Lineup Discussions

[moonslav59]

And you are totally ignoring the new Kid?

 

Yes.

 

I specifically said this was based on just "the numbers" with a min PA threshold.

 

Of course Beni would and should fit into any future line-up projection.

 

This was meant more as a guideline based on data, but I would not choose any of these line-ups as my own. The data would influence my choices, and I'm more likely than many to juggle players around based on splits, so use as you wish.

[greenwell]

Based on just the numbers (below) alone, I see a few things vs RHPs:

1) Papi is a god and must bat 3 or 4.

2) Pedey's OBP is so much better than anyone else's that he must bat 1-2. (based on his running skills, I'd say 2nd.)

*** To me, 1 and 2 are not really even debatable depending on Beni and Moncada's readiness and ML-shown performance skills

3) With Betts, Bogey and JBJ almost all with identical OBPs, speed and SLG should determine their slots. Since JBJ is better, he goes 3 or 4. Since Betts is fastest but also 3rd best slugging, and Bogey has low SLG, I'd go Bogey 1st/Betts 5th. I'd be okay with Betts 3rd and JBJ 5th.

4) Shaw is way better than HanRam vs RHPs, so he goes 6th and HanRam, if not platooned (yes, he's that bad) is slotted lower.

5) Since Beni and Moncada are largely unknowns, I left them out for now.

 

I'm not saying this is what I suggest- only what I FEEL the numbers show:

vs RHPs

1) Bogey

2) Pedey

3) JBJ or Betts

4) Ortiz

5) Betts or JBJ

6) Shaw

7) Holt (Beni)

8) HanRam (Pablo, if healthy)

9) Swihart/Leon

 

OBP vs RHPs (379 players with 200+ PAs vs RHPs)

7 Ortiz .409

44 Pedey .363

82 JBJ .349

85 Betts .348

90 Bogey .347 (top 25%)

119 Shaw .337

132 Holt .335

164 Hill .325 (both teams)

174 Swihart .323

211 Sandy .314

226 Ramirez .310

323 Hanigan .285

362 Young .264 (Should never start vs a RHP)

367 Castillo .259

(Non-qualifiers: Leon .313 and Vazquez .255)

 

SLG vs RHP

1 Ortiz .641

23 JBJ .534 (huge split difference)

39 Betts .509 (almost equal to LHPs)

101 Shaw .457

107 Pedey .456 (reverse split here)

139 Bogey .432 (not a 3 hitter SLG% here)

169 Sandy .419 (if he makes it on the 25, he might platoon at best)

212 Ramirez .405 (Please move down vs RHP already!)

215 Swihart .404

246 Holt .387

251 Hill .384

353 Castillo .313

373 Hanigan .281

(Non-qualifier: Leon .370 and Vazquez .284)

 

Where are these numbers from? According to ESPN stats, none of them are correct.

[moonslav59]

Where are these numbers from? According to ESPN stats, none of them are correct.

 

I try not to use. small sample sizes, though even some of these are pretty small, so I used 2015-2016 combined stats from fangraphs rather than just this

partial season.

 

 

Here's the link to vs RHPs:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=200&type=1&season=2016&month=14&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d

 

[devildavid]

Micro sample size results: After a day off, Betts hits 3rd and has an o-fer. But Hanley goes off and team scores 9. Be interesting to see if Betts remains in this slot or was this a short term shake up the offense move. Stay tuned.

[moonslav59]

Micro sample size results: After a day off, Betts hits 3rd and has an o-fer. But Hanley goes off and team scores 9. Be interesting to see if Betts remains in this slot or was this a short term shake up the offense move. Stay tuned.

 

I think the biggest worry about putting Betts 3rd was how Pedey would do batting first. The micro sample size there has been encouraging.

 

I think it stays as is.

 

Since Pedey and Bogey both have similar OBPs, and Bogey is a much better base runner than Pedey, I might have tried Bogey first, Pedey 2nd and Betts 3rd.

[User Name]

So when does Leon start cooling off?

[Bellhorn04]

So when does Leon start cooling off?

 

Well, strictly for funsies...

 

Through 132 PA's Leon is 383/423/617

 

In 2013, in his first 159 PA's Jose Iglesias was 410/459/528. After that was when Iggy started his regression.

[User Name]

Iglesias hit .300/.347/.370 last years. Iglesias' problem seems to be more about his failing health than his ability to consistently square up balls.

[mvp 78]

So when does Leon start cooling off?

 

Never

[a700hitter]

Iglesias hit .300/.347/.370 last years. Iglesias' problem seems to be more about his failing health than his ability to consistently square up balls.

Exacttly. Iglesias is an example of a guy who found something in his offensive game. He didn't find Ted Williams to hit .400, but he figured out how to produce enough to be an every day SS in the bigs. He hurt us badly in our last series against the Tigers.

[Wade Boggs]

I think the biggest worry about putting Betts 3rd was how Pedey would do batting first. The micro sample size there has been encouraging.

 

I think it stays as is.

 

Since Pedey and Bogey both have similar OBPs, and Bogey is a much better base runner than Pedey, I might have tried Bogey first, Pedey 2nd and Betts 3rd.

 

This year that may work. If it was me ... I always like speed on top. I would IMO like to put pressure on the opposing pitcher to keep throwing over to first, put pressure on the infielders to hurry up throws ,and have my #2 hitter get fastballs to hit. I want to go to first to third on a close single , or first to home on a gap double.

 

Pitching slumps.

Hitting slumps.

 

Speed doesn't.

[Station 13]

Iglesias is good at making contact and that is pretty much it for his offensive games. He has some speed, which enables him to make more use of contact.

[Station 13]

Micro sample size results: After a day off, Betts hits 3rd and has an o-fer. But Hanley goes off and team scores 9. Be interesting to see if Betts remains in this slot or was this a short term shake up the offense move. Stay tuned.

 

This is a long term plan no doubt to hit Betts 3rd. Who hits in the other spot remains to be seen.

[a700hitter]

Iglesias is good at making contact and that is pretty much it for his offensive games. He has some speed, which enables him to make more use of contact.

He hits enough to play SS everyday in the majors. His value is his glove. The question about him was where he could hit enough to stick.

[oldtimer]

Tonight's lineup featured Pedey leading off with Bogaerts and Betts following. As good as they are, it was the bottom of the lineup that did the most damage with Leon, Holt in LF and Benintendi giving Bradley a rest in CF. The more Leon plays the more confident I am that we are not seeing a flash in the pan, but instead a solid offensive force. Good news that Holt contributed and Benintendi also hit well.Having Benintendi does give us three interchangeable outfielders and any of them can play all three positions. Good insurance going forward.

[moonslav59]

We seem to have one big hitter out each game. Tonight, it was JBJ.

 

I hope these days off will pay dividends later on.

[Kimmi]

We seem to have one big hitter out each game. Tonight, it was JBJ.

 

I hope these days off will pay dividends later on.

 

We are playing 43 games in 44 days, many of which are road games, at a time when the players are already beat up and worn down from the grueling season. They need some days off. Again, we are not quite at the "sprint" stage of the season. Farrell still needs to manage for now and later on.

[Nick]

I propose 5 day furloughs for players to get over mental fatigue.......I think Xander needs it......maybe he can fly to fantasy island. Mr. Roarke can help him out of his funk.

[a700hitter]

I propose 5 day furloughs for players to get over mental fatigue.......I think Xander needs it......maybe he can fly to fantasy island. Mr. Roarke can help him out of his funk.

Yes, put it in the Collectively Bargained Union Agreement so that everyone will take sabbaticals regardless of whether they are hot or not or whether or not their team needs them.

[Nick]

Yes, put it in the Collectively Bargained Union Agreement so that everyone will take sabbaticals regardless of whether they are hot or not or whether or not their team needs them.

 

Okay, I was just kidding, thus the Fantasy Island comment, BUT now that you went serious on me......

 

What if it was 3 game mandatory for every position player in the league? At some point in the season, they miss 3 straight games. I do think they could use some time off.

[a700hitter]

Okay, I was just kidding, thus the Fantasy Island comment, BUT now that you went serious on me......

 

What if it was 3 game mandatory for every position player in the league? At some point in the season, they miss 3 straight games. I do think they could use some time off.

I wasn't being serious. I was being sarcastic. I think that is part of the skill of managing -- knowing when your guys need a mental or physical break. Mandating breaks isn't the answer. I think this is one of those off the field issues where a manager can make a positive contribution to his team.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm divided on the rest days notion. Yes, they have now become normal because managers recognize their value.

 

But I also believe that what makes MLB unique is that 162 game schedule that drives right thru the dog days of July and August. That brings out the toughness in players, the ability to stay focused and to keep playing with great skill at bat and in the field.

 

Can you imagine playing, as Kimmi points out, 43 games in 44 days with all that heat and the idea of having to stay focused while that damn pitcher is strolling around the mound trying to decide whether to throw his next pitch? Games average over 3 hours and half of that is spent in the field and being up for every single one of, I'm guessing, 100 to 150 pitches. Remember the scandal of PED's? I'm guessing the first was amphetamines, which I would argue were needed when pitchers like Buchholz would be on the mound with his thumb mostly up his ass. Or the pitchers who lose their control and start walking guys while the fielders have to remain alert on every pitch in case, heaven forbid, the batter swings and hits it.

 

While I appreciate the days off and agree to their value, I also appreciate the tough guys who somehow stay focused and productive in July and August. TS Eliot wrote that April is the cruelest month, which explains why he moved to England and became a citizen. Unlike Bo, TS did not know baseball.

[a700hitter]

The scheduling is ridiculous. In an effort to maximize revenue, the MLB schedule is just ridiculous. There used to be more scheduled doubleheaders -- I think about 5. That added 5 off days into the schedule. It made a huge difference. Teams almost always had an off-day on Monday or Thursday.

[Nick]

The scheduling is ridiculous. In an effort to maximize revenue, the MLB schedule is just ridiculous. There used to be more scheduled doubleheaders -- I think about 5. That added 5 off days into the schedule. It made a huge difference. Teams almost always had an off-day on Monday or Thursday.

 

If the fans are forced to pay twice for the double header, won't the gate revenue remain neutral? I don't see any reason to have 4 game series over 4 days.

 

One of my best memories was driving to Chicago and watching Sox play the wrong colored Sox 4 times over the weekend.

[Behindenemylines]

I propose 5 day furloughs for players to get over mental fatigue.......I think Xander needs it......maybe he can fly to fantasy island. Mr. Roarke can help him out of his funk.

 

Both X and JBJ have looked fatigue at the plate. That is where having Holt as a super sub will come in handy. That is why they call them the "Dog days of summer".

[a700hitter]

If the fans are forced to pay twice for the double header, won't the gate revenue remain neutral? I don't see any reason to have 4 game series over 4 days.

 

One of my best memories was driving to Chicago and watching Sox play the wrong colored Sox 4 times over the weekend.

The only way that doubleheaders alleviate the scheduling is to have single admission doubleheaders. The day/night double admission doubleheaders doesn't work. Those are very tough on the players. I think the teams should have single admission double headers, but charge a premium for those games -- maybe a 50% premium.

[moonslav59]

I'm not trying to defend the MLB schedule, but Monday was supposed to be a day off. The result of having a make-up game at CLE tomorrow results in a freaky 5 day schedule for the Sox:

 

SUN vs AZ in BOS

MON @ CLE

TUE @ BAL

WED @ BAL

THU @ DET

 

That's 4 cities in 5 days!

 

3 flights in 4 days!

 

I think giving all our FT'ers a day off was the right call. Bogey needed more, so I'm okay with that as well.

 

[oldtimer]

I'm divided on the rest days notion. Yes, they have now become normal because managers recognize their value.

 

But I also believe that what makes MLB unique is that 162 game schedule that drives right thru the dog days of July and August. That brings out the toughness in players, the ability to stay focused and to keep playing with great skill at bat and in the field.

 

Can you imagine playing, as Kimmi points out, 43 games in 44 days with all that heat and the idea of having to stay focused while that damn pitcher is strolling around the mound trying to decide whether to throw his next pitch? Games average over 3 hours and half of that is spent in the field and being up for every single one of, I'm guessing, 100 to 150 pitches. Remember the scandal of PED's? I'm guessing the first was amphetamines, which I would argue were needed when pitchers like Buchholz would be on the mound with his thumb mostly up his ass. Or the pitchers who lose their control and start walking guys while the fielders have to remain alert on every pitch in case, heaven forbid, the batter swings and hits it.

 

While I appreciate the days off and agree to their value, I also appreciate the tough guys who somehow stay focused and productive in July and August. TS Eliot wrote that April is the cruelest month, which explains why he moved to England and became a citizen. Unlike Bo, TS did not know baseball.

 

I play senior softball being over 75 years old. We played a 3 game tournament the other day in the heat and I can tell you it drains you. I know the younger guys recover faster and are in better shape, but for those of us hackers still out there trying, we can appreciate how difficult playing every day can be let alone the travel involved. Those fond of dissipation (Billy Martin, Mickey Mantle types) also have that to overcome. The players aren't going to say they are too tired to play on a given day, it's up to the manager to recognize when the situation arises and to try to substitute to optimize team performance.

[a700hitter]

I play senior softball being over 75 years old. We played a 3 game tournament the other day in the heat and I can tell you it drains you. I know the younger guys recover faster and are in better shape, but for those of us hackers still out there trying, we can appreciate how difficult playing every day can be let alone the travel involved. Those fond of dissipation (Billy Martin, Mickey Mantle types) also have that to overcome. The players aren't going to say they are too tired to play on a given day, it's up to the manager to recognize when the situation arises and to try to substitute to optimize team performance.

Ah, softball and beer. The good old days. I miss those days -- 7 years since I hung them up.

[devildavid]

Just think what would happen if Pedroia liked hitting leadoff. Mookie batting 3rd knocks in 8. Mere coincidence? Hmmm!

 

Yes, still a micro-sample size and and an outlier of a game, but it did demonstrate the general principle quite nicely. Is everyone ok with Mookie batting 3rd now?