Span Poll: Can 2015 be salvaged for the Boston Red Sox ?

[Northern Star]

*Also, yes better not come at the expense of a boatload of prospects for Hamels.

[Northern Star]

I think you all know how I voted.

 

And you guys are still really depressing.

 

Did you vote for throwing in the towel?

[jd98]

I was going to vote yes because 8 games out of division, 7 out of wildcard, with 3.5 months to go certainly seems doable. Then I looked at the numbers closer and decided it was a looooong shot, so I was going to vote no. But I can't give up in mid-June, so I didn't vote.

 

What it would take-- You have to go back to 2009 for less than 88 wins to make playoffs, so I'm using 88. That's 60-36 the rest of the way, or 62.5% winning percentage. Cardinals are only team currently winning more than 60%. Over an entire season that would be 101 wins. Even the most optimistic people did not see this team as a 100 win team. Hard to believe they can sustain that pace for 3.5 months.

Edited June 17, 2015 by jd98

[Kimmi]

I voted yes, so I think we are in agreement on this one. However, I don't think it will happen by regressing to the mean. We are at a critical juncture. Moves need to be made soon to turn things around.

 

I think all of us believed all along that in season moves would likely have to be made, even if we weren't playing as poorly as we have been. That said, regressing to the mean would help a lot.

[Kimmi]

*Also, yes better not come at the expense of a boatload of prospects for Hamels.

 

I would agree with this. I would not sacrifice the future in hopes of making the playoffs this year. Even if we were in first place, I would not sacrifice the future to go for it this year. That does not mean that we shouldn't make any trades. Just make trades that don't hurt the long term outlook of the team. Trading Iglesias is a good example of that.

[Kimmi]

It doesn't matter whether you like him or not. He is a stud at closing, and it is not even debatable.

 

This season, he is posting his best numbers thus far. A ridiculous 1 ERA. and 100 SV%.

 

Let me put this in context. Mo has a 21.9 WAR from 1997 to 2006 (10 Y) when he began to SV a lot of games (43). Pap? 19.1 WAR in the last 10 and still a half of a season remaining. As I said, He is in Mariano's highway and earning every penny.

 

Actually, he has not earned his paycheck. He will have been worth about $40 mil at the end of this year. Don't get me wrong. I loved Papelbon and I think he is a good closer, so this is not meant to bash him. It's just that the contract that the Phillies gave him is insane.

 

Since 2012 when his contract with the Phillies started, he is 10th in WAR among relief pitchers, and would likely be a few spots lower if some of the other relievers had pitched all 4 years. None of the other relievers is making $13 mil/year. Robertson is the next highest paid guy making $10 mil this year, and his contract was given 4 years later than Papelbon's was.

 

The point is, relief pitching is not the area in which to hand out big contracts.

 

BTW, Koji is one of the guys with better WAR than Papelbon in that 4 year period.

[mvp 78]

Pap currently can't hit 90 on a favorable gun. No thanks.

[iortiz]

Actually, he has not earned his paycheck. He will have been worth about $40 mil at the end of this year. Don't get me wrong. I loved Papelbon and I think he is a good closer, so this is not meant to bash him. It's just that the contract that the Phillies gave him is insane.

 

Since 2012 when his contract with the Phillies started, he is 10th in WAR among relief pitchers, and would likely be a few spots lower if some of the other relievers had pitched all 4 years. None of the other relievers is making $13 mil/year. Robertson is the next highest paid guy making $10 mil this year, and his contract was given 4 years later than Papelbon's was.

 

The point is, relief pitching is not the area in which to hand out big contracts.

 

BTW, Koji is one of the guys with better WAR than Papelbon in that 4 year period.

 

Nope, he actually has. But you are not making the right approach.

 

Thing is that Papelbon has been consistent and durable throughout all these years. Aside Mo, who else has this track record as closer? Who else? Again...10 Y of consistency and durability. You do not get that in trees.

 

When Papelbon signed with PHI, he had posted a 13.9 WAR after 6 years of service as closer. Again, How many CLOSERS at the time had that track record aside Mo who was making in year basis aprox. what Pap has been making in the last 4 years (And do not even let me talk about inflation)? This is why they paid what they paid.

 

On the other hand while I like WAR, you have to take it with a grain of salt. Look, in the end you are paying a closer to post one thing and only one: Save a game. Nothing more, nothing less. It doesn't matter if he throws hard (FB). It does't matter if he is lucky (BABIP, LOB%). It really doesn't matter as long as he saves you in the last inning. Look at 2011 Valverde. He posted a 100% SV% and he only got 0.8 WAR. Why? because he posted a 8.3 K/9 which is not bad but not great. But once again he wasn't consistent. Koji is a one-hit wonder. Without 2013, he is basically a nobody in terms of WAR. Thing with WAR is that it considers FIP, and FIP considers Ks. Pap's K/9 has diminished since he left BOS, yes (although this year has improved significantly once again, it is at 10.5 K/9) but his SV% and ERA has been outstanding, even in that down year in 2013 when posted an ERA below 3 (when he was adjusting his repertory, as Pap said).

 

BL, He was paid to save games and he has been doing so, very good.

Edited June 17, 2015 by iortiz

[Palodios]

The point is, relief pitching is not the area in which to hand out big contracts.

 

BTW, Koji is one of the guys with better WAR than Papelbon in that 4 year period.

 

Normally I agree with this. Relief pitchers are always a crapshoot. It was an awful contract that he could only meet its value, but never exceed it. That being said, he's performed well for almost 4 year, and did everything you could have asked of him.

[FenwayFaithful]

The Red Sox are now 28-39. To get to 88 wins, the Red Sox will have to win 60 of their final 95 games for a win % of 0.6316. That's a pace of 102.3 wins over the course of a 162-game season. The most number of wins by a team last year was 98 by the Angels. For those who still believe, I salute you. Edited June 18, 2015 by FenwayFaithful

[a700hitter]

As frustrating as the hitting has been, improving the pitching is paramount. A team with the worst pitching will not be successful no matter how good its hitting. Our hitting has been showing signs of life lately. In a post steroid age, good pitching is the key. Just last night 6 pitchers threw quality starts and lost their games : Carlos Martinez, Kershaw, Danks, Urena, Baumgarner, and Zimmerman. Additionally, Hector Santiago went 5 innings giving up only 2 runs and got the Loss. A quality start is often not enough and we don't get enough quality starts. The first step to getting better -- improve the garbage pail pitching. Edited June 18, 2015 by a700hitter

[Kimmi]

Normally I agree with this. Relief pitchers are always a crapshoot. It was an awful contract that he could only meet its value, but never exceed it. That being said, he's performed well for almost 4 year, and did everything you could have asked of him.

 

I agree that he has pitched well.

[gojohn99]

There's NO way this team can play at a .632 winning percentage the rest of the season.

 

The Red Sox are now 28-39. To get to 88 wins, the Red Sox will have to win 60 of their final 95 games for a win % of 0.6316. That's a pace of 102.3 wins over the course of a 162-game season. The most number of wins by a team last year was 98 by the Angels. For those who still believe, I salute you.

[Bellhorn04]

Our next 10 games are against the Birds, Rays and Jays, 3 teams that have been beating us up. If we can win 6 or 7 of these games there will be some hope. If we lose 6 or more we will look like toast.

[SoxnCycles]

Our next 10 games are against the Birds, Rays and Jays, 3 teams that have been beating us up. If we can win 6 or 7 of these games there will be some hope. If we lose 6 or more we will look like toast.

 

Yup, the Sox will know if they're sellers or buyers by the 4th.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox need to play .650 ball to make the playoffs. They're not good enough

[Bellhorn04]

The sox need to play .650 ball to make the playoffs. They're not good enough

 

Playing .615 ball would give them 87 wins. That might be enough this year.

[a700hitter]

Playing .615 ball would give them 87 wins. That might be enough this year.

As presently constituted, this team will be lucky to play .500 ball the rest of the way. More likely they wil collapse down the stretch and lose more than 90 games again. If they want to have any chance at all of sniffing competitive baseball, they wil need to make some significant moves. If they don't make moves soon, they will be toast and their only hope will be having a Joe Hardy moment.

 

The lack of roster moves to this point is beginning to make me think that the owners are writing this season off and that they will rebuild this team under new management after cleaning house.

 

When the season started, I expected that at best we could play .500 ball and stay with the pack until they obtained some in season reinforcements. I am never comfortable with that strategy, because you find yourself where we are if some things go wrong. This doesn't shock me at all. It does disappoint me.

[Bellhorn04]

As presently constituted, this team will be lucky to play .500 ball the rest of the way. More likely they wil collapse down the stretch and lose more than 90 games again. If they want to have any chance at all of sniffing competitive baseball, they wil need to make some significant moves. If they don't make moves soon, they will be toast and their only hope will be having a Joe Hardy moment.

 

The lack of roster moves to this point is beginning to make me think that the owners are writing this season off and that they will rebuild this team under new management after cleaning house.

 

I think you're right, they're not going to make any moves - unless the team plays much better over the next month. That's what they're praying for.

 

And if the team continues to suck as a unit, making a big move or two would probably be useless.

[Bellhorn04]

Off topic here, but for you Papelbon fans, I just read a rumor that the Cubs are interested in him.

[a700hitter]

Off topic here, but for you Papelbon fans, I just read a rumor that the Cubs are interested in him.

 

They must be looking to really stack their pen. They just signed Soriano.

[sk7326]

As presently constituted, this team will be lucky to play .500 ball the rest of the way. More likely they wil collapse down the stretch and lose more than 90 games again. If they want to have any chance at all of sniffing competitive baseball, they wil need to make some significant moves. If they don't make moves soon, they will be toast and their only hope will be having a Joe Hardy moment.

 

The lack of roster moves to this point is beginning to make me think that the owners are writing this season off and that they will rebuild this team under new management after cleaning house.

 

When the season started, I expected that at best we could play .500 ball and stay with the pack until they obtained some in season reinforcements. I am never comfortable with that strategy, because you find yourself where we are if some things go wrong. This doesn't shock me at all. It does disappoint me.

 

I think management was targeting above .500, which was reasonable. The best offense in the AL combined with a middle of the road run prevention would have gotten you there. They have failed on both counts (and clearly the run prevention includes both pitching and defense)

 

On the bright side, the team has started to find some things that will work. Betts, Pedroia and Holt make a solid set of tablesetters, and that is as big a driver for offensive consistency as anything.

[Palodios]

The Sox need to win the next three series. If they suddenly go 7-3 in that stretch, we're looking at a 38-43 team that's probably about 6 games back on the division.

 

The team is healthy, the offense is starting to click, Rodriguez is a huge boost. Trading for that ace might push them forward. Personally, I think they should blow it up, but the next 3 series are going to determine the direction.

[mvp 78]

I think management was targeting above .500, which was reasonable. The best offense in the AL combined with a middle of the road run prevention would have gotten you there. They have failed on both counts (and clearly the run prevention includes both pitching and defense)

 

On the bright side, the team has started to find some things that will work. Betts, Pedroia and Holt make a solid set of tablesetters, and that is as big a driver for offensive consistency as anything.

 

For the past 30 days the rotation has been exactly middle of the pack with a 4.00 ERA.

[sk7326]

The Sox need to win the next three series. If they suddenly go 7-3 in that stretch, we're looking at a 38-43 team that's probably about 6 games back on the division.

 

The team is healthy, the offense is starting to click, Rodriguez is a huge boost. Trading for that ace might push them forward. Personally, I think they should blow it up, but the next 3 series are going to determine the direction.

 

I am always in both directions here - fans pay too much money to blow it up willy nilly - especially since a lot of these failures seem very fixable. But yeah if this week does not go well, the reasons to chase are just not there. I'd be willing to deal Sandoval regardless - the hot corner is where Boston's org strength is.

[jad]

I think management was targeting above .500, which was reasonable. The best offense in the AL combined with a middle of the road run prevention would have gotten you there. They have failed on both counts (and clearly the run prevention includes both pitching and defense)

 

On the bright side, the team has started to find some things that will work. Betts, Pedroia and Holt make a solid set of tablesetters, and that is as big a driver for offensive consistency as anything.

 

With that payroll their target was "above .500"? That makes no sense. A record like that would have been a reasonable goal at half what they's paying for this dismal season.

[SoxnCycles]

With that payroll their target was "above .500"? That makes no sense. A record like that would have been a reasonable goal at half what they's paying for this dismal season.

 

You're ignoring the part about getting additional pitching help at the trade deadline.

[iortiz]

With that payroll their target was "above .500"? That makes no sense. A record like that would have been a reasonable goal at half what they's paying for this dismal season.

The strategy was horrible since day one. They built a horrible pitching staff. A lot of question marks on the field as well. Now seems to be too late.

[a700hitter]

The strategy was horrible since day one. They built a horrible pitching staff. A lot of question marks on the field as well. Now seems to be too late.

Israel, be careful, calling the strategy and pitching staff horrible can be interpreted as a personal insult by those who disagree with you.

[iortiz]

Israel, be careful, calling the strategy and pitching staff horrible can be interpreted as a personal insult by those who disagree with you.

 

I still do not understand why but in the land of the lord you have black sheeps as well.