Red Sox Outfield 2016

[jacksonianmarch]

I am surprised nobody has really made any sort of comment about the sox outfield and how it very well could be a significant weak link outside of Betts.

 

Starting with Rusney, per fangraphs he has a 0.4WAR in half a season. He showed a total inability to draw walks and a genuine lack of power. This from a guy who is going into the season as the starting RFer. His defense also left much to be desired, as his defensive rating was negative, yet his overall UZR/150 was solid. He did have a really solid month of August, which made a lot of sox fans happy about what might be to come, only to crash down to earth with a pitiful September, OPS'ing .555. I get that this was his first full season and all, and he does have some solid tools, but as a starting corner OFer, he leaves a lot to be desired. His range and arm are good in RF, but he makes boneheaded plays out there. He doesn't really hit for power. He doesn't really steal bases. He doesn't walk at all. I understand that he did it all in Cuba, but he better start doing it here, or he'll be on the bench right quick.

 

Jackie Bradley Jr is a defensive whiz, a true plus plus defender and a "should be" shoe in for GG consideration on a yearly basis. And his overall numbers offensively were very solid for him as well, with an OPS of .833. But looking deeper at that OPS, his August was an insanely ridiculous Barry Bonds on roids month. An OPS of 1.163. He had half his HR, 40% of his walks, 53% of his RBI and 53% of his runs on the season in that one month. Outside of that month, he slashed .190/.272/.366, which is pretty bad. Which JBJ will they get? I was on the bandwagon of dealing him while his value was up, but if he could even hit to a .750OPS and play his level of D, he'd be a borderline AS guy. Regardless, expecting big power out of him is unlikely, and based on his track record and his numbers outside of one otherworldly month, there is definitely a big reason for concern for this guy offensively.

 

Mookie Betts is the star in the OF. I liked his resilience, after struggling for a bit, he came back and dominated. People seem to think his natural progression is as a 30HR guy, but I think he is a safe 20-20 player who will make good contact, take more walks as he learns the game more, hit for a high average, play at least average D and pace your team from the top of the lineup. He is the only guy I think you can assuredly look at and say he will be an offensive force in the OF.

 

In essence, you have one budding star, one guy who has shown next to nothing on both sides of the ball and one defensive whiz who had one amazing month which bloated his overall numbers. Maybe it all works out and all 3 play well, or maybe you have one star and two slugs on the lineup card prompting a mid season deal.

 

And before anyone brings up Chris Young, that guy can only hit lefties. Hence, he will be a platoon guy with Bradley. But Bradley actually mashed lefties last yr to the tune of a .306/.390/.528 OPS. Young wont be in there replacing the righties Rusney and Betts. So his place in the lineup is puzzling unless JBJ shows his stats last yr were a fluke.

[Station 13]

They're going for a defensive OF first with this group, and brought in Chris Young to platoon with Ortiz possibly. Oriz struggles vs lefties for a long stretch. I doubt Farrell wants Young in LF for 50 games a season.

 

JBJ will be okay if he pops 15HR with his defense. He will eventually hit, he has always hit in the minors, and shown glimpses of it in the bigs.

 

This off-season was rich in OF free agents, too bad they're stuck with a bunch of stiffs that either can't hit, can't field, or both.

[jacksonianmarch]

Station, JBJ doesn't need to hit 15HR. And based on his history, it is unlikely he could pop 15HR. If he OPS'd .750+, he'd be a top notch OFer. The problem is, outside of his insane August, he is a below replacement level hitter. That's the big question here. Can he hit for a full season, or will he be below the Mendoza line

[Station 13]

15HR is not a lot, especially within this division. A couple of multi homer games, it adds up fast. JBJ can hit the ball very far if he times it correctly. I think 15 is very doable for him, he hit like half of his 2015 HR in August.

 

His walk rate was over 10% last season, better than Betts. So he definitely has the ability to lay off pitches. It's just he's missing pitches within the strikezone by a lot. That shouldn't happen. He got yo-yoing around the last 18 months, let's see what a full season out of him.

 

He is an extremely useful player, and that glove is special.

[jung]

In part JBJ missed a good deal because he still had that horrible swing until finally rediscovering his college swing. The other reason he missed a good deal is because he was constantly swinging for the fences with that horrible swing to boot. He is not a natural power hitter leaving many flies balls at the warning track even when he did hit it hard last year. Swinging as hard as you can all the time means you are going to miss a good deal ahd Feneay RF is pretty big.

 

I would rather see JBJ stay focused on becoming a good all around hitter at the ML level and if he can accomplish that then maybe try to bring some power back into his game. All by way of saying that if a real opportunity presents itself then fine...swing for the fences JBJ. But based on his result last year....I would prefer to see much less of that as he tries to pick up his swing recovery from where it was at the end of the year.

 

He did in my estimation accomplish quite a bit last year. Hopefully it is a springboard to enough output at the plate to support his defense. It won't take much.

[cp176]

I too am concerned over what we might get out of outfielders initially this year. They still represent a big ? mark to me but going forward I am not at all concerned. I believe that Andrew Benintendi is going to be a long time fixture in our outfield or someone elses. A potential all-star. I also know all about the pitfalls of moving players to quickly through the system but we have 2 big exceptions in Moncada and Benintendi. Huge years with respect to both Castillo and JBJ. They will be hearing footsteps soon if they don't get it going early.

[Spudboy]

I have expressed concern about the OF several times.

 

 

I'm confident that Betts will continue to produce and improve.

 

As much as I love JBJ he still has not been able to hit consistently at the MLB level. I believe ( maybe just hope ) that he does hit consistently but until he does he will remain a question mark.

 

Castillo has been a punching bag for me. He is athletic and from what I have read and heard he works hard at improving. Never the less, he does make bonehead plays and lacks refinement at the plate.

 

I've said these things in some form or another several times.

 

The Sox OF is a question mark and along with a weak to mediocre rotation, and questions about 3rd and 1st, cause for me to be suspect of the Sox chances to be a playoff team this year.

[a700hitter]

I have expressed concern about the OF several times.

 

 

I'm confident that Betts will continue to produce and improve.

 

As much as I love JBJ he still has not been able to hit consistently at the MLB level. I believe ( maybe just hope ) that he does hit consistently but until he does he will remain a question mark.

 

Castillo has been a punching bag for me. He is athletic and from what I have read and heard he works hard at improving. Never the less, he does make bonehead plays and lacks refinement at the plate.

 

I've said these things in some form or another several times.

 

The Sox OF is a question mark and along with a weak to mediocre rotation, and questions about 3rd and 1st, cause for me to be suspect of the Sox chances to be a playoff team this year.

We should get some good platoon play from Young.

[User Name]

As has been said, Young really protects against offensive problems form JBJ, but Castillo is major question mark.

[Jasonbay44]

If Bradley plays his usual defense and has a .330-350 OBP with decent power (10+ home runs), I'd be fine with that. I think Castillo is a lot more of a worry, and I'm not really sure how I feel about him or what to expect.

[Station 13]

Castillo is at an age that's suppose to be his peak. He's not going to get much better if at all than he already is. This signing stinks.

[Spudboy]

Castillo is at an age that's suppose to be his peak. He's not going to get much better if at all than he already is. This signing stinks.

 

This is a possibility. He needs to get a fair shake before we conclude that he is a bust.

[Northern Star]

Castillo was an unnecessary signing.

[User Name]

As Spud say, he needs to get a chance before we conclude he's a bust. If he comes out and lights it up, I bet you'll be the first one on his bandwagon.

[jacksonianmarch]

Young protects JBJ against lefties, a situation he strangely thrived in in 2015. And for his career, he has an 80 point bump vs lefties, although that is likely skewed by his gaudy 2015. Young is ABYSMAL vs righties. He has a 137 point point OPS bump when facing a lefty over the last 3 seasons and last yr it was a 300 point bump. Young protects the lineup vs lefty pitchers. That's about it

[User Name]

You know that, using logic (stay with me here), JBJ's platoon issues are going to normalize. If he's going to struggle badly, he will do so against LHP.

[jacksonianmarch]

They very well may. Then again, there are always those strange players who excel in weird splits that just don't make sense. Regardless, I think Young takes a lot of PT from JBJ initially unless Rusney proves to be a liability. Do the sox have any top flight OF prospects on the cusp? If they do, this might be a good yr to check them out. I think Rusney is a bust to be totally honest

[NativeBostonian]

Station, JBJ doesn't need to hit 15HR. And based on his history, it is unlikely he could pop 15HR. If he OPS'd .750+, he'd be a top notch OFer. The problem is, outside of his insane August, he is a below replacement level hitter. That's the big question here. Can he hit for a full season, or will he be below the Mendoza line

People always get that way about JBJ. He has a good month, and they forget he was garbage for 90% of the season. We'll all see if he can maintain the good hitting he showed the last month of last season.

[rician blast]

Not only are there the usual questions about JBJ, but let us not forget Castillo is unproven as well. This OF group can either be very good or very bad, collectively. On the upside, at least Hanley won't be out in LF butchering the position.

[Dojji]

I would have loved to pick up a nice stable middle of the pack COF this offseason. I think we're going to have problems, even if the final numbers look good, because of how many of our outfielders are just plain young.

[Bellhorn04]

I would have loved to pick up a nice stable middle of the pack COF this offseason. I think we're going to have problems, even if the final numbers look good, because of how many of our outfielders are just plain young.

 

And one of them is just plain Chris Young.

[Dojji]

Young and the Younglings. Lovely.

[Spudboy]

I'm sort of with Dojji on this. Young is a platoon hitter. I think an OF er that could hit from both sides would of been nice.

 

But whatever!

[Kimmi]

Scoring is down across baseball, which puts a premium on defense. That's the look this team is going for, at least in the OF and up the middle. Shaw is reportedly going to be taking fly balls in LF as possible insurance for Castillo.

 

I personally think Chris Young was a really good pick up.

[Northern Star]

Young and the Younglings. Lovely.

 

[Behindenemylines]

If Bradley plays his usual defense and has a .330-350 OBP with decent power (10+ home runs), I'd be fine with that. I think Castillo is a lot more of a worry, and I'm not really sure how I feel about him or what to expect.

 

Agree. JBJ doesn't have to hit like he did in August to have a positive effect on the Sox.

[Dojji]

You still need to produce a few runs no matter how good your defense is. You can't defend against the home run ball. The corner outfielder spots are usually the best places to hide a run producing bat. If we don't have that, and we're already also weak on the infield corners, we may have some seriously persistent problems getting men across home plate.

[User Name]

Then the problem isn't JBJ, who's in center, it's Castillo.

[Spudboy]

JBJ is in center? When was this announced? I thought that Betts was penciled in there.

 

Also, I believe it is unrealistic at this point to expect JBJ to have an OBP near .350. I'd expect .320-.330 at best.

 

Who knows?

[User Name]

Farrell said a while ago they're switching JBJ over to center, with Betts moving to right.