A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Fisk]

I've been super high on Espi since the start.

 

People still talk about the Bagwell trade, so I think there is a chance we'll be talking about this trade for many years to come.

 

We will get more out of Pom then a couple months of Anderson, and the odds that Espinoza has a hall of fame career like Bagwell are minuscule.

[jacksonianmarch]

That is assuming Pom doesn't end up needing TJS and is out until he hits FA

[Fisk]

That is assuming Pom doesn't end up needing TJS and is out until he hits FA

 

What he contributed last year is already more then Anderson. I think if they thought he needed Tommy John they would have rescinded the trade.

[Nick]

Looks like we can go with 4 starters for while, assuming pitching every 5th day

[moonslav59]

We will get more out of Pom then a couple months of Anderson, and the odds that Espinoza has a hall of fame career like Bagwell are minuscule.

 

1) He doesn't need to be HOF to end up producing way more than even what a good Pom may give us in 2 years.

 

2) Pom may not give us much- making what Espi needs to give barely allstar material to be a big gain.

 

3) Espi has a significant chance at being a very very good player.

[moonslav59]

What he contributed last year is already more then Anderson. I think if they thought he needed Tommy John they would have rescinded the trade.

 

That's assuming our medical staff knows what they are doing.

[moonslav59]

Looks like we can go with 4 starters for while, assuming pitching every 5th day

 

We have 2 days off in April (the 7th and 14th) and then the next on May 2nd.

 

We can do with out a 5th starter for one rotation. We will need a 5th starter for our 7th game of the season. The way I figure it, our 5th starter will get 4 starts in April as the others get 5 each.

 

[cp176]

1) He doesn't need to be HOF to end up producing way more than even what a good Pom may give us in 2 years.

 

2) Pom may not give us much- making what Espi needs to give barely allstar material to be a big gain.

 

3) Espi has a significant chance at being a very very good player.

 

The other point of view is just as solid.

Pom has given us something already. He is young and he still could become better than he has been.

[moonslav59]

The other point of view is just as solid.

Pom has given us something already. He is young and he still could become better than he has been.

 

Certainly he could.

 

I wasn't thrilled by what he gave us "already".

 

He finished 6th in IP and 10th in team pitching WAR.

 

4.59 ERS/1.369 WHIP

 

I think Sox management expected much better than that.

 

I'm not trying to bash Pom. As much as I hated the deal, I like Pom. I expected him to do better last year, and I'm expecting him to do well, if healthy for the next two year. I just think Espi is going to be something very very special.

[Fisk]

1) He doesn't need to be HOF to end up producing way more than even what a good Pom may give us in 2 years.

 

2) Pom may not give us much- making what Espi needs to give barely allstar material to be a big gain.

 

3) Espi has a significant chance at being a very very good player.

 

You compared it to the Bagwell trade, Bagwells a hall of famer. Sorry but the odds are against Espinoza being a very good player, especially an allstar.

[Fisk]

That's assuming our medical staff knows what they are doing.

 

I'm quite certain our medical staff knows what they are doing.

[cp176]

Certainly he could.

 

I wasn't thrilled by what he gave us "already".

 

He finished 6th in IP and 10th in team pitching WAR.

 

4.59 ERS/1.369 WHIP

 

I think Sox management expected much better than that.

 

I'm not trying to bash Pom. As much as I hated the deal, I like Pom. I expected him to do better last year, and I'm expecting him to do well, if healthy for the next two year. I just think Espi is going to be something very very special.

 

thrilled or not - he gave us something which is more than Espinoza would give us (if anything ) for a long time.

By continually bringing it up and continually ripping the trade, you are bashing Pom.

No one likes to give up young prospects particularly pitchers. It is a trade that may or may not work out. I know what all of the scouts said about Espinoza by the way. Hope it works out for him. And no I do not think that trade represents a win now at all costs mentality. We all need new material.

[cp176]

That's assuming our medical staff knows what they are doing.

 

 

No one likes to see anyone injured but if I had to bet, yes I would bet that the Red Sox medical staff knows what it is doing. It is a first class operation. I don't follow any other team on a day to day basis so I have no idea what other franchises are going through. Probably pretty similar.

[Fisk]

No one likes to see anyone injured but if I had to bet, yes I would bet that the Red Sox medical staff knows what it is doing. It is a first class operation. I don't follow any other team on a day to day basis so I have no idea what other franchises are going through. Probably pretty similar.

 

You are exactly right every other team goes through the same things. My guess with all the money John Henry spends, he's not going to cut corners on his medical staff.

[Bellhorn04]

What I read this morning on Pomeranz and Wright doesn't sound so bad. They're bringing them along slowly, that kind of thing.

[Fisk]

I think a lot of fans go automatically to worst case scenario. Not good news but in no way means Pom needs Tommy John or Wright will miss significant time.

[S5Dewey]

Certainly he could.

 

I'm not trying to bash Pom. As much as I hated the deal, I like Pom. I expected him to do better last year, and I'm expecting him to do well, if healthy for the next two year. I just think Espi is going to be something very very special.

 

And therein lies the crux. I have to admit that this trade is looking worse all the time but it has little to do with Espinoza. You're comparing what Pom is to what you expect Espi to be - which is "very very special". Maybe the problem isn't Pom, but rather your expectations for Espi.

 

I'm grateful that we have a contender this year. As the guy says, "Every day that I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations is a pretty good day".

Edited February 14, 2017 by S5Dewey

[cp176]

And therein lies the crux. I have to admit that this trade is looking worse all the time but it has little to do with Espinoza. You're comparing what Pom is to what you expect Espi to be - which is "very very special". Maybe the problem isn't Pom, but rather your expectations for Espi.

 

I'm grateful that we have a contender this year. As the guy says, "Every day that I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations is a pretty good day".

 

That's what I was trying to say I think. You came up with a way to say it!

[moonslav59]

And therein lies the crux. I have to admit that this trade is looking worse all the time but it has little to do with Espinoza. You're comparing what Pom is to what you expect Espi to be - which is "very very special". Maybe the problem isn't Pom, but rather your expectations for Espi.

 

I'm grateful that we have a contender this year. As the guy says, "Every day that I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations is a pretty good day".

 

My beef was not with Pom. I liked and still like him. As you feel, I'm more and more feeling worse about his end of the deal.

 

I didn't expect Pom to reach the full potential of Espi, nor did I expect him to repeat his numbers in SD 2016. I did expect him to do better than a 1.4 WHIP. The injury issue is probably the reason he was that bad, but injuries count when evaluating a trade post-trade. Everyone knows I hated the trade day one, and right from the start I said it wasn't about Pom.

 

I se it like this: we traded 5-6 years of team control with Espi for 2.5 years of Pom.

 

I get why we did it. We needed a starter and he came with 2 more years after 2016.

 

I get that he was/is more of a proven commodity, and Espi is speculative value only.

 

To me, it was more about double the control years, and my belief that in 3-4 years, we will not be able to keep all our stars. Having a low cost pitcher to take over for Porcello or C Sale could solve more than one problem. If Espi can replace one of those two without a big drop off in production, we could use the money saved to keep one more of our stars. I'm not afraid to look that far ahead.

 

I realize Espi might amount to no more than Owens or Barnes. I get that, but his upside is enormous.

 

I'd have been fine with trading Moncada, Espi or Kopech, Basabe and Diaz for Sale last summer. We'd still have Kopech or Espi AND Sale.

 

I know that sounds like I'm contradicting myself, since that sounds like it was about Pom not Espi, but 3.5 years of Sale vs 2.5 of Pom is night and day..

[moonslav59]

Of course I hated the trade, because I believe Espi will be better than Pom (or the same but for double the years at a lower cost).

 

I know I can be wrong on this.

 

I also know it's not always fair to judge a trade or a GM by how trades ended up working out. We needed a starter, and trading for a 2 month rental would have been costly too. I'm glad we got 2.5 years not 0.33.

 

I'm bummed Pom's injury is lingering, but I hated the deal before I found out about the pre-existing condition- now it looks worse.

Edited February 14, 2017 by moonslav59

[cp176]

Of course I hated the trade, because I believe Espi will be better than Pom (or the same but for double the years at a lower cost).

 

I know I can be wrong on this.

 

I also know it's not always fair to judge a trade or a GM by how trades ended up working out. We needed a starter, and trading for a 2 month rental would have been costly too. I'm glad we got 2.5 years not 0.33.

 

I'm bummed Pom's injury is lingering, but I hated the deal before I found out about the pre-existing condition- now it looks worse.

 

I think you hated the deal!

[moonslav59]

I think you hated the deal!

 

Yes, but I don't hate Pom.

[Spudboy]

What I read this morning on Pomeranz and Wright doesn't sound so bad. They're bringing them along slowly, that kind of thing.

 

When I mentioned this I was not forecasting gloom and doom. Yeah, it's wise to start these guys off slowly.

 

However, for a brief period we all saw starting pitching as a real strength for this team.

 

Now with Buch gone and three prospective starters dealing with injuries we need to be somewhat concerned.

 

DD painted a rosy picture of our rotation depth speaking in positive if not glowing terms of the three young starters in Pawtucket.

 

I am not that confident that any one of them can get it done if called upon.

[moonslav59]

When I mentioned this I was not forecasting gloom and doom. Yeah, it's wise to start these guys off slowly.

 

However, for a brief period we all saw starting pitching as a real strength for this team.

 

Now with Buch gone and three prospective starters dealing with injuries we need to be somewhat concerned.

 

DD painted a rosy picture of our rotation depth speaking in positive if not glowing terms of the three young starters in Pawtucket.

 

I am not that confident that any one of them can get it done if called upon.

 

I'm not very confident either, and hopefully we don't need 30+ starts out of our 8 to whatever starters.

 

I've all but given up on Owens and Johnson with Elias not far behind. Kyle Kendrick and Shawn Haviland are not going to win us a ring either, but I'm not sure our 8-12 starts are much worse than most teams, so unless we have more injuries than others, we shouldn't lose too much ground.

 

We have to hope no more than one starter is out at the same time.

[Kimmi]

This is the deal I have the biggest beef with. I realize Espi is just potential value, but his upside is so damn high, I shudder at the thought of what we might have lost.

 

I didn't like giving up Espinoza, but I was okay with this deal because we needed the pitching badly. The FO also sent a 'vote of confidence' message to the team by their willingness to trade for him.

 

Personally, I am less against the trade for Pomeranz than I am against the trade for Sale, even though Sale is a much better pitcher than Pomeranz. Much of that has to do with timing and need.

[Kimmi]

If you were referring to Wake. Wake was an iron man.

 

Wake was so under appreciated.

[Kimmi]

I'm quite certain our medical staff knows what they are doing.

 

They probably are, but they certainly have given me reason to question them.

[Kimmi]

When I mentioned this I was not forecasting gloom and doom. Yeah, it's wise to start these guys off slowly.

 

However, for a brief period we all saw starting pitching as a real strength for this team.

 

Now with Buch gone and three prospective starters dealing with injuries we need to be somewhat concerned.

 

DD painted a rosy picture of our rotation depth speaking in positive if not glowing terms of the three young starters in Pawtucket.

 

I am not that confident that any one of them can get it done if called upon.

 

While I understand the reason for trading Buchholz, and getting under the tax limit this year is no small thing, I would have preferred to keep Buch. Pitching depth can be gone in the blink of an eye. Thankfully, it doesn't sound like the injuries to Wright and Pom are anything the team is too concerned with.

 

On a related note, I cannot believe that ERod is working out with the Venezuelan team and is still a possibility to pitch in the WBC. After re-tweaking his knee, that should have been the end of that. And if either Wright's or Pom's injuries are more serious than we think, that's all the more reason for ERod to not risk his health.

[Spudboy]

While I understand the reason for trading Buchholz, and getting under the tax limit this year is no small thing, I would have preferred to keep Buch. Pitching depth can be gone in the blink of an eye. Thankfully, it doesn't sound like the injuries to Wright and Pom are anything the team is too concerned with.

 

On a related note, I cannot believe that ERod is working out with the Venezuelan team and is still a possibility to pitch in the WBC. After re-tweaking his knee, that should have been the end of that. And if either Wright's or Pom's injuries are more serious than we think, that's all the more reason for ERod to not risk his health.

 

I think that it's nuts. DD is not as concerned, however.

[moonslav59]

I didn't like giving up Espinoza, but I was okay with this deal because we needed the pitching badly. The FO also sent a 'vote of confidence' message to the team by their willingness to trade for him.

 

Personally, I am less against the trade for Pomeranz than I am against the trade for Sale, even though Sale is a much better pitcher than Pomeranz. Much of that has to do with timing and need.

 

I get your point. Once we had Pom (and still had Buch), the need for Sale was not as great, but my position is that guys like Sale don't come along very often- low cost, still young, multiple years of control and top ace history. You gotta pounce as long as the return is not wildly too much.

 

Here's how I rank DD's moves from the bottom up:

 

1) Pomeranz

2) Kimbrel

3) Price

 

(This doesn't mean if any one of these deals did not happen, some other one or ones would not have been called for and done.)

 

From the top:

1) Sale

2) Thornburg

3) Ziegler

 

Others (somewhere in the middle): Carson Smith, Young signing, Mitch Moreland signing, Aaron Hill, F Abad, Buch's option & trade,