A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

Wake was so under appreciated.

 

For many many years.

[Fisk]

I always found it difficult to watch Wake. He was a very serviceable pitcher for us for years, but always afraid of that homerun ball or if runners on base a passed ball or wild pitch.

[Bellhorn04]

When Wake pitched that 3 inning stint in the Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS I honestly couldn't watch much of it. I was so sure it was going to end badly. I find it hard to watch even on DVD when I know they don't score. :-)

[Bellhorn04]

Wakefield had a lot of guts, I always thought. He gave you everything he had.

[Fisk]

Wakefield had a lot of guts, I always thought. He gave you everything he had.

He sure did.

[moonslav59]

I always found it difficult to watch Wake. He was a very serviceable pitcher for us for years, but always afraid of that homerun ball or if runners on base a passed ball or wild pitch.

 

1995-2011

HR/9

Sox 0.9

Wake 1.2

 

WHIP

Sox 1.36

Wake 1.35

 

ERA-

Sox 93

Wake 96

 

From 2002 to 2011, fangraphs placed his value at $83.5M while his actual salary was $28M over that period. They did not compute value before 2002.

[Fisk]

1995-2011

HR/9

Sox 0.9

Wake 1.2

 

WHIP

Sox 1.36

Wake 1.35

 

ERA-

Sox 93

Wake 96

 

From 2002 to 2011, fangraphs placed his value at $83.5M while his actual salary was $28M over that period. They did not compute value before 2002.

 

Again I did not say he was a bad pitcher I respect everything he did, but to watch him was painful. You do not have to show me stats every time I say something.

[moonslav59]

Again I did not say he was a bad pitcher I respect everything he did, but to watch him was painful. You do not have to show me stats every time I say something.

 

Yeah, I didn't take it that way.

 

Personally, I loved watching Wake pitch. He did well more than he did poorly. I think he had a 52% QS rate and was over 70% a couple years in a row for the Sox.

 

Towards the end, he was still a capable 5th starter type. Not having a capable catcher hurt. He only had over 10 WPs once up until his last few years- then it was like 4 out of his last 6 years with over 10.

[moonslav59]

I didn't like giving up Espinoza, but I was okay with this deal because we needed the pitching badly. The FO also sent a 'vote of confidence' message to the team by their willingness to trade for him.

 

Personally, I am less against the trade for Pomeranz than I am against the trade for Sale, even though Sale is a much better pitcher than Pomeranz. Much of that has to do with timing and need.

 

I know many think it's pointless to do these "what ifs", but it's winter, and there's nothing much to discuss.

 

Had we not done the Kimbrel and Pom trades, could we have pulled off the Sale trade plus this one?

 

Margot, Espinosa, Geurra, Allen, Asuaje for Quintana?

 

We'd have Sale, Quintana, Price, Porcello, ERod & Wright (No Pom)

 

We'd have someone like Clippard and another pen arm instead of Kimbrel (and with his money saved).

[a700hitter]

I am taking this opportunity to recruit new team owners for the 2017 TalkSox Mike Grace Memorial Fantasy League. As of now, it looks like we have 8 confirmed teams down from the 12 that we had last year. TalkSox members are welcome to join. Statheads/StatGeeks are woefully under-represented in this league, which is all about stats and nothing about intangibles. If you are already in the league, please spread the word as it was a fun and competitive league last year with 12 teams. Let's try to get 4 new teams into the league.

[cp176]

I always found it difficult to watch Wake. He was a very serviceable pitcher for us for years, but always afraid of that homerun ball or if runners on base a passed ball or wild pitch.

 

When Wake was on, he just seemed ace like - but when he was off - oh baby was it tough to watch. That is probably why the debate rages on with respect to knuckleball pitchers in general. If you value consistency, you might not want to be signing the knuckleballer. Probably why there were people out there who were for trading Wright last year when he was pitching so well.

[Fisk]

When Wake was on, he just seemed ace like - but when he was off - oh baby was it tough to watch. That is probably why the debate rages on with respect to knuckleball pitchers in general. If you value consistency, you might not want to be signing the knuckleballer. Probably why there were people out there who were for trading Wright last year when he was pitching so well.

You said it how I wanted to, they can lose it game to game and even inning to inning.

[moonslav59]

When Wake was on, he just seemed ace like - but when he was off - oh baby was it tough to watch. That is probably why the debate rages on with respect to knuckleball pitchers in general. If you value consistency, you might not want to be signing the knuckleballer. Probably why there were people out there who were for trading Wright last year when he was pitching so well.

 

Most good (not great) pitchers have good and bad streaks. The either "have it" or "they don't". I really never viewed Wake as being any more inconsistent than other 3-4-5 starters in MLB at that time.

 

He was basically a one pitch pitcher, so maybe it's more noticeable when that pitch is not working. He had no other pitch to fall back on like others did which I think helped stoke the image of him being up and down more than others. If you actually look at his numbers and game logs, he was pretty consistent from year to year and withing each season- no more- no less than other back end starters in MLB.

 

Remember, he also pitched in a hitter's park, in the steroid era and on teams that sometimes lacked in plus defense. At times, he had catchers who had no clue as to how to catch a knuckler. I guess one could blame the pitcher for that, but I never did. If a pitcher can throw a pitch that is hard to catch, imagine how hard it must have been to hit!

 

Part of being consistent is being healthy and giving innings. He went 14 straight seasons and 16 out of his 17 seasons with Boston with 140+ IP! He had 13 seasons with 154+ IP and 9 with 180+ IP. His ERA was between 4.13 and 5.14 in 14 of 17 seasons with the Sox (1 at 2.95, 1 at 5.48 and 1 at 5.34). His ERA- was over 103 just once in his first 15 seasons with Boston! It was under 98 ten out of his first 15 seasons. His career WHIP was rather high (1.35), but he was pretty consistent there too by coming within 0.12 of his career norm in 12 of his 17 seasons with us. (3 of the other 5 seasons he was below by more than 0.12.)

 

Except for his last season here, in sesasons with 19 or more starts, his QS% was always between 47% and 73%.

All 17 Sox seasons:

3 seasons over 67% QS's

6 seasons from 52% to 60%

5 seasons from 47 to 48%

3 seasons from 29 to 35%% (all when split between starting and relieving)

 

I think if we compare Wake to the top 3 & 4 starters in MLB at that time, he'll look just as consistent.

 

 

[moonslav59]

You said it how I wanted to, they can lose it game to game and even inning to inning.

 

So can just about every other fair to mediocre pitcher in MLB.

[moonslav59]

Travis Wood signs for $12M/2 or $18.5M/3 (option) with the Royals with no guarantee to make the rotation.

 

He'd have fit into our budget numbers, but I think saving luxury tax space for the deadline (or before) makes more sense than going after someone like Wood.

[moonslav59]

More on Pablo, including a video...

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/one-red-sox-teammate-says-pablo-sandoval-worked-his-tail-off-this-winter/

 

[cp176]

Most good (not great) pitchers have good and bad streaks. The either "have it" or "they don't". I really never viewed Wake as being any more inconsistent than other 3-4-5 starters in MLB at that time.

 

He was basically a one pitch pitcher, so maybe it's more noticeable when that pitch is not working. He had no other pitch to fall back on like others did which I think helped stoke the image of him being up and down more than others. If you actually look at his numbers and game logs, he was pretty consistent from year to year and withing each season- no more- no less than other back end starters in MLB.

 

Remember, he also pitched in a hitter's park, in the steroid era and on teams that sometimes lacked in plus defense. At times, he had catchers who had no clue as to how to catch a knuckler. I guess one could blame the pitcher for that, but I never did. If a pitcher can throw a pitch that is hard to catch, imagine how hard it must have been to hit!

 

Part of being consistent is being healthy and giving innings. He went 14 straight seasons and 16 out of his 17 seasons with Boston with 140+ IP! He had 13 seasons with 154+ IP and 9 with 180+ IP. His ERA was between 4.13 and 5.14 in 14 of 17 seasons with the Sox (1 at 2.95, 1 at 5.48 and 1 at 5.34). His ERA- was over 103 just once in his first 15 seasons with Boston! It was under 98 ten out of his first 15 seasons. His career WHIP was rather high (1.35), but he was pretty consistent there too by coming within 0.12 of his career norm in 12 of his 17 seasons with us. (3 of the other 5 seasons he was below by more than 0.12.)

 

Except for his last season here, in sesasons with 19 or more starts, his QS% was always between 47% and 73%.

All 17 Sox seasons:

3 seasons over 67% QS's

6 seasons from 52% to 60%

5 seasons from 47 to 48%

3 seasons from 29 to 35%% (all when split between starting and relieving)

 

I think if we compare Wake to the top 3 & 4 starters in MLB at that time, he'll look just as consistent.

 

 

 

Seriously why did you post all of this? Are you trying to plant some kind of thought that I might not have liked Wakefied? is someone arguing with you here about Wake's value? I think that Wake could look like an ace when he was on and less than a 5 when he was not. In your world maybe watching a knuckleball pitcher is no different that watching anyone pitch. Not in mine. I'm not talking about his accumulated stats. I liked Wake and appreciate what he gave to the Red Spx but you aren't going to convince me that watching him when he was off wasn't excruciating. Much more so when you consider how good he looked when he was on.

[cp176]

So can just about every other fair to mediocre pitcher in MLB.

 

When Wake was on, he was at least one pant load better than any mediocre pitcher in mlb.

[moonslav59]

Seriously why did you post all of this? Are you trying to plant some kind of thought that I might not have liked Wakefied? is someone arguing with you here about Wake's value? I think that Wake could look like an ace when he was on and less than a 5 when he was not. In your world maybe watching a knuckleball pitcher is no different that watching anyone pitch. Not in mine. I'm not talking about his accumulated stats. I liked Wake and appreciate what he gave to the Red Spx but you aren't going to convince me that watching him when he was off wasn't excruciating. Much more so when you consider how good he looked when he was on.

 

Not trying to convince you of anything. I certainly cannot change how you felt in the past, and I'm not sure I'd want to, even if I could.

 

I guess I'm trying to counter the feeling that he was very inconsistent or more so than other pitchers with similar overall numbers ("accumulated stats").

 

To me, it's hard watching any style of Sox pitcher when they "don't have it".

 

I'll certainly agree that when he was on, it was much better watching him than when he wasn't.

 

It wasn't fun watching Price in his first 7 or 8 games last year.

 

It was painful watching Buch the many times he was "off".

 

ERod has been up and down in extremes over his short career with us.

 

I could go on and on with histories of inconsistent Sox pitchers. I just don't think Wake was any different and he may have been even been more consistent than most with his type numbers.

 

[mvp 78]

More on Pablo, including a video...

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/one-red-sox-teammate-says-pablo-sandoval-worked-his-tail-off-this-winter/

 

 

Hype train! CHOO CHOO!!!!!

[moonslav59]

Hype train! CHOO CHOO!!!!!

 

Hard to see how trim he looks in the videos. He didn't look fat, but he didn't look that thin either.

[moonslav59]

Jeff Todd reports:

 

Red Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez was cleared for his first pen session of the spring after suffering a minor knee injury in winter ball action, as Jen McCaffrey of MassLive.com reports. There was added concern given the trouble Rodriguez experienced with the same joint last year, but he was able to throw 40 pitches without incident today. Boston has some depth in the staff, with Rodriguez slated to compete with Drew Pomeranz and Steven Wright for the final two rotation jobs, though maintaining that depth will hinge in no small part upon the ability of the 24-year-old to stay healthy throughout the coming season.

 

In ERod's 41 starts with the Sox, he has allowed 0-1 ERs in 18 of them!

 

Also, 0-2 ERs in 25 of 41 games.

 

Weird that he only has 2 games allowing exactly 4 ERs.

 

He has 8 games where he allowed 5 or more runs.

[mvp 78]

Hard to see how trim he looks in the videos. He didn't look fat, but he didn't look that thin either.

 

He'll never be thin. He just needs to show up at his normal SF weight. This is the best shape that he can get in. He just needs to keep the weight off during the season now.

[Thunder]

I'll say it now, so I can say I told you so 5 months from now: Chris Sale is a poison in the clubhouse. He will be a detriment to this team's morale, and will hold back the team's performance in some significant way. I still think we're a playoff team, but with Chris Sale, we're certainly not a championship caliber team.

[Fisk]

I'll say it now, so I can say I told you so 5 months from now: Chris Sale is a poison in the clubhouse. He will be a detriment to this team's morale, and will hold back the team's performance in some significant way. I still think we're a playoff team, but with Chris Sale, we're certainly not a championship caliber team.

 

You have any facts to base this on, from what I heard the white sox players universally respected him in the clubhouse.

[cp176]

Not trying to convince you of anything. I certainly cannot change how you felt in the past, and I'm not sure I'd want to, even if I could.

 

I guess I'm trying to counter the feeling that he was very inconsistent or more so than other pitchers with similar overall numbers ("accumulated stats").

 

To me, it's hard watching any style of Sox pitcher when they "don't have it".

 

I'll certainly agree that when he was on, it was much better watching him than when he wasn't.

 

It wasn't fun watching Price in his first 7 or 8 games last year.

 

It was painful watching Buch the many times he was "off".

 

ERod has been up and down in extremes over his short career with us.

 

I could go on and on with histories of inconsistent Sox pitchers. I just don't think Wake was any different and he may have been even been more consistent than most with his type numbers.

 

 

I was not trying to compare him to anyone else. If you don't think, based on accumulated stats, that he presented a more up and down type pitcher (like most knuckleballers do ) that is fine. You are trying to make a statement here and all I get is that you really liked Wake. Good - so did the rest of us.

[User Name]

I'll say it now, so I can say I told you so 5 months from now: Chris Sale is a poison in the clubhouse. He will be a detriment to this team's morale, and will hold back the team's performance in some significant way. I still think we're a playoff team, but with Chris Sale, we're certainly not a championship caliber team.

 

So was Roger Clemens, and how many rings does he have again?

[Fisk]

I was not trying to compare him to anyone else. If you don't think, based on accumulated stats, that he presented a more up and down type pitcher (like most knuckleballers do ) that is fine. You are trying to make a statement here and all I get is that you really liked Wake. Good - so did the rest of us.

 

I'm guessing he must be referring to a different pitcher because if you watched Wake, was never sure what you were going to get.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'll say it now, so I can say I told you so 5 months from now: Chris Sale is a poison in the clubhouse. He will be a detriment to this team's morale, and will hold back the team's performance in some significant way. I still think we're a playoff team, but with Chris Sale, we're certainly not a championship caliber team.

 

Why? Is it because he didn't want to pitch in a shirt that had a collar on it?! I wouldn't want to wear that thing, either. Those guys in the 70's were all pissed that THEY had to wear it.

 

This team has too many guys who would never let one guy be a clubhouse cancer. Farrell is also not the type of guy who would tolerate that stuff. Sale's never pitched in the playoffs before. He wants to win badly. My guess is that he'll be an ideal teammate.

[S5Dewey]

I'll say it now, so I can say I told you so 5 months from now: Chris Sale is a poison in the clubhouse. He will be a detriment to this team's morale, and will hold back the team's performance in some significant way. I still think we're a playoff team, but with Chris Sale, we're certainly not a championship caliber team.

 

First the disclaimer... I have ZERO first-hand information as to what has happened in any ML clubhouse. This is just the way I see things based on my observation and experience.

 

Most players aren't a problem in the clubhouse as long as things are going well for them. It's when things go south that the problems start.

 

Josh Beckett is a good example of that. He was a leader. As long as he and the team weree winning he was the guy you wanted on the mound. He would lead the team to wins on the days when he pitched. When things went sour for him was when he became the problem in the clubhouse.

 

IMHO the dust-up with LaRouche and his son was what made Sale unhappy with the White Sox management. After that nothing the ChiSox could do would be right in Sale's eyes and that manifested itself in the throwback uniform incident. After that Sale was sick of the White Sox and they were sick of him.

 

The 2016 season may be an indication that Sale is a bit of a prima donna. Being very good will do that to some players. I don't see any doubt that there's a gamble involved in signing him but he could also very well be someone who just needs a change in scenery. Moncada aside, for the money he's making that's a risk I'd be willing to take. If he turns out to be a problem in Boston he'll be very tradeable.

 

At that point we have to hope that Moncada doesn't become the next Mike Trout (or Mookie Betts!)