Lineup Discussions

[User Name]

Lineup positions do not operate in a vacuum. It's harder to walk when you're a leadoff hitter because guys will go right at you to keep you off the bases at least once per game, and in those instances, you have to swing and the BABIP Gods have you at their mercy.

[sk7326]

Mookie's OBP shows that he makes more outs than other top hitters on the team. Why give more chances to hitters who make more outs?

 

The problem (if there is one) is not that he makes outs ... his OBP is plenty good - Betts is a legitimate MVP candidate ... but that batting him first reduces his RBI opportunities. Now all of these margins are small - essentially zero on a game to game basis.

[sk7326]

We are at a point in this long season, where stats begin to mean something. For, that is, regulars. So,

 

Betts has an OBP of .342 and an SLG of .527

 

Pedroia has an OBP of .372 and an SLG of .449

 

Why isn't Pedroia leading off, with Betts second? Or don't past performances mean anything? Just habit?

 

It is a fair question - but the results would not be much different. It could get Betts a few more RBI chances, which is a good thing to do for a guy on track to hit near 30 HRs.

[illinoisredsox]

We are at a point in this long season, where stats begin to mean something. For, that is, regulars. So,

 

Betts has an OBP of .342 and an SLG of .527

 

Pedroia has an OBP of .372 and an SLG of .449

 

Why isn't Pedroia leading off, with Betts second? Or don't past performances mean anything? Just habit?

 

If you are going to bring past performance in ... Pedroia has spent virtually his entire career in the top 3 spots in the line-up. His weakest spot has been leadoff, his best spot has been 2nd.

 

Leadoff - 645 PAs, .279 BA, >341 OBP, .412 SLG, .753 OPS

2nd - 3822 PAs, .300/.367/.448/.815

3rd - 1226 PAs, .300/.368/.435/.802

 

Pedroia has said he doesn't like leading off and his career stats show it's his worst spot (unless you want to drop him way down in the line-up where he hasn't been since he probably was a rookie).

 

Again, for the most part this year, offense has not been the problem.

Edited August 2, 2016 by illinoisredsox

[devildavid]

Lineup positions do not operate in a vacuum. It's harder to walk when you're a leadoff hitter because guys will go right at you to keep you off the bases at least once per game, and in those instances, you have to swing and the BABIP Gods have you at their mercy.

 

Players who are good at getting on base are good at getting on base. Selective hitters are selective hitters. Pitchers don't go at the leadoff hitter any harder than any other batter.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats Pedroia ranks 180th out of 250 players in RBI percentage over the last 3 seasons. Ortiz ranks 4th, Betts ranks 8th.

[User Name]

Players who are good at getting on base are good at getting on base. Selective hitters are selective hitters. Pitchers don't go at the leadoff hitter any harder than any other batter.

 

Can you prove this conclusively?

[sk7326]

@redsoxstats Pedroia ranks 180th out of 250 players in RBI percentage over the last 3 seasons. Ortiz ranks 4th, Betts ranks 8th.

 

Pedey needs to contact whomever is in charge of "hulking up"

[devildavid]

It's the whole package - OBP, speed and OPS. The team thinks Mookie is our best combo of these ingredients, and I agree.

 

OPS is a very flawed stat. You are adding two percentages derived in completely different ways.

 

Mookie's combination of ingredients does not suggest a leadoff hitter. He fits better in the 3 slot, where his HR power provides more opportunity to drive in more runs. Only 8 of Mookie's 23 HRs have come with men on base. Compare this to Papi who has had 13 of 25 HRs with men on base. Bosoxmal has a very valid point and he was on this from the start of the season. A very astute take on maximizing scoring potential of the batting order.

[devildavid]

Can you prove this conclusively?

 

Just as conclusively as your assertion.

[Bellhorn04]

OPS is a very flawed stat. You are adding two percentages derived in completely different ways.

 

Mookie's combination of ingredients does not suggest a leadoff hitter. He fits better in the 3 slot, where his HR power provides more opportunity to drive in more runs. Only 8 of Mookie's 23 HRs have come with men on base. Compare this to Papi who has had 13 of 25 HRs with men on base. Bosoxmal has a very valid point and he was on this from the start of the season. A very astute take on maximizing scoring potential of the batting order.

 

The bottom line is, Red Sox management knows all these numbers every bit as well as we do, and they know other stuff we don't know, and they prefer Mookie in the leadoff spot. He certainly seems to be thriving there.

[mvp 78]

The bottom line is, Red Sox management knows all these numbers every bit as well as we do, and they know other stuff we don't know, and they prefer Mookie in the leadoff spot. He certainly seems to be thriving there.

 

I agree. Don't understand the need to move Mookie out of that spot. He'll get more AB's than anyone else. I'm fine with him there rather than a struggling Xander.

[devildavid]

The bottom line is, Red Sox management knows all these numbers every bit as well as we do, and they know other stuff we don't know, and they prefer Mookie in the leadoff spot. He certainly seems to be thriving there.

 

How does anyone know that he wouldn't thrive in the 3 spot without trying it? He may be thriving due to his talent, not where he bats. Management manages a team, as well as individual players. What is best for the success of the team may still be best for Mookie.

[oldtimer]

OPS is a very flawed stat. You are adding two percentages derived in completely different ways.

 

Mookie's combination of ingredients does not suggest a leadoff hitter. He fits better in the 3 slot, where his HR power provides more opportunity to drive in more runs. Only 8 of Mookie's 23 HRs have come with men on base. Compare this to Papi who has had 13 of 25 HRs with men on base. Bosoxmal has a very valid point and he was on this from the start of the season. A very astute take on maximizing scoring potential of the batting order.

 

I agree with your thinking but would make no change this season. Perhaps next year we will have a prospect for lead off with speed and and good OB percentage. Benintendi is a possible candidate and as we currently feature 3 right hand hitters in our order, it might be good to modify that next year. Benintendi is a long shot as management would have to see some proof of his abilities but something to think about. I don't see Pedey in the leadoff role and Bogaerts has some possibility but hard to move a guy doing so well where he is. Another tough decision next year for management.

[sk7326]

OPS is a very flawed stat. You are adding two percentages derived in completely different ways.

 

Mookie's combination of ingredients does not suggest a leadoff hitter. He fits better in the 3 slot, where his HR power provides more opportunity to drive in more runs. Only 8 of Mookie's 23 HRs have come with men on base. Compare this to Papi who has had 13 of 25 HRs with men on base. Bosoxmal has a very valid point and he was on this from the start of the season. A very astute take on maximizing scoring potential of the batting order.

 

it is a bit of an overheated take. Sox are scoring at the rate last year's Jays did. Could the lineup switch score more? Maybe - but it'd be small.

[devildavid]

it is a bit of an overheated take. Sox are scoring at the rate last year's Jays did. Could the lineup switch score more? Maybe - but it'd be small.

 

Sox have had a losing record in one run games this season. Even if a small percentage of those were turned into wins it could have a big impact on the final results in a close race.

[Bellhorn04]

Since July 1 Mookie is hitting 373/411/678.

 

The premise of wanting to move him was largely based on his low OBP. Why would you want to move him when he has been red hot in every phase of offense including OBP?

[User Name]

Just as conclusively as your assertion.

 

But I can gather some data behind my assertion and come to an educated conclusion. Can you?

[moonslav59]

Since July 1 Mookie is hitting 373/411/678.

 

The premise of wanting to move him was largely based on his low OBP. Why would you want to move him when he has been red hot in every phase of offense including OBP?

 

Exactly. There's a point to be made about maybe not leading Betts off in the early season. He's struggled a little on OBP the last two years in April/May, but the kid has our best OBP in the last 28 days:

.380 Betts

.372 Pedey

.341 JBJ

.333 Beni

.328 Leon & Holt

.310 Bogey

 

OBP in July (60+ PAs)

.415 Betts

.382 HanRam

.381 Pedey

.375 Leon

.359 Bogey

.356 Holt

.350 JBJ

 

Betts career by month:

 

APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

......................................405

................................358

................349.343

......,.323

.305

 

 

 

[devildavid]

But I can gather some data behind my assertion and come to an educated conclusion. Can you?

 

Yes.

[devildavid]

Exactly. There's a point to be made about maybe not leading Betts off in the early season. He's struggled a little on OBP the last two years in April/May, but the kid has our best OBP in the last 28 days:

.380 Betts

.372 Pedey

.341 JBJ

.333 Beni

.328 Leon & Holt

.310 Bogey

 

OBP in July (60+ PAs)

.415 Betts

.382 HanRam

.381 Pedey

.375 Leon

.359 Bogey

.356 Holt

.350 JBJ

 

Betts career by month:

 

APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

......................................405

................................358

................349.343

......,.323

.305

 

 

 

 

The point is the type of hitter Betts really is. He is hitting like a slugger, not a leadoff hitter. Slot him where his bat will have maximum impact on run production.

[moonslav59]

I'm not necessarily against putting Betts up 3rd, but the point about moving him down because his OBP is an issue right now is just not logical.

 

Also, It's not a bad thing having a lead-off hitter with some power. It enables the team to score more easily when the bottom of the order gets on base. With a team that is as balanced as we are, that happens more often than usual. The number 1 hitter also gets 25-40 more PAs than the 3 or 4 slot hitter over the course of a season.

[Dojji]

The point is the type of hitter Betts really is. He is hitting like a slugger, not a leadoff hitter. Slot him where his bat will have maximum impact on run production.

 

That actually happens to be the leadoff position, where a highly efficient hitter gets the most PA's.

 

We have other good cleanup hitters, especially Big Papi. Not every power hitter needs to be 3-4-5

[devildavid]

That actually happens to be the leadoff position, where a highly efficient hitter gets the most PA's.

 

We have other good cleanup hitters, especially Big Papi. Not every power hitter needs to be 3-4-5

 

Who are the other good cleanup hitters? The leadoff spot is less likely to have as many opportunites with runners on base. It leads off every game and is preceded by the lower spots in the order after that. Hence Mookie's 15 solo HRs out of his total of his total of 23, which is second only to Ortiz. Mookie is statistically our second best candidate for cleanup hitter.

[devildavid]

I'm not necessarily against putting Betts up 3rd, but the point about moving him down because his OBP is an issue right now is just not logical.

 

Also, It's not a bad thing having a lead-off hitter with some power. It enables the team to score more easily when the bottom of the order gets on base. With a team that is as balanced as we are, that happens more often than usual. The number 1 hitter also gets 25-40 more PAs than the 3 or 4 slot hitter over the course of a season.

 

Mookie for the season has still not taken advantage of the extra PAs as evidenced by his full season OBP of .349. He still leads the team in making outs.

[moonslav59]

Mookie for the season has still not taken advantage of the extra PAs as evidenced by his full season OBP of .349. He still leads the team in making outs.

 

I beg to differ: with almost every PA his OBP rises.

 

OBP

4/15 .271

4/30 .298

5/15 .306

5/31 .325

6/15 .339

6/30 .331

7/15 .342

7/31 .347

(He's at .350 now)

 

Again, I'm not against moving Betts to the 3 slot. I'm just not going to use his "low" OBP as a reason to do so.

Edited August 6, 2016 by moonslav59

[devildavid]

I beg to differ: with almost every PA his OBP rises.

 

OBP

4/15 .271

4/30 .298

5/15 .306

5/31 .325

6/15 .339

6/30 .331

7/15 .342

7/31 .347

(He's at .350 now)

 

Again, I'm not against moving Betts to the 3 slot. I'm just not going to use his "low" OBP as a reason to do so.

 

Still lower than other top hitters on the team.

[moonslav59]

Since Pedey and Bogey have about a .020 edge on Betts right now, they'd get on base maybe 10 more times each over Betts, if the OBP's stayed constant over 500+ PAs, but with just maybe 15 more PAs than Betts, that only amounts to maybe 1 more combined than they get now by moving up a slot.

 

It's not about Mookie's low OBP. Batting him 3rd should be about his SLG%. That's all I'm saying.

 

Maybe next year, we may see this eventually:

 

1) Beni or Moncada

2) Bogey

3) Betts

4)Bradley

5) Pedey

6) HanRam

7) Shaw/ Swihart/Young

8) Moncada or Beni/Young

9) Leon/Swihart/Vazquez

 

[User Name]

Yes.

 

I'm waiting.

[User Name]

Farrell just said the Sox are considering moving Mookie up to 3rd with Pedey leading off, and XB to 2nd. Why fix what ain't broke?