Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[greenwell]

ERod is still a little up and down, but he's looking to have kmore ups recently. I like him as our number 3 in the playoffs, but I have no issue with Pom.

 

I like him and think he has a good future, but he does have trouble late in games. He was looking like toast by the 6th yesterday.

[moonslav59]

I like him and think he has a good future, but he does have trouble late in games. He was looking like toast by the 6th yesterday.

 

We'll have Buch to come in by the 5th or 6th inning.

[FredLynn]

I like him and think he has a good future, but he does have trouble late in games. He was looking like toast by the 6th yesterday.

 

Its no coincidence that both he and Pomeranz are essentially two pitch pitchers and both are not as successful pitchers with a larger arsenal, in general. I think that ERod should focus on developing a third reliable pitch this winter if he is going to maximize his value to the team in the upcoming years.

[User Name]

Its no coincidence that both he and Pomeranz are essentially two pitch pitchers and both are not as successful pitchers with a larger arsenal, in general. I think that ERod should focus on developing a third reliable pitch this winter if he is going to maximize his value to the team in the upcoming years.

 

Except that Pomeranz is a four-pitch guy (Fastball, changeup, cutter, curve). His cutter percent dropped significantly since he came over to the Sox, as he can't seem to throw it consistently for strikes anymore. The innings jump has caught up to him.

[Slasher9]

hopefully the relievers are coaching up Pom Pom on the ins and outs of bullpen life in Boston.

Porc

Price

Buch

Erod

will be our playoff rotation.

[sk7326]

Its no coincidence that both he and Pomeranz are essentially two pitch pitchers and both are not as successful pitchers with a larger arsenal, in general. I think that ERod should focus on developing a third reliable pitch this winter if he is going to maximize his value to the team in the upcoming years.

 

Good fastball, terrific change ... so at least he can work both sides of the plate. Patience with him will be rewarded - sort of already is.

[Hugh2]

Well I just read an article by McAdam that says the Sox are pissed and very disappointed that MLB did not do more than the suspension. McAdam suggested that Pads pay the remainder of Poms 2016 deal or forfeit draft pick to the Sox.

 

It makes sense. You can't just rescind the deal, there isn't anything horribly wrong with him as if he needs TJ and is useless for the rest of his contract. It's just as hard to try and negotiate another player, how do you do that? I think the best, most logical solution is to give the Sox a draft.

 

Perhaps I'm being a homer to suggest the Sox get something in return, but at the very least I think it's fair that they LOSE a draft pick. Perhaps the Sox don't get it but they should lose theirs.

 

But the suspension is equivalent to ZERO penalty at all. This is a team not in contention, and it's after the trade deadline and he will still get to deal during the winter meetings. In the end all this is, is a small fine because he will lose a months pay.

[mvp 78]

The only penalty is that teams won't want to trade with the Padres until they get a new GM. Meh.

[sk7326]

It makes sense. You can't just rescind the deal, there isn't anything horribly wrong with him as if he needs TJ and is useless for the rest of his contract. It's just as hard to try and negotiate another player, how do you do that? I think the best, most logical solution is to give the Sox a draft.

 

Perhaps I'm being a homer to suggest the Sox get something in return, but at the very least I think it's fair that they LOSE a draft pick. Perhaps the Sox don't get it but they should lose theirs.

 

But the suspension is equivalent to ZERO penalty at all. This is a team not in contention, and it's after the trade deadline and he will still get to deal during the winter meetings. In the end all this is, is a small fine because he will lose a months pay.

 

A month's pay is a lot of money.

 

That said, at some point the Padres will offer the best deal for a team and then things will be fine. There might be some additional hoops to jump through (stuff the commish's office is called in for) to make sure things are kosher.

 

A team won't willingly close off a potential market for players and whatever over something like this ...

[S5Dewey]

A month's pay is a lot of money.

 

That said, at some point the Padres will offer the best deal for a team and then things will be fine. There might be some additional hoops to jump through (stuff the commish's office is called in for) to make sure things are kosher.

 

A team won't willingly close off a potential market for players and whatever over something like this ...

 

So true. When a team will talk about PED abuse being a bane of MLB and in the next breath sign a known PED abuser to a big $$ contract it lets you know that owners will talk out of both sides of their mouth, depending on which side benefits them the most.

[sk7326]

So true. When a team will talk about PED abuse being a bane of MLB and in the next breath sign a known PED abuser to a big $$ contract it lets you know that owners will talk out of both sides of their mouth, depending on which side benefits them the most.

 

What is most likely to happen is that the Padres might - MIGHT - in the short run face more or a "other team-favorable" trading environment.

[S5Dewey]

What is most likely to happen is that the Padres might - MIGHT - in the short run face more or a "other team-favorable" trading environment.

 

I'm more cynical than you are. IMO other owners will hold their nose(s), make any trade that they think will benefit them the most, and hope for the best. I have ZERO faith in the principles of most owners.

[FredLynn]

Except that Pomeranz is a four-pitch guy (Fastball, changeup, cutter, curve). His cutter percent dropped significantly since he came over to the Sox, as he can't seem to throw it consistently for strikes anymore. The innings jump has caught up to him.

 

From Fangraphs:

 

Percentage of fastballs thrown: 52% (all of his fastballs-38.1% four seam, less than 10% two seam and cut fastballs)

Percentage knucklecurve: 39.3%

Percentage of changeups: less than 10% (8.8%)

 

Not to discount the number of innings he has thrown this year, but essentially he throws fastballs and curves. He has no change and no slider to speak of that he can reliably throw. The addition of a reliable third pitch is essential to his future success IMHO. When the hitter knows its either a fastball or a curve, he is going to be right half the time. Even the addition of a splitter would help. Thats his assignment this offseason. Same with Rodriguez. Adding a third pitch would make both of them more effective if they can command it. For now, I think he is spent. I do not see a place for him on the immediate postseason roster.

[Hugh2]

A month's pay is a lot of money.

 

That said, at some point the Padres will offer the best deal for a team and then things will be fine. There might be some additional hoops to jump through (stuff the commish's office is called in for) to make sure things are kosher.

 

A team won't willingly close off a potential market for players and whatever over something like this ...

 

I get all that, but that's all it is. They mine as well just fine him, yet I still think it's a light punishment.

[Hugh2]

My biggest concern for Pomeranz when we traded Espinoza for him was I thought there was a significantly good chance he would break down towards the end of the year. If this is the case, we are right back to where we were looking for a middle guy. Still, if Pomeranz can build on his innings this year and be the guy he was in the first half going forward it's not a horrible trade.

 

Luckily, Buchholz and Erod have stepped it up lately. Pomeranz has been really good out of the pen in the past, perhaps he can be a weapon there in the playoffs. On the other hand, it would seem risky to throw him in that role without any recent experience right when every inning matters.

[User Name]

From Fangraphs:

 

Percentage of fastballs thrown: 52% (all of his fastballs-38.1% four seam, less than 10% two seam and cut fastballs)

Percentage knucklecurve: 39.3%

Percentage of changeups: less than 10% (8.8%)

 

Not to discount the number of innings he has thrown this year, but essentially he throws fastballs and curves. He has no change and no slider to speak of that he can reliably throw. The addition of a reliable third pitch is essential to his future success IMHO. When the hitter knows its either a fastball or a curve, he is going to be right half the time. Even the addition of a splitter would help. Thats his assignment this offseason. Same with Rodriguez. Adding a third pitch would make both of them more effective if they can command it. For now, I think he is spent. I do not see a place for him on the immediate postseason roster.

 

His cut fastball/change percent has trended downward since he came to the sox, and the percentages themselves are still not far off what a typical four-pitch mix represents. His real problem is not repertoire. Dude is tired and has trouble throwing strikes. Look it up on google, Farrell said it himself.

[Dojji]

My biggest concern for Pomeranz when we traded Espinoza for him was I thought there was a significantly good chance he would break down towards the end of the year. If this is the case, we are right back to where we were looking for a middle guy. Still, if Pomeranz can build on his innings this year and be the guy he was in the first half going forward it's not a horrible trade.

 

Luckily, Buchholz and Erod have stepped it up lately. Pomeranz has been really good out of the pen in the past, perhaps he can be a weapon there in the playoffs. On the other hand, it would seem risky to throw him in that role without any recent experience right when every inning matters.

 

I don't think it's that big an issue, like you said, other pitchers have stepped up, and we're going to be shortening the rotation for the postseason anyhow. Looks like Price, Porcello and Buchholz of all people, with E-Rod as the #4 man if we need one. Buchholz seems to have saved his best for last, and the timing for his sudden surge of competence couldn't possibly be better.

 

But remember we didn't just get Pomeranz for this year. Next year and the year after, we still have control of this guy, and he'll have a year's experience as a full time SP under his belt and have a good idea how to train to be able to bear the workload better next season. The trade for Pomeranz wasn't a rental, it was an intermediate-term play to help us get to October and strengthen our rotation for the near future. And it was a move that I think in the end we'll be grateful for, he seems extremely talented, if he can get his arm fully stretched out for full season starting and I think with the right conditioning he can, others have done it (see also: Arroyo, Bronson), get a good offseason training program going and the pitcher has a good idea what to expect, he should be fine over the next 2 years, that's more important than these last couple months overall IMHO,

[Nick]

I don't think it's that big an issue, like you said, other pitchers have stepped up, and we're going to be shortening the rotation for the postseason anyhow. Looks like Price, Porcello and Buchholz of all people, with E-Rod as the #4 man if we need one. Buchholz seems to have saved his best for last, and the timing for his sudden surge of competence couldn't possibly be better.

 

But remember we didn't just get Pomeranz for this year. Next year and the year after, we still have control of this guy, and he'll have a year's experience as a full time SP under his belt and have a good idea how to train to be able to bear the workload better next season. The trade for Pomeranz wasn't a rental, it was an intermediate-term play to help us get to October and strengthen our rotation for the near future. And it was a move that I think in the end we'll be grateful for, he seems extremely talented, if he can get his arm fully stretched out for full season starting and I think with the right conditioning he can, others have done it (see also: Arroyo, Bronson), get a good offseason training program going and the pitcher has a good idea what to expect, he should be fine over the next 2 years, that's more important than these last couple months overall IMHO,

 

+1000

[kenmeister]

I don't think it's that big an issue, like you said, other pitchers have stepped up, and we're going to be shortening the rotation for the postseason anyhow. Looks like Price, Porcello and Buchholz of all people, with E-Rod as the #4 man if we need one. Buchholz seems to have saved his best for last, and the timing for his sudden surge of competence couldn't possibly be better.

 

"Sudden surge of competence"; nice phrasing. Buch has a chance to get his record to a respectable 10-10 on the year.

[moonslav59]

Here is the AL playoff schedule:

 

Wild Card Round

AL Wild Card Game: Oct. 4 (TBS)

 

ALDS

Game 1: Oct. 6 (TBS)

Game 2: Oct. 7 (TBS)

Game 3: Oct. 9 (TBS)

Game 4*: Oct. 10 (TBS)

Game 5*: Oct. 12 (TBS)

 

ALCS

Game 1: Oct. 14 (TBS)

Game 2: Oct. 15 (TBS)

Game 3: Oct. 17 (TBS)

Game 4: Oct. 18 (TBS)

Game 5*: Oct. 19 (TBS)

Game 6*: Oct. 21 (TBS)

Game 7*: Oct. 22 (TBS)

 

World Series

Game 1: Oct. 25 (FOX)

Game 2: Oct. 26 (FOX)

Game 3: Oct. 28 (FOX)

Game 4: Oct. 29 (FOX)

Game 5*: Oct. 30 (FOX)

Game 6*: Nov. 1 (FOX)

Game 7*: Nov. 2 (FOX)

 

*Game played if necessary

 

Our last game is October 2nd, and we probably will not have to use our top starters to secure our spot in the playoffs. That means our schedule may look like this:

 

Season ends OCT 2

 

ALDS: 6, 7, 9, 10 & 12

 

2 games, day off, 2 games, day off, 1 game

 

 

ALCS: 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22

 

One day off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games

 

 

WS: 25, 26, 28, 29, 30, Oct 1, 2

 

Two days off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games

 

The schedule shows that we may need only 3 starting pitchers at times and 4 at other times. At no point will we need 5 starters. With so many days off, we may not need a deep pen.

 

Most playoff teams go with 11-12 pitchers.

 

Could this be our pitching staff and first series roster?

 

SP1 Price

SP2 Porcello

SP3 Buchholz?

SP4 ERod

Closer Kimbrel

RP2 Uehara

RP3 Ziegler

RP4 Ross

RP5 Tazawa

RP6 Pomeranz

RP7 Abad (Scott? Barnes? Kelly? Wright?)

 

Assuming 11 pitchers, the rest of the roster could be...

 

C (2)- Leon, Hanigan? (Vaz or Holaday?)

1B (1) HanRam

2B (2) Pedroia, Holt

3B (2) Shaw, Hill

SS (2) Bogaerts, Hernandez

LF (2) Benintendi, Young

CF (1) Bradley

RF (1) Betts

DH (1) Ortiz

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

Here is the AL playoff schedule:

 

Wild Card Round

AL Wild Card Game: Oct. 4 (TBS)

 

ALDS

Game 1: Oct. 6 (TBS)

Game 2: Oct. 7 (TBS)

Game 3: Oct. 9 (TBS)

Game 4*: Oct. 10 (TBS)

Game 5*: Oct. 12 (TBS)

 

ALCS

Game 1: Oct. 14 (TBS)

Game 2: Oct. 15 (TBS)

Game 3: Oct. 17 (TBS)

Game 4: Oct. 18 (TBS)

Game 5*: Oct. 19 (TBS)

Game 6*: Oct. 21 (TBS)

Game 7*: Oct. 22 (TBS)

 

World Series

Game 1: Oct. 25 (FOX)

Game 2: Oct. 26 (FOX)

Game 3: Oct. 28 (FOX)

Game 4: Oct. 29 (FOX)

Game 5*: Oct. 30 (FOX)

Game 6*: Nov. 1 (FOX)

Game 7*: Nov. 2 (FOX)

 

*Game played if necessary

 

Our last game is October 2nd, and we probably will not have to use our top starters to secure our spot in the playoffs. That means our schedule may look like this:

 

Season ends OCT 2

 

ALDS: 6, 7, 9, 10 & 12

 

2 games, day off, 2 games, day off, 1 game

 

 

ALCS: 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22

 

One day off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games

 

 

WS: 25, 26, 28, 29, 30, Oct 1, 2

 

Two days off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games

 

The schedule shows that we may need only 3 starting pitchers at times and 4 at other times. At no point will we need 5 starters. With so many days off, we may not need a deep pen.

 

Most playoff teams go with 11-12 pitchers.

 

Could this be our pitching staff and first series roster?

 

SP1 Price

SP2 Porcello

SP3 Buchholz?

SP4 ERod

Closer Kimbrel

RP2 Uehara

RP3 Ziegler

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RP4 Ross

RP5 Tazawa

RP6 Pomeranz

RP7 Abad (Scott? Barnes? Kelly? Wright?)

 

Assuming 11 pitchers, the rest of the roster could be...

 

C (2)- Leon, Hanigan? (Vaz or Holaday?)

1B (1) HanRam

2B (2) Pedroia, Holt

3B (2) Shaw, Hill

SS (2) Bogaerts, Hernandez

LF (2) Benintendi, Young

CF (1) Bradley

RF (1) Betts

DH (1) Ortiz

 

 

 

 

In the pitching arena, what lefties do we have to get an out or two facing opponents lefties? Ross for sure and is Scott a better option than Abad? On the opposite side, is Kelly or Barnes a better option than Tazawa? Is Buchholz a better 3rd starting option than E-Rod? Tough decisions tempered by how these guys look in the next 9 games.

 

The lineup discussion at catcher with Leon still slumping and no other catcher hitting well, it would seem to be based on how good the defense will be. Leon is good in that regard. I don't think Hanigan is a guy I would put 2nd. Since some problem seems to exist with Vazquez, then Holaday seems the better backup to me. Holt, Young and Hernandez would make my playoff team but 3rd is where I have the most trouble. Shaw adds defensive flexibility but is not hitting very well and Hill is just plain bad as a hitter. Hate to waste a spot on a guy that can't really be a pinch hitter. With Moncada hopeless, we just don't seem to have a candidate than makes sense for the 13th position. I don't have an answer as the Sox are in a box on that one.

[Dojji]

Yeah, not seeing what Hill brings when we already have Holt and Hernandez. Seems a little redundant. What I'd love to have is a good pinch RUNNER. Maybe Marrero? If he adds that dimension and no one else really stands out, he might crack his way onto the playoff roster.

[sk7326]

I'm more cynical than you are. IMO other owners will hold their nose(s), make any trade that they think will benefit them the most, and hope for the best. I have ZERO faith in the principles of most owners.

 

I agree with you - but I am also sure that temporarily trades will cost the Padres a little bit more. But only temporarily.

[Nick]

Kelly is beginning to impress me. In 9 games in September, he WHIP is below 1.00, he has not allowed a run, he has 15 K's to 3 BB's in 11+ innings.

[Kimmi]

Kelly is beginning to impress me. In 9 games in September, he WHIP is below 1.00, he has not allowed a run, he has 15 K's to 3 BB's in 11+ innings.

 

There were many calling for him to be put in the pen since spring training. I was not one of the many. He seems to have found his niche though.

[moonslav59]

Before we traded for Kimbrel, I suggested we choose either Buchholz or Kelly as a candidate for closer. Obviously, the trade put that idea to bed, but using both in the pen did become a reality. Both actually have done very well.

 

I do think Kelly deserved a long look as a starter in April due to what he did at the end of 2015, but I hope he likes his new role and grows into it. He has tremendous stuff. As a RP'er he doesn't have to pace himself.

 

[Spudboy]

Most of Talksox was in agreement that Kelly's stuff profiled better as a reliever for the past two or so years.

 

No one on this page was prescient.

[cp176]

Most of Talksox was in agreement that Kelly's stuff profiled better as a reliever for the past two or so years.

 

No one on this page was prescient.

 

prescient!!! good word - just want you to know that I pay attention.

 

i think that there are people here now who claim to be able to see both the past as well as the future clearly. If only we could get one mulligan.

[Bellhorn04]

prescient!!! good word - just want you to know that I pay attention.

 

i think that there are people here now who claim to be able to see both the past as well as the future clearly. If only we could get one mulligan.

 

I used the word prescient here not long ago to describe sk7326's call that when Koji came back it would resolve a lot of the bullpen problems.

[Nick]

no doubt, Kelly's approach as a closer is much different than his pusillanimous approach as a starter.