Postseason Happenings 2016

[a700hitter]

A fiesta of conformation bias and mythmaking ...

 

David Ortiz is justifiably a legend who had sub .700 OPSs in 7 of the 17 postseason series he played in. (and 3 different ones where he had a batting average below .100 - and one of those series containing one of those legendary clutch moments)

 

Alex Rodriguez is notably unclutch while being absolutely the runaway best player in a World Series run

 

David Price gets called un-clutch while coming out of the pen and saving the highest leverage spot of his career 8 years ago.

 

Players are multitudes - we (and they) see what we want to see.

I take much more seriously the opinions of those who strapped on the gear and competed. Your post to me means nothing in comparison to that.

[sk7326]

I take much more seriously the opinions of those who strapped on the gear and competed. Your post to me means nothing in comparison to that.

 

I take players seriously when they talk about what leadership is, the stuff they have to do to get ready - and what really matters to them ... stuff about the job of playing baseball, which I clearly do not know anything about - that is where the human element it.

 

Results/output can be measured pretty objectively. Clutchy McClutcherson stuff would show up in the results. Guys who soiled their drawers under pressure would be org players in places like Greenville or Altoona.

[Bellhorn04]

Clutch will always be extremely difficult to measure for hitters. Even if they are clutch they still fail most of the time. The advantage always lies with the pitcher and the defense.

[a700hitter]

I take players seriously when they talk about what leadership is, the stuff they have to do to get ready - and what really matters to them ... stuff about the job of playing baseball, which I clearly do not know anything about - that is where the human element it.

 

Results/output can be measured pretty objectively. Clutchy McClutcherson stuff would show up in the results. Guys who soiled their drawers under pressure would be org players in places like Greenville or Altoona.

I agree with those who have competed at that level. They know best. Stats can't measure the mental part of the game.

[cp176]

I take much more seriously the opinions of those who strapped on the gear and competed. Your post to me means nothing in comparison to that.

 

It is what I love about the game. It is still rough and unpredictable based primarily on the people doing the work on the field. Most of them are still old school playing a beautifully old school game. My stat line would have indicated that I rarely made an error. The problem was the time they occurred. kind of luck putting- you seem to never miss until it matters. There are others who never seem to make one until it matters most.

[sk7326]

I agree with those who have competed at that level. They know best. Stats can't measure the mental part of the game.

 

Stats don't purport to ... they measure results ... the physical, mental - whatever - are the stuff that goes into getting results. If measurable results aren't there - then there is a deficiency in the other stuff (physical, mental, general character, body odor, et al.).

 

Players are expert on the inputs (mostly). I am sure Koosman was more liked than Seaver - Seaver's results were better, when the games mattered a lot and when they mattered less. That is mastery of the mental, physical whatever aspects.

 

The "stats don't measure" argument is a terrific strawman - because of course they don't.

[a700hitter]

Stats don't purport to ... they measure results ... the physical, mental - whatever - are the stuff that goes into getting results. If measurable results aren't there - then there is a deficiency in the other stuff (physical, mental, general character, body odor, et al.).

 

Players are expert on the inputs (mostly). I am sure Koosman was more liked than Seaver - Seaver's results were better, when the games mattered a lot and when they mattered less. That is mastery of the mental, physical whatever aspects.

 

The "stats don't measure" argument is a terrific strawman - because of course they don't.

It isnt a strawman. It is just valuing players as a source over some stats that can be mangled and manipulated.

 

There are times when one athlete knows that he is mentally dominating his opponent and that the other guy has no chance. The stats say that he should have a 35% chance of getting on base according to all career stats and relevant splits. Yet, both participants know that the guy is toast. And even at the major league level, confidence and will are not equal among all players, and good and great players don't necessarily have a proportionately great confidence level. It is the reason why some players can't handle playing in big markets. It isn't because of the commute or the high rents. It is that players (even at the MLB) level react differently to stress and pressure.

[mvp 78]

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=div&date=2016-09-07

 

Sox 57% chance to win division, 34% chance to get to the WC game.

 

This is so refreshing compared to the last 2 years.

[sk7326]

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=div&date=2016-09-07

 

Sox 57% chance to win division, 34% chance to get to the WC game.

 

This is so refreshing compared to the last 2 years.

 

At times it doesn't look like they are playing well - because there hasn't been that 19 wins in 23 games sort of stretch - but they have been very steady ... this "softer" 16 game stretch ended 9-7, which is a game or two less than would have been nice, but still all in the right direction.

[mvp 78]

At times it doesn't look like they are playing well - because there hasn't been that 19 wins in 23 games sort of stretch - but they have been very steady ... this "softer" 16 game stretch ended 9-7, which is a game or two less than would have been nice, but still all in the right direction.

 

All we can do is watch the standings now. If they can go 4-2 against the Jays, they should clinch the division easily.

[Kimmi]

Stats don't purport to ... they measure results ... the physical, mental - whatever - are the stuff that goes into getting results. If measurable results aren't there - then there is a deficiency in the other stuff (physical, mental, general character, body odor, et al.).

 

Players are expert on the inputs (mostly). I am sure Koosman was more liked than Seaver - Seaver's results were better, when the games mattered a lot and when they mattered less. That is mastery of the mental, physical whatever aspects.

 

The "stats don't measure" argument is a terrific strawman - because of course they don't.

 

Thank you for your posts on the topic. Just add my name to your posts from now on, please. Except in the matter of robot umps.

[oldtimer]

Interesting article on the potential red sox playloff roster on Boston.com. The writer (I didn't see a byline) expects 11 pitchers and 14 field players. Two catchers including Leon and Vazquez. Four outfielders with Benintendi and Young listed. Papi as DH of course and 7 infielders with Pedey, Ramerez, Bogaerts, Shaw, Moncada and Hill listed. He mentioned Hernandez but not sure who the final infielder would be. Holt, but if so who plays short if Bogaerts can't go?

 

The pitchers were 4 starters and didn't include Wright at this time. In relief, there would be Kimbrel, Ross, Kelly, Uehara, Ziegler, Buchholz and Abad.

 

Don't know how in the know the writer is but some names are left off such as Wright, Tazawa and Barnes. I can see the writers point on those.

[oldtimer]

The Sox have 23 games left and all are against meaningful opponents, and yes, I count the Rays in that context, since they have been playing good ball of late. The way I look at the remaining games is that the Sox need to split or win the remaining games with each opponent.

 

Win 3 of the 6 with the Blue Jays

Win 4 of 7 with the Orioles

Win 4 of 7 with the Yankees

Win 2 of 3 with the Rays

 

That doesn't sound all that daunting a task and would give the Sox 92 wins and virtually assure them of a playoff berth and a possible Pennant.

 

The Blue Jays have a tough west coast road trip in their mix plus the Yankees, Baltimore and the Rays. Not likely to come away from that unscathed

Baltimore has to go to play the Tigers and have Arizona in addition to the in division foes

The Yankees with the most to do have the Dodgers at home in addition to division foes.

 

Clearly, if Blue Jays, Baltimore and the Yankees play evenly and we hold as postulated above, we are in. The Yankees did beat the Rays last night in a close one.

[kenmeister]

Wow, I just woke up and looked at the standings all around baseball. There's only one division race left out of the six. The Guardians have a 6 game lead over the Tigers, the Rangers 8.5 over the Astros, Nationals 8 over the Mets, Cubs 16 over the Cardinals, and Dodgers 5 over the Giants. Whereas in the AL East, 4 of the 5 teams are all within 4 games of each other. We've got all the drama. And it's all about to go down over the next 3 series. This is exciting!

[moonslav59]

BOS (10H/13A)

7 vs BAL

7 vs NYY

6 vs TOR

3 vs TBR

 

Toronot has... (13H/10A)

6 vs BOS

4 vs NYY

3 vs BAL

3 vs TBR

4 @ LAA

3 @ SEA

 

BAL (11H/12A)

7 vs BOS

4 vs TBR

3 @ TOR

3 @ NYY

3 @ DET

3 vs AZ

 

NYY (13H/11A)

7 vs TBR

7 vs BOS

4 @ TOR

3 vs BAL

3 vs LAD

 

Nobody has an easy shot.

 

Here's the standings now:

 

BOS --

TOR -1.0 (WC)

BAL -2.0 (WC)

____________

DET -1.0 from WC

HOU -2.0

NYY -2.5

KCR -4.0

SEA -5.0

[sk7326]

The bad news is the Sox aren't playing the A's and Diamondbacks anymore.

 

The good news is that the Sox are playing everybody they have to beat - it's all in front of them. As noted above, I wish we had picked off one or two more games of the last 16 ... but the 9-7 is completely okay. Rotation has been pretty good - now Farrell has to figure out the pitchers who he can trust.

[Maxbialystock]

Right now all five starters are pretty trustworthy. ERod can still have control issues, but otherwise is good. None of the five is dominant, but all do get guys out.

 

Bullpen, now with Kimbrel, Ziegler, Kelly, Uehara, Ross, and Abad, is the best it's been all year. Still not shut down, but some pretty good options.

[Kimmi]

Wow, I just woke up and looked at the standings all around baseball. There's only one division race left out of the six. The Guardians have a 6 game lead over the Tigers, the Rangers 8.5 over the Astros, Nationals 8 over the Mets, Cubs 16 over the Cardinals, and Dodgers 5 over the Giants. Whereas in the AL East, 4 of the 5 teams are all within 4 games of each other. We've got all the drama. And it's all about to go down over the next 3 series. This is exciting!

 

It's exciting, but I'd much rather have a nice 6 game lead. I'll be a nervous wreck over the next 3 weeks! LOL

[oldtimer]

It's exciting, but I'd much rather have a nice 6 game lead. I'll be a nervous wreck over the next 3 weeks! LOL

 

Well, the Sox blew out the Blue Jays and the Orioles lost so we are in a little better position. The Yankees are leading in theirs. Just up to us to continue to win series, the rest will take care of itself. By the way, Porcello is a 20 game winner. Great to see how well he is doing.

[Kimmi]

Well, the Sox blew out the Blue Jays and the Orioles lost so we are in a little better position. The Yankees are leading in theirs. Just up to us to continue to win series, the rest will take care of itself. By the way, Porcello is a 20 game winner. Great to see how well he is doing.

 

Ben and I are ecstatic with the way Porcello is pitching. It was nice to have a non nail biting win last night. The Sox control their own destiny. They need to keep taking care of business, and let the other teams dog it out for the wildcard spots.

[moonslav59]

Right now all five starters are pretty trustworthy. ERod can still have control issues, but otherwise is good. None of the five is dominant, but all do get guys out.

 

Bullpen, now with Kimbrel, Ziegler, Kelly, Uehara, Ross, and Abad, is the best it's been all year. Still not shut down, but some pretty good options.

 

Yeah, Erod has 8 BB in his last 17.1 IP, but the huge upside is that he's only allowed 5 Hits in that same time frame for an 0.750 WHIP!

 

I'll take it!

 

Let's hope this staff stays in top form from here on out. I mean look at these starter numbers! I'm not sure, if we've ever had a 4 week stretch like this:

 

5-0 1.85 Price (.504 OPS against)

5-0 2.53 Porcello (.518)

2-1 2.05 Buchholz (.669) includes some relief

0-1 2.60 Rodriguez (.367) WOW!

2-2 2.90 Pomeranz (.682)

 

All 5 starters below 2.90! ALL FIVE HAVE BEEN DOMINANT!!!

 

The longer sanple size (2nd half) keeps improving:

 

9-1 2.57 Porcello (.540)

6-2 3.07 Price (.688)

1-3 2.73 ERod (.582)

3-1 2.95 Buch (.616) includes some relief

2-4 3.97 Pom (.762)

 

Simply amazing!

Edited September 10, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Some more amazing 2nd half numbers:

 

OPS against from our pen:

 

.143 Uehara (14 PAs)

.486 Kimbrel (49)

.500 Scott (4)

.513 Ross (85)

.654 Ziegler (86)

.656 Kelly (27)

.666 Abad (53)

 

(.616 Buch in relief and as a starter)

[Slasher9]

UPDATE:

20 GAMES TO GO

10 Road / 10 Home

 

the next 7 are at home. 5-2 would put us in GREAT shape to win the division. have a chance to put a nail in both Baltimore & MFY coffins the next week of games.

 

 

DIVISION:

1st in Division (2 GA of Tor/Bal)

 

WC

4 GA of being "out of the playoffs"

 

ESPN has Red Sox at 93.4% chance of making the playoffs...

[greenwell]

UPDATE:

20 GAMES TO GO

10 Road / 10 Home

 

the next 7 are at home. 5-2 would put us in GREAT shape to win the division. have a chance to put a nail in both Baltimore & MFY coffins the next week of games.

 

 

DIVISION:

1st in Division (2 GA of Tor/Bal)

 

WC

4 GA of being "out of the playoffs"

 

ESPN has Red Sox at 93.4% chance of making the playoffs...

 

Those last 2 road trips were huge. A lot of people looked at that stretch before the season even started as being key. The sox went 13-7 combined.

[oldtimer]

With a win against the Orioles and what looks like a Yankee loss and a Blue Jay win we move a little closer to the playoffs. One game at a time of course.

 

Boston

Blue Jays -2

Orioles -3

Yankees -?

 

Go Sox

[Maxbialystock]

The Jays have good hitting and good pitching, so I think the Sox and Jays are a good bet for the playoffs. Then it looks like a dogfight among the Orioles, Tigers, and maybe the Yankees.

 

Right now the Sox pitching looks pretty good. Buchholz flubbed his last start Sunday in Toronto, but has been good, and the other four--especially Price and Porcello--have been consistent over the last month or so. The bullpen was very good on the 9 game road trip, but never more so that giving up 2 runs in 6 innings to save that rubber game win at Toronto. I would not say we have shut down bullpen, but right now Farrell has some pretty good options in Kinbrel, Ziegler, Uehara, Kelly, Ross, Abad, et al. He used 8 relievers Sunday in Toronto. Team ERA right now is 4.08, 5th best in the AL. 3d best is Houston at 4.03.

 

Hitting is excellent overall even though sometimes they can be beat. Thus the three losses on the road trip were 3-2, 2-1, and 1-0.

 

All of the above sounds good, but it's also true that any team can get hot.

[cp176]

What i do know is that last year's September sucked. No meaning baseball that I really cared much about (I know - bad fan), The Giants ( apologies to New England) were awful, and my golf game was terrible. From last to first with meaningful baseball once again being played at an absolutely beautiful time of year. I'm not sure that anything in sports can rival a real pennant race in September. I get the excitement and love of all sports New England but Boston and Baseball has been, is , and always will be something very special.

[greenwell]

What i do know is that last year's September sucked. No meaning baseball that I really cared much about (I know - bad fan), The Giants ( apologies to New England) were awful, and my golf game was terrible. From last to first with meaningful baseball once again being played at an absolutely beautiful time of year. I'm not sure that anything in sports can rival a real pennant race in September. I get the excitement and love of all sports New England but Boston and Baseball has been, is , and always will be something very special.

 

More importantly, how's your golf game this September?

[Thunder]

What i do know is that last year's September sucked. No meaning baseball that I really cared much about (I know - bad fan), The Giants ( apologies to New England) were awful, and my golf game was terrible. From last to first with meaningful baseball once again being played at an absolutely beautiful time of year. I'm not sure that anything in sports can rival a real pennant race in September. I get the excitement and love of all sports New England but Boston and Baseball has been, is , and always will be something very special.

 

Agreed. Last night, for the first time in a long time, I watched the Sox instead of Monday Night Football. What a great decision that turned out to be. September baseball with a first place team feels so amazing. I wake up each day so excited for that evening's game, and tonight I get to watch the whole thing, instead of having to go to bed early to wake up for school.

[mvp 78]

Agreed. Last night, for the first time in a long time, I watched the Sox instead of Monday Night Football. What a great decision that turned out to be. September baseball with a first place team feels so amazing. I wake up each day so excited for that evening's game, and tonight I get to watch the whole thing, instead of having to go to bed early to wake up for school.

 

MNF matchups have been dog s*** since they put the playoff teams on Sunday night. Monday and Thursday night games are usually terrible.