs (68 PAs)

vs RH'd starter: .848

vs LH'd starter: .387

(In the minors, Beni appeared to hit well vs all pitchers.)

 

JBJ- .734 vs RHPs/ .694 vs LHPs

(However, in 20 PAs vs LHPs this year, he's at .929.)

(2016: .902 vs RHPs/.665 vs LHPs)

 

[Spudboy]

I was never on the 'trade Holt' bandwagon and still am not.

 

I never viewed Holt as a starter, which many here did, but as a super utility guy, he was invaluable to the team. Invaluable, IMO, in ways that go beyond what the numbers will show.

 

His recovery right now goes beyond baseball, and is more about his everyday life. I wish him the best.

 

This is how I feel too.

[SoxHop]

I was never on the 'trade Holt' bandwagon and still am not.

 

I never viewed Holt as a starter, which many here did, but as a super utility guy, he was invaluable to the team. Invaluable, IMO, in ways that go beyond what the numbers will show.

 

His recovery right now goes beyond baseball, and is more about his everyday life. I wish him the best.

 

I really liked that guy. I think we were messing around one time and looked up the Sox win-lost record when he started and it was way higher than when he wasn't.

 

Holt is a gamer........ He wasn't an allstar, but I always thought you could count on him to be a tought out or possibly make the play.

 

I think we are a worse team without him..

[S5Dewey]

I actually like where this team is right now. We're 4 games over .500 and in second place in the AL East, 3 games back of the EE. Sure, it could be better but it could also be one Hell of a lot worse.

 

Let's see what happens. It's been said that a winning team has three stages. The first 1/3 of the season is spent identifying weaknesses, the second 1/3 is remedying those weaknesses, and the third 1/3 is playing up to their potential.

 

We're 1/3 of the way through the season. We'll know more by the AS break.

[moonslav59]

I actually like where this team is right now. We're 4 games over .500 and in second place in the AL East, 3 games back of the EE. Sure, it could be better but it could also be one Hell of a lot worse.

 

Let's see what happens. It's been said that a winning team has three stages. The first 1/3 of the season is spent identifying weaknesses, the second 1/3 is remedying those weaknesses, and the third 1/3 is playing up to their potential.

 

We're 1/3 of the way through the season. We'll know more by the AS break.

 

We also have some cap space to take on a salary dump at the deadline.

 

I feel pretty good about where we are right now, too.

[cp176]

I think that you have to find a way to utilize Johnson. One of the two - Pomeranz or Johnson - would solidify our bullpen. i think that we still miss the real bat in the lineup. The big bat to help out Mookie. Pedroia getting injured is and was inevitable. Losing his real backup Hernandez sucks. If they sort things out, they'll keep battling away.

[moonslav59]

I think that you have to find a way to utilize Johnson. One of the two - Pomeranz or Johnson - would solidify our bullpen.

 

As long as everyone stays healthy, it's going to be hard to give Johnson another look at starter for the big club. Turning him into a RP'er might mess him up whereby he can't start later on, if needed.

 

That brings me to the idea of moving Pom to the pen. Too many times he hits a wall or whatever it is after 4-5 innings.

 

I'm NOT saying I'm for moving Pom to the pen right now, especially based on one game by Johnson, but if he keeps struggling to go 5-6 innings, maybe at some point, we have to consider it.

[cp176]

I think that you have to find a way to utilize Johnson. One of the two - Pomeranz or Johnson - would solidify our bullpen.

 

As long as everyone stays healthy, it's going to be hard to give Johnson another look at starter for the big club. Turning him into a RP'er might mess him up whereby he can't start later on, if needed.

 

That brings me to the idea of moving Pom to the pen. Too many times he hits a wall or whatever it is after 4-5 innings.

 

I'm NOT saying I'm for moving Pom to the pen right now, especially based on one game by Johnson, but if he keeps struggling to go 5-6 innings, maybe at some point, we have to consider it.

 

I agree with you that one of these two could help us out in the bullpen. Give us a guy out there who could actually give us more than one inning of potential pitching when he gets to the mound. With fewer and fewer pitchers even able to get to the 7th inning, one or even two fairly reliable arms out there that can be brought in to help out would be great. Johnson has overcome a lot in his career. i think that he would be happy to have any spot on the roster. I like the fact that he is a strike thrower.

[Nick]

This has been a frustrating season with all the injuries.

 

Thornburg injury is still puzzling to me.

 

We will need Carson Smith to get back to his 2015 season. I don't believe we have that set up guy for 8th inning. Kelly, Hembree and Barnes have all shown they can do it from time to time but not consistently.

[Bellhorn04]

This has been a frustrating season with all the injuries.

 

Thornburg injury is still puzzling to me.

 

We will need Carson Smith to get back to his 2015 season. I don't believe we have that set up guy for 8th inning. Kelly, Hembree and Barnes have all shown they can do it from time to time but not consistently.

 

The absence of both Smith and Thornburg is a major problem. Kelly, Hembree and Barnes have done as well as can be expected, but they're not going to hold up over a whole season.

[moonslav59]

I agree with you that one of these two could help us out in the bullpen. Give us a guy out there who could actually give us more than one inning of potential pitching when he gets to the mound. With fewer and fewer pitchers even able to get to the 7th inning, one or even two fairly reliable arms out there that can be brought in to help out would be great. Johnson has overcome a lot in his career. i think that he would be happy to have any spot on the roster. I like the fact that he is a strike thrower.

 

I agree, BJ would take any ML roster slot given him, but I wonder if we want to jeopardize messing with our 6th starter by converting him to a long relief guy.

 

I might be best to keep him on a regular rotation schedule in AAA, in case he's needed as a starter.

 

Our pen seems to be hanging in there, despite some recent troubles by Barnes and Hembree, so I'm not sure we're at an urgent point in need of a pen arm like BJ.

[moonslav59]

The absence of both Smith and Thornburg is a major problem. Kelly, Hembree and Barnes have done as well as can be expected, but they're not going to hold up over a whole season.

 

I still think out pen will prove to be our greatest weakness this year, but 3B is giving a good run at it.

[Slasher9]

The absence of both Smith and Thornburg is a major problem.

are either of them expected back at some point this season?

[Maxbialystock]

I still think out pen will prove to be our greatest weakness this year, but 3B is giving a good run at it.

 

I think it's virtually impossible for 3B to be an important weakness. The bullpen might be, but my candidate is the one we already have--hitting. Last year the Sox had 6 of the top 40 AL hitters in OPS, and this year we have 3. Last year we led MLB in runs and the AL by 100 in runs. Now we are 14th in MLB in runs and 5th in the AL.

 

Remember, HanRam didn't replace Ortiz in the lineup because they both played last year. Moreland replaced Ortiz, and it's just possible that subtraction has affected the whole lineup. Right now just about everyone--Pedroia, Bogie, Betts, JBJ, Leon, Marrero, etc--are worse than last year or worse than whoever they replaced. Benintendi is probably in the group, I'm not sure.

 

This lineup has two distinct characteristics--they love to hit into double plays and they hate hitting home runs. We are #1 in MLB in the former and #29 in the latter.

[mvp 78]

are either of them expected back at some point this season?

 

Smith should be back in June. Thornburg is a big question mark as they don't seem to know what is wrong with him.

[mvp 78]

http://nesn.com/2017/05/carson-smith-eager-to-return-to-red-sox-following-tommy-john-surgery/

[mvp 78]

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/05/boston_red_sox_havent_written.html

 

On Thornburg:

 

"As we said, ideally at the end of this week we'd hope to have a ball in his hand," Farrell said Saturday here at Fenway Park. "I don't know if that's going to be today. But based on the work that he's doing in the training room, the range of motion, some of the symptoms that are subsiding, we're hopeful that is getting closer.

 

"And I know that is an inconclusive response. But at the same time, he's going to have a ball in his hand when he's first capable. And by no means have we written anything off. We feel like the throwing program is going to resume shortly and the progression following."

[dgalehouse]

How many times have we heard the adage , " The baseball season is a marathon , not a sprint ". How many times ? Yet , many of us always forget it.

[Slasher9]

How many times have we heard the adage , " The baseball season is a marathon , not a sprint ". How many times ? Yet , many of us always forget it.

 

i see it as 162 sprints. ~