Red Sox Outfield 2016

[SoxHop]

I don't think on this one, I actually know (I train with one of the best ones around from time to time and have done my rounds with nutritionists, including him): The nutritionist/personal trainer (an accredited one without BS broscience) would run you 500/1,000 dollars, depending on the schedule and how personalized do you want the sessions to be. In reality, someone with a limited budget could get a personalized assesment, with macronutrient/calorie adjustment every two weeks and 5/week training sessions for less than 300 dollars. You'd pay the initial estimate (500-1000) if you want a guy to caddy you every step of the way (you know, the life coach sort).

 

The chef is a whole other deal, because of differing specialties, and of course, how "famous" he is. You can get a good one making and pre-packaging all of your meals for 500/month plus the food obviously. Go top of the line guys, and you're looking triple that, but of course we're talking tailor made, top-of-the-line stuff that adjusts exactly to the regimen you'll follow.

 

10,000 dollars (including food) would have had Pablo drop the weight (40 pounds, let's say) in three months if he was willing to do it.

 

If he was doing those two a day workouts and had the fitness trainer like reported, it would have been easy to drop 30 to 40 pounds in a few months. You could almost eat like a horse on a good workout regiment like that as long as the food was healthy and still drop pounds.

 

It blows my mind really.

 

The initial red flag was that first low roller in spring training he missed. There was something very telling in that.

 

And that money you mention should be considered chump change to him. Even if he gave up a million a year to a person to keep him in check would allow him to get another contract after this one and make millions more. But.... instead....... ride the pine..... kiss the career good bye.

 

I'm good with benching him. He has done better since the Shaw challenge has been introduced. We aren't just talking spring training, we are talking a whole season of being bad the year before.

 

If it's just the weight, Pablo can turn it around quickly. A couple months you can change you body immensely. I hope he does for the Sox sake.

[Spudboy]

Oh, you mean he's not working hard enough at it. That would imply a problem with his conditioning and work ethic.

 

If I can drop the weight on a budget and limited time, so can Pablo with his millions in the middle of a six month vacation.

 

What I was saying is that everyone ( not just Kimmi ) is reporting that he does "all the work" every day. I am not saying that his efforts are enough to lose weight and get his range and skills back.

 

I say DFA!

 

 

And I certainly know how much effort you put into remodeling your body. It's no joking matter with guys like us. This is why while I do not dislike Pablo ( I don't know him ), I do resent him. He has no excuses and no one but himself to blame for his demotion to the pine. Until it dawns on his fat ass that this is it for him, and until he makes the effort required to be IN SHAPE, he does not deserve any more "Chances".

[Spudboy]

On a side note: I did it by bugging a guy I met while at Western. I created my own diet plan (with his help of course, if I knew what I was doing, I wouldn't be fat) and followed it to the letter. A month and a half later I started training hard. I buy my own food (on a very limited budget), cook my own food, and train alone, with no "life coach" on my ass to tell me what I have to do and when.

 

That's the reason why it's so mind boggling that Pablo showed up to camp in the shape that he did (he has dropped weight before, so it''s not like he can't), lied about the directives the FO gave him, and had that smug f***ing attitude with anyone who questioned his weight. Holy s***, f*** that guy.

 

Amen Bruh.

[a700hitter]

On a side note: I did it by bugging a guy I met while at Western. I created my own diet plan (with his help of course, if I knew what I was doing, I wouldn't be fat) and followed it to the letter. A month and a half later I started training hard. I buy my own food (on a very limited budget), cook my own food, and train alone, with no "life coach" on my ass to tell me what I have to do and when.

 

That's the reason why it's so mind boggling that Pablo showed up to camp in the shape that he did (he has dropped weight before, so it''s not like he can't), lied about the directives the FO gave him, and had that smug f***ing attitude with anyone who questioned his weight. Holy s***, f*** that guy.

In other words, your weight didn't regress to the mean all by itself. It took discipline and effort.

[Kimmi]

I just can't agree. He was the worst fulltime player in MLB last uear. It was more than a slump.

 

It is precisely because he was the worst full time player last year that you would expect regression. Players just don't typically go from being a roughly 3 WAR player to being a -2 WAR player overnight. It just doesn't happen.

[Kimmi]

Anyone care to address the very valid points that Kory brought up in his article rather than making assumptions and taking cheap shots?

[Kimmi]

Here's another thing.

 

Before these ridiculous decisions to bench Pablo and Castillo, one of our team's strengths was the bench. So what do the Sox do? They weaken the bench considerably to maybe get marginal improvement at 3B and LF.

 

Moves cannot be made in a vacuum? Since when is it a good idea to fill a hole that quite possibly isn't even there (and if it is there, we quite possibly aren't improving upon it) by creating another hole?

[mvp 78]

Anyone care to address the very valid points that Kory brought up in his article rather than making assumptions and taking cheap shots?

 

Castillo has never been an effective Major Leaguer. Expecting him to "reverse course" is a fool's errand. If the Sox believed he was an everyday player, they'd ride it out with him.

 

The problem with Pablo is that his defense is horrendous and he is more out of shape than ever. It's hard to reverse course there unless he starts to lose the weight.

[mvp 78]

Here's another thing.

 

Before these ridiculous decisions to bench Pablo and Castillo, one of our team's strengths was the bench. So what do the Sox do? They weaken the bench considerably to maybe get marginal improvement at 3B and LF.

 

Moves cannot be made in a vacuum? Since when is it a good idea to fill a hole that quite possibly isn't even there (and if it is there, we quite possibly aren't improving upon it) by creating another hole?

But now they have Pablo on the bench, a former WS MVP. He'd be a great pinch hitter especially since you're expecting regression. If Pablo hits when given the chance, he'll earn his job back. Having his agent bitch about the situation only makes it worse for him though.

 

Castillo can play all 3 OF positions very well. Not sure how it really hurts the bench.

[mvp 78]

It is precisely because he was the worst full time player last year that you would expect regression. Players just don't typically go from being a roughly 3 WAR player to being a -2 WAR player overnight. It just doesn't happen.

 

Until you can admit Pablo's a little out of shape, these conversations will go nowhere.

[jung]

"Reverse course" is a good metaphor for Pablo....much like the Titantic that was simply too big for its rudder and could not turn before crashing into an iceberg.

[Kimmi]

Castillo has never been an effective Major Leaguer. Expecting him to "reverse course" is a fool's errand. If the Sox believed he was an everyday player, they'd ride it out with him.

 

The problem with Pablo is that his defense is horrendous and he is more out of shape than ever. It's hard to reverse course there unless he starts to lose the weight.

 

That's fine if you don't "expect" either of them to play well. That's not the point. If you don't give them a chance, then you know there is no possibility of them reversing course.

 

What is the harm in giving them 1-2 months? If the team is doing that badly, pull the plug on them sooner. But if the team is doing that badly, I would also suspect it would be because of many other issues in addition to those two.

[sk7326]

Here's another thing.

 

Before these ridiculous decisions to bench Pablo and Castillo, one of our team's strengths was the bench. So what do the Sox do? They weaken the bench considerably to maybe get marginal improvement at 3B and LF.

 

Moves cannot be made in a vacuum? Since when is it a good idea to fill a hole that quite possibly isn't even there (and if it is there, we quite possibly aren't improving upon it) by creating another hole?

 

I usually agree with your work - but I do not get this. I mean seriously, the 25 man roster did not change. How is the bench weakened if Sandoval is there as a backup 1B/3B. If Sandoval is a 2 WAR player clearly it improved.

 

The 3B move is not that crazy - Shaw has been a better baseball player than Sandoval since 2015. It's not a spring based fluke. Now I agree with you, it's hard for Sandoval to be worse than he was last year, but so much of that was defensively - which is influenced by physical skills which may have diminished, who knows.

 

I think you overread the Castillo thing. I read it as Farrell taking the question off the table in a way which suits him. Gives Castillo a chance to work at this without pressing. There is going to be huge improvement in LF this year - simply because Hanley was so bad there last season. This team will be better with Castillo doing what he is capable of - but he needs to get there, and perhaps he is the sort of guy who does not want to struggle publicly day after day. It's Farrell's job to know what will help each player in this regard.

[Kimmi]

Until you can admit Pablo's a little out of shape, these conversations will go nowhere.

 

I understand that his weight is hindering his range. I've stated that many times. That said, he has always been fat. It's not like he gained 150 pounds and went from being svelte to fat in one season.

[Kimmi]

But now they have Pablo on the bench, a former WS MVP. He'd be a great pinch hitter especially since you're expecting regression. If Pablo hits when given the chance, he'll earn his job back. Having his agent bitch about the situation only makes it worse for him though.

 

Castillo can play all 3 OF positions very well. Not sure how it really hurts the bench.

 

Holt is a premium supersub. He will be an average left fielder. Shaw can play multiple positions as well as pinch hit and possibly pinch run.

 

Neither Pablo nor Castillo are going to benefit or improve from irregular playing time.

[Kimmi]

I usually agree with your work - but I do not get this. I mean seriously, the 25 man roster did not change. How is the bench weakened if Sandoval is there as a backup 1B/3B. If Sandoval is a 2 WAR player clearly it improved.

 

The 3B move is not that crazy - Shaw has been a better baseball player than Sandoval since 2015. It's not a spring based fluke. Now I agree with you, it's hard for Sandoval to be worse than he was last year, but so much of that was defensively - which is influenced by physical skills which may have diminished, who knows.

 

I think you overread the Castillo thing. I read it as Farrell taking the question off the table in a way which suits him. Gives Castillo a chance to work at this without pressing. There is going to be huge improvement in LF this year - simply because Hanley was so bad there last season. This team will be better with Castillo doing what he is capable of - but he needs to get there, and perhaps he is the sort of guy who does not want to struggle publicly day after day. It's Farrell's job to know what will help each player in this regard.

 

The 25 man roster did not change in terms of "clogging up" the roster. It did change in terms of roles. If Pablo is a 2 WAR player but is only playing 20% of the games, that is 1 1/2 wins we are leaving on the bench. Now you can argue that the same thing would happen if Shaw is a 2 WAR player, but IMO, Shaw would get many more at bats as a bench player than Pablo would. I can't see the Sox putting Pablo in at 1B.

 

I have nothing against Shaw. I am sure he will do a good job there. I understand that he played well last year, but regardless, he is still largely unproven at the big league level, especially as a 3rd baseman.

 

I agree with most of what you say about Castillo, but he is not going to "get there" sitting on the bench.

[Bellhorn04]

Some numbers on Castillo's offensive slump:

 

Last 32 games (30 starts) in 2015: 185/222/235

This spring 57 AB's: 175/242/193 (1 extra-base hit)

 

It's worth noting he has the 3rd most AB's of any player this spring. They wanted him to show something on offense and he showed them nothing.

[a700hitter]

I understand that his weight is hindering his range. I've stated that many times. That said, he has always been fat. It's not like he gained 150 pounds and went from being svelte to fat in one season.

He is bigger than ever -- the biggest that he has been. He has literally passed the tipping point on the weight issue. You can't play the game at that weight, and jockey is also out for him.

[mvp 78]

He is bigger than ever -- the biggest that he has been. He has literally passed the tipping point on the weight issue. You can't play the game at that weight, and jockey is also out for him.

 

He went from being fat to obese.

[cp176]

I'm a little confused with whatever the plan for Castillo might be. Nothing else the club has done from signings to players playing seems even unusual to me. All moves looked like common sense moves. Castillo looked like a lock to start in left now basically he is on the outside looking in. I get the fact that he has not hit this spring but he can field his position. Do people think that Holt represents our left fielder going forward. He is a great utility player for sure but really - our starting left fielder. If Young is going to only hit against lefties, I can't imagine that this is the end of what will happen in left. Castillo is what 29/30 now? Times a-waistin for him I'm afraid. I guess that in his case it does make sense to me that he starts in left at least initially to really see what he has. By the Red Sox not doing this, is it a sign that they realize that the signing was not a good one? Are they done with him really? His story is not Pablo's. FTR, I'm ok with them being done with him, but I don't think Holt is our answer in left.

[Dojji]

If Pablo is a 2 WAR player

 

Is it generally a good idea to expect a player to improve by 3 WAR in a single season? Pablo was effectively a win BELOW replacement last year. I do not understand how you're operating under the assumption that he'll improve his WAR score by 2.9 when there is no physical or on field justification for that level of improvement.

 

If they thought that Sandoval was likely to put in 2 wins above replacement, he would not have been himself replaced. Maybe by a dynamic stud 3b prospect who blew down the door and forced the team to make room for him, but certainly not by a bench 1B who would have been on the roster anyway.

 

I think it's fair to say that judging by their actions, the team disagrees strenuously with your assessment that 2 WAR from Sandoval is a possibility worth having a conversation about.

Edited April 3, 2016 by Dojji

[cp176]

ok then - holt it is

[Kimmi]

Is it generally a good idea to expect a player to improve by 3 WAR in a single season? Pablo was effectively a win BELOW replacement last year. I do not understand how you're operating under the assumption that he'll improve his WAR score by 2.9 when there is no physical or on field justification for that level of improvement.

 

If they thought that Sandoval was likely to put in 2 wins above replacement, he would not have been himself replaced. Maybe by a dynamic stud 3b prospect who blew down the door and forced the team to make room for him, but certainly not by a bench 1B who would have been on the roster anyway.

 

I think it's fair to say that judging by their actions, the team disagrees strenuously with your assessment that 2 WAR from Sandoval is a possibility worth having a conversation about.

 

When said player is a career 3 WAR a year player, with one fluky year at -2 WAR, then yes, it's reasonable to think that he can regain that. It's called regression.

 

If he had been a career -2 WAR player, then expecting him to suddenly be a +2 WAR would be unreasonable.

[Kimmi]

I'm a little confused with whatever the plan for Castillo might be. Nothing else the club has done from signings to players playing seems even unusual to me. All moves looked like common sense moves. Castillo looked like a lock to start in left now basically he is on the outside looking in. I get the fact that he has not hit this spring but he can field his position. Do people think that Holt represents our left fielder going forward. He is a great utility player for sure but really - our starting left fielder. If Young is going to only hit against lefties, I can't imagine that this is the end of what will happen in left. Castillo is what 29/30 now? Times a-waistin for him I'm afraid. I guess that in his case it does make sense to me that he starts in left at least initially to really see what he has. By the Red Sox not doing this, is it a sign that they realize that the signing was not a good one? Are they done with him really? His story is not Pablo's. FTR, I'm ok with them being done with him, but I don't think Holt is our answer in left.

 

Holt should not be the everyday player in LF. He should be our utility player, a role in which he excelled.

 

I believe the plan is for Holt and Young to platoon in LF, with Castillo playing for JBJ against tough lefties. In other words, Castillo is not currently slated to get many at bats.

 

Who knows though? These management decisions are one big cluster**** right now.

[Dojji]

but it's not a fluky year. it's a year brought on by a health problem Pablo has been at risk of his entire career that sprung on him last year and is by all evidence still with him. Until he gets his weight under control, I'd need to convinced that letting him play his way back into shape wasn't just asking for another injury. At least playing off the bench will give him more time to recover between gigs, and considering that a heavier guy racks up additional wear and tear for the same work, it seems to me he might need that.

[iortiz]

I'm going to quote a couple of things to back up some of my early statements from FG:

 

Perhaps one of the most controversial aspects of sabermetrics is the way in which WAR is used. Given the nature of the calculation and potential measurement errors, WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate.

 

League-average WAR rates vary. An average full-time position player is worth about 2 WAR, while average bench players contribute much less (typically between 0 and 1 WAR). Average starting pitchers also are worth around 2 WAR, while relief pitchers are considered superb if they crack +1 WAR.

 

For position players and starting pitchers, here is a good rule-of-thumb chart:

 

Scrub 0-1 WAR

Role Player 1-2 WAR

Solid Starter 2-3 WAR

Good Player 3-4 WAR

All-Star 4-5 WAR

Superstar 5-6 WAR

MVP 6+ WAR

[User Name]

You posted this in the wrong thread, but quick couple of points:

 

There is a measure of variability inherent to the WAR calculation, but that variability is minor and doesn't limit its value in direct player-to-player comparison, especially speaking in broader terms.

 

And the real problem here is that you were quoting WAR values without even using FG WAR before, or an assesment that connects to the actual value WAR assigns to players, now you're using FG WAR as the benchmark when another formula was being used in direct criticism of Porcello. I noticed both these issues (Lack of understanding of the inherent difference between formulas, and how WAR is actually calculated, because the offensive, defensive and pitching measurements don't fluctuate as much as you think they do).

 

If you use FG WAR as a benchmark (and it's just a benchmark), a win is worth just North of seven million dollars (win value calculations have a bit of year-to-year variability, but this is expected given the nature of baseball economics). The point Kimmi keeps trying to make (and real life reflects this) is that pitchers with Porcello's profile (Shark, Leake) are making similar money for more years than what Porcello is making. Is he overpaid? Hell yeah, they overpaid in money to slash a couple years off the contract. Does this mean he can't provide enough value to justify the contract? Nope. He hasn't thrown a single pitch with the actual extension money attached to him, and given market dynamics and past history, you can safely assume he'll be at least relatively valuable, if not as effective as his contract says he should be now, but with the current salary escalation, he might be as soon as next year, even if he reverts to just career averages.

 

In general, this is a circular discussion anyways. You don't like Porcello, and you have made that abundantly clear. The problem is that you not liking him and him not living up to his contract are entirely different things. The former is a certainty, the latter we will have to wait and see so we can come to an actual answer.

[sk7326]

Holt should not be the everyday player in LF. He should be our utility player, a role in which he excelled.

 

I believe the plan is for Holt and Young to platoon in LF, with Castillo playing for JBJ against tough lefties. In other words, Castillo is not currently slated to get many at bats.

 

Who knows though? These management decisions are one big cluster**** right now.

 

I think the plan is to get Castillo work. Key (and this is the human being part of managing) is whether they think Castillo benefits from just getting the job, or he might feel less pressure in a lower profile role. It might be the latter. That is the bet at least. If this will help him stop pressing, it might work.

 

I respect Sandoval's track record vs Shaw - but Shaw has been a better player the last season. Again, Sandoval might still get work - the question becomes what does Farrell do to start the season. Sandoval and Ramirez were both awful last season, but clearly Hanley's way forward was much clearer. Now can Sandoval turn into the middle class Wade Boggs the Sox were projecting. (in terms of how he swung and such - obviously not the patience) Last year did not have the sense of a weird outlier with him - the ceiling was never that high.

[jung]

I think the plan is to get Castillo work. Key (and this is the human being part of managing) is whether they think Castillo benefits from just getting the job, or he might feel less pressure in a lower profile role. It might be the latter. That is the bet at least. If this will help him stop pressing, it might work.

 

I respect Sandoval's track record vs Shaw - but Shaw has been a better player the last season. Again, Sandoval might still get work - the question becomes what does Farrell do to start the season. Sandoval and Ramirez were both awful last season, but clearly Hanley's way forward was much clearer. Now can Sandoval turn into the middle class Wade Boggs the Sox were projecting. (in terms of how he swung and such - obviously not the patience) Last year did not have the sense of a weird outlier with him - the ceiling was never that high.

 

I think Pablo will get more work than people are anticipating. I think he will get at least one game on the year's first road trip and maybe more than one. In an event I think they want to give him some opportunity to do something positive before the team comes home to a Fenway in full throat looking to tell him just what they think about things....especially since his agent did that "open mouth....insert foot" thing.

[Dojji]

I think you're right Jung, it's a reasonale idea, I think the team would consider letting Pablo have a game before the home opener.