Mookie?

[devildavid]

He will end up with an OPS in the top 3 Sox. 4th at worst.

I'll guess around .845.

 

What will his OBP and walk ratio be? OPS is not the best number to use to evaluate a leadoff hitter. He should be be hitting better now, not by the end of the season. I don't think a player should be utilized based on projections, but current performance.

[devildavid]

Maybe I'm holding Mookie to too high a standard because of how everyone gushes over him. Players like Shaw and JBJ are sometimes looked on as ones who will come down to earth, or regress. Mookie is always spoken of glowingly as one who is sure to succeed but is sometimes unlucky. I look at actual performance before I make judgements. Mookie is not playing at the same level as many on the team are. But for some reason, this fact can't be pointed out. Mookie is a decent player right now, but he really hasn't been deserving of getting the most plate appearances if you look at the actual results so far.

[User Name]

05/30

[Jasonbay44]

05/30

This.

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie's OPS over the last 3 weeks is close to 1.000. Farrell has done the right thing being patient and leaving him where he is.

[sk7326]

Maybe I'm holding Mookie to too high a standard because of how everyone gushes over him. Players like Shaw and JBJ are sometimes looked on as ones who will come down to earth, or regress. Mookie is always spoken of glowingly as one who is sure to succeed but is sometimes unlucky. I look at actual performance before I make judgements. Mookie is not playing at the same level as many on the team are. But for some reason, this fact can't be pointed out. Mookie is a decent player right now, but he really hasn't been deserving of getting the most plate appearances if you look at the actual results so far.

 

.288 BABIP which has been slowly catching up to his career norms. Walking a bit less than normal but not crazy. And somehow on a 5 win pace regardless. Bradley's streak and Bogaerts' MVP-level start make it look worse than it is.

[devildavid]

Mookie's OPS over the last 3 weeks is close to 1.000. Farrell has done the right thing being patient and leaving him where he is.

 

Again with OPS. What has his OBP and BB% been in the last 3 weeks? And more important what numbers are players such as JBJ an Bogaerts putting up? What does batting leadoff have to do with Mookie's performance? Could he not have put up similar numbers lower in the order? Would the team have been worse off wih him lower in the order?

[devildavid]

05/30

 

236 plate appearances.

[User Name]

Mookie Betts OPS May 30 2015: .693

Mookie Betts OPS October 4th 2015: .820

[User Name]

236 plate appearances.

 

Which is enough to judge exactly nothing.

[devildavid]

Which is enough to judge exactly nothing.

 

I think enough of the season has gone by to make reasonable judgements on this team and the players, both positive and negative.

[User Name]

Mookie Betts is batting .283/.342/.519 .861 over the last 28 days with a 13/9 K/BB ratio.

[devildavid]

Mookie Betts OPS May 30 2015: .693

Mookie Betts OPS October 4th 2015: .820

 

Mookie Betts 9/2/2015: .275/.319/.454/.773

[User Name]

So why exactly would the Sox replace Betts from the leadoff spot, and who would they replace him with?

 

Also, a problem with trying to judge leadoff hitters by their walk% is that it's hard to walk when pitchers are coming right after you throwing strikes to keep you off the bases. Have to swing. Not a lot of leadoff guys walk a lot.

[iortiz]

IMO other guy who can leadoff as well is JBJ. He hit and walk a lot..... AND hit with power. His line is simply insane. Right now he is a five tool player.

 

Hopefully he keeps this level.

[User Name]

I'd keep JBJ in the middle of the lineup.

[iortiz]

Checking out some projections, they are estimating that JBJ will end up something around 270/340/440, a natural leadoff profile.

 

The good "problem" that this team has right now is that everybody is hitting. JBJ could be a No. 3 or 4 hitter easily in other team, right now.

 

IMO this should the everyday L-up.

 

Mookie

Peddy

XB

Papi

HR

JBJ

Shaw

BS

Vazquez

[southpaw777]

Checking out some projections, they are estimating that JBJ will end up something around 270/340/440, a natural leadoff profile.

 

The good "problem" that this team has right now is that everybody is hitting. JBJ could be a No. 3 or 4 hitter easily in other team, right now.

 

IMO this should the everyday L-up.

 

Mookie

Peddy

XB

Papi

HR

JBJ

Shaw

BS

Vazquez

 

Yeah. Thats pretty much what theyve been sending out there. Its a solid lineup from top to bottom. Not really an easy out 1-9

[bosoxmal]

It's my impreession that Mookie does a lot of "thinking"; maybe tinkering is a better word. He does so many things on the field that the BA number is not worrisome. Who scores from first base on a swinging bunt?

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie leads the majors in runs scored and he's just outside the top 10 in RBI. He's doing OK.

[Spudboy]

I'd keep JBJ in the middle of the lineup.

 

I liked him in the 9 hole. That worked really well, I think.

 

But a guy who can hit consistently will be good anywhere. 6 or 7 is good too.

[sk7326]

I think enough of the season has gone by to make reasonable judgements on this team and the players, both positive and negative.

 

Takes about 600 PAs to actually start to hone on the guy's actual level ... which is inconvenient since it's time teams don't have. But 1/3 of the season is decidedly much too small.

[a700hitter]

Our offense and the order of our lineup is not a problem (even if we picked the names out of a hat). It is the pitching stupid.

[Spudboy]

Our offense and the order of our lineup is not a problem (even if we picked the names out of a hat). It is the pitching stupid.

 

Absolutely.

 

I am having a running debate with a friend on Facebook about changes the Sox may need to make to progress to the playoffs and WS.

 

He says we need Braun or Cargo to play left field.

 

Um, no! We need pitching!!!

[Bellhorn04]

Absolutely.

 

I am having a running debate with a friend on Facebook about changes the Sox may need to make to progress to the playoffs and WS.

 

He says we need Braun or Cargo to play left field.

 

Um, no! We need pitching!!!

 

Precisely.

[devildavid]

Mookie leads the majors in runs scored and he's just outside the top 10 in RBI. He's doing OK.

 

Runs scored and RBI are heavily influenced by team performance.

[Dojji]

But OBP aside, scoring runs is the #1 job of the leadoff guy, OBP is valuable because it leads to more opportunity to... score runs... betts has scored the most runs of anyone in the league this year so if you want to talk about his roleplaying ability, he's playing his role.

 

Betts gets around OBP by hitting a lot of leadoff XBH. Putting himself in scoring position instead of first base to make up for being on base less often. I wouldn't be against dropping him to a more RBI position, but if you want to talk about a leadoff guy, he's doing OK.

Edited May 31, 2016 by Dojji

[devildavid]

Takes about 600 PAs to actually start to hone on the guy's actual level ... which is inconvenient since it's time teams don't have. But 1/3 of the season is decidedly much too small.

 

By the time you get to 600 PA's it's too late to make any changes, as you noted. That's why you have to go with what you have now. Decisions made now impact long term results for both the team and the individual player. Mookie doesn't need to bat leadoff for the sake of his success nor for the success of the team. If he is going to succeed it will be based on how he utilizes his talent, not where he bats in the lineup.

[sk7326]

By the time you get to 600 PA's it's too late to make any changes, as you noted. That's why you have to go with what you have now. Decisions made now impact long term results for both the team and the individual player. Mookie doesn't need to bat leadoff for the sake of his success nor for the success of the team. If he is going to succeed it will be based on how he utilizes his talent, not where he bats in the lineup.

 

I would worry about Betts at the top of the lineup more for a lack of RBI chances than anything else. But the Red Sox have gotten so much mileage out of Bradley at the bottom of the order that Betts has had more chances to do something good.

 

I suggest alternative choices would not make much difference - stuff is clicking.

[Spudboy]

Runs scored and RBI are heavily influenced by team performance.

 

Yeah we all know this at Talksox.

 

You have a point about such a low OBP leading off. In a vacuum Mookie would be hitting lower.

 

However, as Bell has pointed out, Mookie, despite his low OBP and low BA, is getting on base at a sufficient pace to lead in runs scored and be among the leaders in RBI with this offense and batting order.

 

Why fix what works well enough when the benefits of the change would likely be negligible? Besides, we all know that Mookie is a better batter than what he has shown so far this season. He will improve.