A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[Nick]

Moreland was a good get, and yes I realize he's not going to continue hitting at his current pace. I said at the time that he was a good fit for the team. This is the kind of Theo move I'm talking about. Good job Dombrowski.

 

Why that's the highest compliment you can give DD....he appreciates it.

[oldtimer]

Yes, it is.

 

Whether Marco or someone else eventually takes over the 3B job or not, Pablo needs to be given his fair chance. If he's not in the team's long term plans, then he needs to build his trade value.

 

So far Pablo looks to be playing about as expected. Okay but not top fielder and a decent hitter against right hand pitching. We knew he was a free swinger when we got him but he can sometimes hit balls off the plate hard. So we got maybe an average third baseman who can hit lefties to some extent. Not worth what he is being paid and probably replaceable with a better for less money. I do agree though with giving him a long enough time to see what he can do.

[mvp 78]

Moreland was a good get, and yes I realize he's not going to continue hitting at his current pace. I said at the time that he was a good fit for the team. This is the kind of Theo move I'm talking about. Good job Dombrowski.

 

Hell just froze over!

[mvp 78]

"To enhance our ability to go for it the next three years."

 

The problem for me is that there has really been little consideration to the long term outlook. I know many of you don't care what happens when the cliff arrives, but I do.

 

I kind of wonder if this Sox ownership group isn't worried about a long term outlook. Maybe they are planning on selling in a few years?

[mvp 78]

When Dombrowski arrived in Boston back in the late days of August 2015, it was a real change in mindset inside the Red Sox front office. Within a matter of days, the team went from being sabermetric heavy and hesitant to pay a pitcher who was over 30 years old (Jon Lester) to being almost all-in on every flashy free agent and every attractive guy on the trading block.

[/b]

 

That line is a real groaner to me.

 

Theo: AGon and CC

Ben: Hanley and Pablo

 

I think the "all-in" comes from ownership, not from the GM. Unless there was some unknowable sabermetric reason to spend all that money on CC, Pablo and Hanley? I don't think the recent moves are that much different from how they've operated in the past.

[mvp 78]

The author of that article isn't even out of High School yet. It seems his knowledge of the history of Sox transactions is kind of suspect. He was still learning his ABC's when Aaron Boone took Wakefield deep. Anyone who can't comprehend the mindset of growing up with a perennial also-ran, shouldn't be fretting about the state of the franchise right now. The sky isn't falling. Theo traded prospects. Ben made some terrible signings. I don't think this person really understands market value. David Price is worth that contract. That's what you spend on the open market. Should they have used it on a different pitcher? Yes, most of us think they should have just signed Lester to begin with. However, saying none of DD's moves were smart just comes off as a pretty dumb statement. "Why not try to be crafty" is basically playing fantasy baseball. Unless you're in on the phone calls, how would you know if a better deal could have been had?

 

Blah, whatever.

[moonslav59]

First, Sandoval shouldn't even be allowed in the dugout when a lefty is pitching. If he's there Farrell might be tempted to do something stupid (again) like... use him.

 

Moving Sandoval to 1B doesn't really solve any problem. It just means that we're going to need two players to fill his spot in the order - a lefty and a righty. He's still going to suck against left handed pitching.

 

I'm now in favor of leaving Sandoval at 3B, giving himself a chance to build his trade/sale value. That'll give us a chance to evaluate Devers & Hernandez at 3B. If one of those guys pans out as a 3B then we look for buyers for Sandoval. If neither of them pan out then at least we've still got Sandoval. He's overpaid but at least he's now serviceable.

 

We're not going to cut Pablo, and the odds are he'll be with us next year.

 

Pablo would "solve" the problem of Moreland leaving (1B or DH vs RHPs). We could use HanRam-Travis-Pablo at 1B while one DHs.

 

vs RHPs:

1B: Pablo

DH: HanRaam

 

vs LHPs:

1B: Travis

DH: HanRam

 

Devers or Hernandez or both would have to be good enough to play 3B for this to happen. That could be a big if for 2018.

[Nick]

Hell just froze over!

 

I saw pigs flying when I came back from lunch.

[Nick]

If Wright recovers and our 3-5 pitches reasonably well, I wonder if we can use Johnson out of the pen and just get rid of Abad. Can he be the long reliever for us?

[mvp 78]

If Wright recovers and our 3-5 pitches reasonably well, I wonder if we can use Johnson out of the pen and just get rid of Abad. Can he be the long reliever for us?

 

I'd go with Workman first.

[moonslav59]

I'm guessing Abad goes when Thornburg joins the club, if not, when C Smith does, unless we have more pen issues.

[Fisk]

Workmans velocity is starting to tick up from the high 80s to the low 90s, should be seeing him soon.

[Kimmi]

Why that's the highest compliment you can give DD....he appreciates it.

 

He does appreciate it.

 

I'm positive that Dombrowski reads my criticism of him and takes it to heart.

[Kimmi]

So far Pablo looks to be playing about as expected. Okay but not top fielder and a decent hitter against right hand pitching. We knew he was a free swinger when we got him but he can sometimes hit balls off the plate hard. So we got maybe an average third baseman who can hit lefties to some extent. Not worth what he is being paid and probably replaceable with a better for less money. I do agree though with giving him a long enough time to see what he can do.

 

Even if he's not going to be our 3B or the remainder of the year, he needs to be given a fair chance to build up some trade value. I don't expect him to be an all star, but 2 weeks into the season is far too early to give up on him one way or the other.

[Kimmi]

I kind of wonder if this Sox ownership group isn't worried about a long term outlook. Maybe they are planning on selling in a few years?

 

That's a very valid possibility.

[Kimmi]

That line is a real groaner to me.

 

Theo: AGon and CC

Ben: Hanley and Pablo

 

I think the "all-in" comes from ownership, not from the GM. Unless there was some unknowable sabermetric reason to spend all that money on CC, Pablo and Hanley? I don't think the recent moves are that much different from how they've operated in the past.

 

Two words: Larry Lucchino

 

But regardless, those were not all in moves. They were flashy, yes, but not all in.

 

I think Ben might be behind the Hanley signing, but I think CC and Pablo were all on Larry.

[Kimmi]

The author of that article isn't even out of High School yet. It seems his knowledge of the history of Sox transactions is kind of suspect. He was still learning his ABC's when Aaron Boone took Wakefield deep. Anyone who can't comprehend the mindset of growing up with a perennial also-ran, shouldn't be fretting about the state of the franchise right now. The sky isn't falling. Theo traded prospects. Ben made some terrible signings. I don't think this person really understands market value. David Price is worth that contract. That's what you spend on the open market. Should they have used it on a different pitcher? Yes, most of us think they should have just signed Lester to begin with. However, saying none of DD's moves were smart just comes off as a pretty dumb statement. "Why not try to be crafty" is basically playing fantasy baseball. Unless you're in on the phone calls, how would you know if a better deal could have been had?

 

Blah, whatever.

 

I have basically stated and agree with everything that was in that person's article.

 

In other words, your opinion of him translates onto me.

[Kimmi]

I saw pigs flying when I came back from lunch.

 

That was not the first time that I've complimented Dombrowski.

 

I give credit where credit is due.

 

FTR, I liked both the Smith and the Thornburg trades.

[Fisk]

Two words: Larry Lucchino

 

But regardless, those were not all in moves. They were flashy, yes, but not all in.

 

I think Ben might be behind the Hanley signing, but I think CC and Pablo were all on Larry.

 

Lucchino always gets the villain role, not really sure how much of a villain he is. Was the president for 3 championship teams, brought Theo over from San Diego.

[Kimmi]

Lucchino always gets the villain role, not really sure how much of a villain he is. Was the president for 3 championship teams, brought Theo over from San Diego.

 

Just speculation and interpreting what I'm reading between the lines. I think he 'forced' a lot on both Theo and Ben that they were not in agreement with. Moves like Pablo just don't fit the MO of guys like Theo and Ben.

 

IMO, Larry did a great job from the business aspect of things. He should have stayed out of baseball ops.

[Fisk]

Just speculation and interpreting what I'm reading between the lines. I think he 'forced' a lot on both Theo and Ben that they were not in agreement with. Moves like Pablo just don't fit the MO of guys like Theo and Ben.

 

IMO, Larry did a great job from the business aspect of things. He should have stayed out of baseball ops.

 

Theo had a lot of power in the organization after he walked out and came back in 05, I don't think Lucchino was overruling him at that point.

[moonslav59]

We've heard talk of an impending cliff the club is heading towards after the 2019 or 2020 season.

 

Here's an optimistic view of what might be to come:

 

Players lost to free agency (and hopeful in-system replacements)- w/luxury tax budget number lost:

After 2017:

Young $6.5M> Blake Swihart (3rd catcher/5th OF'er/DH)

Moreland $5.5M> Travis Shaw (1B)

Abad> Several options: Taylor, Scott, Workman, N Ramirez +++

After 2018:

Kimbrel $13M> Thornburg, Smith or someone else steps up

Pomeranz $Arb > Groome

J Kelly $Arb > Several options

R Ross $Arb > several options

Let's assume the salaries lost cover arb raises over these two years, and we don't have to replace anyone with a costly free agent, especially Kimbrel & Pomeranz. Maybe big "ifs", but let's go with it.

 

After 2019:

Ramirez $22M > Dalbec/Hernandez

Porcello $20.6M

Sandoval $19M (including $5M buyout) > Devers

Chris Sale $13.5M

X Bogaerts $Arb

Thornburg $Arb

B Holt $Arb

Rutledge $Arb

Maybe the loss of HanRam and Pablo can pay for the extensions of Sale & Bogaerts, but Porcello probably has to go due to hefty arb raises being paid out at this time. Let's assume all we lose is Porcello. This could be the 2020 roster framework:

 

$31M Price

$31M Sale

$25M Bogey

$14M Pedroia

$18M 3rd of 3 Arb Betts

$15M 4/4 Arb JBJ

$10M 3/4 Arb ERod

$8M 3/3 Arb Wright

This is about $150M for just 8 players.

Others still under team control:

Smith 3/3, Barnes 2/3, Leon 4/4, Vaz 3/3, Hembree 2/3, Elias 3/4

Beni, Swihart, Hernandez, Scott, Workman, Johnson, Owens, Selsky, Taylor, NRamirez, Martin, Marrero, Ysla

 

Rotation: C Sale, Price, ERod, Wright Groome

Bullpen: Smith, Barnes, Taylor, Workman, Johnson, Owens, Lakins/Cosart

 

1) Beni LF

2) Bogey SS

3) Betts RF

4) Devers 3B

5) JBJ CF

6) Pedey 2B

7) Travis 1B

8) Dalbec DH

9) Swihart/Vaz/Leon C

Bench: Hernandez, Chatham/Longhi/Ockimey/Marrero/Matheny

 

I'm not sure this is a "cliff", but it probably needs some work. Plus, it needs Devers, Travis and Groome to all come through.

[Kimmi]

Theo had a lot of power in the organization after he walked out and came back in 05, I don't think Lucchino was overruling him at that point.

 

I think that the understanding between them was better for a while, but that it gradually worsened again. I have no proof of this, but I strongly believe it.

[cp176]

"To enhance our ability to go for it the next three years."

 

The problem for me is that there has really been little consideration to the long term outlook. I know many of you don't care what happens when the cliff arrives, but I do.

 

Only speaking for myself here. I care deeply about the future of this franchise. I'm saying that I disagree very much with anyone who thinks that what has been done has been done with no regard for what might happen next. I do not think for one second that there will be a "cliff".

[Kimmi]

We've heard talk of an impending cliff the club is heading towards after the 2019 or 2020 season.

 

Here's an optimistic view of what might be to come:

 

A lot can and probably will happen over the next 3 years.

 

We will have to wait to see what happens.

 

I can just say that as of now, I am not pleased with the long term outlook of the team. Dombrowski is a smart baseball man. He has time to right the long term ship.

[Kimmi]

Only speaking for myself here. I care deeply about the future of this franchise. I'm saying that I disagree very much with anyone who thinks that what has been done has been done with no regard for what might happen next. I do not think for one second that there will be a "cliff".

 

As I just posted, we'll have to wait to see what happens.

 

I will be glad to give Dombrowski my sincerest apologies if our team remains a contender beyond the 3-4 year window.

[cp176]

As I just posted, we'll have to wait to see what happens.

 

I will be glad to give Dombrowski my sincerest apologies if our team remains a contender beyond the 3-4 year window.

 

That is fair but no one should be talking about trying to eat anymore crow here. They are smarter than most of us. i realize I don't know most "of us" but I am still assuming that they are smarter. lol

[Bellhorn04]

Two words: Larry Lucchino

 

But regardless, those were not all in moves. They were flashy, yes, but not all in.

 

I think Ben might be behind the Hanley signing, but I think CC and Pablo were all on Larry.

 

Ben actually said at some point that he had strongly supported the signing of CC. He wasn't the GM at the time, I realize, but it didn't sound like it was a move Larry was shoving down everyone's throat.

 

Also Larry was a key figure in the trade of CC to the Dodgers.

[Nick]

That was not the first time that I've complimented Dombrowski.

 

I give credit where credit is due.

 

FTR, I liked both the Smith and the Thornburg trades.

 

I'm just having fun with you.....no malice intended. We actually all care about the future of our franchise.

[moonslav59]

As I just posted, we'll have to wait to see what happens.

 

I will be glad to give Dombrowski my sincerest apologies if our team remains a contender beyond the 3-4 year window.

 

Losing HanRam & Pablo's contracts the same year Sale, Bogey & Porcello are up for extensions makes keeping 2 of the 3 reasonably possible. There's a chance to keep all three, if we have already filled the shoes of Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Young, Moreland and Ross from within the system.

 

That might be a lot to ask for, but only Kimbrel has a major role right now.

 

I could see "the cliff" being 4 years away, when we will already almost certainly be significantly over the luxury tax but not at the $20M over penalty stage. After 2020, we have these players coming off the books but needing replacement or extension:

 

Betts

JBJ

Wright

Smith

Vaz

Leon

 

None of these guys are "fluff" like Pablo will have been the year before. Take Betts or JBJ plus Vaz and Leon out of the previous year's projected line-up and what do we have?

 

2019:

1) Beni LF

2) Bogey SS

3) Betts RF

4) Devers 3B

5) JBJ CF

6) Pedey 2B

7) Travis 1B

8) Dalbec DH

9) Swihart/Vaz/Leon C

Bench: Hernandez, Chatham/Longhi/Ockimey/Marrero/Matheny

 

2020:

1) Beni CF

2) Travis 1B

3) Bogey SS

4) JBJ RF

5) Devers 3B

6) Pedey 2B

7) Dalbec LF

8) Swihart C

9) Hernandez DH

 

or, take out JBJ and insert Betts.

 

Yikes!

 

We'll need a lot to go right for 2020's team to compete for a ring.