2017 Season Red Sox Wins Projection

[mvp 78]

From the Herald:

 

Thornburg falls behind

 

Reliever Tyler Thornburg (shoulder) has missed enough time that he will not be relied upon to be the eighth-inning set-up pitcher to start the season, if he’s even ready to go on Opening Day. That role will be assumed by someone from the right-handed trio of Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree.

 

“I think at this point we have to kind of take a wait-and-see with Thornburg,” Farrell said. “If we open up tomorrow, it’s hard to anoint Tyler Thornburg as our eighth-inning guy. He needs to get in better pitching shape just because of the time missed.”

 

After a couple of early and disappointing appearances, Thornburg is slated to appear in a minor league game on Friday. He reported to camp with a shoulder that did not meet the club’s health requirement.

 

“It’s pretty hard to tell where I’ll be,” Thornburg said. “I’ve been bouncing back great from bullpens, but those are a little bit different than games.”

 

I hope Thornburg and Smith pitch as expected, but neither of them are ready yet. Until they are, it's hard to say what kind of performance they will have this year.

[Fisk]

From the Herald:

 

Thornburg falls behind

 

Reliever Tyler Thornburg (shoulder) has missed enough time that he will not be relied upon to be the eighth-inning set-up pitcher to start the season, if he’s even ready to go on Opening Day. That role will be assumed by someone from the right-handed trio of Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree.

 

“I think at this point we have to kind of take a wait-and-see with Thornburg,” Farrell said. “If we open up tomorrow, it’s hard to anoint Tyler Thornburg as our eighth-inning guy. He needs to get in better pitching shape just because of the time missed.”

 

After a couple of early and disappointing appearances, Thornburg is slated to appear in a minor league game on Friday. He reported to camp with a shoulder that did not meet the club’s health requirement.

 

“It’s pretty hard to tell where I’ll be,” Thornburg said. “I’ve been bouncing back great from bullpens, but those are a little bit different than games.”

 

I hope Thornburg and Smith pitch as expected, but neither of them are ready yet. Until they are, it's hard to say what kind of performance they will have this year.

 

So you go to worst case scenario

[mvp 78]

So you go to worst case scenario

 

Nope, worst case scenario is 2012, 2014, 2015.

[sk7326]

Now you can never account for health - that is the 800 lb gorilla in all these assessments.

 

That and bullpen - which is forever a crapshoot ... very few teams get consistent performance from that year to year.

 

The rotation should be able to survive not having Price for a little while. Rodriguez flashed star ability last season - and if he ended up the team's 2nd best pitcher ... it would be a surprise, but not a crazy one.

 

3B is an issue - but there are ways around that ... if the Sox want a corner bat badly enough, there is trade inventory, whether it be Bradley or some of their high minor stuff.

[mvp 78]

Now you can never account for health - that is the 800 lb gorilla in all these assessments.

 

That and bullpen - which is forever a crapshoot ... very few teams get consistent performance from that year to year.

 

The rotation should be able to survive not having Price for a little while. Rodriguez flashed star ability last season - and if he ended up the team's 2nd best pitcher ... it would be a surprise, but not a crazy one.

 

3B is an issue - but there are ways around that ... if the Sox want a corner bat badly enough, there is trade inventory, whether it be Bradley or some of their high minor stuff.

 

See, I don't think 3b is an issue. I think Pablo will be fine. My gut tells me that Hanley may be dealing with injuries this year which could affect DH production bigly. I think C is a question mark as CV didn't have a great glove last year and Leon is probably a flash in the pan. The rest of the lineup should be really, really good. This should be a team that mashes.

 

There are just a lot of concerns for me with the rotation after Sale and Porcello. I think the team will be competitive into late September, but will just drop a few close games in September.

 

The last homestand against the Jays and the 'Stros will either make or break the season, imo. That last month includes a 9 game stretch against the Rays and the A's (at home). They could really clean up, or they could be just really tired after a long season without Price and Pom. At that point, ERod and Wright would be closing on career highs for innings pitched. They could just be flat out worn down. There's a really good chance they could swoon like in 2011 if the starting pitching health really takes a downturn this year.

[User Name]

Hopefully Price and Pom are fresher by that point because of the late start, but it looks like this rotation could be snake-bit right off the bat.

[mvp 78]

Hopefully Price and Pom are fresher by that point because of the late start, but it looks like this rotation could be snake-bit right off the bat.

 

Agreed. I hope this team wins 110+ games and gets another ring. My gut is just telling me something else when it comes to the health of the pitching staff. I think some posters are being a little too optimistic about a return date for Price and how successful he'll be when he returns.

[Thunder]

From the Herald:

 

Thornburg falls behind

 

Reliever Tyler Thornburg (shoulder) has missed enough time that he will not be relied upon to be the eighth-inning set-up pitcher to start the season, if he’s even ready to go on Opening Day. That role will be assumed by someone from the right-handed trio of Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree.

 

“I think at this point we have to kind of take a wait-and-see with Thornburg,” Farrell said. “If we open up tomorrow, it’s hard to anoint Tyler Thornburg as our eighth-inning guy. He needs to get in better pitching shape just because of the time missed.”

 

After a couple of early and disappointing appearances, Thornburg is slated to appear in a minor league game on Friday. He reported to camp with a shoulder that did not meet the club’s health requirement.

 

“It’s pretty hard to tell where I’ll be,” Thornburg said. “I’ve been bouncing back great from bullpens, but those are a little bit different than games.”

 

I hope Thornburg and Smith pitch as expected, but neither of them are ready yet. Until they are, it's hard to say what kind of performance they will have this year.

 

Oh boy! Kelly or Barnes as a set up man? This is what I've always dreamed of.

[mvp 78]

Oh boy! Kelly or Barnes as a set up man? This is what I've always dreamed of.

 

Kelly has the potential and talent to be a great set up man. He just has never put it together.

[User Name]

He's looking pretty good right now. A step forward from him and Barnes would go a long way towards helping this team fulfill its potential.

[sk7326]

Kelly's potential as a bridge guy is huge.

 

Catcher is fascinating to me - the ideal solution would be for Swihart to take the job (of the three, he is the only one with all-star raw talent). But he has to earn it on both ends, which is totally legit ... Leon's 6 weeks does not outstrip the remainder of his career, though he has earned the right to try. Vasquez only has to hit a little to be a pretty good starter - but he has not achieved that "little". If he could deliver a .260/.310 sort of line - even a fairly empty one - that would be sufficient. Of course with Vasquez he actual gamecalling is a question. The pitching staff performed much better with Leon - which I am not stupid enough to blame on the catcher wholly, but it is a datapoint which is out there.

[moonslav59]

Kelly & Barnes have oodles of potential, but I still believe our pen will prove to be our weakest link. Maybe not "weak" but "weakest" (least strong area).

[sk7326]

Kelly & Barnes have oodles of potential, but I still believe our pen will prove to be our weakest link. Maybe not "weak" but "weakest" (least strong area).

 

It is also the hardest to project generally. Who knew that Hideki Okajima would turn into the best setup man in the American League and then turn into a pumpkin the next season? There is really no meaningful foolproof way to build a bullpen (and if so, Dombrowski sure as hell has not cracked it). There are a lot of live arms in this group - and that is a good place to start.

[Spudboy]

Kelly's potential as a bridge guy is huge.

 

Catcher is fascinating to me - the ideal solution would be for Swihart to take the job (of the three, he is the only one with all-star raw talent). But he has to earn it on both ends, which is totally legit ... Leon's 6 weeks does not outstrip the remainder of his career, though he has earned the right to try. Vasquez only has to hit a little to be a pretty good starter - but he has not achieved that "little". If he could deliver a .260/.310 sort of line - even a fairly empty one - that would be sufficient. Of course with Vasquez he actual gamecalling is a question. The pitching staff performed much better with Leon - which I am not stupid enough to blame on the catcher wholly, but it is a datapoint which is out there.

 

Excellent post.

[mvp 78]

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/03/29/season-preview-world-series-playoffs-expert-picks-predictions?xid=socialflow_twitter_si

 

Of 8 SI writers:

 

8 have Sox in playoffs

7 have Sox winning division

4 have Sox in WS

0 have Sox winning WS

[Thunder]

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/03/29/season-preview-world-series-playoffs-expert-picks-predictions?xid=socialflow_twitter_si

 

Of 8 SI writers:

 

8 have Sox in playoffs

7 have Sox winning division

4 have Sox in WS

0 have Sox winning WS

 

Maybe because they think that the presence of Chris Sale will finally bring us down at some point in the playoffs.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe because they think that the presence of Chris Sale will finally bring us down at some point in the playoffs.

 

Yes, they're projecting his cancerous nature to kick in during the World Series.

[mvp 78]

Yes, they're projecting his cancerous nature to kick in during the World Series.

 

If JH trots out some ridiculous throwback unis in the playoffs, I hope Sale brings his scissors.

[Thunder]

Look, if we choke at some point in the playoffs (or before), you'll never hear the end of this. If we win the WS, or lose to a superior team at any point in the playoffs, I'll shut up about it.

[Emp9]

If JH trots out some ridiculous throwback unis in the playoffs, I hope Sale brings his scissors.

 

No, Manny somehow sneaks into the clubhouse and does it. Afterwards, everyone just shakes their collective head dismissively and says "Meh, that's just Manny being Manny, ya' know".

[mvp 78]

Look, if we choke at some point in the playoffs (or before), you'll never hear the end of this. If we win the WS, or lose to a superior team at any point in the playoffs, I'll shut up about it.

 

So, anything less than a WS ring and Sale is branded as a cancer that ruined this team. You know, the same team that was in last damn place 3 of 4 years and lost in the first round of the playoffs last year. Ok? That's a lot to put on him though.

[mvp 78]

No, Manny somehow sneaks into the clubhouse and does it. Afterwards, everyone just shakes their collective head dismissively and says "Meh, that's just Manny being Manny, ya' know".

 

If he's swinging well in Japan this year, they should bring him in for the stretch run. Hell, if Hanley gets hurt, they should bring him in just for the shirsey sales alone.

[User Name]

Look, if we choke at some point in the playoffs (or before), you'll never hear the end of this. If we win the WS, or lose to a superior team at any point in the playoffs, I'll shut up about it.

 

You should just shut up about it either way, because it's nonsense. Seriously.

[Kimmi]

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/03/29/season-preview-world-series-playoffs-expert-picks-predictions?xid=socialflow_twitter_si

 

Of 8 SI writers:

 

8 have Sox in playoffs

7 have Sox winning division

4 have Sox in WS

0 have Sox winning WS

 

Of 6 Globe writers:

 

6 have Sox in playoffs

3 have Sox winning division

3 have Sox in WS

0 have Sox winning WS

 

Of 5 Herald writers:

 

5 have Sox in playoffs

5 have Sox winning division

3 have Sox in WS

2 have Sox winning WS

[Fisk]

Of 6 Globe writers:

 

6 have Sox in playoffs

3 have Sox winning division

3 have Sox in WS

0 have Sox winning WS

 

Of 5 Herald writers:

 

5 have Sox in playoffs

5 have Sox winning division

3 have Sox in WS

2 have Sox winning WS

 

Damn Cubs

[Kimmi]

Damn Cubs

 

If only we had a guy like Theo...

[Fisk]

If only we had a guy like Theo...

 

Yes

[Northern Star]

triple digit wins. bookit.

 

No.

[Northern Star]

Can FredLynn be shown the door, plz?

[User Name]

We put with your whining BS. Why should we get rid of him? He contributes. We need more people posting, not less.