2017 Season Red Sox Wins Projection

[Emp9]

Our offense outscored the rest of the AL East by over 100 runs. No, our offense will not be as great without Papi, but it will still be pretty doggone good.

 

As I've said before, I'm a worrier. Not making the playoffs this season is not on my list of things to worry about.

 

... and 70 more runs than the Cubs. #1 in MLB: AB, Hits, Runs, 2B, TB, RBI, Avg, OBP, SLG, OPS. Our offense will suffer from not having Papi anymore. Suffer as in drop a spot or two from within the top 5 offenses, not suffer and miss the post season, I don't think. That'd be a whole hell of a lot of suffering. Moreland may only give us half of Papi's production, but using last years totals as a simple guide that'd still leave the Sox 1st and 2nd in many offensive categories and still a top 5 offense. The end of the day, it's how they match up against the AL East (not the entire MLB) anyway.

 

I do hope the Sox offense will be less streaky than last season. I still think if the Sox were less streaky and even scored less they'd win more games overall.

[Kimmi]

... and 70 more runs than the Cubs. #1 in MLB: AB, Hits, Runs, 2B, TB, RBI, Avg, OBP, SLG, OPS. Our offense will suffer from not having Papi anymore. Suffer as in drop a spot or two from within the top 5 offenses, not suffer and miss the post season, I don't think. That'd be a whole hell of a lot of suffering. Moreland may only give us half of Papi's production, but using last years totals as a simple guide that'd still leave the Sox 1st and 2nd in many offensive categories and still a top 5 offense. The end of the day, it's how they match up against the AL East (not the entire MLB) anyway.

 

I do hope the Sox offense will be less streaky than last season. I still think if the Sox were less streaky and even scored less they'd win more games overall.

 

Exactly Emp. Personally, I think that the Sox will still be a top 3 offense, with slightly improved pitching even if Price is out all season.

[Slasher9]

Benintendi should make an impact. Pablo maybe is an upgrade over Shaw, who knows. There are no positives offensively to losing a guy who hit to a 1+ OPS. Your offense will suffer. The fix was to offset it by upgrading your rotation. The upgrade was Sale, but if you remove Price from the equation, then you're treading water for the most part. If Price is out for an extended period of time, you're going to be scrapping to make the playoffs

 

33,332 of your posts are trolling. it is amazing to me how you have so many here snowed. well done sir.

[Thunder]

If Sale turns out to be the clubhouse poison I think he will be, we'll miss the playoffs. Otherwise, we should Win Dance Repeat about 90 times.

[S5Dewey]

... and 70 more runs than the Cubs. #1 in MLB: AB, Hits, Runs, 2B, TB, RBI, Avg, OBP, SLG, OPS. Our offense will suffer from not having Papi anymore. Suffer as in drop a spot or two from within the top 5 offenses, not suffer and miss the post season, I don't think. That'd be a whole hell of a lot of suffering. Moreland may only give us half of Papi's production, but using last years totals as a simple guide that'd still leave the Sox 1st and 2nd in many offensive categories and still a top 5 offense. The end of the day, it's how they match up against the AL East (not the entire MLB) anyway.

 

I do hope the Sox offense will be less streaky than last season. I still think if the Sox were less streaky and even scored less they'd win more games overall.

IMO this whole business about having the best offense in baseball last year has been a bit overblown. Ya, they scored a lot of runs but many of those runs were in blowout games. My general 'take' on the 2016 Sox is that they were a team that could really kick the crap out of a pitcher who wasn't pitching well but struggled against good pitching.

[Bellhorn04]

IMO this whole business about having the best offense in baseball last year has been a bit overblown. Ya, they scored a lot of runs but many of those runs were in blowout games. My general 'take' on the 2016 Sox is that they were a team that could really kick the crap out of a pitcher who wasn't pitching well but struggled against good pitching.

 

Are there any offenses that don't struggle against good pitching?

[User Name]

Isn't that why it's good pitching? The whole "X or Y can't hit good pitching" is intellectually lazy. If good pitchers could be hit consistently they would not be good pitchers.

[S5Dewey]

Are there any offenses that don't struggle against good pitching?

 

No, but is there another explanation for the inconsistencies of last year's offense?

[Bellhorn04]

No, but is there another explanation for the inconsistencies of last year's offense?

 

All offenses are inconsistent.

 

We were a little heavy on the blowouts last year, I agree with that part. That's a big part of why our Pythagorean W-L record was 5 wins higher than our actual record.

 

But to do a more meaningful analysis on offensive consistency you would have to go through the game logs and see how many times we scored 5 runs or more and compare to other teams, that type of thing.

[mvp 78]

Isn't that why it's good pitching? The whole "X or Y can't hit good pitching" is intellectually lazy. If good pitchers could be hit consistently they would not be good pitchers.

 

Pitchers really struggled against Bonds from 2001 - 2004. Wonder what his secret was? Maybe the Sox need to figure that out and give it a shot.

[sk7326]

94-68

 

On paper this is the best team in the American League.

[moonslav59]

All offenses are inconsistent.

 

We were a little heavy on the blowouts last year, I agree with that part. That's a big part of why our Pythagorean W-L record was 5 wins higher than our actual record.

 

But to do a more meaningful analysis on offensive consistency you would have to go through the game logs and see how many times we scored 5 runs or more and compare to other teams, that type of thing.

 

You also have to adjust for park setting. We should score more than most teams even with an equal offense. (We should also allow more runs, if equal.

[jacksonianmarch]

It was the best team before Price went down. I think fully healthy, the sox edge the Guardians by a win or two. Without Price for awhile, I think the Guardians are top seed in the AL

[Bellhorn04]

You also have to adjust for park setting. We should score more than most teams even with an equal offense. (We should also allow more runs, if equal.

 

Agreed.

[Nick]

93 looks like a good number

[Fisk]

It was the best team before Price went down. I think fully healthy, the sox edge the Guardians by a win or two. Without Price for awhile, I think the Guardians are top seed in the AL

 

I'm more confident price will have more starts the. Carrasco and Salazar.

[Emp9]

IMO this whole business about having the best offense in baseball last year has been a bit overblown. Ya, they scored a lot of runs but many of those runs were in blowout games. My general 'take' on the 2016 Sox is that they were a team that could really kick the crap out of a pitcher who wasn't pitching well but struggled against good pitching.

 

Still, a +184 run differential and scoring 119 more runs than Toronto and 134 more runs than Baltimore was pretty impressive. I'll take the blow-out wins too. Good teams should probably have a lot of Blow-out wins. However, I'd like to see more consistency to hopefully win more close games. When I say close games, I don't necessarily mean one-run games, just close games in general. Within 3 runs is fair I think? One-run games we were 20 W - 24 L. I think I can tack-on another 24 losses that were games lost by 2-3 runs. We were 2nd in the AL East in Runs Against and hopefully our Starters this season make us 1st in that department.

[Kimmi]

Still, a +184 run differential and scoring 119 more runs than Toronto and 134 more runs than Baltimore was pretty impressive. I'll take the blow-out wins too. Good teams should probably have a lot of Blow-out wins. However, I'd like to see more consistency to hopefully win more close games. When I say close games, I don't necessarily mean one-run games, just close games in general. Within 3 runs is fair I think? One-run games we were 20 W - 24 L. I think I can tack-on another 24 losses that were games lost by 2-3 runs. We were 2nd in the AL East in Runs Against and hopefully our Starters this season make us 1st in that department.

 

This is what good teams do. They win a lot of blow out games. The closer the score, the more the outcome is due to randomness and not skill.

[Fisk]

We were 20 and 24 in one run games last year with our run differential we should have won 98 games. Our young core is a year older and should keep getting better, negativity about this team makes absolutely no sense.

[mvp 78]

I took 87-89 because I really question the health of Price and Pom. I also believe Wright and Porcello will regress from last year. ERod could really be a huge lynchpin or a huge letdown. There are also a few major relievers coming back from injury that may not be very effective this year.

 

The offense should be fine though.

[Fisk]

I took 87-89 because I really question the health of Price and Pom. I also believe Wright and Porcello will regress from last year. ERod could really be a huge lynchpin or a huge letdown. There are also a few major relievers coming back from injury that may not be very effective this year.

 

The offense should be fine though.

 

I would like to hear your thought process Sale will be an upgrade over last years Price Erod should definitely be better then last year. Wright missed the last 2 months of last season and pPorcello is just hitting his prime. Not one doctor has said that Price needs surgery.

Last year they had numerous replacement level starts from OSullivan, Owens, Bucholtz and Kelly.

The bullpen didn't have Carson Smith last year or Thornburg, I would guess one of them at least will be effective. Kelly was lights out in September and October. Looks like Hembree and Barnes can take the next step. Have 4 lefties to choose from plus some minor league depth.

Don't think worst case scenario will happen with all there pitchers.

[cp176]

Still, a +184 run differential and scoring 119 more runs than Toronto and 134 more runs than Baltimore was pretty impressive. I'll take the blow-out wins too. Good teams should probably have a lot of Blow-out wins. However, I'd like to see more consistency to hopefully win more close games. When I say close games, I don't necessarily mean one-run games, just close games in general. Within 3 runs is fair I think? One-run games we were 20 W - 24 L. I think I can tack-on another 24 losses that were games lost by 2-3 runs. We were 2nd in the AL East in Runs Against and hopefully our Starters this season make us 1st in that department.

 

The closer the games are the greater managerial decisions also play in to the outcome. i wonder how many of the one run games that were lost came when players were being rested. We tend to see some interesting lineups on the card at times.

Over coaching as well as under coaching comes in to play to a much greater extent the closer the game become. I think that John Farrell is an excellent manger of people but when it comes to decisions that lead to wins and losses, we probably will continue to see all types of opinions.

[mvp 78]

I would like to hear your thought process Sale will be an upgrade over last years Price Erod should definitely be better then last year. Wright missed the last 2 months of last season and pPorcello is just hitting his prime. Not one doctor has said that Price needs surgery.

Last year they had numerous replacement level starts from OSullivan, Owens, Bucholtz and Kelly.

The bullpen didn't have Carson Smith last year or Thornburg, I would guess one of them at least will be effective. Kelly was lights out in September and October. Looks like Hembree and Barnes can take the next step. Have 4 lefties to choose from plus some minor league depth.

Don't think worst case scenario will happen with all there pitchers.

 

Sale will be good for sure. Often, a pitcher's first year in Boston isn't his best self. I think he'll be funto watch, but don't expect Pedro 99-00.

 

Porcello will not put up CY numbers again, but should be better than 2015.

 

Wright pitched out of his mind last year and I don't see how he can replicate that.

 

Pom is injured.

 

Price doesn't have enough strength to even start a throwing program yet.

 

Thornburg AND Smith are both coming off serious issues.

 

Coming up a few games short of last year's win total isn't out of the realm of possibility.

[Fisk]

Sale will be good for sure. Often, a pitcher's first year in Boston isn't his best self. I think he'll be funto watch, but don't expect Pedro 99-00.

 

Porcello will not put up CY numbers again, but should be better than 2015.

 

Wright pitched out of his mind last year and I don't see how he can replicate that.

 

Pom is injured.

 

Price doesn't have enough strength to even start a throwing program yet.

 

Thornburg AND Smith are both coming off serious issues.

 

Coming up a few games short of last year's win total isn't out of the realm of possibility.

 

No reason for Porcello not to match last year had similar year in 14. Wright missed 2 months even if he's not as good you have an extra 2 months. EROD looks like he's ready to take the next step. Prices throwing program according t Farrell can start at anytime. Pom taking his regular turn Friday. Thorn burg pitching Friday and a bullpen with many hard throwers and depth. They had 5 less wins then they should have last year, possible but I find it hard to believe they can't match there win total from last year.

[Bellhorn04]

Pitcher health is a big concern now, that's for sure.

[Fisk]

Pitcher health is a big concern now, that's for sure.

 

Pitcher health is a concern with every team.

[Bellhorn04]

Pitcher health is a concern with every team.

 

Sure it is. But we already have a number of specific injury concerns.

[Fisk]

Sure it is. But we already have a number of specific injury concerns.

 

So do all the other playoff contenders

[mvp 78]

So do all the other playoff contenders

 

Which other pitcher the caliber of Price on a contender has still not thrown in ST?

[mvp 78]

No reason for Porcello not to match last year had similar year in 14. Wright missed 2 months even if he's not as good you have an extra 2 months. EROD looks like he's ready to take the next step. Prices throwing program according t Farrell can start at anytime. Pom taking his regular turn Friday. Thorn burg pitching Friday and a bullpen with many hard throwers and depth. They had 5 less wins then they should have last year, possible but I find it hard to believe they can't match there win total from last year.

 

2014 vs 2016 Porcello: increase k/9 of almost 2, approximately 20 more innings pitched, bb/9 down over 1, babip was lowest of career, WAR was 2.4 higher. 2016 was way better than 2014 Porcello.

 

Sure, Wright missed some time, but he still pitched more innings than he ever has in a single season.

 

ERod always looks like he's ready to take another step, but still hasn't actually done it. People said the same thing about Doubront every year.

 

Per this morning's Herald: David Price, who has not thrown off a mound since Feb. 28 because of an elbow injury, is almost back to square one. The Red Sox starter has lost enough strength in his arm to where he is weaker than he was when he reported to spring training, the team said yesterday. And until he regains that strength, he cannot begin a throwing program.

 

Pom taking his regular turn means almost nothing to me. The guy is clearly damaged goods. He won't pitch 100 innings this year.

 

Thornburg still isn't ready. If the season started today, he'd be in extended ST.

 

5 less wins based on scoring more runs than their opponent? I'm sorry, but I don't really buy into that stat. They "should have" won more. If they only win 87 games this year, but still outscore their opponents, am I going to hear "but they were a better team and should have won more games?" You either win or you don't. There's no "should have's."

 

They can match their win total, definitely. I just think there's a bigger chance that they won't.