Pablo Sandoval

[S5Dewey]

Could they just DFA him if he is not lights out in spring training?

 

I don't fully understand how demotions and roster moves work exactly. But my guess is that Paplo would not get picked up and could then be sent to Pawtucket and be removed from the 40 man.

 

Maybe I have my head in my ass?

 

Just when I think I understand how demotions and options work someone asks a question like this^^. :-(

 

My understanding (which has a 50/50 chance of being wrong) is that Sandoval's longevity gives him the right to refuse an assignment to Pawtucket. If he refuses to go to Pawtucket the Sox have the right to DFA him, and anyone who picks him up is then responsible for his contract. If no one picks him up the Sox are responsible for paying him while he sits on his ample ass at home watching games on tv and playing golf. (Of course once a player is DFA'd the club holding his contract has the right to try to trade him for 15 (?) days for whatever they can get for him, including another bad contract and/or salary relief.)

 

OTOH, if he DOES elect to go to Pawtucket the Sox still have to pay him but he doesn't have to be on the 40 man roster so his salary doesn't count toward the Luxury Tax.

[S5Dewey]

Nope. As a 5+ year vet, he can refuse the minor league assignment; the Sox would then either have the choice of keeping him on the 25 man roster or releasing him outright. If he's released, I'm pretty sure somebody else would take a shot with him for the major league minimum (~$500K) and the Red Sox would be on the hook for the difference in salary (which would count against the luxury tax cap).

 

Castillo and Craig don't have 5 years of service, which is why that move works on them.

 

I don't see anyway the Sox get out of this contract without swapping it for another bad one.

 

Thanks IRS. I wasn't aware of the Major League Minimum salary provision. Other than that I think we're on the same page and we couldn't both be wrong, could we? :-))

[FredLynn]

He's either in good enough shape to start, or he's be back in Ft Meyers.

They're not going to waste a roster spot on him, if he's unable to play.

 

Next year in spring training he will be on the roster. And as Dombrowski proved this year, if he is unable to earn the 3B job (or any other job), regardless of how much money he is earning, he will sit....somewhere. He will get a shot because he is untradeable.

[Kimmi]

While I agree the Sox would like him to bounce back, the emergence of tbe younger players like Shaw and the Killer B's has lessened the Sox financial needs to the point where he is no longer needed.

 

Also "Shaw and the Killer B [ee's]" is a great name for a rock band.

 

I don't disagree. I could see a scenario where Shaw is traded or becomes a bench player, Pablo mans 3B for a couple of months until Moncada is ready to take over the position, then Pablo is traded to a team in need of a 3B. We would likely have to eat part of the contract, but pretty much any scenario would be better than having him not rebound and having to eat all of the money.

[Kimmi]

If he is traded it will be for some teams bad contract. Or the Sox would have to eat a lot of the contract. The Sox have a lot of younger players who make very little making the second option a possibility. Don't see room now that the Sox have Moncada playing 3B.

 

If he could rebound, we could get more for him in trade or be able to eat less of his contract.

 

I can understand people not wanting him to be a member of our 25. It is still in the best interest of the team for Pablo to turn it around.

[Kimmi]

Well, 15 pounds is about the right pace to be at -45 by opening day next year.

 

15 pounds is significant even by itself. If ends up down 25-35 by opening day, it could make a big difference in his ability to win a spot on the team. I never wanted us to sign Pablo in the first place, but we have him now, and he's owed a boatload of money. I'd rather not piss it all away before knowing for sure if there is any redemption.

 

Thank you. This is pretty much my feeling on the matter.

[Kimmi]

They need to go over the scouting report that okayed his signing. The guy should be fired.....was Ben pushing it?

 

I have no way of knowing for sure, but I can almost guarantee you that Ben was not pushing this signing. It is not his MO.

[FredLynn]

Well, 15 pounds is about the right pace to be at -45 by opening day next year.

 

15 pounds is significant even by itself. If ends up down 25-35 by opening day, it could make a big difference in his ability to win a spot on the team. I never wanted us to sign Pablo in the first place, but we have him now, and he's owed a boatload of money. I'd rather not piss it all away before knowing for sure if there is any redemption.

 

I'm not buying the argument that with Moncada, we don't need any help at 3B/1B/DH. Sure, Shaw and HanRam have looked okay this year and very good in stretches, but neither is a sure bet to be a plus next year and both show strong numerical signs pointing to platoon status.

 

2016 splits:

Player vs RHP/ vs LHPs

Ortiz 1.090/ .813

Shaw .806/ .634

HRam .696/ 1.091

Young .734/ 1.042

 

2016 vs RHPs/vs LHPs

Ortiz 1.044/ .744

Shaw .778/ .793

HRam .708/ .888

Young .635/ .988 (4th best in MLB)

Pablo .733/ .465

Swihart .727/ .673

 

(It's clear we have to find someone to help mitigate the loss of Papi's offense vs RHPs. While Pablo is no where near a replacement for papi, he may be better vs RHPs than some of our other options- namely HanRam and Young.

 

Papi is retiring, yes. Adding Beni and Moncada does cause a squeeze on our bench, but it's also not a certainty that Moncada will start the year on the big club, and there's still a chance Beni could struggle enough to need some time at AAA to re-adjust (doubtful, but possible). Exceptional play by Beni in LF would could essentially cause the need to play Young at DH vs LHPs. This would further squeeze the 3b/1B/DH openings. We can safely count Travis out of the picture untila t least mid season 2017, if then. I doubt Swihart has a chance to squeeze anybody out of a 25 man roster spot until May or june of 2017 at the earliest, so we are left with this:

 

LF: Beni, Young (Swihart/Holt)

3B: Shaw, Moncada, Pablo (Hernandez/Holt)

1B: HanRam, Shaw (Pablo/Holt/Travis/Swihart?)

DH: Young/Pablo/Hanram (Moncada/Swihart)

 

We may start with Shaw at 3B, HanRam at 1B and maybe Pablo at DH vs RHPs and Young vs LHPs. If Pablo can field well, like he used to do, we could see Pablo at 3B vs RHPs/Shaw vs LHPs. We could see Shaw at 1B vs RHPs and HanRam vs LHPs and Hanram at DH vs RHPs with Young there vs lefties. Wec ould see hanRam sit vs some or many RHPs, or Shaw sit vs some or many LHPs, which could allow Moncada to squeeze into the picture or Pablo to play vs LHPs (doubtful).

 

Let's say Moncada wins a FT role, maybe we could see this:

 

POS vs RHP/vs LHP

3B: Moncada

1B: Shaw/Ram

DH: Pablo/Young

Maybe Moncada plays some DH, if he struggles in the field. Moncada also has hit RHPs 200-300 OPS points better than lefties, so maybe he plays vs righties, and Shaw plays 3B vs LHPs, so Hanram can play FT at 1B.

 

There's lots of scenarios, but I wouldn't count Pablo out of a role vs RHPs next year, especially if it takes Moncada a while to master the 3B position.

 

 

 

 

 

Farrell also said at the beginning of spring training that Pablo had lost 20 pounds during the offseason. Then he said recently that Pablo has lost 17 pounds. Given the fact that his first statement was a lie, I also do not believe his second statement.

[sk7326]

They need to go over the scouting report that okayed his signing. The guy should be fired.....was Ben pushing it?

 

1. Whomever it was is gone. Lucchino, Cherington whatever.

2. There was a bonafide case to signing him. The price was not wholesale ... but I understand the idea. Exceptional contact ability, a swing which sprayed the ball around and was built to do Wade Boggs like things with the Monstah. 29 years old - so you are getting more "prime" than you normally get via UFA. Defensively he was always solid before last season.

 

Really now you have to either release him and just live with the damage - or let him rehab and see if there is anything left.

[southpaw777]

Shaw lead MLB in 1B UZR/150 from 2015-2016 (650+ innings). He's also a much better hitter vs RHPs than hanRam.

 

I can't see HanRam playing 1B over Shaw vs RHPs, if Moncada wins the 3B job.

 

Maybe playing hanram at 1B vs LHPs will "keep his head in the game" enough to allow him to be a net plus.

 

I can't see Young sitting vs LHPs, so DH vs LHPs seems to be his spot to lose. Young has the 4th best MLB OPS vs LHPs over the past 2 years combined! Sitting him would be a crime. That means maybe HanRam can DH vs RHPs and play 1B vs LHPs, but with hanRams decline vs RHPs, maybe Pablo is a better choice vs righties.

 

 

Hanley is fine at 1b. Your idea to platoon him isnt warranted IMHO.

his numbers have gone down starting in 2015 due to his shoulder injury.

Hes a career 839OPS vs rHP. If you go look at his splits you will see he was just fine up until the shoulder injury last year. I think you are looking to deep into those numbers.

[sk7326]

Problem is Ramirez right now is not actually producing that well for a 1B. Now he has been fine given the production we get up the middle - but relative to position we have not gotten much out of 1B relative to peers.

[moonslav59]

Farrell also said at the beginning of spring training that Pablo had lost 20 pounds during the offseason. Then he said recently that Pablo has lost 17 pounds. Given the fact that his first statement was a lie, I also do not believe his second statement.

 

We'll know when we see the fotos or by next spring. Hopefully, Sox management will know before that.

 

We're not going to piss $19M x 3 years away without first making sure he's useless. At worst, he'll end up like Craig and Castillo or traded as we pay near full value of the contract (or swap for an equally bad contract).

 

This isn't really a big issue. I'm pretty sure Sox management is not counting on him to play a meaningful role on next year's 25 man roster, but that doesn't mean it's impossible for him to play his way onto the roster, even if as a Platoon vs RHPs at DH or 1B or possibly 3B, if he loses 35+ pounds.

 

I'm not saying he will lose weight. I'm not saying I think he will lose the weight, but there is a chance he does.

 

[moonslav59]

Problem is Ramirez right now is not actually producing that well for a 1B. Now he has been fine given the production we get up the middle - but relative to position we have not gotten much out of 1B relative to peers.

 

Hanley is 15th in WAR at 1B this year. His fielding is near the bottom. He may be better utilized as a DH next year as Shaw (the best UZR/150 1Bman in MLB from 2015-2016) moves yto 1B to make room for Moncada (in theory anyway).

[sk7326]

Hanley is 15th in WAR at 1B this year. His fielding is near the bottom. He may be better utilized as a DH next year as Shaw (the best UZR/150 1Bman in MLB from 2015-2016) moves yto 1B to make room for Moncada (in theory anyway).

 

I suspect that will be the direction ... I also see Shaw as very much a trade candidate - a young, controlled starter is very valuable (same thing with Bradley)

[greenwell]

Hanley is 15th in WAR at 1B this year. His fielding is near the bottom. He may be better utilized as a DH next year as Shaw (the best UZR/150 1Bman in MLB from 2015-2016) moves yto 1B to make room for Moncada (in theory anyway).

 

I agree with this. I like him as DH, and giving Shaw a rest occasionally vs lefties.

[Dojji]

I suspect that will be the direction ... I also see Shaw as very much a trade candidate - a young, controlled starter is very valuable (same thing with Bradley)

I don't see a need to rush Shaw out the door. He's going to be valuable off the bench even if Moncada does supplant him at 3B, and I'm for damn sure in no rush to hustle him out the door before Moncada has done so.

[sk7326]

I don't see a need to rush Shaw out the door. He's going to be valuable off the bench even if Moncada does supplant him at 3B, and I'm for damn sure in no rush to hustle him out the door before Moncada has done so.

 

He is too good to not start for somebody. Don't confuse "trade candidate" with "wanting someone to leave". Good players cost stuff. All I am doing is discussing some of that major league stuff.

[moonslav59]

A lot depends on whether we sign a big bat or not.

 

If not, I doubt we trade any corner IF'ers until we see what we have in Moncada, Pablo and maybe the rest of the year might help us determine how much we can count on HanRam vs righties and Shaw vs lefties.

 

Moncada has also seen some massive split disparities on the farm.

 

I'd hate to start him off as a platoon, but we may have to do that.

[moonslav59]

He is too good to not start for somebody. Don't confuse "trade candidate" with "wanting someone to leave". Good players cost stuff. All I am doing is discussing some of that major league stuff.

 

Exactly. We're not going to trade HanRam & Pablo for anything good. You have to give to get.

 

I doubt we trade Shaw, unless it's part of a bigger package that nets us a quality SP'er or a better corner IF'er.

[Spudboy]

Nope. As a 5+ year vet, he can refuse the minor league assignment; the Sox would then either have the choice of keeping him on the 25 man roster or releasing him outright. If he's released, I'm pretty sure somebody else would take a shot with him for the major league minimum (~$500K) and the Red Sox would be on the hook for the difference in salary (which would count against the luxury tax cap).

 

Castillo and Craig don't have 5 years of service, which is why that move works on them.

 

I don't see anyway the Sox get out of this contract without swapping it for another bad one.

 

Thanks.

[oldtimer]

Exactly. We're not going to trade HanRam & Pablo for anything good. You have to give to get.

 

I doubt we trade Shaw, unless it's part of a bigger package that nets us a quality SP'er or a better corner IF'er.

 

Are you saying Hanley is good enough to play first base or designated hitter for the Sox, but not good enough to trade, even if we eat half his salary?

[oldtimer]

Nope. As a 5+ year vet, he can refuse the minor league assignment; the Sox would then either have the choice of keeping him on the 25 man roster or releasing him outright. If he's released, I'm pretty sure somebody else would take a shot with him for the major league minimum (~$500K) and the Red Sox would be on the hook for the difference in salary (which would count against the luxury tax cap).

 

Castillo and Craig don't have 5 years of service, which is why that move works on them.

 

I don't see anyway the Sox get out of this contract without swapping it for another bad one.

 

The way you describe the situation, it is a catch 22. Either we play him or we eat his contract against the salary cap. Ugh!. Still, if we want to win, we will be better off with good young players and just part company with him. The days of laying out huge long term contracts have resulted in generally poor results, not only for the Sox but for other teams as well. Porcello seems to be the exception and worth the money being paid, but he was a younger pitcher with good years ahead.

[moonslav59]

Are you saying Hanley is good enough to play first base or designated hitter for the Sox, but not good enough to trade, even if we eat half his salary?

 

I do not think we could trade HanRam for a 2 bats and 5 baseballs, unless we pay part of his salary. How much of his $22M x 2 years left is the question.

 

That doesn't mean he has no value to us or an opponent through trade.

 

I see his value vs RHPs on a serious decline, and since there are much more righty SP'ers than lefties, I don't see his overall value as being that high.

 

His fielding at 1B is subpar. Shaw is one of baseballs best fielding 1Bman from 2015-2016, and hits RHPs better than HanRam. So now I see HanRam as a DH, and a DH who is weak vs RHPs is not a plus value to me. I guess he could play 1B vs LHPs, if Shaw keeps struggling vs LHPs.

 

HanRam would pout, if we platooned him by sitting him half or more of the time, so before we'd even mention a platoon, we might try to trade him by paying close to half his salary..

 

If we don't sign anybody and Moncada does not start on the 25 man roster, then HanRam may be a better option vs RHPs than anybody else (Holt, Pablo, Hernandez, Young). We won't cut HanRam like we might cut Pablo. I'm not writing HanRam off next year, even vs RHPs.

 

The real squeeze happens if any of these three things happen:

 

1) We sign a DH or corner IF'er who is better than HanRam overall or significantly better vs RHPs.

 

2) Moncada makes the 25 man roster and starts at 3B (or even if just at 3B vs RHPs).

 

3) Pablo gets in shape and makes the 25 man roster. (He has been better than HanRam vs RHPs recently, even as a jiggling blob!)

 

Again, these are the givens:

 

Bogey at SS.

Betts in RF.

JBJ is CF.

Pedey at 2B (maybe Moncada can give him some rest at 2B here and there-- Pedey DH some?)

Leon/Vaz/Swihart at catcher

Young plays vs LHPs at DH or maybe LF some asall OF'ers are rested

Shaw plays vs RHPs

HanRam plays vs LHPs

 

Highly probable:

Beni in LF full time

 

Probable:

Moncada makes the 25 man roster at some point before May 31st (3B?)

Holt stays the super sub

 

Possible:

Sandoval makes the 25 man roster early in 2017.

Swihart makes the 25 man roster as catcher2, LF'er 3 or corner IF'er/DH?

 

Unknown:

Hernandez, Rutledge, Travis

 

With Papi gone, I see 3B, 1B and DH as the positions in question with a lot of options.

 

I start with Young at DH vs LHPs and HanRam at 1B vs LHPs. Now, it gets tricky: If I had to guess right now, based on what we know, I think we see this:

.....v RHP/ v LHP

DH Ram**/ Young

1B Shaw/Ram

3B Monc/ Shaw-Monc

 

**DH vs RHPs could be Pablo, if HanRam continues to struggle vs RHPs and Pablo looks sharp in spring.

 

Note: Moncada has a 200-300 point split disparity in the minors this year. He's much better vs RHPs, so maybe Shaw plays 3B vs some or most leftie.)

 

There's a lot that can happen between then and now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Nick]

"HanRam would pout, if we platooned him by sitting him half or more of the time, so before we'd even mention a platoon, we might try to trade him by paying close to half his salary.. " Moon

 

My thought on that would be 1) it may pay half of Encarnacion's first 3 year's of salaray or 2) pay for a strong reliever (say Ziegler for 3 years)...second option would not add any more payroll cost....

[moonslav59]

"HanRam would pout, if we platooned him by sitting him half or more of the time, so before we'd even mention a platoon, we might try to trade him by paying close to half his salary.. " Moon

 

My thought on that would be 1) it may pay half of Encarnacion's first 3 year's of salaray or 2) pay for a strong reliever (say Ziegler for 3 years)...second option would not add any more payroll cost....

 

I'm not against trading HanRam. I wanted to last winter, and I even said that if he hits over .900 in 2016, I'd trade him in a heartbeat, before his stock fell again.

 

The issue is what can we get for him. If we can get $12M in salary relief, that may be all well and good, but the fanatsy of getting Encarnacion on at 3 or maybe even a 4 year deal is just that- fantasy. This is his big payday. The guy has been over .900 more years in a row than Papi, but he may not age like Papi. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have him on our team, but with paying HanRam's portion, probably writing off Pablo, Castillo and Craig for the remainder of their deals and Encarnacion at $25M+ x 5 or 6 years or maybe even 7 years, would kill out budget for many years.

 

I'm not for giving soon to be 37 year old, Ziegler a 3 year deal either. I'm not even sure I want him for 1 or 2 years at what he'll get. Experience is a plus in the pen, but there are other RP'ers out there.

 

[oldtimer]

I'm not against trading HanRam. I wanted to last winter, and I even said that if he hits over .900 in 2016, I'd trade him in a heartbeat, before his stock fell again.

 

The issue is what can we get for him. If we can get $12M in salary relief, that may be all well and good, but the fanatsy of getting Encarnacion on at 3 or maybe even a 4 year deal is just that- fantasy. This is his big payday. The guy has been over .900 more years in a row than Papi, but he may not age like Papi. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have him on our team, but with paying HanRam's portion, probably writing off Pablo, Castillo and Craig for the remainder of their deals and Encarnacion at $25M+ x 5 or 6 years or maybe even 7 years, would kill out budget for many years.

 

I'm not for giving soon to be 37 year old, Ziegler a 3 year deal either. I'm not even sure I want him for 1 or 2 years at what he'll get. Experience is a plus in the pen, but there are other RP'ers out there.

 

 

We are on the same page on Hanley. Trade if it makes economic sense, but don't pick up another aging star for a long term contract. I think you are correct in assuming Encarnacion will want at least 5 years at high dollars. Let some other team make that mistake.

 

Koji is probably all through and Ziegler has a unique style and can still get people out. If he would take a 2 year deal, I would support that. Try to envision the bullpen next year. Tazawa is aging but should still have a spot, Kimbrel is erratic but we have no better closer. Will Smith come back from TJ? Abad has good stuff if he settles in. Ross has done well for us. Barnes has the arm but needs to conquer his wildness. Is Buccholz gone or do we keep him as a long reliever? We also have Kelly with great velocity and a lot of movement. Will he learn to pitch well enough to stay with the team? Then there is Workman who might fit. If we resign what we have and develop a couple of 40 man roster people we might be okay. I am not against picking up an even better RP asset if we can get him at a fair price.

[Wade Boggs]

I like Encarnacion, he's a great hitter. I don't want to be tied down to him for that much time. I would take a chance on Beltran on a one year deal maybe with a club opp. IMO Castillo AND Craig are lost causes. Z won't be coming back . I think he said he was going back to the D-backs, so I don't think you have to worry about that. With Koji and Z moving on, maybe Taz, you need to get bullpen help. Would you take a shot on David Robertson. (2 years 24 M left). Just him. Not Sale, Not Q.. lol. Do not want to see them move any BLUE CHIP PROSPECTS. The second level , yes.

[a700hitter]

The beauty of having a competitve team is that we did not have to start an offseason thread in August. I guess old habits die hard.

[mvp 78]

I wouldn't trade any more prospects for relievers. You can make a case that you'd do it for your closer, but not sure you'd do it for a set up guy. Should be able to fill in bullpen with FA and minor league guys. I think Hembree should have a much bigger part next year.

[moonslav59]

We are on the same page on Hanley. Trade if it makes economic sense, but don't pick up another aging star for a long term contract. I think you are correct in assuming Encarnacion will want at least 5 years at high dollars. Let some other team make that mistake.

 

Koji is probably all through and Ziegler has a unique style and can still get people out. If he would take a 2 year deal, I would support that. Try to envision the bullpen next year. Tazawa is aging but should still have a spot, Kimbrel is erratic but we have no better closer. Will Smith come back from TJ? Abad has good stuff if he settles in. Ross has done well for us. Barnes has the arm but needs to conquer his wildness. Is Buccholz gone or do we keep him as a long reliever? We also have Kelly with great velocity and a lot of movement. Will he learn to pitch well enough to stay with the team? Then there is Workman who might fit. If we resign what we have and develop a couple of 40 man roster people we might be okay. I am not against picking up an even better RP asset if we can get him at a fair price.

 

Taz is a FA, so I don't give him or Uehara any higher chance of being here next year than other FA RP'ers. I think we start with this:

 

Closer: Kimbrel

RP2/back-up closer: _________

RP3: C Smith

RP4: ________

RP5: Barnes

Lefty RP6/7: Ross/Abad/Elias/ converted SP'er? Owens/Johsnon

Righty RP6/7: Kelly/Hembree/Workman/NRamirez/Martin

 

We may see Ziegler and Taz back, but there are other FA RP'ers out there and trade candidates as well. I think we could get by with one really good RP'er acquisition, since Smith should be back, but if we just get one, we better boost the rotation.

 

FA List: John Axford, Joaquin Benoit, Jonathan Broxton, Buddy Carlyle, Brett Cecil, Santiago Casilla

Aroldis Chapman, Jesse Chavez, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow

Wade Davis *, Michael Dunn, Dana Eveland, Neftali Feliz, Jason Grilli *, Luke Hochevar

Greg Holland, J.P. Howell

Kenley Jansen, Casey Janssen, Kevin Jepsen, Brandon League

Boone Logan, Javier Lopez, Brian Matusz

Mark Melancon, Joe Nathan, Josh Outman, Yusmeiro Petit, Cesar Ramos

Francisco Rodriguez *, Sergio Romo, Marc Rzepczynski, Fernando Salas, Sergio Santos

Joe Smith, Craig Stammen

Drew Storen, Josh Tomlin, Jordan Walden *

Brad Ziegler