A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[cp176]

First the disclaimer... I have ZERO first-hand information as to what has happened in any ML clubhouse. This is just the way I see things based on my observation and experience.

 

Most players aren't a problem in the clubhouse as long as things are going well for them. It's when things go south that the problems start.

 

Josh Beckett is a good example of that. He was a leader. As long as he and the team weree winning he was the guy you wanted on the mound. He would lead the team to wins on the days when he pitched. When things went sour for him was when he became the problem in the clubhouse.

 

IMHO the dust-up with LaRouche and his son was what made Sale unhappy with the White Sox management. After that nothing the ChiSox could do would be right in Sale's eyes and that manifested itself in the throwback uniform incident. After that Sale was sick of the White Sox and they were sick of him.

 

The 2016 season may be an indication that Sale is a bit of a prima donna. Being very good will do that to some players. I don't see any doubt that there's a gamble involved in signing him but he could also very well be someone who just needs a change in scenery. Moncada aside, for the money he's making that's a risk I'd be willing to take. If he turns out to be a problem in Boston he'll be very tradeable.

 

At that point we have to hope that Moncada doesn't become the next Mike Trout (or Mookie Betts!)

 

It is all a guess, I think, from a fan's perspective what type of person he is. What I know about this guy is that he is young - he is good- and he has the mentality when on the mound that anyone in the game would love to see on their team. To be this good, which he obviously is, and to finally have a chance to play in the post season - It really is what is all about. We will see what type of person he is or becomes but based only on what we know, I think that we are beyond lucky to have this guy playing for us. Now, that being said, maybe someone knows something about him that we don't but personally I'm pretty pleased that he will be pitching for us.

[Fisk]

It is all a guess, I think, from a fan's perspective what type of person he is. What I know about this guy is that he is young - he is good- and he has the mentality when on the mound that anyone in the game would love to see on their team. To be this good, which he obviously is, and to finally have a chance to play in the post season - It really is what is all about. We will see what type of person he is or becomes but based only on what we know, I think that we are beyond lucky to have this guy playing for us. Now, that being said, maybe someone knows something about him that we don't but personally I'm pretty pleased that he will be pitching for us.

 

Never heard anything negative about him in the clubhouse. Have heard he was liked by the White Sox players.

[Kimmi]

Why? Is it because he didn't want to pitch in a shirt that had a collar on it?! I wouldn't want to wear that thing, either. Those guys in the 70's were all pissed that THEY had to wear it.

 

This team has too many guys who would never let one guy be a clubhouse cancer. Farrell is also not the type of guy who would tolerate that stuff. Sale's never pitched in the playoffs before. He wants to win badly. My guess is that he'll be an ideal teammate.

 

My guess is that Sale was fed up with the White Sox front office and the uniform cutting tantrum was the boiling point. Regardless of what the situation was, Sale was out of line.

 

That said, I'm not sensing in any way that Sale is going to be a problem in the clubhouse. He said he learned from his mistake. As you said, Farrell and the players will not allow that to happen and Sale really wants to win. I'm guessing he's much happier now and that his focus will be on getting his team to the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

I was not trying to compare him to anyone else. If you don't think, based on accumulated stats, that he presented a more up and down type pitcher (like most knuckleballers do ) that is fine. You are trying to make a statement here and all I get is that you really liked Wake. Good - so did the rest of us.

 

When you said, "If you value consistency, you might not want to be signing the knuckleballer," I took that to mean you feel Wake and knucklers in general are more inconsistent than other pitchers. If I misinterpreted what you said or meant, I'm sorry.

 

I think Wake was remarkably consistent over his slightly better than mediocre career.

 

He played for peanuts compared to what other pitchers doing less than he did made. He was team guy, and know that just about all of us really liked him, even if he made it difficult for some to watch.

[moonslav59]

Never heard anything negative about him in the clubhouse. Have heard he was liked by the White Sox players.

 

I've heard the same. I'm not going to make assumptions based on the uniform tantrum.

 

I'm just glad as hell we have...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

[moonslav59]

Sale turns 28 this March. He's easily one of baseball's best 5 pitchers in the past 5 years combined.

 

Here's a look at some 5 year category rankings.

 

WAR

35.7 Kershaw

27.7 Scherzer

26.4 Price

26.2 C Sale

22.7 Verlander

21.9 Felix

21.4 Kluber

21.0 Bumgarner

20.8 Lester

20.6 Greinke

20.5 Hamels

19.6 Cueto

19.6 Quintana

 

ERA-

55 Kershaw

67 Jose Fernandez

71 Cueto

73 deGrom

74 C Sale

75 Hendricks

75 Greinke

75 Syndergaard

76 Scherzer

77 Tanaka

78 Darvish, Roark, Price & Harvey

79 Arrieta & Felix

 

WHIP

0.89 Kershaw

1.04 Tanaka

1.05 Bumgarner, Scherzer & Jose F

1.06 C Sale

1.07 Arrieta & Hendricks

1.08 Cueto & Harvey

1.10 deGrom & Harvey

 

xFIP-

66 Kershaw

70 Syndergaard & Jose F.

73 Carrasco

74 Strasburg

75 C Sale

77 C Lee & Kluber

78 Price, Darvish, Felix & Pineda

 

Only 2 pitchers are in the top 6 in all these categories, so one could argue Chris Freekin' Sale has been the second best starter in MLB.

[Nick]

Sale turns 28 this March. He's easily one of baseball's best 5 pitchers in the past 5 years combined.

 

Here's a look at some 5 year category rankings.

 

WAR

35.7 Kershaw

27.7 Scherzer

26.4 Price

26.2 C Sale

22.7 Verlander

21.9 Felix

21.4 Kluber

21.0 Bumgarner

20.8 Lester

20.6 Greinke

20.5 Hamels

19.6 Cueto

19.6 Quintana

 

ERA-

55 Kershaw

67 Jose Fernandez

71 Cueto

73 deGrom

74 C Sale

75 Hendricks

75 Greinke

75 Syndergaard

76 Scherzer

77 Tanaka

78 Darvish, Roark, Price & Harvey

79 Arrieta & Felix

 

WHIP

0.89 Kershaw

1.04 Tanaka

1.05 Bumgarner, Scherzer & Jose F

1.06 C Sale

1.07 Arrieta & Hendricks

1.08 Cueto & Harvey

1.10 deGrom & Harvey

 

xFIP-

66 Kershaw

70 Syndergaard & Jose F.

73 Carrasco

74 Strasburg

75 C Sale

77 C Lee & Kluber

78 Price, Darvish, Felix & Pineda

 

Only 2 pitchers are in the top 6 in all these categories, so one could argue Chris Freekin' Sale has been the second best starter in MLB.

 

Yep....need to keep the eye on the big picture....world championship. Sale has brought us that much closer.

[moonslav59]

Other than Kershaw, I don't think there's any better pitcher in MLB than Chris FREAKIN' Sale!

 

Plus, his luxury tax contract cost is a small fraction of what pitchers of his quality are making on the open market.

 

I am so pumped up about this year!

[harmony]

Other than Kershaw, I don't think there's any better pitcher in MLB than Chris FREAKIN' Sale!

 

Plus, his luxury tax contract cost is a small fraction of what pitchers of his quality are making on the open market.

 

I am so pumped up about this year!

Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for each starting pitcher, projects Chris Sale with the ninth-highest 2017 WAR with the lefthander finishing in a three-way tie for third in RA9-WAR:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=20,d

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/9/14/3324826/the-correlation-between-ra9-wins-and-rwar

[moonslav59]

Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for each starting pitcher, projects Chris Sale with the ninth-highest 2017 WAR with the lefthander finishing in a three-way tie for third in RA9-WAR:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=20,d

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/9/14/3324826/the-correlation-between-ra9-wins-and-rwar

 

I'm not sure why.

 

He had the 7th best WAR last year and was just 0.1 away from 5th best. One guy ahead of him died (Jose F) and another one, Porcello, is likely to drop some.

 

He has the 4th best WAR over the last 5 years combined, and is still in his early to mid prime years. One guy ahead of him on this list, Price, placed 12th last year and is older.

 

My guess is Sale will finish somewhere between 2nd and 6th in 2017.

 

Maybe they factored in the BAF (Boston Adjustment Factor).

[moonslav59]

Some bench questions:

 

Who is best for 10-20 day replacement at these positions?

 

1B: Travis or Holt (assume HR is the DH for argument's sake)

 

2B: Holt or Hernandez?

 

3B: Holt or Rutledge (Hernandez)?

 

SS: Hernandez, Holt or Marrero?

 

[oldtimer]

Some bench questions:

 

Who is best for 10-20 day replacement at these positions?

 

1B: Travis or Holt (assume HR is the DH for argument's sake)

 

2B: Holt or Hernandez?

 

3B: Holt or Rutledge (Hernandez)?

 

SS: Hernandez, Holt or Marrero?

 

 

Depends when in the year the replacements are needed. Travis is likely to be ready fairly early in the year (assuming HR is DH). If so, he is probably the one when available.

 

I am a fan of Hernandez and think he could handle second and possibly short.

 

Why have Rutledge on the team if he is not the short term replacement for 3rd? Holt has shown he could handle 3rd.

[moonslav59]

Depends when in the year the replacements are needed. Travis is likely to be ready fairly early in the year (assuming HR is DH). If so, he is probably the one when available.

 

I am a fan of Hernandez and think he could handle second and possibly short.

 

Why have Rutledge on the team if he is not the short term replacement for 3rd? Holt has shown he could handle 3rd.

 

I'm not a big fan of Holt at 3B. I do think Rutledge is slightly better. I think they got Rutledge in case Pablo flops. We'd then have 3 guys to choose from- not 2: Rutledge, Holt and Hernandez.

 

Holt at 3B was part of the reason we signed Pablo.

 

I think Holt's best position is 2B, but I too like Hernandez a lot. I think I'd still give Holt the edge at 2B.

 

I like Hernandez at SS over Holt. Holt should only play SS for as long as it takes to get Hernandez or Marrero up from AAA.

 

I didn't mention the OF, since I do not think there's much to debate. Young should DH vs all LHPs, but if an OF'er goes down, Young would play FT in LF with Holt as his back-up. Maybe Holt could play vs some righties Young has trouble with.

 

Beni hurt> Young in LF.

 

JBJ hurt> Beni to CF & Young in LF

 

Betts hurt> Beni to RF? & Young in LF.

 

(Moreland can also be used in a pinch at a corner OF slot.)

[jacksonianmarch]

Rutledge is in position to be the platoon partner with Pablo

[moonslav59]

Rutledge is in position to be the platoon partner with Pablo

 

Yes, and as bad as Pablo is vs lefties, there's a good chance Rutledge starts 20% of the games at 3B.

 

However, although Holt bats left, he's actually slightly better vs LHPs over his career (but still worse than Rutledge):

 

B. Holt .709 vs LHPs/.704 v RHPs

 

Rutledge .721 v LHPs/.704 v RHP

 

Sandoval .673 v LHPs/ .835 v RHPs

 

Since 2014, Pablo has the worst OPS vs LHPs in MLB at .521.

 

If ever a platoon was in order...

.

[SoxnCycles]

Yes, and as bad as Pablo is vs lefties, there's a good chance Rutledge starts 20% of the games at 3B.

 

However, although Holt bats left, he's actually slightly better vs LHPs over his career (but still worse than Rutledge):

 

B. Holt .709 vs LHPs/.704 v RHPs

 

Rutledge .721 v LHPs/.704 v RHP

 

Sandoval .673 v LHPs/ .835 v RHPs

 

Since 2014, Pablo has the worst OPS vs LHPs in MLB at .521.

 

If ever a platoon was in order...

.

 

If Pablo is reduced to platooning with Rutledge, after all the work he has put in to lose weight, that's a disaster.

[moonslav59]

If Pablo is reduced to platooning with Rutledge, after all the work he has put in to lose weight, that's a disaster.

 

Getting in shape probably has little to do with his inability to hit lefties well.

 

He should have been platooned since 2013.

 

Last year, we only faced 37 left-handed starters. That's less than 23% of all games.

 

I don't think sitting Pablo about 1 out of 5 games is a disaster. Chances are, he'll PH and then play in some of those games he doesn't start.

[SoxnCycles]

Getting in shape probably has little to do with his inability to hit lefties well.

 

He should have been platooned since 2013.

 

Last year, we only faced 37 left-handed starters. That's less than 23% of all games.

 

I don't think sitting Pablo about 1 out of 5 games is a disaster. Chances are, he'll PH and then play in some of those games he doesn't start.

 

Considering his contract, it's bad.

If they have to platoon him that much, it'll be very disappointing.

[Dojji]

Pablo's contract is a sunk cost. If they can get him onto the blasted field without him breaking down immediately like last year, I'll take that as a clear improvement.

[a700hitter]

Panda was a very overrated player. Now, he is a shell of his overrated self.

[Hugh2]

I was probably against the Sandoval signing more than any other guy. I thought he was in decline and that steep decline would easily make his contract an over pay in money and years.

 

However I'm rooting for the guy now, everyone loves a comeback story. I would bet the farm on him (no pun intended) but I have at least some level of confidence in this man making a comeback this year. A man on a mission can be very dangerous.

[moonslav59]

Considering his contract, it's bad.

If they have to platoon him that much, it'll be very disappointing.

 

I agree, but I said it the day we signed him. "He's an obvious platoon player."

 

It was a horrible signing from the start, and I'm not Monday morning QB'ing here. I was dead against the signing before it even happened.

 

(I was also against the HanRam signing, but not by as much. (Note: I had hoped HR would play 3B, until I heard of the Pablo signing.)

[moonslav59]

I was probably against the Sandoval signing more than any other guy. I thought he was in decline and that steep decline would easily make his contract an over pay in money and years.

 

However I'm rooting for the guy now, everyone loves a comeback story. I would bet the farm on him (no pun intended) but I have at least some level of confidence in this man making a comeback this year. A man on a mission can be very dangerous.

 

My sentiments exactly!

[Eddy Ballgame]

I agree, but I said it the day we signed him. "He's an obvious platoon player."

 

It was a horrible signing from the start, and I'm not Monday morning QB'ing here. I was dead against the signing before it even happened.

 

(I was also against the HanRam signing, but not by as much. (Note: I had hoped HR would play 3B, until I heard of the Pablo signing.)

 

I can't see how any of the ops guys in the Sox front office ever thought signing Pablo was a good idea.

 

This reeked of Lucchino and PR from day one. "Ortiz is near the end, so let's sign another big, lovable guy with a "cute nickname" who seems to shine in the spotlight. He's perfect for this town. We need a 3rd baseman and there's not much else available, right?. He's still young, right? Can you imagine all of the "Panda" stuff we'll sell?"

I wish I was kidding.

[a700hitter]

I can't see how any of the ops guys in the Sox front office ever thought signing Pablo was a good idea.

 

This reeked of Lucchino and PR from day one. "Ortiz is near the end, so let's sign another big, lovable guy with a "cute nickname" who seems to shine in the spotlight. He's perfect for this town. We need a 3rd baseman and there's not much else available, right?. He's still young, right? Can you imagine all of the "Panda" stuff we'll sell?"

I wish I was kidding.

LL would have never pushed the selling the Panda stuff. The proceeds from MLB licensed products gets split equally among the 30 teams.

[Eddy Ballgame]

LL would have never pushed the selling the Panda stuff. The proceeds from MLB licensed products gets split equally among the 30 teams.

 

Not sure what you're trying to say here. They wouldn't have tried to sell Panda apparel?

Edited February 17, 2017 by Eddy Ballgame

[a700hitter]

Not sure what you're trying to say here. They wouldn't have tried to Panda apparel?

They would profit from Panda apparel no matter if he was on the Red Sox or some other team. The profit on MLB licensed apparel etc gets split 30 ways.

[Eddy Ballgame]

They would profit from Panda apparel no matter if he was on the Red Sox or some other team. The profit on MLB licensed apparel etc gets split 30 ways.

 

I think it's pretty safe to say that when a popular player switches teams, the sales of that player's MLB licensed jersey/t-shirts etc. increase exponentially, so my guess is that a marketing guy like Lucchino would obviously know this.

[a700hitter]

I think it's pretty safe to say that when a popular player switches teams, the sales of that player's MLB licensed jersey/t-shirts etc. increase exponentially, so my guess is that a marketing guy like Lucchino would obviously know this.

And 1/30th of that is all that the Red Sox would get. The Red Sox only get a 1/30th share of all MLB licensed revenue.

[moonslav59]

I can't see how any of the ops guys in the Sox front office ever thought signing Pablo was a good idea.

 

This reeked of Lucchino and PR from day one. "Ortiz is near the end, so let's sign another big, lovable guy with a "cute nickname" who seems to shine in the spotlight. He's perfect for this town. We need a 3rd baseman and there's not much else available, right?. He's still young, right? Can you imagine all of the "Panda" stuff we'll sell?"

I wish I was kidding.

 

I think they might have viewed Pablo as Papi light (pun intended).

 

Maybe they felt he was "clutch", because I hear team management people believe in that type of stuff.

 

I think they took a long view: upgrade offense that year and pitching the next year when so many FA aces were to be available.

 

Pablo and HanRam happened to be two of the best offensive players available that winter at areas they needed, although they forced HR into a position he never played.

 

I think the theory was sound, but the timing and execution fell way short.

 

Maybe they felt Papi would help Pablo get back to his previous level of play and continue blasting away in October.

 

HanRam was at least a legitimate hitter showing some signs of health concerns and up and down years, but no clear decline trend like Pablo.

 

I would have been fine with HanRam at 3B and signing Scherzer or re-signing Lester, but I still thought HR was a mistake too.