A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Fisk]

I was fortunate that I was poor.

 

I came out of college with $1500 debt. During my time, I BEOG/SEOG were available. I also had a very good summer job earning close to $2500 each summer. Of course the tuition for my state school was around $1800 for the year.

 

It was the middle class kids that got hurt.

 

My last comment on social issue....each child is deserving of good education. That's the only way out of poverty.

 

Totally agree education is the key to end poverty, when you can't fix the educational system, it becomes a never ending cycle.

[Spudboy]

I was fortunate that I was poor.

 

I came out of college with $1500 debt. During my time, I BEOG/SEOG were available. I also had a very good summer job earning close to $2500 each summer. Of course the tuition for my state school was around $1800 for the year.

 

It was the middle class kids that got hurt.

 

My last comment on social issue....each child is deserving of good education. That's the only way out of poverty.

 

Good stuff.

[moonslav59]

At the risk of opening a new can of political worms, "school choice" is mostly an illusion when looking to improve our education to those in greatest need.

[moonslav59]

What I project our general line-ups will be:

 

vs RHPs:

1. Pedroia

2. Bogey

3. Betts

4. HanRam

5. Bradley

6. Beni

7. Pablo

8. Moreland

9. Leon

 

vs LHPs:

1. Pedroia

2. Bogey

3. Betts

4. HanRam

5. Young

6. Beni

7. Bradley

8. Rutledge

9. Vazquez

 

I might start with this...

 

vs RHPs:

1. Beni

2. Bogey

3. Betts

4. Pedey

5. HanRam

6. Bradley

7. Pablo

8. Moreland

9. Leon

 

vs LHPs:

1. Pedey

2. Bogey

3. Betts

4. Young

5. HanRam

6. Beni

7. Brdaley

8. Rutledge

9. Vazquez

 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR....

 

It now appears there will be one big change in 2017: MLB will switch to a dugout signal for intentional walks, team and union sources informed Howard Bryant of ESPN The Magazine.

[oldtimer]

MLBTR....

 

It now appears there will be one big change in 2017: MLB will switch to a dugout signal for intentional walks, team and union sources informed Howard Bryant of ESPN The Magazine.

 

Overdue change. It will have a minor impact on the length of games but it indicates a willingness to change.

[Nick]

Sam Travis...looks to be our future 1B

 

"Hard-nosed player," Red Sox manager John Farrell said. "A grinder type, a blue-collar player. The way he went through drill work the first couple of days, there's no evidence of the ACL surgery that he had. He feels great. The work he put in on the rehab is certainly paying off."

 

The Chicago native has posted a .303 batting average, .364 on-base percentage, .453 slugging percentage, .816 OPS, 22 homers, 58 doubles, eight triples and 151 RBIs in 245 minor league games.

 

"He impressed last year in his first camp with his ability to impact the baseball and maybe the determination and aggressiveness he exudes when he's on the field," Farrell said.

 

Travis bats from the right side and has had success vs. both righties and lefties in his minor league career. That said, as written on MassLive.com in the offseason, he could potentially be eased into the majors at some point this year by platooning at first base with the left-handed hitting Mitch Moreland.

 

In that scenario, Hanley Ramirez then would become the full-time DH

[Nick]

More on Sam Travis....when DD is high on a player, we ought to listen.

 

 

"There was a large number of corner bats that were DH/first base/outfielders," Dombrowski said. "So when you looked at it, it looked like there were more players than needs with clubs when you analyze that. So we felt somebody would be left at the end in a position where they would be looking to get a job or not getting the dollars they wanted. There are still some people who are even out there at this point. So it really hasn't surprised me a great deal."

 

Dombrowski said he really likes the dynamic with Moreland and the way the club has shaped up. He said replacing David Ortiz with one player is impossible. Sure, the Red Sox aren't as good offensively. But Dombrowski said the team is better defensively with Moreland, a 2016 Gold Glove winner, at first, and with Chris Sale in the starting rotation.

 

He also pointed out first base prospect Sam Travis' talent/promise gave him motivation not to sign a first baseman/DH to a longterm contract.

 

"I think the other thing in our mind is that we really like Sam Travis a lot," Dombrowski said. "We don't think he's going to be ready this year at the beginning of the season because of the injury last year. But if you sign somebody for an extended time period as a first baseman/DH, you don't have room for Sam Travis as you go forward because you've got Hanley and you've got that other person. And so for us, we really felt it would be better to go on a short-term basis."

[moonslav59]

Sam Travis...looks to be our future 1B

 

"Hard-nosed player," Red Sox manager John Farrell said. "A grinder type, a blue-collar player. The way he went through drill work the first couple of days, there's no evidence of the ACL surgery that he had. He feels great. The work he put in on the rehab is certainly paying off."

 

The Chicago native has posted a .303 batting average, .364 on-base percentage, .453 slugging percentage, .816 OPS, 22 homers, 58 doubles, eight triples and 151 RBIs in 245 minor league games.

 

"He impressed last year in his first camp with his ability to impact the baseball and maybe the determination and aggressiveness he exudes when he's on the field," Farrell said.

 

Travis bats from the right side and has had success vs. both righties and lefties in his minor league career. That said, as written on MassLive.com in the offseason, he could potentially be eased into the majors at some point this year by platooning at first base with the left-handed hitting Mitch Moreland.

 

In that scenario, Hanley Ramirez then would become the full-time DH

 

It's guys like Travis, Swihart, Hernandez, Rutledge and possibly Devers later in the year that could really step it up and make a big difference this year.

 

I'd like to see hanRam continue to play 1B 20-25% of the time, so he can stay sharp for those away games against the NL.

[Eddy Ballgame]

It's guys like Travis, Swihart, Hernandez, Rutledge and possibly Devers later in the year that could really step it up and make a big difference this year.

 

I'd like to see hanRam continue to play 1B 20-25% of the time, so he can stay sharp for those away games against the NL.

 

If Hernandez & Rutledge are both playing any kind of significant role later this season, my guess is that there were some serious injuries.

[moonslav59]

If Hernandez & Rutledge are both playing any kind of significant role later this season, my guess is that there were some serious injuries.

 

One could easily begin the year as a platoon with Pablo, so no injury is needed there.

 

Pablo could struggle, even if healthy, so maybe one or both (or Holt) become more than just possible platoons. My guess is, if Pablo gets hurt or stinks, we might go after Frazier for a 2-3 month rental. Maybe we give a couple of our guys a look before doing so. There's a chance we try Swihart at 3B, if things go south at that position.

[Eddy Ballgame]

One could easily begin the year as a platoon with Pablo, so no injury is needed there.

 

Pablo could struggle, even if healthy, so maybe one or both (or Holt) become more than just possible platoons. My guess is, if Pablo gets hurt or stinks, we might go after Frazier for a 2-3 month rental. Maybe we give a couple of our guys a look before doing so. There's a chance we try Swihart at 3B, if things go south at that position.

 

I agree that if Pablo struggles, they'll look outside of the organization before they make Rutledge or Hernandez any kind of an everyday player. They are going to get Holt in the lineup at 3rd, so I don't see Rutledge or Hernandez in any kind of platoon situation, either.

 

I think that there would have to be some really crazy events that take place for Swihart to play any 3rd base next season. They really seem committed to him catching at this point.

[moonslav59]

I agree that if Pablo struggles, they'll look outside of the organization before they make Rutledge or Hernandez any kind of an everyday player. They are going to get Holt in the lineup at 3rd, so I don't see Rutledge or Hernandez in any kind of platoon situation, either.

 

I think that there would have to be some really crazy events that take place for Swihart to play any 3rd base next season. They really seem committed to him catching at this point.

 

Pablo is horrific against lefties, and while Holt actually hits lefties slightly better than righties, Rutledge is much better vs LHPs. I'd start the year with a Pablo-Rutledge platoon.

 

I agree with the commitment to catcher with Swihart, but if Pablo flops, and Swihart is hitting well in AAA, I could see the switch being tried out. We'd also have to be looking good with leon-Vaz at catcher to decide to move Swi to 3B. Lot's of "ifs", but it's possible.

[cp176]

here's the thing to that I see about prospects. I still really consider Benintendi and Swihart, as prospects even though it looks like Beni might be a can't miss one. When you add those two to Travis and Devers looks like we are in great shape going forward. Honestly you could actually even add Vazquez to that list if you were using my list. We gave up a bunch to get plenty of good stuff in return. No one likes to potential talent go and we for sure have all voiced our opinions but in the end it looks like things are going to work out. Is this where I say - thanks Ben? lol (just fooling around - no "snarkiness" intended at all)

[Eddy Ballgame]

Pablo is horrific against lefties, and while Holt actually hits lefties slightly better than righties, Rutledge is much better vs LHPs. I'd start the year with a Pablo-Rutledge platoon.

 

I agree with the commitment to catcher with Swihart, but if Pablo flops, and Swihart is hitting well in AAA, I could see the switch being tried out. We'd also have to be looking good with leon-Vaz at catcher to decide to move Swi to 3B. Lot's of "ifs", but it's possible.

 

Pablo is hitting right handed again, so he'll get a chance to face some lefties and again, Brock Holt is going to play some 3rd base. There won't be a Rutledge/Pablo "platoon." There are no guarantees that Rutledge makes the roster.

 

I don't think the Sox would ever consider Swihart at 3rd this season, unless there are a ton of injuries and no one is available via trade. They clearly regret putting him in left even though the circumstances were different than they are now, and I can't see a situation where they don't commit to him being a catcher for at least all of 2017.

[moonslav59]

Pablo is hitting right handed again, so he'll get a chance to face some lefties and again, Brock Holt is going to play some 3rd base.

 

Pablo sucked vs LHPs hitting from the right side too. To me, he has to prove he can hit lefties before I play him FT.

 

There won't be a Rutledge/Pablo "platoon."

 

Don't be so sure. He's about a hundred points better than Pablo vs LHPs no matter what side Pablo hits from.

 

There are no guarantees that Rutledge makes the roster.

 

True. Maybe the thought was that if Pablo flops, we might try a Rutledge-Holt platoon, at least until we trade for a FT 3Bman.

 

I don't think the Sox would ever consider Swihart at 3rd this season, unless there are a ton of injuries and no one is available via trade. They clearly regret putting him in left even though the circumstances were different than they are now, and I can't see a situation where they don't commit to him being a catcher for at least all of 2017.

 

Emergency situations arise. I don't think they viewed Swi as a LF'er this time last year. Things happen.

 

I think 3 ifs would have to happen to see Swihart at 3B this year, maybe 4.

 

1) Swihart is hitting very well at AAA, and we want to try and find aa way for him on our 25 man roster regardless of where he plays.

 

2) Leon and/or Vaz are doing well enough to not want to insert Swi in the catcher mix, at least in any major way. (I suppose he could play 3B vs RHPs and maybe C vs LHPs, being a switch hitter and all.)

 

3) Pablo flops or gets hurt. (Maybe if he just really sucks vs LHPs, they might think of bringing Swi up to platoon at 3B.)

 

4) Rutledge, Holt and Hernandez all look like worse options at the point where a decision needs to be made, and no quality 3Bman is available via trade at a reasonable cost (prospects & money).

 

I seriously doubt we see Swihart at 3B or DH this year, but I'd have said the same about LF last February.

[moonslav59]

Pablo vs LHPs as a RHB:

 

2015: .142 OPS (He was 2 for freakin 41! 43 PAs)

 

2014: .563 OPS in 205 PAs

 

2013: .686 in 167 PAs

 

This are totally unacceptable numbers over his last 415 PAs vs LHPs as a RHB!

 

If we aren't at least considering a 3B platoon, someone should have their heads examined.

 

Rutledge vs LHPs:

 

2016: .859 in 19 PAs

2015: .748 in 26 PAs

2014: .840 in 90 PAs

 

The sample sizes might look small, but he's done well vs LHPs in the minors too.

 

[Slasher9]

Pablo will play 145+ games at 3b this season.

he will not be platooned.

count on it.

[Slasher9]

also...i just realized.....

The World Series ended in Game 7 extra innings.

The Super Bowl ended in Overtime.

NBA finals went 7 Games.

(NHL blew it....only went 6 games)....

[Eddy Ballgame]

Pablo vs LHPs as a RHB:

 

2015: .142 OPS (He was 2 for freakin 41! 43 PAs)

 

2014: .563 OPS in 205 PAs

 

2013: .686 in 167 PAs

 

This are totally unacceptable numbers over his last 415 PAs vs LHPs as a RHB!

 

If we aren't at least considering a 3B platoon, someone should have their heads examined.

 

Rutledge vs LHPs:

 

2016: .859 in 19 PAs

2015: .748 in 26 PAs

2014: .840 in 90 PAs

 

The sample sizes might look small, but he's done well vs LHPs in the minors too.

 

 

I'm not saying that if Rutledge makes the team, he'll never be in there against lefties. What I'm saying is that Brock Holt is going to play some 3rd base, unless he's traded or injured, so their won't be a Sandoval/Rutledge "platoon."

 

As far as Swihart goes, again, the circumstances are completely different than they were last year. Coming up with a scenario where Swihart plays 3rd this season is about as fruitless as trying to come up to up with a scenario where Dustin Pedroia becomes the starting catcher.

[moonslav59]

Pablo will play 145+ games at 3b this season.

he will not be platooned.

count on it.

 

I never said he would be; I said he should be.

 

I said the same about CC, and that never happened.

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying that if Rutledge makes the team, he'll never be in there against lefties. What I'm saying is that Brock Holt is going to play some 3rd base, unless he's traded or injured, so their won't be a Sandoval/Rutledge "platoon."

 

I think Rutledge will make the team along with Holt, Young and Vazquez as bench players. Young should platoon at DH with hanRam, and hanRam should play 1B vs LHPs.

 

Whether Rutledge platoons at 3B or not depends on how well Pablo is doing, but if there is a platoon, I think it will be Rutledge not Holt vs LHPs..

 

I do think Holt might play some 3B vs LHPs, but I think Rutledge is better on defense and vs lefties at bat, although Holt has had some good years vs LHPs.

 

Holt vs LHPs:

 

2016: .350 in 45 PAs

2015: .807 in 128 PAs

2014: .763 in 180 PAs

 

 

As far as Swihart goes, again, the circumstances are completely different than they were last year. Coming up with a scenario where Swihart plays 3rd this season is about as fruitless as trying to come up to up with a scenario where Dustin Pedroia becomes the starting catcher.

 

If anything, things have chenged to the point where it's more likely Swihart will be used elsewhere.

 

He started out last year as our FT starting catcher. True, he was on a short leash as vaz was recovering, but he was higher on the catcher depth chart than this year.

 

Look, I agree the chances Swihart gets moved to another position are slim. I even said 3-4 things have to happen for him to be moved to 3B, so it's not like I'm advocating the move to 3B.

 

Swi at 3B is way more likely than Pedey being moved anywhere, especially catcher. IMO, Swihart will eventually play at another position more than catch. It most likely will not be this year. I cannot say that about Pedey.

Edited February 22, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

By Jeff Todd | February 22, 2017 at 1:15pm CDT

 

The Red Sox are embarking upon a transition from their old information system (“Carmine”) to a new one (“Beacon”) that will support all of the team’s critical analytics work, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that the club . The changing nature of data, a shifting focus in analyzing it, and new means of digesting it have all occasioned the initiative, as Speier explains. Readers interested in that element of the baseball decisionmaking process, or fans of the club, will want to give the piece a full read.

 

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/02/22/the-red-sox-are-retiring-carmine-for-new-analytics-machine/z6UlF4IIGzY3Q3lQQIBK2N/story.html

 

 

The Red Sox placed a bid on veteran reliever Koji Uehara before he signed on with the Cubs, manager John Farrell tells Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald (via Twitter). Farrell hinted that it fell shy of the $6MM guaranteed by Chicago. The offer, he said, was not “to what [uehara] expected.” Boston acquired a new setup option in Tyler Thornburg before Uehara put pen to paper with the Cubs, but it’s unclear just when those discussions took place.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'm not saying that if Rutledge makes the team, he'll never be in there against lefties. What I'm saying is that Brock Holt is going to play some 3rd base, unless he's traded or injured, so their won't be a Sandoval/Rutledge "platoon."

 

I think Rutledge will make the team along with Holt, Young and Vazquez as bench players. Young should platoon at DH with hanRam, and hanRam should play 1B vs LHPs.

 

Whether Rutledge platoons at 3B or not depends on how well Pablo is doing, but if there is a platoon, I think it will be Rutledge not Holt vs LHPs..

 

I do think Holt might play some 3B vs LHPs, but I think Rutledge is better on defense and vs lefties at bat, although Holt has had some good years vs LHPs.

 

Holt vs LHPs:

 

2016: .350 in 45 PAs

2015: .807 in 128 PAs

2014: .763 in 180 PAs

 

 

As far as Swihart goes, again, the circumstances are completely different than they were last year. Coming up with a scenario where Swihart plays 3rd this season is about as fruitless as trying to come up to up with a scenario where Dustin Pedroia becomes the starting catcher.

 

If anything, things have chenged to the point where it's more likely Swihart will be used elsewhere.

 

He started out last year as our FT starting catcher. True, he was on a short leash as vaz was recovering, but he was higher on the catcher depth chart than this year.

 

Look, I agree the chances Swihart gets moved to another position are slim. I even said 3-4 things have to happen for him to be moved to 3B, so it's not like I'm advocating the move to 3B.

 

Swi at 3B is way more likely than Pedey being moved anywhere, especially catcher. IMO, Swihart will eventually play at another position more than catch. It most likely will not be this year. I cannot say that about Pedey.

 

I was kidding about Pedroia. The point is that they need to find out if Swihart can catch. He could very well turn into a BJ Surhoff type some day and I don't think anyone would be surprised by it, but for right now, this season, unless he tells them that he no longer wants to catch, he's going to catch. That seems pretty clear to me.

 

I think that one whole hell of a lot more than 4 things would have to happen for Swihart to be in the 3rd base mix this season, which is why I mentioned Pedroia catching.

 

As far as Holt goes, they are going to try to get him in the line-up more than Rutledge and 3rd is the most logical spot, barring injury.

[moonslav59]

I was kidding about Pedroia. The point is that they need to find out if Swihart can catch. He could very well turn into a BJ Surhoff type some day and I don't think anyone would be surprised by it, but for right now, this season, unless he tells them that he no longer wants to catch, he's going to catch. That seems pretty clear to me.

 

I totally agree, but the very same or more could have been said about Swihart last February. We've been talking about the Swihart vs Vazquez issue for years, and now leon is in the mix, and Swihart fell from catcher's grace last April. To me, the "need to find out" is actually less this year, but I certainly would like toi find out once and for all, so we can do what needs to be done with some certainty.

 

I think that one whole hell of a lot more than 4 things would have to happen for Swihart to be in the 3rd base mix this season, which is why I mentioned Pedroia catching.

 

As far as Holt goes, they are going to try to get him in the line-up more than Rutledge and 3rd is the most logical spot, barring injury.

 

I do think they want to get Holt some semi-regular playing time- not enough to burn him out, but enough to keep him somewhat fresh. I just think Rutledge is a better defender and better hitter vs LHPs. Whether they platoon Pablo fully, partially or not at all, his days of rest will come vs lefties, so that's at least the scenario we should be looking at.

 

I like Holt a lot, but to me, he's really our best sub at 2B. I like Hernandez slightly more at SS- same with Rutledge at 3B. Shaw is probably better at 1B, and Young in LF, however keeping Young at DH vs LHPs might have more value than trying to find a DH vs LHPs, so Young can play LF.

[Kimmi]

Overdue change. It will have a minor impact on the length of games but it indicates a willingness to change.

 

I disagree that it is an overdue change. I will go on record as saying that I disapprove of this change. And yes, it will have a very minor impact on the length of the games.

[Kimmi]

here's the thing to that I see about prospects. I still really consider Benintendi and Swihart, as prospects even though it looks like Beni might be a can't miss one. When you add those two to Travis and Devers looks like we are in great shape going forward. Honestly you could actually even add Vazquez to that list if you were using my list. We gave up a bunch to get plenty of good stuff in return. No one likes to potential talent go and we for sure have all voiced our opinions but in the end it looks like things are going to work out. Is this where I say - thanks Ben? lol (just fooling around - no "snarkiness" intended at all)

 

Fooling around or not, you should absolutely thank Ben for the great state of our team.

 

FTR, I don't think that Beni should be considered a prospect, and the fact that he is considered one is a little misleading in terms of the state of our farm system.

[Kimmi]

Pablo will play 145+ games at 3b this season.

he will not be platooned.

count on it.

 

All aboard the Pablo bandwagon! Woot! Woot!

[Fisk]

All aboard the Pablo bandwagon! Woot! Woot!

 

I am right with you on that wagon.

[Kimmi]

I am right with you on that wagon.

 

I know.