3rd Third III

[moonslav59]

Travis needs to play everyday, which is why I'm expecting the Red Sox to soon replace him with Sandoval or Holt.

 

But with Moreland's decline and history of weak hitting vs LHPs, we may need Travis on the big squad, even if in a more limited role than his further development requires.

[oldtimer]

Leon had had a few good batting stretches in the minors. Lin has had no hint of good offense before this year. (Note: Lin has been in the system for 6 years with over 2000 PAs.)

 

True, Leon's hot streaks were few and far between, but he did have several over his long minor league career (11 years in professional ball with over 3500 PAs).

 

OPS

2009 .701 (195 PAs in A-)

2010 .680 (385 in A)

2012 .856 (231 in A, AA, AAA)

(Note: Leon as a .720 career OPS in AAA in 498 PAs- higher than any other level)

2013-2014 Fall League: .938 (142 PAs)

2014 .692 in AAA (193)

2015 .676 in AAA (111)

 

While leon's minor league numbers are nothing to brag about, he had better numbers than Lin. (Note: he was older than Lin at all levels.)

 

 

 

The positives Lin brings are speed, range, a good glove and accurate arm. He is diminutive, and won't be a HR hitter, but he is a patient hitter and has a nice swing. If he can hit 250 at the ML level, he is an excellent utility infielder for the team. To me, he makes the older Holt's tenture on the team unnecessary. As Moon pointed out, we have better options at all positions than Holt and now with his injury history will we need him? It's a hard thing to deal with an older player this way, but we need to do what is best for the team

 

I don't see Sandoval or Abreau having enough value to stay on the roster either. Maybe there would be a question between Marerro and Rutledge as which right hand batter could help us most. It is interesting that this can even be a discussion item as Marerro was not in consideration 2 weeks ago but has played himself into contention to stay up. Travis is a good sub for Moreland. Moreland wil need time off during the 2nd half. It doesn't appear the Hanley is the right guy to sub at 1st. The problem is that would make more than 13 field players, so Travis will stay down for the time being. Maybe Marerro can handle subbing at 1st.

 

That would fill out position player if as Moon thought we send Fister down when e-Rod gets reinstated.

 

The subject of dealing with an everyday 3rd baseman still is open. We could bring Devers up soon and see if he can handle it or go out and try to trade for a replacement. But in doiing that we would have to get a guy who would perform materially better than those we currently have. If we go either with Devers or trade to fill that position, then I assume Marerro would be sent down. These are not easy decisions for JF and DD. I guess as fans we will stay tuned.

[Spudboy]

I have nothing against Holt, and IMO, his value to our team as a super utility guy goes beyond his numbers. If he can produce for us like he did pre-injury, I'd be happy to have him back.

 

Yup. The flexibility afforded the 25 man alone makes him very valuable.

 

No one seems to care about that, I guess.

[moonslav59]

Yup. The flexibility afforded the 25 man alone makes him very valuable.

 

No one seems to care about that, I guess.

 

having a player who can play just about every position but catcher DOES have high value. I have never doubted that. Sometimes the value is never even reaalized as Holt just being on the bench meant JF could PH or sub with someone else knowing he had Holt "in case of emergency" later in the game. I get this. really, I do.

 

My position has been this: with the loss of a DH only player like Papi, the need for a super sub is slightly diminished, although one could now argue that HRam is at least temporarily a DH only roster slot. The second point I have been making in recent months is that Holt is no longer the second or third best roster option at several positions like he was 2-3 years ago. At some positions, he might be, at best, the 4th or 5th best option. Even players listed just below him could be viewed as very close in value at that posittion.

 

The one weak area of depth we have right now is OF, as Young is the only true OF depth we have. Moreland can play in a crunch, and Selsky and Brentz offer some protection, but Holt's depth there could be needed in the second half.

 

To start the season, I had Holt ranked as such:

 

2B (probably his best position)

Pedey

Hernandez/Holt (tied)

Rutledge/Marrero not far behind.

 

3B

Pablo

Hernandez/Rutledge

Holt

Marrero/Dominguez/Lin (close behind)

 

SS

Bogey

Hernandez

Marrero

Holt

Lin

 

1B

HRam-Moreland

Travis

(Maybe Swihart someday)

Holt

 

OF

Betts/JBJ/Beni

Young

Holt

Selsky/Brentz

Moreland

 

Years ago, Holt was our best sub at 2B. 3b and maybe second best sub at SS and 1B. He even played quite a bit of OF.

 

I just don't see him ranked as highly anywhere anymore.

[Spudboy]

I do agree that with the addition of Young Holt's value is lessened.

 

Holt's presence can also allow carrying another pen arm at times when needed.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

But with Moreland's decline and history of weak hitting vs LHPs, we may need Travis on the big squad, even if in a more limited role than his further development requires.

 

That's true and they can't use Sandoval against lefties. . . .

 

They could play Hanley at 1b and DH Young against LHP, but they might not want to do that. The Red Sox should really trade for another bat, working on the assumption that they keep the Lin/Marrero platoon going at 3b until later in the season when Devers takes over. In this scenario, Sandoval gets released, Travis is sent to AAA (a trade acquisition replaces him on the 25 man roster), and Holt is optioned to AAA when his rehab is over.

 

It is also worth noting that Chris Young is not having a strong season. He could be replaced, perhaps by Holt if Holt starts hitting again.

 

They are both lefty bats, but I'm somewhat intrigued by J.Bruce and L.Duda (who has a 900+ OPS). They have some thunder in their bats and would add some depth and HR power.

Edited July 6, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[notin]

Yup. The flexibility afforded the 25 man alone makes him very valuable.

 

No one seems to care about that, I guess.

 

I'd care about it more if it was true.

 

Holt does play a lot of positions, but he plays very few of them well. He's a streak-hitting low power outfielder with very limited infield skills. Too bad he sees most of his playing time there. Really, he's Daniel Nava 2.0 who got miscast as an infielder.

 

I hope his career isn't over, but he's very replaceable as a utility infielder.

[moonslav59]

It is also worth noting that Chris Young is not having a strong season. He could be replaced, perhaps by Holt if Holt starts hitting again.

 

Young is one or two big games away from his recent norms.

 

One good thing is that he's hitting RHPs better than in a long long time (.807 OPS). Now, if he could start hitting lefties like he used to, he could end up with his best year ever, assuming he gets some PAs somehow.

 

(He's .627 vs LHPs this year--way way way below his great numbers over the last few years.)

 

With HRam as the permanent DH, it's hard to find enough PAs for Young, unless we platoon Beni. (JBJ is hitting lefties very well this year.) Beni is heating up, so I don't see us platooning him for very long.

 

[moonslav59]

I do agree that with the addition of Young Holt's value is lessened.

 

Holt's presence can also allow carrying another pen arm at times when needed.

 

I can't remember the last time we went any period of time longer than a day or two with 11 or 13 RP'ers. We always go with 12.

 

Holt does not allow us to send Travis down. We need Travis at 1b vs LHPs. While Holt's splits are about even over his career, I'll take Travis in a heartbeat.

 

Even with Pablo, Hernandez and Rutledge out hurt, I don't see Holt as being any big upgrade over Lin or Marrero at 3B, SS or 2B. Coming off and injury makes the choice even closer (and easier).

 

I'll take Young as our OF sub over Holt vs RHPs or LHPs at this point.

 

Maybe marrero and/or Lin come back down to earth soon, but as of right now, I would not send either down for Holt or Pablo.

 

[jad]

Just watched Devers play last night. Holy crap that guy is good in the field. Lots of tough plays. His swing looks wonky, even by the standards of AA-ball, but he seems to be doing ok statistically.

 

Incidentally BRING THE 20 SECOND CLOCK to MLB!!! What a joy to watch a game that moves right along without having pitchers take 30-40 seconds between every pitch. (Of course, all that was enhanced by the 30 hits, and the fact that the SeaDogs won 8-7 on the only HR of the night-- a walk-off grand slam on an 0-2 pitch -- don't think I've ever seen that!)

[jacksonianmarch]

You must trade for your 3b. Devers could have a Judgian career, but look at what Judge did on first promotion. He sucked. Miguel Cabrera and Andruw Jones type call ups turning into playoff hero don't happen often. Get a vet who can play and if Devers outplays him, then great for you

[Bellhorn04]

You must trade for your 3b. Devers could have a Judgian career, but look at what Judge did on first promotion. He sucked. Miguel Cabrera and Andruw Jones type call ups turning into playoff hero don't happen often. Get a vet who can play and if Devers outplays him, then great for you

 

I'm not really disputing your general point, but Bogaerts did well for us in the 2013 postseason, switching positions at that.

[Station 13]

3B has settled down for the last month now. Devers can wait for September.

[jacksonianmarch]

You guys are ahead in a flawed AL East. The Guardians are a better team when healthy and the Stros are a dominant team, especially when they get healthy. You're not beating those teams as is. If your goal is to win the AL East and get bounced out in the first round, then stay as is.

[Bellhorn04]

You guys are ahead in a flawed AL East. The Guardians are a better team when healthy and the Stros are a dominant team, especially when they get healthy. You're not beating those teams as is. If your goal is to win the AL East and get bounced out in the first round, then stay as is.

 

If we win the division, our chances of beating the Guardians or Astros are unlikely to hinge on upgrading at 3B. It'll be more about the pitching performances.

[Slasher9]

You guys are ahead in a flawed AL East. The Guardians are a better team when healthy and the Stros are a dominant team, especially when they get healthy. You're not beating those teams as is. If your goal is to win the AL East and get bounced out in the first round, then stay as is.

 

lol...you mad bro?

troll much.

we are 2-1 vs Astros and have yet to play a single game vs cleveland but you go on and wax on how we will get bounced if we don't upgrade at 3b with some aging veteran at the end of his career.

let me let you in on a little secret....only if you promise not to tell anyone........baseball (especially MLB) is very complex so i get that you need schooling....

Pitching = Parades (not 3b).

shhhhhhh. remember dont tell anyone........

[notin]

You must trade for your 3b. Devers could have a Judgian career, but look at what Judge did on first promotion. He sucked. Miguel Cabrera and Andruw Jones type call ups turning into playoff hero don't happen often. Get a vet who can play and if Devers outplays him, then great for you

 

A Judgian CAREER???? The guy has 450 at bats.

 

Getting a little ahead of yourself with his Cooperstown induction? I know it's hard to envision a player who gets off to a great start not having a grest career, or a great second season. But it happens, and if you need an example, I can think of one recent Story. (As in Trevor).

 

Or, as a Yankee fan clearly obsessed with moonshot home rund, maybe you are familiar with the record holder for the longest home in the old Yankee Stadium. A fellow by the name of Joe Charboneau. Look him up sometime...

[jacksonianmarch]

Slasher, I am not mad, just realistic. You cannot have an auto-out at a power position and expect to beat good teams in the playoffs. The bottom of your order is an abject joke and beyond Sale, your rotation isn't much to look at in a short series. You guys will win the AL East, but your team is not the juggernaut it was made out to be in ST. The loss of Papi looms LARGE on your offense and you need to spread the offense out. Having Marrero at 3b doesn't achieve that.

[jacksonianmarch]

A Judgian CAREER???? The guy has 450 at bats.

 

Getting a little ahead of yourself with his Cooperstown induction? I know it's hard to envision a player who gets off to a great start not having a grest career, or a great second season. But it happens, and if you need an example, I can think of one recent Story. (As in Trevor).

 

Or, as a Yankee fan clearly obsessed with moonshot home rund, maybe you are familiar with the record holder for the longest home in the old Yankee Stadium. A fellow by the name of Joe Charboneau. Look him up sometime...

 

His career has looked good so far! I am getting ahead of myself, I am just saying that kids making their debuts are utterly unpredictable. A great player could come up and suck for a bit. Judge was awful last year. This year, he is working on a triple crown. Relying on Devers to be an integral part of your potential championship team is unfortunately, a major risk

[Fisk]

Slasher, I am not mad, just realistic. You cannot have an auto-out at a power position and expect to beat good teams in the playoffs. The bottom of your order is an abject joke and beyond Sale, your rotation isn't much to look at in a short series. You guys will win the AL East, but your team is not the juggernaut it was made out to be in ST. The loss of Papi looms LARGE on your offense and you need to spread the offense out. Having Marrero at 3b doesn't achieve that.

 

Thanks for the unbiased commentary.

[notin]

His career has looked good so far! I am getting ahead of myself, I am just saying that kids making their debuts are utterly unpredictable. A great player could come up and suck for a bit. Judge was awful last year. This year, he is working on a triple crown. Relying on Devers to be an integral part of your potential championship team is unfortunately, a major risk

 

While I think trying Devers should have been done already, I agree he can't be counted on. (And I'm finding myself more and more impressed with Marrero).

 

I think the Sox were positioning themselves to try some internal options (Peralta, Devers), but the play of Marrero and Lin worked out well enough. I'm not so sure a July 3b acquisition in going to happen, and they will simply roll with the status quo until, say, mid to late August when they call up Devers. If he flops at first, Marrero/Lin go back to their current roles.

 

And Sandoval is put to sleep...

[moonslav59]

His career has looked good so far! I am getting ahead of myself, I am just saying that kids making their debuts are utterly unpredictable. A great player could come up and suck for a bit. Judge was awful last year. This year, he is working on a triple crown. Relying on Devers to be an integral part of your potential championship team is unfortunately, a major risk

 

Again, our window is 3-4 years NOT one.

 

Maybe Devers will not help this year, but getting a rental only helps for 1 out of 4 years. if we trade Devers for that rental as you suggest, we are risking getting 3 good years of production for 2 months and one playoff cycle.

 

Better to find a cheaper rental at 3B that allows us to keep Devers for our 2018, 2019 and 2020 playoff pushes.

[moonslav59]

While I think trying Devers should have been done already, I agree he can't be counted on. (And I'm finding myself more and more impressed with Marrero).

 

I think the Sox were positioning themselves to try some internal options (Peralta, Devers), but the play of Marrero and Lin worked out well enough. I'm not so sure a July 3b acquisition in going to happen, and they will simply roll with the status quo until, say, mid to late August when they call up Devers. If he flops at first, Marrero/Lin go back to their current roles.

 

And Sandoval is put to sleep...

 

I just don't see us leaving the 2017 3B job to Lin/Marrero/Devers/Rutledge/Holt/Pablo. Even if Lin is still over .900 by the deadline, I'm not counting on anything above .650 from August 1st onward.

 

Maybe we don't NEED a fix at 3B to win it all, but if we can find someone more reliable at a low cost, I think DD pulls the trigger.

[Fisk]

I just don't see us leaving the 2017 3B job to Lin/Marrero/Devers/Rutledge/Holt/Pablo. Even if Lin is still over .900 by the deadline, I'm not counting on anything above .650 from August 1st onward.

 

Maybe we don't NEED a fix at 3B to win it all, but if we can find someone more reliable at a low cost, I think DD pulls the trigger.

Right now I would have to say the cost would have to be very low. We have a 4.5 game lead, with a lot of subpar years from our lineup. Can expect better second halves from Bett, Beni and Hanley.

[moonslav59]

Right now I would have to say the cost would have to be very low. We have a 4.5 game lead, with a lot of subpar years from our lineup. Can expect better second halves from Bett, Beni and Hanley.

 

Expecting and getting are two different things.

 

HRam is a crap shoot. he could get worse. he could finish 2017 like 2015.

 

Beni is still too young to know anything conclusive.

 

I do expect Betts to finish strong, like he has the last 2 years.

 

One could also just as easily "expect" JBj to have another slump, Moreland to be more like Moreland, Leon and Vaz to dip a little, Lin/Marrero to revert to their minor league numbers, and Bogey to continue his recent struggles.

 

I'm optimistic about our offense finishing strong, but winning the division is not just what it's all about. Positioning ourselves as a ring contender in the playoffs is also a priority. We've gone almost totally "all out" to win in this 3-4 yar window. I realize the playoffs are by and large a "crap shoot", but it doesn't hurt to try and improve your odds a little bit, if it doesn't involve major sacrifices to our future chances.

 

I'm for looking hard at finding a cheap solution for the 2017 3B position. "Cheap" means not trading Devers, Groome or Travis, and hopefully not Chavis either. I'm also not talking about acquiring another Aaron Hill type, and maybe the cost will be too high to get anything better, but I'd try hard as I'm sure DD will.

 

I just don't want DD to try too hard.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Slav, you're on the right page. Yes, your window is 3-4 years long. But your GM has decimated your system to win NOW! Sacrificing a season in the middle of a window is unacceptable. You have a need. Do you need an MVP candidate at 3b? No. But if you can get a veteran who can hit reliably at the bottom of the order, do you do it? Heck yeah you do. I'm not saying deal Devers for a rental. I'm saying at least get a guy like Prado who should come cheap and gives professional AB's up there without giving up too much

[moonslav59]

Slav, you're on the right page. Yes, your window is 3-4 years long. But your GM has decimated your system to win NOW! Sacrificing a season in the middle of a window is unacceptable. You have a need. Do you need an MVP candidate at 3b? No. But if you can get a veteran who can hit reliably at the bottom of the order, do you do it? Heck yeah you do. I'm not saying deal Devers for a rental. I'm saying at least get a guy like Prado who should come cheap and gives professional AB's up there without giving up too much

 

I've already said I'm willing to give Ockimey and Lakins. I might even add Beeks for a very good rental, but I would not trade Devers, Groome or Travis for just about any 3B rental that is available. I might consider Chavis, but with a system so bad in power, it's hard to justify trading our top HR guy.

[Spudboy]

I've already said I'm willing to give Ockimey and Lakins. I might even add Beeks for a very good rental, but I would not trade Devers, Groome or Travis for just about any 3B rental that is available. I might consider Chavis, but with a system so bad in power, it's hard to justify trading our top HR guy.

 

How about Beltre? Not a rental. Would you move one of your choice guys for what remains of Beltre's deal?

 

If I am "going for it" this year I would strongly consider it.

 

I don't see any of the guys mentioned doing much for this team other than Moose and he won't be available.

 

To me, Beltre makes sense.

[Jack Flap]

Slav, you're on the right page. Yes, your window is 3-4 years long. But your GM has decimated your system to win NOW! Sacrificing a season in the middle of a window is unacceptable. You have a need. Do you need an MVP candidate at 3b? No. But if you can get a veteran who can hit reliably at the bottom of the order, do you do it? Heck yeah you do. I'm not saying deal Devers for a rental. I'm saying at least get a guy like Prado who should come cheap and gives professional AB's up there without giving up too much

 

You seem to be saying that the difference between rolling with Marrero/Lin/other internal options and getting someone like Prado amounts to "sacrificing the season," in which case I'd have to disagree. Looking around at the options on the trade market, I see some guys who could be helpful, but no one who's anywhere close to a guarantee to lead you to the promised land.

 

I think we make a deal if the details are right, but there should be no desperation here to overpay for an average player just to justify moves that have already been made.

[Spudboy]

You seem to be saying that the difference between rolling with Marrero/Lin/other internal options and getting someone like Prado amounts to "sacrificing the season," in which case I'd have to disagree. Looking around at the options on the trade market, I see some guys who could be helpful, but no one who's anywhere close to a guarantee to lead you to the promised land.

 

I think we make a deal if the details are right, but there should be no desperation here to overpay for an average player just to justify moves that have already been made.

 

 

Boom.